Risk factors and management for early and late intrahepatic recurrence of solitary hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Prognostic significance of early and multiple recurrences after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), postoperative recurrence remains high. This study aimed to evaluate the recurrence patterns and prognosis of HCC after curative hepatectomy.

METHODS

Among 352 patients with primary HCC who underwent initial hepatectomy between January 2002 and December 2022, 151 with recurrence were assessed for the relationship between recurrence pattern and prognosis.

RESULTS

The early recurrence group (within 6 months postoperatively; n = 38) had significantly higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (p = 0.002), des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP; p = 0.004) levels and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (p < 0.001), larger tumor size (p < 0.001), higher incidence of multiple tumors (p = 0.002) and lower overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001) than the late recurrence group (> 6 months postoperatively; n = 113). The tumor size (p = 0.013) and BCLC stage (p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for early recurrence within 6 months in multivariate analysis. The multiple recurrence group (intrahepatic multinodular recurrence or distant metastasis; n = 89) had significantly lower prognostic nutritional index (p = 0.026), larger tumor size (p = 0.017), lower incidence of liver cirrhosis (p = 0.03) than the single recurrence group (single nodule recurrence; n = 62). The multiple recurrence group, especially patients with ≥ three intrahepatic nodules and distant metastases, had lower postoperative OS (p < 0.001) and shorter time to recurrence (p < 0.001) than the single recurrence group. When the patients were classified into three groups: late recurrence with one or two tumors (Group A; n = 74), early recurrence or three or more tumors or distant metastasis (Group B; n = 54), and early recurrence with three or more tumors or distant metastasis (Group C; n = 23), OS was significantly lower in Groups B and C than Group A (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with early recurrence within 6 months after surgery and three or more recurrence nodule or distant metastasis exhibited poor prognosis after initial recurrence, and they should be carefully followed up.

A nomogram model for early recurrence of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinomas after radical hepatectomy

Background

To identify the risk factors and construct a predictive model for early recurrence of hepatitis B virus(HBV-)- related hepatocellular carcinomas(HCCs) after radical resection.

Data and methods

A total of 465 HBV-related HCC patients underwent radical resections between January 1, 2012 and August 31, 2018.Their data were collected through the inpatient information management system of the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China. Survival and subgroup analyses of early recurrence among male and female patients were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves. The independent risk factors associated with early postoperative tumor recurrence were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Based on these independent risk factors, a risk function model for early recurrence was fitted, and a column chart for the prediction model was drawn for internal and external validation.

Results

A total of 181 patients developed early recurrences, including 156 males and 25 females. There was no difference in the early recurrence rates between males and females. Tumor diameters>5cm, microvascular invasion and albumin level<35 g/L were independent risk factors for early recurrence. A nomogram for the early recurrence prediction model was drawn; the areas under the curve for the model and for external verification were 0.638 and 0.655, respectively.

Conclusion

Tumor diameter>5 cm, microvascular invasion, and albumin level<35 g/L were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The prediction model based on three clinical indicators could predict early recurrence, with good discrimination, calibration, and extrapolation.

Diffusion-based virtual MR elastography for predicting recurrence of solitary hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

To explore the capability of diffusion-based virtual MR elastography (vMRE) in the preoperative prediction of recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to investigate the underlying relevant histopathological characteristics.

METHODS

Between August 2015 and December 2016, patients underwent preoperative MRI examination with a dedicated DWI sequence (b-values: 200,1500 s/mm2) were recruited. The ADC values and diffusion-based virtual shear modulus (μdiff) of HCCs were calculated and MR morphological features were also analyzed. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors associated with tumor recurrence. A preoperative radiologic model and postoperative model including pathological features were built to predict tumor recurrence after hepatectomy.

RESULTS

A total of 87 patients with solitary surgically confirmed HCCs were included in this study. Thirty-five patients (40.2%) were found to have tumor recurrence after hepatectomy. The preoperative model included higher μdiff and corona enhancement, while the postoperative model included higher μdiff, microvascular invasion, and histologic tumor grade. These factors were identified as significant prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) (all p < 0.05). The HCC patients with μdiff values > 2.325 kPa showed poorer 5-year RFS after hepatectomy than patients with μdiff values ≤ 2.325 kPa (p < 0.001). Moreover, the higher μdiff values was correlated with the expression of CK19 (3.95 ± 2.37 vs. 3.15 ± 1.77, p = 0.017) and high Ki-67 labeling index (4.22 ± 1.63 vs. 2.72 ± 2.12, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The μdiff values related to the expression of CK19 and Ki-67 labeling index potentially predict RFS after hepatectomy in HCC patients.

Risk factors, patterns, and outcome predictors of late recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection: A large cohort study with long-term follow-up results

BACKGROUND

Late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection significantly influences long-term patient survival outcomes, and yet it remains understudied. This study aims to explore the risk factors and patterns of late recurrence and predictors of subsequent outcome.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study analyzed 1,701 consecutive patients who achieved a disease-free survival period exceeding 2 years after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between 2001 and 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with late recurrence and death after recurrence were conducted using Cox's models.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 60.2 years, with 76.8% being male. During a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 653 patients (38.4%) experienced late recurrence, with median time to recurrence being 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.7-6.0). Factors such as age >60, chronic hepatitis C, cirrhosis, high albumin-bilirubin grade, absence of family history, multiple tumors, satellite nodules, alpha-fetoprotein levels <400 ng/mL, and minor hepatic resection were identified as risk factors for late recurrence. Among patients with late recurrence, 131 (20.1%) underwent surgical treatment, 272 (41.7%) received radiofrequency ablation, and 27 (4.1%) exhibited extrahepatic lesions. A higher-high albumin-bilirubin grade, recurrent tumor >3 cm, and nonsurgical treatment emerged as predictors of death after late recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Over one-third of patients who remain disease-free for more than 2 years postresection will experience late recurrence during subsequent follow-up. For 2-year disease-free survivors, risk factors for late recurrence differ from early recurrence. Treating underlying hepatitis is of paramount importance, given its association with both the risk of late recurrence and survival outcomes post-recurrence.

Magnetic resonance elastography as a preoperative assessment for predicting intrahepatic recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is a noninvasive tool for diagnosing hepatic fibrosis with high accuracy. We investigated the preoperative clinical and imaging predictors of intrahepatic recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and evaluated MRE as a predictor of intrahepatic recurrence.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 80 patients who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with two-dimensional MRE and curative resection for treatment-naïve HCC between May 2019 and December 2021. Liver stiffness (LS) was measured on the elastograms, and the optimal cutoff of LS for predicting intrahepatic recurrence was obtained using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. An LS above this cutoff was defined as MRE-recurrence. Preoperative imaging features of the tumor were assessed on MRI, including features in the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System and microvascular invasion (MVI). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences were compared using the log-rank test. Using a Cox proportional hazards model, we conducted a multivariable analysis to investigate the factors affecting recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 32 months (range, 4-52 months), thirteen patients (16.3%) developed intrahepatic recurrence. ROC analysis determined an LS cutoff of ≥4.35 kPa to define MRE-recurrence. The 4-year RFS rate was significantly higher in patients without MRE-recurrence than in those with MRE-recurrence (93.4% vs. 48.9%; p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, MRE-recurrence (Hazard ratio [HR], 5.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-23.1) and MVI (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.0-11.3) were independent predictors of intrahepatic recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients without MRE-recurrence had significantly higher RFS rates than those with MRE-recurrence. MRE-recurrence and MVI were independent predictors of intrahepatic recurrence in patients after curative resection for HCC.

The role of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization following repeated curative resection/ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma with early recurrence: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) following repeated resection/ablation for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of adjuvant TACE following repeated resection or ablation in patients with early recurrent HCC.

METHODS

Information for patients who underwent repeated surgery or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for early recurrent HCCs (< 2 years) at our institution from January 2017 to December 2020 were collected. Patients were divided into adjuvant TACE and observation groups according to whether they received adjuvant TACE or not. The recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between the two groups before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

Of the 225 patients enrolled, the median time of HCC recurrence was 11 months (IQR, 6-16 months). After repeated surgery or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for recurrent tumors, 45 patients (20%) received adjuvant TACE while the remaining 180 (80%) didn't. There were no significant differences in RFS (P = 0.325) and OS (P = 0.072) between adjuvant TACE and observation groups before PSM. There were also no significant differences in RFS (P = 0.897) and OS (P = 0.090) between the two groups after PSM. Multivariable analysis suggested that multiple tumors, liver cirrhosis, and RFA were independent risk factors for the re-recurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Adjuvant TACE after repeated resection or ablation for early recurrent HCCs was not associated with a long-term survival benefit in this single-center cohort.

Proliferative hepatocellular carcinomas in cirrhosis: patient outcomes of LI-RADS category 4/5 and category M

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) category 4/5 and category M (LR-M) of proliferative hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in cirrhotic patients and evaluate their impacts on prognosis.

METHODS

This retrospective multi-reader study included cirrhotic patients with single treatment-naïve HCC ≤ 5.0 cm who underwent contrast-enhanced CT, MRI, and subsequent hepatic resection within 2 months. The percentages of CT/MRI LR-4/5 and LR-M in proliferative and non-proliferative HCCs were compared. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the association of LI-RADS categories (LR-4/5 vs. LR-M) and pathologic classification (proliferative vs. non-proliferative) with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Subgroups of patients with proliferative and non-proliferative HCCs were analyzed to compare OS and RFS between LR-4/5 and LR-M.

RESULTS

Of the 204 included patients, 38 were classified as having proliferative HCC. The percentages of LR-M were higher in proliferative than non-proliferative HCC on both CT (15.8% vs. 3.0%, p = 0.007) and MRI (26.3% vs. 9.6%, p = 0.016). Independent of pathologic classification, CT and MRI LR-M were significantly associated with poorer OS (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.58, p = 0.013, and HR = 6.45, p < 0.001) and RFS (HR = 3.66, p = 0.005, and HR = 6.44, p < 0.001) than LR-4/5. MRI LR-M was associated with significantly poorer OS (p ≤ 0.003) and RFS (p < 0.001) than MRI LR-4/5 in both proliferative and non-proliferative HCCs.

CONCLUSIONS

This multi-reader study showed that the percentages of LR-M were significantly higher in proliferative than non-proliferative HCCs. CT/MRI LR-M was significantly associated with poor OS and RFS, independent of the pathologic classification of proliferative versus non-proliferative HCCs.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

CT and MRI LI-RADS category M can be clinically useful in predicting poor outcomes in patients with proliferative and non-proliferative hepatocellular carcinomas.

KEY POINTS

• The percentages of LR-M tumors on both CT and MRI were significantly higher in proliferative than non-proliferative hepatocellular carcinomas. • Independent of pathologic classification, CT/MRI LR-M categories were correlated with poor overall survival and recurrence-free survival. • Patients with both proliferative and non-proliferative hepatocellular carcinomas categorized as MRI LR-M had significantly poorer overall survival and recurrence-free survival than those categorized as MRI LR-4/5.

Retreatment with immunotherapy in a patient with hepatocellular carcinoma who received immune checkpoint inhibitors after primary curative treatment: a case report

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents a malignant pathology known for its high early recurrence rate following curative treatment, significantly impacting patient prognosis. Currently, effective strategies to mitigate early HCC recurrence remain undetermined. In this report, we document a case of HCC managed with curative radiofrequency ablation (RFA), particularly in a patient facing a high risk of early recurrence due to a substantial tumor size. In an effort to forestall recurrence, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) were preemptively administered for 6 months post-RFA. Despite this, early recurrence ensued upon ICIs cessation. Traditionally, the approach to advanced HCC has been conservative, yet recent years have seen promising outcomes with ICIs in advanced HCC. However, research on ICIs retreatment is limited. In the short term, this patient experienced widespread metastases post-ICIs discontinuation, yet exhibited prompt regression upon ICIs reinitiation. Notably, this represents the initial documented instance of employing ICIs to forestall recurrence subsequent to curative RFA in HCC. Following ICIs discontinuation, diffuse recurrence with multiple metastases emerged, with successful resolution upon ICIs retreatment.

A multicenter propensity score analysis of significance of hepatic resection type for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The impact of hepatic resection type on long-term oncological prognosis of patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been systematically investigated. We sought to determine risk factors, recurrence patterns, and survival outcomes after anatomical resection (AR) versus non-anatomical resection (NAR) for early-stage HCC.

METHODS

From a prospectively collected multicenter database, consecutive patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for early-stage HCC were identified. Recurrence patterns, overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and risk factors were investigated in patients undergoing AR versus NAR using propensity score matching (PSM), subgroup analysis, and COX regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 3585 patients with early-stage HCC were enrolled, including 1287 and 2298 in the AR and NAR groups, respectively. After PSM, the OS and RFS of patients in the AR group were 58.8% and 42.7%, which were higher than those in the NAR group (52.2% and 30.6%, both p < 0.01). The benefits of AR were consistent across most subgroup analyses of OS and RFS. Multivariable COX regression analysis showed that AR was independently associated with better OS and RFS. Notably, although recurrence patterns were comparable, the risk factors for recurrence were not identical for AR versus NAR. Microvascular invasion and narrow resection margin were only associated with a higher recurrence rate after NAR.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that AR decreases the risk of tumor recurrence and improves OS and RFS in patients with early-stage HCC. AR should be adopted as long as such a surgical maneuver is feasible for initial treatment of early-stage HCC.

Predicting microvascular invasion in small (≤ 5 cm) hepatocellular carcinomas using radiomics-based peritumoral analysis

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the predictive capacity of computed tomography (CT)-enhanced radiomics models in determining microvascular invasion (MVI) for isolated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤ 5 cm within peritumoral margins of 5 and 10 mm.

METHODS

Radiomics software was used for feature extraction. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm to establish an effective model to predict patients' preoperative MVI status.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) values in the validation sets for the 5- and 10-mm radiomics models concerning arterial tumors were 0.759 and 0.637, respectively. In the portal vein phase, they were 0.626 and 0.693, respectively. Additionally, the combined radiomics model for arterial tumors and the peritumoral 5-mm margin had an AUC value of 0.820. The decision curve showed that the combined tumor and peritumoral radiomics model exhibited a somewhat superior benefit compared to the traditional model, while the fusion model demonstrated an even greater advantage, indicating its significant potential in clinical application.

CONCLUSION

The 5-mm peritumoral arterial model had superior accuracy and sensitivity in predicting MVI. Moreover, the combined tumor and peritumoral radiomics model outperformed both the individual tumor and peritumoral radiomics models. The most effective combination was the arterial phase tumor and peritumor 5-mm margin combination. Using a fusion model that integrates tumor and peritumoral radiomics and clinical data can aid in the preoperative diagnosis of the MVI of isolated HCC ≤ 5 cm, indicating considerable practical value.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The radiomics model including a 5-mm peritumoral expansion is a promising noninvasive biomarker for preoperatively predicting microvascular invasion in patients diagnosed with a solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm.

KEY POINTS

• Radiomics features extracted at a 5-mm distance from the tumor could better predict hepatocellular carcinoma microvascular invasion. • Peritumoral radiomics can be used to capture tumor heterogeneity and predict microvascular invasion. • This radiomics model stands as a promising noninvasive biomarker for preoperatively predicting MVI in individuals.

Lower Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index and Prognostic Nutritional Index Predict Postoperative Prognosis in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Increasing evidence suggests that nutritional indices, including the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), are predictors of poor prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hence, this study aimed to explore the value of the GNRI and PNI in evaluating postoperative prognosis in patients with HCC, particularly regarding its recurrence patterns. We performed a retrospective analysis of 203 patients with HCC who underwent initial hepatic resection. Patients were divided into two groups according to the GNRI (cutoff: 98) and PNI (cutoff: 45). The GNRI and PNI were significantly associated with body composition (body mass index and skeletal muscle mass index), hepatic function (Child-Pugh Score), tumor factors (tumor size and microvascular invasion), and perioperative factors (blood loss and postoperative hospitalization). Patients with a low PNI or low GNRI had significantly worse overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival. Patients with early recurrence had lower PNI and GNRI scores than those without early recurrence. Patients with extrahepatic recurrence had lower PNI and GNRI scores than those without extrahepatic recurrence. The PNI and GNRI might be useful in predicting the prognosis and recurrence patterns of patients with HCC after hepatic resection.

Comparison of outcomes between preoperative and postoperative systemic treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER database-based study

Background

Significant advancements in systemic treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma have been made in recent years. However, the optimal timing of systemic treatment before or after surgery remains unknown. This study aims to evaluate the impact of sequencing systemic treatment and surgical intervention on the long-term prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Methods

In our study, we analyzed data from patients diagnosed with primary liver cancer (2004-2015) extracted from the SEER database. Patients who underwent both systemic treatment and surgical intervention were selected, divided into preoperative and postoperative systemic therapy groups. The primary endpoint of the study is overall survival(OS), and the secondary endpoint is cancer-specific survival (CSS). Propensity score matching (PSM) reduced the influence of confounding factors, while Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model accounted for variables during survival analysis.

Results

A total of 1918 eligible HCC patients were included, with 1406 cases in the preoperative systemic treatment group and 512 cases in the postoperative systemic treatment group. Survival analysis showed that both the preoperative group demonstrated longer median overall survival (OS) and median cancer-specific survival (CSS) before and after PSM. After conducting multivariate COX regression analysis with stepwise adjustment of input variables, the postoperative systemic treatment group continued to exhibit a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.55-2.1) and cancer-specific mortality (HR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.73-2.54). Subgroup analysis indicated consistent results for overall survival (OS) across different subgroups.

Conclusions

Hepatocellular carcinoma patients from the SEER database who received preoperative systemic therapy had superior OS and CSS compared to those who received postoperative systemic therapy.

Management of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver surgery and thermal ablations: state of the art and future perspectives

Despite the improvements in surgical and medical therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), recurrence still represents a major issue. Up to 70% of patients can experience HCC recurrence after liver resection (LR), as well as 20% of them even after liver transplantation (LT). The patterns of recurrence are different according to both the time and the location. Similarly, the risk factors and the management can change not only according to these patterns, but also according to the underlying liver condition and to the first treatment performed. Deep knowledge of such correlation is fundamental, since prevention and effective management of recurrence are undoubtedly the most important strategies to improve the outcomes of HCC treatment. Without adjuvant therapy, maintaining very close monitoring during the first 2 years in order to diagnose curable recurrence and continue this monitoring beyond 5 years because late recurrences exist, remains our only possibility today. Surgery represents the cornerstone treatment for HCC, including both LT and LR. However, new interesting therapeutic opportunities are coming from immunotherapy that has shown encouraging results also in the adjuvant setting. In such a complex and evolutionary scenario, the aim of this review is to summarize current strategies for the management of HCC recurrence, focusing on the different possible scenarios, as well as on future perspectives.

Evaluation of patients treated with direct-acting anti-viral therapy for chronic hepatitis C and their risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND & AIM

To evaluate the risk of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Hong Kong, as it has not been studied before in this locality.

METHODS

Three hundred thirty-three consecutive chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs from two hospitals over the past 6 years were identified. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate cumulative HCC incidence. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with HCC development.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 23.4 months after DAA started, 15 (5.4%, 95% CI 3.3-8.7%) out of 279 total included patients developed HCC. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 98.9%. The 1-year cumulative incidence for de-novo HCC and HCC recurrence were 0.8 and 30.9%, respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). The 1-year cumulative HCC incidence for patients without and with cirrhosis were 0.7 and 5.1%, respectively (log-rank test p = 0.036). Univariate analysis showed that significant factors associated with HCC after DAA were: history of treated HCC, cirrhosis, evidence of portal hypertension, higher AFP at the start or end of DAA therapy, higher bilirubin, lower platelets, lower albumin, and older age. From receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level of AFP for predicting HCC was 10.5 ng/mL at the start and 5.6 ng/mL at the end of DAA therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of early HCC recurrence remains high despite achieving SVR following DAA therapy, whereas the risk of early de-novo HCC occurence is low. AFP levels, both at the start and end of DAA therapy, can be useful in stratifying risks of HCC development.

A Cox Nomogram for Assessing Recurrence Free Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Surgical Resection Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Radiomics

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is difficult to predict and carries high mortality. This study utilized radiomic techniques with clinical examinations to assess recurrence in HCC.

PURPOSE

To develop a Cox nomogram to assess the risk of postoperative recurrence in HCC using radiomic features of three volumes of interest (VOIs) in preoperative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), along with clinical findings.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

SUBJECTS

249 patients with pathologically proven HCCs undergoing surgical resection at three institutions were selected.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

Fat saturated T2-weighted, Fat saturated T1-weighted, and DCE-MRI performed at 1.5 T and 3.0 T.

ASSESSMENT

Three VOIs were generated; the tumor VOI corresponds to the area from the tumor core to the outer perimeter of the tumor, the tumor +10 mm VOI represents the area from the tumor perimeter to 10 mm distal to the tumor in all directions, finally, the background liver parenchyma VOI represents the hepatic tissue outside the tumor. Three models were generated. The total radiomic model combined information from the three listed VOI's above. The clinical-radiological model combines physical examination findings with imaging characteristics such as tumor size, margin features, and metastasis. The combined radiomic model includes features from both models listed above and showed the highest reliability for assessing 24-month survival for HCC.

STATISTICAL TESTS

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, univariable, and multivariable Cox regression, Kmeans clustering, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. The discrimination performance of each model was quantified by the C-index. A P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The combined radiomic model, which included features from the radiomic VOI's and clinical imaging provided the highest performance (C-index: training cohort = 0.893, test cohort = 0.851, external cohort = 0.797) in assessing the survival of HCC.

CONCLUSION

The combined radiomic model provides superior ability to discern the possibility of recurrence-free survival in HCC over the total radiomic and the clinical-radiological models.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

4.

TECHNICAL EFFICACY

Stage 2.

Repeat hepatectomy versus percutaneous ablation for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma: emphasis on the impact of early or late recurrence

PURPOSE

Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) patients with early recurrence usually suffer a poorer prognosis than those with late recurrence. We aimed to compare the treatment efficacy of repeat hepatectomy (RH) and percutaneous ablation (PA) in early-stage rHCC patients with early or late recurrence.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 268 patients diagnosed with early-stage rHCC who received RH and PA. Overall survival (OS) and repeat recurrence-free survival (rRFS) were compared using log-rank analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce the confounding bias.

RESULTS

Among the 268 patients with early-stage rHCC, 79 underwent RH and 189 underwent PA. Early (n = 174) and late (n = 94) recurrence was defined as recurrence within and after 2 years following initial hepatectomy, respectively. For patients with early recurrence, RH and PA provided similar 5-year OS (71.5% versus 74.4%, P = 0.87) and rRFS rates (24.7% versus 24.9%, P = 0.73). For patients with late recurrence, RH resulted in comparable 5-year OS (73.1% versus 86.1%, P = 0.62) and rRFS rates (36.6% versus 27.8%, P = 0.34) as PA. After PSM, RH continued to share similar 5-year OS and rRFS rates with PA in patients with early recurrence, and comparable efficacy of RH and PA was also observed in patients with late recurrence.

CONCLUSION

RH can offer comparable OS and rRFS rates as PA for early-stage rHCC patients, regardless of whether they experience early or late recurrence. Therefore, both RH and PA are feasible treatment options for early-stage rHCC patients.

The tumor microenvironment in the postsurgical liver: Mechanisms and potential targets of postoperative recurrence in human hepatocellular carcinoma

Surgery remains to be the mainstay of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nonetheless, its therapeutic efficacy is significantly impaired by postoperative recurrence, which occurs in more than half of cases as a result of intrahepatic metastasis or de novo tumorigenesis. For decades, most therapeutic strategies on inhibiting postoperative HCC recurrence have been focused on the residual tumor cells but satisfying therapeutic outcomes are barely observed in the clinic. In recent years, a better understanding of tumor biology allows us to shift our focus from tumor cells toward the postoperative tumor microenvironment (TME), which is gradually identified to play a pivotal role in tumor recurrence. In this review, we describe various surgical stress and surgical perturbation on postoperative TME. Besides, we discuss how such alternations in TME give rise to postoperative recurrence of HCC. Based on its clinical significance, we additionally highlight the potential of the postoperative TME as a target for postoperative adjuvant therapeutics.

Efficacy of a Second Course of Radiation for Patients With Metachronous Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Liver-directed radiation therapy is an effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but metachronous lesions develop outside the irradiated field in >50% of patients. We hypothesized that irradiation of these new lesions would produce an outcome like that of patients receiving a first course (C1) of treatment.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We included patients with HCC who received a second course (C2) of radiation therapy >1 month after C1. Toxicity was defined as Child-Pugh score increase ≥2 within 6 months posttreatment (binary model) and as the change in albumin-bilirubin during the year after treatment (longitudinal model). Overall survival (OS) and local failure (LF) were captured at the patient and lesion level, respectively; both were summarized with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Predictors of toxicity and OS were assessed using generalized linear mixed and Cox regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 340 patients with HCC, 47 underwent irradiation for metachronous HCC, receiving similar prescription dose in C1/C2. Median follow-up was 17 months after C1 and 15 months after C2. Twenty-two percent of patients experienced toxicity after C1, and 25% experienced toxicity after C2. Worse baseline albumin-bilirubin predicted toxicity in both binary (odds ratio, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.46-3.94; P = .0005) and longitudinal models (P < .005). Two-year LF rate was 11.2% after C1 and 8.3% after C2; tumor dose (hazard ratio [HR], 0.982; 95% CI, 0.969-0.995; P = .007) and tumor size (HR, 1.135; 95% CI, 1.068-1.206; P < .005) predicted LF. Two-year OS was 46.0% after C1 and 42.6% after C2; tumor dose (HR, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.979-0.992; P < .005) and tumor size (HR, 1.049; 95% CI, 1.010-1.088; P = .0124) predicted OS. Reirradiation was not associated with toxicity (P > .7), LF (P = .79), or OS (P = .39).

CONCLUSIONS

In this largest series in the Western hemisphere, we demonstrate that irradiation for metachronous HCC offers low rates of LF with acceptable toxicity and OS like that of patients receiving a C1. These findings support judicious selection of patients for reirradiation in metachronous HCC.

Intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics based on contrast-enhanced MRI for preoperatively predicting treatment response of transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive and precise methods to estimate treatment response and identify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who could benefit from transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are urgently required. The present study aimed to investigate the ability of intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics based on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI) to preoperatively predict tumor response to TACE in HCC patients.

METHODS

A total of 138 patients with HCC who received TACE were retrospectively included and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Total 1206 radiomics features were extracted from arterial, venous, and delayed phases images. The inter- and intraclass correlation coefficients, the spearman's rank correlation test, and the gradient boosting decision tree algorithm were used for radiomics feature selection. Radiomics models on intratumoral region (TR) and peritumoral region (PTR) (3 mm, 5 mm, and 10 mm) were established using logistic regression. Three integrated radiomics models, including intratumoral and peritumoral region (T-PTR) (3 mm), T-PTR (5 mm), and T-PTR (10 mm) models, were constructed using TR and PTR radiomics scores. A clinical-radiological model and a combined model incorporating the optimal radiomics score and selected clinical-radiological predictors were constructed, and the combined model was presented as a nomogram. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utilities were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

The T-PTR radiomics models performed better than the TR and PTR models, and the T-PTR (3 mm) radiomics model demonstrated preferable performance with the AUCs of 0.884 (95%CI, 0.821-0.936) and 0.911 (95%CI, 0.825-0.975) in both training and validation cohorts. The T-PTR (3 mm) radiomics score, alkaline phosphatase, tumor size, and satellite nodule were fused to construct a combined nomogram. The combined nomogram [AUC: 0.910 (95%CI, 0.854-0.958) and 0.918 (95%CI, 0.831-0.986)] outperformed the clinical-radiological model [AUC: 0.789 (95%CI, 0.709-0.863) and 0.782 (95%CI, 0.660-0.902)] in the both cohorts and achieved good calibration capability and clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

CE-MRI-based intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics approach can provide an effective tool for the precise and individualized estimation of treatment response for HCC patients treated with TACE.

Scientific Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

With advances in imaging technology and surgical instruments, hepatectomy can be perfectly performed with technical precision for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the 5-year tumor recurrence rates remain greater than 70%. Thus, the strategy for hepatectomy needs to be reappraised based on insights of scientific advances. Scientific evidence has suggested that the main causes of recurrence after hepatectomy for HCC are mainly related to underlying cirrhosis and the vascular spread of tumor cells that basically cannot be eradicated by hepatectomy. Liver transplantation and systemic therapy could be the solution to prevent postoperative recurrence in this regard. Therefore, determining the severity of liver cirrhosis for choosing the appropriate surgical modality, such as liver transplantation or hepatectomy, for HCC and integrating newly emerging immune-related adjuvant and/or neoadjuvant therapy into the strategy of hepatectomy for HCC have become new aspects of exploration to optimize the strategy of hepatectomy. In this new area, hepatectomy for HCC has evolved from a pure technical concept emphasizing anatomic resection into a scientific concept embracing technical considerations and scientific advances in underlying liver cirrhosis, vascular invasion, and systemic therapy. By introducing the concept of scientific hepatectomy, the indications, timing, and surgical techniques of hepatectomy will be further scientifically optimized for individual patients, and recurrence rates will be decreased and long-term survival will be further prolonged.

Revolutionising hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Harnessing contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serological indicators for postoperative early recurrence prediction

This study aimed to develop a noninvasive predictive model for identifying early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (within 2 years after surgery) based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serum biomarkers. Additionally, the model's validity was assessedthrough internal and external validation. Clinical data were collected from patients who underwent liver resection at the First Hospital of Quanzhou and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital. The data included general information, contrast-enhanced ultrasound parameters, Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) classification, and serum biomarkers. The data from Mengchao Hospital were divided into 2 groups, with a ratio of 6:4, to form the modeling and internal validation sets, respectively. On the other hand, the data from the First Hospital of Quanzhou served as the external validation group. The developed model was named the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence (HCC-ER) prediction model. The predictive efficiency of the HCC-ER model was compared with other established models. The baseline characteristics were found to be well-balanced across the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. Among the independent risk factors identified for early recurrence, LI-RADS classification, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor maximum diameter exhibited hazard ratios of 1.352, 1.337, and 1.135 respectively. Regarding predictive accuracy, the HCC-ER, Tumour-Node-Metastasis, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, and China Liver Cancer models demonstrated prediction errors of 0.196, 0.204, 0.201, and 0.200 in the modeling group; 0.215, 0.215, 0.218, and 0.212 in the internal validation group; 0.210, 0.215, 0.216, and 0.221 in the external validation group. Using the HCC-ER model, risk scores were calculated for all patients, and a cutoff value of 50 was selected. This cutoff effectively distinguished the high-risk recurrence group from the low-risk recurrence group in the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. However, the calibration curve of the predictive model slightly overestimated the risk of recurrence. The HCC-ER model developed in this study demonstrated high accuracy in predicting early recurrence within 2 years after hepatectomy. It provides valuable information for developing precise treatment strategies in clinical practice and holds considerable promise for further clinical implementation.

A preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing resection for single hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines recommend liver resection (LR) for patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of any size. This study developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing LR for single HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified 773 patients undergoing LR for single HCC between 2011 and 2017 from the cancer registry database of our institution. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to construct a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence, i.e., recurrence within 2 years of LR.

RESULTS

Early recurrence was identified in 219 patients (28.3%). The final model of early recurrence included four predictive factors-alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size of >30 mm, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of >8, and cirrhosis. Preoperative application of this model provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, with 2-year RFS of 79.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.7-84.2%); intermediate risk, with 2-year RFS of 66.6% (95% CI: 61.1-72.6%); and high risk, with 2-year RFS of 51.1% (95% CI: 43.0-60.8%).

CONCLUSION

We developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence after LR for single HCC. This model provides useful information for clinical decision-making.

Preoperative Radiomics Nomogram Based on CT Image Predicts Recurrence-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To construct preoperative models based on CT radiomics, radiologic and clinical features to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after liver resection (LR) of BCLC 0 to B stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to classify the prognosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 161 HCC patients who underwent radical LR. Two methods, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and random survival forest analysis, were performed for radiomics signature (RS) construction. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox regression analyses were performed to establish a combined nomogram (RCN) of RS and clinical parameters and a clinical nomogram (CN). The performance of the models was assessed comprehensively using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. The discrimination accuracy of the models was compared using integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). The risk stratification effect was assessed with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

The RCN achieved a C-index of 0.792/0.758 in the training/validation set, which was higher than the CN, RS, and BCLC stage system. The discriminatory accuracy of the RCN was improved when compared to the CN, RS, and BCLC staging systems (IDI > 0). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the RCN. The RCN allows risk stratification of patients in different clinical subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The integrated model combining RS and clinical factors can more effectively predict RFS after LR of BCLC 0 to B stage HCC patients and can effectively stratify the prognostic risk.

Association of primary tumor location with long-term oncological prognosis following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma:A multicenter propensity score matching analysis

PURPOSE

There is a striking laterality in the site of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with a strong predominance for the right side; however, the impact of primary tumor location on long-term prognosis after hepatectomy of HCC remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the effect of primary tumor location on long-term oncological prognosis after hepatectomy for HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data of consecutive patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for HCC between 2008 and 2017 were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of left-sided HCC (LS group) and right-sided HCC (RS group) were compared by using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. COX regression analysis was performed to assess the adjusted effect of tumor location on long-term oncological prognosis.

RESULTS

Of the 2799 included patients, 707 (25.3%) and 2092 (74.7%) were in the LS and RS groups, respectively. Using PSM analysis, 650 matched pairs of patients were created. In the PSM cohort, median OS (66.0 vs. 72.0 months, P = 0.001) and RFS (28.0 vs. 51.0 months, P < 0.001) were worse among patients in the LS group compared to individuals in the RS group. After further adjustment for other confounders using multivariable COX regression analyses, HCC located on the left side remained independently associated with worse OS and RFS.

CONCLUSION

Tumors located on the left side are associated with poorer OS and RFS after hepatectomy for HCC. Careful surgical options selection and frequent follow-up to improve long-term survival may be justified for HCC patients with left-sided primary tumors.

Effect of Different Liver Resection Modalities on the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma on the Left Lateral Lobe

Purpose

To investigate the effect of different liver resection modalities on the prognosis of left lateral lobe hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Methods

315 patients with HCC on left lateral lobe were divided into open left lateral lobectomy (LLL) group (n=249) and open left hepatectomy (LH) group (n=66). The differences in long-term prognosis between two groups were compared.

Results

The results showed that narrow resection margin (Hazard Ratio (HR):1.457, 95% Confidential Interval (CI): 1.038-2.047; HR:1.415, 95% CI: 1.061-1.887), tumor diameter > 5 cm (1.645, 1.161-2.330; 1.488, 1.123-1.971), multiple tumors (2.021, 1.330-3.073; 1.987, 1.380-2.861), and microvascular invasion (MVI) (1.753, 1.253-2.452; 1.438, 1.087-1.902) are independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and tumor recurrence (TR), while liver resection modality is not. After propensity score matching, liver resection modality is not an independent risk factor for OS and TR. Further analysis revealed that wide resection margins were achieved in all patients in the LH group but only 59.0% patients in the LLL group. The OS and TR rates were not significantly different between wide patients with resection margins in LLL group and LH group (P=0.766 and 0.919, respectively), but significantly different between patients with narrow resection margins in LLL group and LH group (P=0.012 and 0.017, respectively).

Conclusion

Liver resection modality is not an independent risk factor for the prognosis of patients with HCC on the left lateral lobe as long as wide margins are obtained. Nevertheless, with narrow margins, patients who underwent LH rather than LLL did better.

Predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence for patients undergoing hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a large-scale multicenter study

Background

Recurrence is common among patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which greatly limits long-term survival. We aimed to identify predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence after HCC resection.

Methods

Multicenter data of patients who underwent HCC resection between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed. Recurrence was divided into early (≤2 years) and late recurrence (>2 years after surgery). Predictors of early and late recurrence, and prognostic factors of post-recurrence survival (PRS) were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

Among 1,426 patients, 554 (38.8%) and 348 (24.4%) developed early and late recurrence, respectively. Independent predictors associated with early recurrence included preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level >400 µg/L, resection margin <1 cm, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor at the first diagnosis of HCC; independent predictors associated with late recurrence included male, cirrhosis, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor. Patients with early recurrence had a lower likelihood of undergoing potentially curative treatments for recurrence (37.2% vs. 48.0%, P<0.001) and a worse median PRS (13.5 vs. 36.6 months, P<0.001) vs. patients who had late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that early recurrence and irregular postoperative surveillance were independently associated with worse PRS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.250, 95% CI: 1.016-1.538, P=0.035; and HR =1.983, 95% CI: 1.677-2.345, P<0.001].

Conclusions

Predictors associated with early and late recurrence after curative resection for patients with HCC were generally same, although several did differ. Patients with late recurrence had better long-term survival than patients with early recurrence.

Microwave Ablation of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Surgical Resection

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of microwave ablation (MWA) as a treatment for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after initial successful surgical resection. Methods: This retrospective study included 40 patients (11 women and 29 men; mean age: 62.3 ± 11.7 years) with 48 recurrent lesions of HCC after initial surgical resection that were treated by percutaneous MWA. Several parameters including complications, technical success, local tumor progression (LTP), intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated in order to investigate the safety and efficacy of MWA for these recurrent HCC lesions after surgical treatment. Results: All MWA treatments were performed without complications or procedure-related deaths. Technical success was achieved in all cases. Two cases developed LTP at a rate of 5%, and IDR occurred in 23 cases at a rate of 57.5% (23/40). The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 6-year OS rates were 97%, 89.2%, 80.3%, 70.2%, and 60.2%, respectively. The 1- and 3-year PFS rates were 50.2% and 34.6%, respectively. Conclusion: MWA is effective and safe as a local treatment for recurrent HCC after initial surgical resection.

A novel nomogram predicting the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after R0 resection

Background

Early tumor recurrence is one of the most significant poor prognostic factors for patients with HCC after R0 resection. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of early recurrence, in addition, to develop a nomogram model predicting early recurrence of HCC patients.

Methods

A total of 481 HCC patients after R0 resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 337) and a validation cohort (n = 144). Risk factors for early recurrence were determined based on Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A nomogram incorporating independent risk predictors was established and validated.

Results

Early recurrence occurred in 37.8% of the 481 patients who underwent curative liver resection of HCC. AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL (HR: 1.662; P = 0.008), VEGF-A among 127.8 to 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 1.781, P = 0.012), VEGF-A > 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 2.552, P < 0.001), M1 subgroup of MVI (HR: 2.221, P = 0.002), M2 subgroup of MVI (HR: 3.120, P < 0.001), intratumor necrosis (HR: 1.666, P = 0.011), surgical margin among 5.0 to 10.0 mm (HR: 1.601, P = 0.043) and surgical margin < 5.0 mm (HR: 1.790, P = 0.012) were found to be independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival in the training cohort and were used for constructing the nomogram. The nomogram indicated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.729-0.832) and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.731-0.886) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

Conclusions

Elevated serum concentrations of AFP and VEGF-A, microvascular invasion, intratumor necrosis, surgical margin were independent risk factors of early intrahepatic recurrence. A reliable nomogram model which incorporated blood biomarkers and pathological variables was established and validated. The nomogram achieved desirable effectiveness in predicting early recurrence in HCC patients.

Physics-based tissue simulator to model multicellular systems: A study of liver regeneration and hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

We present a multiagent-based model that captures the interactions between different types of cells with their microenvironment, and enables the analysis of the emergent global behavior during tissue regeneration and tumor development. Using this model, we are able to reproduce the temporal dynamics of regular healthy cells and cancer cells, as well as the evolution of their three-dimensional spatial distributions. By tuning the system with the characteristics of the individual patients, our model reproduces a variety of spatial patterns of tissue regeneration and tumor growth, resembling those found in clinical imaging or biopsies. In order to calibrate and validate our model we study the process of liver regeneration after surgical hepatectomy in different degrees. In the clinical context, our model is able to predict the recurrence of a hepatocellular carcinoma after a 70% partial hepatectomy. The outcomes of our simulations are in agreement with experimental and clinical observations. By fitting the model parameters to specific patient factors, it might well become a useful platform for hypotheses testing in treatments protocols.

Predictors of early and late hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent liver neoplasm, and its incidence rates are constantly increasing. Despite the availability of potentially curative treatments (liver transplantation, surgical resection, thermal ablation), long-term outcomes are affected by a high recurrence rate (up to 70% of cases 5 years after treatment). HCC recurrence within 2 years of treatment is defined as “early” and is generally caused by the occult intrahepatic spread of the primary neoplasm and related to the tumor burden. A recurrence that occurs after 2 years of treatment is defined as “late” and is related to de novo HCC, independent of the primary neoplasm. Early HCC recurrence has a significantly poorer prognosis and outcome than late recurrence. Different pathogenesis corresponds to different predictors of the risk of early or late recurrence. An adequate knowledge of predictive factors and recurrence risk stratification guides the therapeutic strategy and post-treatment surveillance. Patients at high risk of HCC recurrence should be referred to treatments with the lowest recurrence rate and when standardized to combined or adjuvant therapy regimens. This review aimed to expose the recurrence predictors and examine the differences between predictors of early and late recurrence.

Combining a machine-learning derived 4-lncRNA signature with AFP and TNM stages in predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Near 70% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is early recurrence within 2-year post surgery. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are intensively involved in HCC progression and serve as biomarkers for HCC prognosis. The aim of this study is to construct a lncRNA-based signature for predicting HCC early recurrence.

METHODS

Data of RNA expression and associated clinical information were accessed from The Cancer Genome Atlas Liver Hepatocellular Carcinoma (TCGA-LIHC) database. Recurrence associated differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELncs) were determined by three DEG methods and two survival analyses methods. DELncs involved in the signature were selected by three machine learning methods and multivariate Cox analysis. Additionally, the signature was validated in a cohort of HCC patients from an external source. In order to gain insight into the biological functions of this signature, gene sets enrichment analyses, immune infiltration analyses, as well as immune and drug therapy prediction analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

A 4-lncRNA signature consisting of AC108463.1, AF131217.1, CMB9-22P13.1, TMCC1-AS1 was constructed. Patients in the high-risk group showed significantly higher early recurrence rate compared to those in the low-risk group. Combination of the signature, AFP and TNM further improved the early HCC recurrence predictive performance. Several molecular pathways and gene sets associated with HCC pathogenesis are enriched in the high-risk group. Antitumor immune cells, such as activated B cell, type 1 T helper cell, natural killer cell and effective memory CD8 T cell are enriched in patients with low-risk HCCs. HCC patients in the low- and high-risk group had differential sensitivities to various antitumor drugs. Finally, predictive performance of this signature was validated in an external cohort of patients with HCC.

CONCLUSION

Combined with TNM and AFP, the 4-lncRNA signature presents excellent predictability of HCC early recurrence.

Salvage locoregional therapies for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Despite the advent of screening efforts and algorithms to stratify patients into appropriate treatment strategies, recurrence rates remain high. In contrast to first-line treatment for HCC, which relies on several factors, including clinical staging, tumor burden, and liver function, there is no consensus or general treatment recommendations for recurrent HCC (R-HCC). Locoregional therapies include a spectrum of minimally invasive liver-directed treatments which can be used as either curative or neoadjuvant therapy for HCC. Herein, we provide a comprehensive review of recent evidence using salvage loco-regional therapies for R-HCC after failed curative-intent.

Combining local regional therapy and systemic therapy: Expected changes in the treatment landscape of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

Improvements in early screening, new diagnostic techniques, and surgical treatment have led to continuous downward trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) morbidity and mortality rates. However, high recurrence and refractory cancer after hepatectomy remain important factors affecting the long-term prognosis of HCC. The clinical characteristics and prognosis of recurrent HCC are heterogeneous, and guidelines on treatment strategies for recurrent HCC are lacking. Therapies such as surgical resection, radiofrequency ablation, and transhepatic arterial chemoembolization are effective for tumors confined to the liver, and targeted therapy is a very important treatment for unresectable recurrent HCC with systemic metastasis. With the deepening of the understanding of the immune microenvironment of HCC, blocking immune checkpoints to enhance the antitumor immune response has become a new direction for the treatment of HCC. In addition, improvements in the tumor immune microenvironment caused by local treatment may provide an opportunity to improve the therapeutic effect of HCC treatment. Ongoing and future clinical trial data of combined therapy may develop the new treatment scheme for recurrent HCC. This paper reviews the pattern of recurrent HCC and the characteristics of the immune microenvironment, demonstrates the basis for combining local treatment and systemic treatment, and reports current evidence to better understand current progress and future approaches in the treatment of recurrent HCC.

Prediction of left lobe hypertrophy after right lobe radioembolization of the liver using a clinical data model with external validation

In cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), right-sided radioembolization (RE) with Yttrium-90-loaded microspheres is an established palliative therapy and can be considered a "curative intention" treatment when aiming for sequential tumor resection. To become surgical candidate, hypertrophy of the left liver lobe to > 40% (future liver remnant, FLR) is mandatory, which can develop after RE. The amount of radiation-induced shrinkage of the right lobe and compensatory hypertrophy of the left lobe is difficult for clinicians to predict. This study aimed to utilize machine learning to predict left lobe liver hypertrophy in patients with HCC and cirrhosis scheduled for right lobe RE, with external validation. The results revealed that machine learning can accurately predict relative and absolute volume changes of the left liver lobe after right lobe RE. This prediction algorithm could help to estimate the chances of conversion from palliative RE to curative major hepatectomy following significant FLR hypertrophy.

Use of radiomics containing an effective peritumoral area to predict early recurrence of solitary hepatocellular carcinoma ≤5 cm in diameter

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth leading type of cancer worldwide. We aimed to develop a preoperative predictive model of the risk of early tumor recurrence after HCC treatment based on radiomic features of the peritumoral region and evaluate the performance of this model against postoperative pathology.

Method

Our model was developed using a retrospective analysis of imaging and clinicopathological data of 175 patients with an isolated HCC ≤5 cm in diameter; 117 patients were used for model training and 58 for model validation. The peritumoral area was delineated layer-by-layer for the arterial and portal vein phase on preoperative dynamic enhanced computed tomography images. The volume area of interest was expanded by 5 and 10 mm and the radiomic features of these areas extracted. Lasso was used to select the most stable features.

Results

The radiomic features of the 5-mm area were sufficient for prediction of early tumor recurrence, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.706 for the validation set and 0.837 for the training set using combined images. The AUC of the model using clinicopathological information alone was 0.753 compared with 0.786 for the preoperative radiomics model (P >0.05).

Conclusions

Radiomic features of a 5-mm peritumoral region may provide a non-invasive biomarker for the preoperative prediction of the risk of early tumor recurrence for patients with a solitary HCC ≤5 cm in diameter. A fusion model that combines the radiomic features of the peritumoral region and postoperative pathology could contribute to individualized treatment of HCC.

LncRNA CARMN Affects Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prognosis by Regulating the miR-192-5p/LOXL2 Axis

Background. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis. It has been suggested that the aberrant expression of LOXL2 is associated with the development of HCC, but the exact mechanism remains unclear. This research is aimed at examining the expression level and prognostic value of LOXL2 in hepatocellular carcinoma and its relationship with immune infiltration and at predicting its upstream noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs). Method. The transcriptome data of HCC was first downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database to investigate the expression and prognosis of LOXL2. Then, the starBase database was used to find the upstream ncRNAs of LOXL2, and correlation analysis and expression analysis were performed. Finally, the Tumor Immune Estimation Resource (TIMER) was used to explore the association between LOXL2 and immune cell infiltration. Result. CARMN was considered to be the potential upstream lncRNA for the hsa-miR-192-5p/LOXL2 axis in HCC. Furthermore, the level LOXL2 was markedly positively associated with tumor immune cell infiltration and immune checkpoint expression in HCC. Conclusion. Higher expression of LOXL2 mediated by microRNA (miRNA) and long noncoding RNAs (lncRNA) is associated with poor overall survival (OS), immune infiltration, and immune checkpoint expression in HCC.

Impact of HBsAg seroclearance on late recurrence of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unknown whether HBsAg seroclearance affects the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver resection. We aimed to investigate the impact of HBsAg seroclearance on the recurrence of HCC after curative liver resection, with a focus on late recurrence.

METHODS

This study comprised 2,520 consecutive patients who received curative liver resection for HBV-related HCC of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0 or A in Korea between 2000 and 2017. To focus on late recurrence, patients with recurrence or a follow-up duration less than 2 years were excluded. The impact of HBsAg seroclearance on HCC recurrence was assessed by landmark analysis (2-, 5-and 8-year after liver resection), time-dependent Cox and multistate modeling.

RESULTS

The mean patient age was 54.4 years and 75.7% were men. A total of 891 (35.4%) patients developed HCC recurrence at rates of 11.2%, 25.5%, and 46.8% at 3, 5, and 10 years after resection. HBsAg seroclearance was achieved in 172 (6.8%) patients during a median follow-up duration of 6.9 years after resection. HBsAg seroclearance, compared with persistent HBsAg positivity, was associated with a lower risk of late HCC recurrence in the 2-, 5-, and 8-year landmark analysis (p = 0.04, p = 0.02 and p = 0.03, respectively) and on time-dependent multivariable Cox modeling (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; p = 0.005). Based on a 3-state unidirectional illness-death model, patients without HBsAg seroclearance transitioned to HCC recurrence more rapidly than patients who experienced HBsAg seroclearance.

CONCLUSIONS

HBsAg seroclearance is associated with a lower risk of late recurrence of HBV-related HCC among Korean patients who undergo curative liver resection.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Suppression of HBV replication is known to lower the risk of HCC recurrence after liver resection (a procedure used to treat and in some cases cure HCC). However, whether the loss of a specific HBV protein (hepatitis B surface antigen or HBsAg) has an impact on recurrence after liver resection remains unknown. Herein, we show that loss of HBsAg is associated with a reduce risk of late recurrence of HCC after liver resection in patients with HBV-related HCC.

Oncological outcomes of anatomic versus non-anatomic resections for small hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review and meta-analysis of propensity-score matched studies

Background

Primary liver cancer is the second-most commonly occurring cancer and has resulted in numerous deaths worldwide. Hepatic resection is of two main types, i.e., anatomic resection (AR) and non-anatomic resection (NAR). The oncological outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after AR and NAR are still considered controversial. Therefore, we aimed to compare the impact of AR and NAR on the oncological outcomes of HCC patients with tumor diameters ≤ 5 cm using the propensity score matching method and research-based evidence.

Method

A systematic literature search was conducted. The main outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), intrahepatic recurrence rate, and extrahepatic metastasis rate. Relative risk (RR) was calculated from forest plots and outcomes using random-effects model (REM).

Result

AR significantly improved DFS at 1, 3. and 5 years after surgery, compared to NAR (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.04–1.15, P = 0.0003; RR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.07–1.27, P = 0.0005; RR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.07–1.55, P = 0.008). However, both of the difference in DFS at 7 years and OS at 1 and 3 years after AR versus that after NAR were not statistically significant. Nevertheless, the long-term OS associated with AR (5, 7, and 10 years) was superior to that associated with NAR (RR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03–1.21, P = 0.01; RR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.04–1.36, P = 0.01; RR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.05–1.34, P = 0.008). The difference in the intrahepatic recurrence rate after AR versus that after NAR was not statistically significant, but the extrahepatic metastasis rate after AR was significantly lower than that observed after NAR (RR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.40–0.94, P = 0.03).

Conclusion

Therefore, AR should be the preferred surgical approach for HCC patients with tumor diameters ≤ 5 cm.

Trial registration

PROSPERO registration number CRD42022330596.

Using pre-operative radiomics to predict microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma based on Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI

Objectives

We aimed to investigate the value of performing gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA) enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics for preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on multiple sequences.

Methods

We randomly allocated 165 patients with HCC who underwent partial hepatectomy to training and validation sets. Stepwise regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm were used to select significant variables. A clinicoradiological model, radiomics model, and combined model were constructed using multivariate logistic regression. The performance of the models was evaluated, and a nomogram risk-prediction model was built based on the combined model. A concordance index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram model.

Results

The tumour margin, peritumoural hypointensity, and seven radiomics features were selected to build the combined model. The combined model outperformed the radiomics model and the clinicoradiological model and had the highest sensitivity (90.89%) in the validation set. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.826, 0.755, and 0.708 for the combined, radiomics, and clinicoradiological models, respectively. The nomogram model based on the combined model exhibited good discrimination (concordance index = 0.79) and calibration.

Conclusions

The combined model based on radiomics features of Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI, tumour margin, and peritumoural hypointensity was valuable for predicting HCC microvascular invasion. The nomogram based on the combined model can intuitively show the probabilities of MVI.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-022-00855-w.

Stereotactic body radiation therapy for elderly patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective observational study

Background/Aim

We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in elderly patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC).

Methods

Eighty-three patients (89 lesions) with HCC who underwent SBRT between January 2012 and December 2018 were reviewed in this retrospective observational study. The key inclusion criteria were as follows: 1) age ≥75 years, 2) contraindications for hepatic resection or percutaneous ablative therapies, 3) no macroscopic vascular invasion, and 4) no extrahepatic metastasis.

Results

The patients were 75-90 years of age, and 49 (59.0%) of them were male. Most patients (94.0%) had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1. Seventy-four patients (89.2%) had Child-Pugh class A hepatic function before SBRT. The median tumor size was 1.6 cm (range, 0.7-3.5). The overall median follow-up period was 34.8 months (range, 7.3-99.3). The 5-year local tumor control rate was 90.1%. The 3-year and 5-year overall survival rate was 57.1% and 40.7%, respectively. Acute toxicity grade ≥3 was observed in three patients (3.6%) with elevated serum hepatic enzymes; however, no patient experienced a worsening of the Child-Pugh score to ≥2 after SBRT. None of the patients developed late toxicity (grade ≥3).

Conclusions

SBRT is a safe treatment option with a high local control rate in elderly patients with small HCC who are not eligible for other curative treatments.

Long-Term Survival and Risk Factors in Patients with Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Real-World Study

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect 465 patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radical hepatectomy from January 1, 2012, to August 31, 2018, at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China. The clinical, pathological, and follow-up information was collected to compare the basic characteristics of death and nondeath after radical resection. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis and male and female subgroup analysis. The multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to analyze independent risk factors related to postoperative death. Of the 465 patients with radical resection of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma, 132 died, and 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival rates after operation were 92.1%, 78%, and 64%, respectively. In the male and female subgroup, 115 and 17 patients died, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 92.6%, 77.0%, and 62.6%, respectively, in men, and 89.6%, 78.8%, and 70.2%, respectively, in women. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that microvascular invasion (MVI), Edmondson III/IV, BCLC stage B, and total bilirubin (TB) > 20.5 μmol/L were independent risk factors in patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma after radical hepatectomy.

Hepatobiliary Phase Features of Preoperative Gadobenate-Enhanced MR can Predict Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Who Underwent Anatomical Hepatectomy

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to establish a model for predicting early recurrence (≤2 years) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after anatomical hepatectomy based on the hepatobiliary phase (HBP) imaging characteristics of gadobenate-enhanced MRI.

Methods

A total of 155 patients who underwent anatomical hepatectomy HCC therapy and gadobenate-enhanced MRI were included retrospectively. The patients were divided into the early recurrence-free group (n = 103) and the early recurrence group (n = 52). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors related to early recurrence, and four models were established. The preoperative model with/without HBP imaging features (HBP-pre/No HBP-pre model) and the postoperative model with/without HBP imaging features (HBP-post/No HBP-post model). Bootstrap resampling 1,000 times was used to verify the model and displayed by nomograms. The performance of nomograms was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the differences between models and to select the optimal model.

Results

Shape, arterial peritumoral enhancement, AFP-L3, and peritumoral hypointensity on HBP were identified as independent risk factors. Prothrombin time (PT) and r-glutamyltransferase (GGT) were selected by multivariate Cox regression. These six factors construct the HBP-pre model. Removing peritumoral hypointensity on HBP was the No HBP-pre model. Adding microvascular invasion (MVI) and microscopic capsule factors were the HBP-post and No HBP-post model. The C-index was 0.766, 0.738, 0.770, and 0.742, respectively. The NRI and IDI of the HBP-pre vs. the No HBP-pre model and the HBP-post vs. the No HBP-post model significantly increased 0.258, 0.092, 0.280, and 0.086, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) had good consistency and clinical utility. However, the NRI and IDI of the No HBP-post vs. the No HBP-pre model and the HBP-post vs. the HBP-pre model did not increase significantly.

Conclusions

Preoperative gadobenate-enhanced MR HBP imaging features significantly improve the model performance while the postoperative pathological factors do not. Therefore, the HBP-pre model is selected as the optimal model. The strong performance of this model may help hepatologists to assess the risk of recurrence in order to guide the selection of treatment options.

Histological Severity of Cirrhosis Influences Surgical Outcomes of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is frequently associated with cirrhosis. The present study investigated the impact of histological severity of cirrhosis on surgical outcomes for HCC and further developed novel nomograms to predict postoperative recurrence and survival.

Methods

A total of 1524 consecutive patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for HCC between 1999 and 2015 were retrospectively studied. Cirrhotic severity was histologically staged according to the Laennec staging system. Short- and long-term outcomes were investigated. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) predictive nomograms were constructed based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was measured by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration.

Results

Patients in the severe cirrhosis group had significantly higher morbidity and mortality rates than patients in the no, mild, and moderate cirrhosis groups. The 5-year RFS and OS rates were 36.8% and 64.5%, respectively, in the no cirrhosis group, compared to 34.8% and 60.4% in the mild cirrhosis group, 17.3% and 43.4% in the moderate cirrhosis group, and 6.1% and 20.1% in the severe cirrhosis group. Long-term survival outcomes were significantly worse as cirrhotic severity was increased. The C-index was 0.727 for the RFS nomogram and 0.746 for the OS nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between actual observations and nomogram predictions. The 2 nomograms had a superior discriminatory ability to predict RFS and OS compared to other staging systems.

Conclusion

Histological severity of cirrhosis significantly affected surgical outcomes in HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy. The novel nomograms, including histological severity of cirrhosis, showed an accurate prediction of postoperative recurrence and survival.

Surgical resection versus radiofrequency ablation for early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are reasonable treatment options for early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC), but it is still uncertain which treatment is better. The purpose of this study was to compare the therapeutic effects of SR and RFA on patients with early rHCC.

METHODS

This study enrolled 168 patients with early rHCC who underwent SR or RFA. The progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and complications between the treatment groups for the total and propensity score-matched (PSM) cohorts were compared.

RESULTS

Before PSM, the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS (94.8%, 63.0%, 36.1% vs. 93.8%, 58.5%, 35.4%, P  = 0.580) and PFS (50.7%, 22.7%, 12.0% vs. 68.8%, 30.3%, 15.9%, P  = 0.224) were similar in RFA group and the SR group. After PSM, the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS (95.5%, 71.1%, 53.3% vs. 95.5%, 58.0%, 42.1%, P  = 0.285) and PFS (50%, 36.4%, 27.3% vs. 68.2%, 25.6%, 12.8%, P  = 0.999) were similar in the RFA group and the SR group. For patients with early recurrent tumors ≤3 cm, RFA and SR could achieve similar curative effects. However, SR was superior to RFA in terms PFS for patients with early recurrent tumors >3 cm, but the OS was similar. For all patients, RFA had significantly fewer complications and shorter hospitalization time compared with SR.

CONCLUSION

SR achieves better tumor control compared with RFA for patients with early rHCC (>3 cm) after SR. RFA had significantly fewer complications and shorter hospitalization time compared with SR for all patients.

Screening of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with High Risk of Early Recurrence After Radical Hepatectomy Using a Nomogram Model Based on the γ-Glutamyl Transpeptidase-to-Albumin Ratio

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The present study aimed to establish a γ-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-albumin ratio (GAR)-based nomogram model to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical surgery.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in this study were randomly allocated into a train and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) proportional hazards model and cox regression model were combined to identify independent risk factors related to HCC recurrence. Based on these risk factors, a predictive nomogram was constructed and validated in both inner and outer test cohorts. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The tumor size, tumor number, BCLC stage, microvascular invasion (MVI) and GAR value were identified as independent risk factors related to HCC recurrence and used to construct the predictive nomogram. AUC of the nomogram showed satisfactory accuracy in predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival. The calibration curve showed agreement between the ideal and predicted values. The risk score more than 72 as calculated by the nomogram was related to early recurrence of HCC after radical surgery. DCA plots showed better clinical usability of the nomogram as compared with the BCLC staging system in all three included cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on the GAR value may provide a new option for screening of the target HCC cohort of patients who need anti-recurrence therapy after surgery.

Preoperative and postoperative nomograms for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma without macrovascular invasion after curative resection

BACKGROUND

Postoperative early recurrence (ER) is a major obstacle to long-term survival after curative liver resection (LR) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish preoperative and postoperative nomograms to predict ER in HCC without macrovascular invasion.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative LR for HCC between January 2012 and December 2016 were divided into training and internal prospective validation cohorts. Nomograms were constructed based on independent risk factors derived from the multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort. The predictive performances of the nomograms were validated using the internal prospective validation cohort.

RESULTS

In total, 698 patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Among them, 265 of 482 patients (55.0%) in the training cohort and 120 of 216 (55.6%) patients in the validation cohort developed ER. The preoperative risk factors associated with ER were age, alpha-fetoprotein, tumor diameter, and tumor number, and the postoperative risk factors associated with ER were age, tumor diameter, tumor number, microvascular invasion, and differentiation. The pre- and postoperative nomograms based on these factors showed good accuracy, with concordance indices of 0.712 and 0.850 in the training cohort, respectively, and 0.754 and 0.857 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves showed optimal agreement between the predictions by the nomograms and actual observations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the pre- and postoperative nomograms were 0.721 and 0.848 in the training cohort, respectively, and 0.754 and 0.844 in the validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms constructed in this study showed good performance in predicting ER for HCC without macrovascular invasion before and after surgery. These nomograms would be helpful for doctors when determining treatments and selecting patients for regular surveillance or administration of adjuvant therapies.

Impact of pathological response after preoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) on incidences of microvascular invasion and early tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter propensity score matching analysis

Background

To study the influence of pathological responses (PR) after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) on incidences of microvascular invasion (MVI) and early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Methods

Between 2013 to 2015, consecutive HCC patients who underwent liver resection with "curative" intent at three hospitals were enrolled in this study. Patients with different areas of PR after preoperative TACE were compared with those without preoperative TACE on the incidences of MVI, early recurrence rates and patterns of recurrence before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

Results

Of 1,970 patients, 737 patients who received preoperative TACE were divided into three groups according to the areas of PR: ≥90% (n=226), 60-90% (n=447), and <60% (n=64). PR ≥90% was an independent protective factor of incidences of MVI [odds ratio (OR), 0.144; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.082-0.245, P<0.001) and early recurrence (HR, 0.742; 95% CI, 0.561-0.963, P=0.032); while PR<60% was an independent risk factor of incidences of MVI (OR, 6.076; 95% CI, 3.004-11.728, P<0.001) and early recurrence (HR, 1.428; 95% CI, 1.095-1.929; P=0.009). Furthermore, patients with PR <60% were significantly more likely to develop multiple intrahepatic recurrences involving multiple hepatic segments when compared with patients without preoperative TACE.

Conclusions

This study indicated the area of PR after TACE was closely associated with the incidences of MVI and early tumor recurrence. Patients with PR <60% were at significantly higher risks of having more MVI, early and multiple tumor recurrences.

Non-transplantable Recurrence After Resection for Transplantable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Implication for Upfront Treatment Choice

OBJECTIVES

To identify the preoperative risk factors for prediction of non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) after tumor resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to assist in patient selection relative to upfront liver resection (LR) versus liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative resection for transplantable HCC and chronic liver disease were identified from an international multi-institutional database. NTR was defined as recurrence beyond the Milan or UCSF criteria, and the preoperative risk factors of NTR were investigated.

RESULTS

Among 293 patients with transplantable HCC within Milan criteria and 320 within UCSF criteria, 113 (38.6%) and 131 (40.9%) patients developed tumor recurrence, respectively. Among patients who recurred, NTR was present in 32 (28.3%) patients within Milan and 35 (26.7%) within UCSF criteria. When either Milan or UCSF criteria was adopted, three preoperative risk factors including liver cirrhosis, tumor size > 3 cm, and multiple lesions were consistently identified as risk factors associated with NTR after curative resection. By summing up the three factors, a scoring model was established and the incidence of NTR among patients with 0, 1 or ≥ 2 risk factors incrementally increased from 4.5%, 13.3% to 20.5% when Milan criteria was used, and from 4.5%, 12.4% to 33.9% when UCSF criteria was adopted. The model demonstrated very good discriminatory power on internal validation (n = 5,000) (c-index 0.689 for Milan criteria, and 0.715 for UCSF criteria).

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas surgical resection may be optimal first-line treatment for patients with no or one risk factor, patients with ≥ 2 risk factors should be considered for upfront liver transplantation.