Effect of age and residential status on the predictive performance of CURB-65 score

Utility of pneumonia severity assessment tools for mortality prediction in healthcare-associated pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Accurate prognostic tools for mortality in patients with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) are needed to provide appropriate medical care, but the efficacy for mortality prediction of tools like PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, and CURB-65, widely used for predicting mortality in community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia cases, remains controversial. In this study, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using PubMed, Cochrane Library (trials), and Ichushi web database (accessed on August 22, 2022). We identified articles evaluating either PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, or CURB-65 and the mortality outcome in patients with HCAP, and calculated the pooled sensitivities, specificities, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the summary area under the curves (AUCs) for mortality prediction. Additionally, the differences in predicting prognosis among these four assessment tools were evaluated using overall AUCs pooled from AUC values reported in included studies. Eventually, 21 articles were included and these quality assessments were evaluated by QUADAS-2. Using a cut-off value of moderate in patients with HCAP, the range of pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR were found to be 0.91-0.97, 0.15-0.44, 1.14-1.66, 0.18-0.33, and 3.86-9.32, respectively. Upon using a cut-off value of severe in those patients, the range of pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR were 0.63-0.70, 0.54-0.66, 1.50-2.03, 0.47-0.58, and 2.66-4.32, respectively. Overall AUCs were 0.70 (0.68-0.72), 0.70 (0.63-0.76), 0.68 (0.64-0.73), and 0.67 (0.63-0.71), respectively, for PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD, and CURB-65 (p = 0.66). In conclusion, these severity assessment tools do not have enough ability to predict mortality in HCAP patients. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in predictive performance among these four severity assessment tools.

Role of Clinical Characteristics and Biomarkers at Admission to Predict One-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients with Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

A hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia results in a decrease in long-term survival in elderly patients. We assessed biomarkers at admission to predict one-year mortality in a cohort of elderly patients with pneumonia.

METHODS

A prospective observational study included patients >65 years hospitalized with pneumonia. Assessment of PSI, CURB-65, and biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), interleukin (IL)-6 and -8, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), serum amyloid A (SAA), neopterin (NP), myeloperoxidase (MPO), anti-apolipoprotein A-1 IgG (anti-apoA-1), and anti-phosphorylcholine IgM (anti-PC IgM)) was used to calculate prognostic values for one-year mortality using ROC curve analyses. Post hoc optimal cutoffs with corresponding sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) were determined using the Youden index.

RESULTS

A total of 133 patients were included (median age 83 years [IQR: 78-89]). Age, dementia, BMI, NT-proBNP (AUROC 0.65 (95% CI: 0.55-0.77)), and IL-8 (AUROC 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.75)) were significantly associated with mortality, with NT-proBNP (HR 1.01 (95% CI 1.00-1.02) and BMI (HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-1.000) being independent of age, gender, comorbidities, and PSI with Cox regression. At the cutoff value of 2200 ng/L, NT-proBNP had 67% sensitivity and 70% specificity. PSI and CURB-65 were not associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP levels upon admission and BMI displayed the highest prognostic accuracy for one-year mortality and may help clinicians to identify patients with poor long-term prognosis.

Comparison of Frailty Index to Pneumonia Severity Measures in Older Patients With Pneumonia

OBJECTIVES

Risk stratification tools are useful to provide appropriate clinical care for older patients with pneumonia. This study aimed to compare a Frailty Index (FI) with pneumonia severity measures, CURB-65, and the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), for predicting mortality and persistent disability after pneumonia.

DESIGN

Single-center prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study included 190 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalized with pneumonia at a university hospital in Korea between October 2019 and September 2020.

METHODS

At admission, a 50-item deficit-accumulation FI (range: 0-1), CURB-65 (range: 0-5), and PSI (range: 0-395) scores were calculated. The outcomes were death and a composite outcome of death or decline in ability to perform daily activities and physical task 6 months later.

RESULTS

The median age was 79 years (interquartile range: 74-85), and 70 (36.8%) patients were women. The patients who died (n = 53) had higher FI (median, 0.46 vs 0.20; P < .011), CURB-65 score (median, 3 vs 2; P = .001), and PSI score (median, 149 vs 116; P < .001) than those who did not. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) for 6-month mortality were 0.69 (0.61-0.77) for the FI, 0.62 (0.53-0.71) for CURB-65, and 0.71 (0.62-0.79) for the PSI (P = .019). The C-statistics for the 6-month composite outcome were 0.73 (0.65-0.81) for the FI, 0.64 (0.55-0.73) for CURB-65, and 0.69 (0.60-0.77) for the PSI (P = .096). The C-statistics improved when the FI was added to CURB-65 (from 0.64 to 0.74; P = .003) and to the PSI (from 0.69 to 0.75; P = .044) for the composite outcome.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Measuring frailty provides additive value to widely used pneumonia severity measures in predicting death or persistent hospitalization-associated disability in older adults after pneumonia hospitalization. Early recognition of frailty may be useful to identify those who require in-hospital and post-acute care interventions for functional recovery.

Frailty and hospitalization-associated disability after pneumonia: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. The role of frailty assessment in older adults with pneumonia is not well defined. Our purpose of the study was to investigate 30-day clinical course and functional outcomes of pneumonia in older adults with different levels of frailty.

METHODS

A prospective cohort was conducted at a university hospital in Seoul, Korea with 176 patients who were 65 years or older and hospitalized with pneumonia. A 50-item deficit-accumulation frailty index (FI) (range: 0-1; robust < 0.15, pre-frail 0.15-0.24, mild-to-moderately frail 0.25-0.44, and severely frail ≥ 0.45) and the pneumonia severity CURB-65 score (range: 0-5) were measured. Primary outcome was death or functional decline, defined as worsening dependencies in 21 daily activities and physical tasks in 30 days. Secondary outcomes were intensive care unit admission, psychoactive drug use, nasogastric tube feeding, prolonged hospitalization (length of stay > 15 days), and discharge to a long-term care institution.

RESULTS

The population had a median age 79 (interquartile range, 75-84) years, 68 (38.6 %) female, and 45 (25.5 %) robust, 36 (47.4 %) pre-frail, 37 (21.0 %) mild-to-moderately frail, and 58 (33.0 %) severely frail patients. After adjusting for age, sex, and CURB-65, the risk of primary outcome for increasing frailty categories was 46.7 %, 61.1 %, 83.8 %, and 86.2 %, respectively (p = 0.014). The risk was higher in patients with frailty (FI ≥ 0.25) than without (FI < 0.25) among those with CURB-65 0-2 points (75 % vs. 52 %; p = 0.022) and among those with CURB-65 3-5 points (93 % vs. 65 %; p = 0.007). In addition, patients with greater frailty were more likely to require nasogastric tube feeding (robust vs. severe frailty: 13.9 % vs. 60.3 %) and prolonged hospitalization (18.2 % vs. 50.9 %) and discharge to a long-term care institution (4.4 % vs. 59.3 %) (p < 0.05 for all). Rates of intensive care unit admission and psychoactive drug use were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with frailty experience high rates of death or functional decline in 30 days of pneumonia hospitalization, regardless of the pneumonia severity. These results underscore the importance of frailty assessment in the acute care setting.

Frailty and hospitalization-associated disability after pneumonia: A prospective cohort study

Background

Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. The role of frailty assessment in older adults with pneumonia is not well defined. Our purpose of the study was to investigate 30-day clinical course and functional outcomes of pneumonia in older adults with different levels of frailty.

Methods

A prospective cohort was conducted at a university hospital in Seoul, Korea with 176 patients who were 65 years or older and hospitalized with pneumonia. A 50-item deficit-accumulation frailty index (FI) (range: 0–1; robust < 0.15, pre-frail 0.15–0.24, mild-to-moderately frail 0.25–0.44, and severely frail ≥ 0.45) and the pneumonia severity CURB-65 score (range: 0–5) were measured. Primary outcome was death or functional decline, defined as worsening dependencies in 21 daily activities and physical tasks in 30 days. Secondary outcomes were intensive care unit admission, psychoactive drug use, nasogastric tube feeding, prolonged hospitalization (length of stay > 15 days), and discharge to a long-term care institution.

Results

The population had a median age 79 (interquartile range, 75–84) years, 68 (38.6 %) female, and 45 (25.5 %) robust, 36 (47.4 %) pre-frail, 37 (21.0 %) mild-to-moderately frail, and 58 (33.0 %) severely frail patients. After adjusting for age, sex, and CURB-65, the risk of primary outcome for increasing frailty categories was 46.7 %, 61.1 %, 83.8 %, and 86.2 %, respectively (p = 0.014). The risk was higher in patients with frailty (FI ≥ 0.25) than without (FI < 0.25) among those with CURB-65 0–2 points (75 % vs. 52 %; p = 0.022) and among those with CURB-65 3–5 points (93 % vs. 65 %; p = 0.007). In addition, patients with greater frailty were more likely to require nasogastric tube feeding (robust vs. severe frailty: 13.9 % vs. 60.3 %) and prolonged hospitalization (18.2 % vs. 50.9 %) and discharge to a long-term care institution (4.4 % vs. 59.3 %) (p < 0.05 for all). Rates of intensive care unit admission and psychoactive drug use were similar.

Conclusions

Older adults with frailty experience high rates of death or functional decline in 30 days of pneumonia hospitalization, regardless of the pneumonia severity. These results underscore the importance of frailty assessment in the acute care setting.

The change in age distribution of CAP population in Korea with an estimation of clinical implications of increasing age threshold of current CURB65 and CRB65 scoring system

Background

CURB65 and CRB65 score are simple and popular methods to estimate the mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although there has been a global increase in life expectancy and population ageing, we are still using the same age threshold derived from patients in late 1990s to calculate the scores. We sought to assess the implication of using higher age threshold using Korean population data and a single center hospital records.

Methods

Using Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC), we analyzed annual age distribution of CAP patients in Korea from 2005 to 2013 and report how patients aged >65 years increased over time. We also assessed annual change in test characteristics of various age threshold in Korean CAP population. Using a single center hospital registry of CAP patients (2008–2017), we analyzed test characteristics of CURB65 and CRB65 scores with various age thresholds.

Results

116,481 CAP cases were identified from NHIS-NSC dataset. The proportion of patients aged >65 increased by 1.01% (95% CI, 0.70%-1.33%, P<0.001) every year. In the sample Korean population dataset, age threshold showed its peak AUROC (0.829) at 70. In the hospital dataset, 7,197 cases were included for analysis. The AUROC of both CRB65 and CURB65 was maximized at 71. When CRB71 was applied instead of CRB65 for hospital referral using score <1 to define a low-risk case, the potential hospital referral was significantly decreased (72.9% to 64.6%, P<0.001) without any significant increase in 1-month mortality in the low risk group (0.6% to 0.7%, P = 0.690).

Conclusion

There was a significant age shift in CAP population in Korea. Increasing the current age threshold of CURB65 (or CRB65) could be a viable option to reduce ever-increasing hospital referrals and admissions of CAP patients.

Mortality and Prognostic Prediction in Very Elderly Patients With Severe Pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

Although prognostic prediction scores for pneumonia such as CURB-65 score or pneumonia severity index (PSI) are widely used, there were a few studies in very elderly patients. The aim of the study was to validate prognostic prediction scores for severe pneumonia and investigate risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality of severe pneumonia in very elderly patients.

METHODS

During the 6-year study period (from October 2012 to May 2018), 160 patients aged 80 or older admitted to medical intensive unit were analyzed retrospectively. Pneumonia severity was evaluated using CURB-65 score, PSI, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, A-DROP, I-ROAD, UBMo index, SOAR score, and lactate. The outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The median age was 85 years (interquartile range: 82-88). Nursing home residents accounted for 71 (44.4%) and in-hospital mortality was 40 (25.0%). Logistic regression showed that chronic lung, mechanical ventilation, hemodialysis, and albumin were associated with in-hospital mortality of pneumonia. Using the receiver operating characteristics curve for predicting mortality, the area under the curve in pneumonia was 0.65 for the SOFA score, 0.61 for the CURB-65 score, 0.52 for the PSI, 0.58 for the A-DROP, 0.52 for the I-ROAD, 0.54 for UBMo index, 0.59 for SOAR score, and 0.65 for lactate.

CONCLUSION

The performances of the CURB-65 and PSI are not excellent in very elderly patients with pneumonia. Further studies are needed to improve the performance of prognostic prediction scores in elderly patients.

A New Prognosis Score to Predict Mortality After Acute Pneumonia in Very Elderly Patients

OBJECTIVES

Acute pneumonia (AP) induces an excess of mortality among the elderly. We evaluated the value of a new predictive biomarker index compared to usual prognosis scores for predicting in-hospital and 1-year mortalities in elderly inpatients with AP.

DESIGN

Retrospective study in 6 clinical departments of a university hospital.

SETTING

Burgundy university hospital (France).

PARTICIPANTS

All patients aged 75 and over with AP and hospitalized between January 1 and June 30, 2013, in the departments of medicine (5) and intensive care (1) of our university hospital.

MEASUREMENTS

A new index, which we named UBMo, was created by multiplying the uremia (U in the formula) by the N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) plasmatic rate (B), divided by the monocyte count (Mo).

RESULTS

Among the 217 patients included, there were 138 community-acquired pneumonia, 56 nursing home-acquired pneumonia, and 23 hospital-acquired pneumonia. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were respectively 19.8% and 43.8%. In multivariate analysis, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), unlike CURB-65 (confusion, urea >7 mmol/L, respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min, blood pressure <90 mmHg systolic or ≤60 mmHg diastolic, age ≥65) score, was associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. UBMo index performed better than PSI and CURB-65 scores in predicting both in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. For in-hospital mortality, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.94), 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.80), and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.54-0.72), respectively, for the 3 scores. For 1-year mortality, the AUCs were 0.93 (95% CI = 0.89-0.98), 0.66 (95% CI = 0.59-0.74), and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50-0.66), respectively, for the 3 scores. The cut point for the UBMo index of 20,000 × 10^-9 ng·mmol/L had a sensitivity of 93.1% and 80.9% and a specificity of 76.3% and 95.8%, respectively, for in-hospital and 1-year mortalities.

CONCLUSION

If confirmed by prospective studies, the UBMo index appears very efficient in identifying patients at high risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities after an AP.