Predator population dynamics under a cyclic prey regime: numerical responses, demographic parameters and growth rates

Sex ratio distorting microbes exacerbate arthropod extinction risk in variable environments

Maternally-inherited sex ratio distorting microbes (SRDMs) are common among arthropod species. Typically, these microbes cause female-biased sex ratios in host broods, either by; killing male offspring, feminising male offspring, or inducing parthenogenesis. As a result, infected populations can experience drastic ecological and evolutionary change. The mechanism by which SRDMs operate is likely to alter their impact on host evolutionary ecology; despite this, the current literature is heavily biased towards a single mechanism of sex ratio distortion, male-killing. Furthermore, amidst the growing concerns surrounding the loss of arthropod diversity, research into the impact of SRDMs on the viability of arthropod populations is generally lacking. In this study, using a theoretical approach, we model the epidemiology of an understudied mechanism of microbially-induced sex ratio distortion-feminisation-to ask an understudied question-how do SRDMs impact extinction risk in a changing environment? We constructed an individual-based model and measured host population extinction risk under various environmental and epidemiological scenarios. We also used our model to identify the precise mechanism modulating extinction. We find that the presence of feminisers increases host population extinction risk, an effect that is exacerbated in highly variable environments. We also identified transmission rate as the dominant epidemiological trait responsible for driving extinction. Finally, our model shows that sex ratio skew is the mechanism driving extinction. We highlight feminisers and, more broadly, SRDMs as important determinants of the resilience of arthropod populations to environmental change.

Do human infrastructures shape nest distribution in the landscape depending on individual personality in a farmland bird of prey?

Individuals' distribution across habitats may depend on their personality. Human activities and infrastructures are critical elements of the landscape that may impact the habitat selection process. However, depending on their personality, individuals may respond differently to these unnatural elements. In the present study, we first investigated whether some human infrastructures (buildings, roads and paths) shaped Montagu's harrier nest spatial distribution in the landscape according to female personality (boldness). Second, we tested if the reproductive success of females depended on their boldness and nest location regarding infrastructures. Using a long-term (19 years) dataset, we calculated, for each infrastructure type, the distance from each nest to the nearest infrastructure and the infrastructure density around the nest. We tested the effects of female boldness (bold vs. shy) and its interaction with egg-laying date on these six metrics. Nest location in the landscape depended on female personality and on some human infrastructures: the building density was smaller around nests from shy females than from bold ones. Nest distribution related to other infrastructure metrics did not depend on female boldness. The pattern related to building density is consistent with some habitat choice hypotheses, which are discussed. Path density around nests negatively affected reproductive success regardless of female boldness, and late breeders nested further away from paths than early breeders. Human activities on paths (more common later in the season) could lead to disturbance and a decrease in parental care, reducing reproductive success. Increasing human presence in farmlands implies a need to better understand its impact on population composition, in terms of personality. Our results suggest that individual behavioural differences should be taken into account in studies assessing the effects of human disturbance on animal populations, to propose more appropriate conservation measures.

Voltage-Gated Sodium Channel (Vgsc) Mutation-Based Pyrethroid Resistance in Aedes aegypti Populations of Three Endemic Dengue Risk Areas of Sri Lanka

Background

Pyrethroid insecticides are widely used in many countries for chemical-based control of Ae. aegypti. Regardless of their efficacy, the constant use of insecticides has induced insecticide resistance mechanisms, such as knockdown resistance (kdr) in mosquitoes. Sri Lankan Vector Controlling Entities (VCE) have been using a variety of pyrethroid insecticides as the primary approach for dengue control. However, development of any resistance among the Aedes mosquitoes has been limitedly studied in the country. Therefore, the current study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of F1534C, V1016G, and S989P mutations among Ae. aegypti mosquito populations in three dengue endemic high-risk regions of Sri Lanka. Methodology. Immature (both pupae and larvae) stages of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were collected from Colombo, Gampaha, and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka from February 2018 to December 2019. Polymerase Chain Reaction- (PCR-) based assay for molecular genotyping of mutations was performed to identify the prevalence of kdr mutations in collected Ae. aegypti populations, separately. The frequencies of the resistant and susceptible kdr alleles were determined by using the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium.

Results

The Ae. aegypti populations from Colombo, Gampaha, and Kandy districts showed 46%, 42%, and 22% of F1534C mutation allele frequencies, along with 15%, 12%, and 6% of V1016G mutation allele frequencies, respectively. The mutation allele frequencies of S989 in Colombo, Gampaha, and Kandy districts were 9.5%, 8.5%, and 4.5%, respectively. The wild-type (PP) genotype remained predominant within all the three districts, whereas the homogenous (QQ) mutation genotype occurred only in minority. The abundance of Q allele frequency in Ae. aegypti mosquitoes was relatively higher for all the three mutations in Colombo.

Conclusions

The findings clearly indicate that long-term insecticide applications and multiple use of pyrethroids have led to the acquisition of kdr mutations, leading to the development of insecticide resistance among local Ae. aegypti populations, especially in the Colombo and Gampaha districts. Therefore, evaluation of the prevalence levels of these kdr mutations highlights the necessity for shifting towards novel vector control strategies.

Assortative pairing for boldness and consequences for reproductive success in Montagu’s harrier

Behavioural combination within pairs depending on personality and plasticity might influence reproductive success. However, studies testing this hypothesis are rare, especially in the case of monogamous species with bi-parental care in which the sexes exhibit different behavioural roles. In this study, we investigated the pairing patterns for both boldness and boldness plasticity in Montagu’s harriers (Circus pygargus), a species with sex-specific care, and the consequences for their reproductive success. We measured individual boldness and plasticity for both sexes, and we assessed the pairing pattern in the Montagu’s harrier population for these two traits. We calculated four indices to characterize the behavioural association within pairs: pair boldness, boldness similarity within pairs, pair plasticity and plasticity similarity within pairs. The relationship between the behaviour of the parents and the reproductive success was then tested through these four indices. We found a pattern of assortative pairing based on both boldness and plasticity in the Montagu’s harrier population. Within-pair similarity of plasticity had a significant effect on the reproductive success, which was higher for less similar pairs than for more similar pairs. Our results question the origin of this pairing pattern and suggest that ecological constraint and not sexual selection could be the major driver.

The hidden effect of inadvertent social information use on fluctuating predator–prey dynamics

Understanding biotic interactions and abiotic forces that govern population regulation is crucial for predicting stability from both theoretical and applied perspectives. In recent years, social information has been proposed to profoundly affect the dynamics of populations and facilitate the coexistence of interacting species. However, we have limited knowledge about how social information use influences cyclic and non-cyclic fluctuations of populations and if any population-level effects can be expected in species where individuals do not form social groups. In this study, I built individual-based models in a factorial design to investigate how predator avoidance behaviour and associated inadvertent social information (ISI) use alters the predictions of classical predator–prey population models in non-grouping (e.g., randomly moving) animals. Simulation results showed that ISI use in prey stabilized population dynamics by disrupting high-amplitude cyclic fluctuations in both predator and prey populations. Moreover, it also decreased the strength of the negative feedback of second-order dependence between predator and prey. I propose that if social cues are commonly used sources of information in animals regardless of the level of social organization, then similar social information-mediated effects on trophic interactions and population dynamics may be prevalent in natural communities.

Pulsed food resources affect reproduction but not adult apparent survival in arctic foxes

As top or mesopredators, carnivores play a key role in food webs. Their survival and reproduction are usually thought to be influenced by prey availability. However, simultaneous monitoring of prey and predators is difficult, making it challenging to evaluate the impacts of prey on carnivores' demography. Using 13 years of field data on arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Canadian High Arctic and a capture-recapture multi-event statistical approach, we investigated the hypothesis that increases in lemming abundance (a cyclic and unpredictable food source) and goose colony proximity (a stable but spatially and temporally limited food source) would be associated with increased apparent survival and reproduction probabilities of adults. Adult apparent survival varied greatly across years (0.13-1.00) but was neither affected by lemming nor goose variations in abundance. However, reproduction probabilities were strongly influenced by both lemming abundance and access to the goose colony. A fox breeding in the best conditions of food availability (year of high lemming density inside the goose colony) had a reproduction probability four times higher than one experiencing the worst conditions (year of low lemming density outside the goose colony). Breeding status of individuals also played a role, with breeders having a 10-20% higher probability of survival and 30% higher probability of reproduction the following year than non-breeders. As the Arctic ecosystem changes due to increased temperatures and species ranges, this study will allow better predictions of predator responses to management or environmental changes and a better understanding of ecosystem functioning.

Proximate causes and fitness consequences of double brooding in female barn owls

Multiple brooding, reproducing twice or more per year, is an important component of life-history strategies. However, what proximate factors drive the frequency of multiple brooding and its fitness consequences for parents and offspring remains poorly known. Using long-term longitudinal data, we investigated double brooding in a barn owl population in France. We assessed the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic factors and the consequences of double brooding on fledgling recruitment and female lifetime reproductive success. The occurrence of double brooding in the population, ranging from 0 to 87%, was positively related to the number of rodent prey stored at the nest. Females laying early in the season were more likely to breed twice and the probability of double brooding increased with smaller initial brood size, female age and the storage of wood mice at the nest early in the season. Fledglings from first broods recruited more often (8.2%) than those from single broods (3.8%) or second broods (3.3%), but this was primarily the consequence of laying dates, not brood type per se. Females producing two broods within a year, at least once in their lifetime, had higher lifetime reproductive success and produced more local recruits than females that did not (15.6 ± 8.1 vs. 6.1 ± 3.8 fledglings, 0.96 ± 1.2 vs. 0.24 ± 0.6 recruits). Our results suggests that the fitness benefits of double brooding exceed costs and that within-year variability in double brooding may be related to heterogeneity in individual/territory quality.

Predatory efficacy of five locally available copepods on Aedes larvae under laboratory settings: An approach towards bio-control of dengue in Sri Lanka

Many countries are in search of more effective and sustainable methods for controlling dengue vectors, due to undeniable inefficiencies in chemical and mechanical vector control methods. Bio-control of vectors by copepods is an ideal method of using interactions in the natural ecosystem for vector management, with minimum consequences on the environment. Current study determined the predatory efficacy of five locally abundant copepod species on, Aedes larvae under laboratory conditions. Copepods were collected from the pre-identified locations within the districts of Gampaha and Kandy, and identified morphologically. Individual species of copepods were maintained as separate colonies with Paramecium culture and wheat grain as supplementary food. Five adult copepods of each species was introduced into separate containers with 200 larvae (1st instar) of Aedes aegypti. Number of larvae survived in containers were enumerated at 3 hour intervals within a duration of 24 hours. Each experiment was repeated five times. The same procedure was followed for Ae. albopictus. Significance in the variations among predation rates was evaluated with General Linear Modelling (GLM) followed by Tukey's pair-wise comparison in SPSS (version 23). Significant variations in predation rates of studied copepod species were reported (p<0.05), whereby M. leuckarti indicated the highest followed by M. scrassus, while C. languides indicated the lowest predatory efficacy. The effect of different Aedes larval species on the predation rates of copepods remained significant (p<0.05), even though the effect on predatory efficiency was not significant. Based on the findings, both M. leuckarti and M. scrassus, with the highest predatory efficiencies, could be recommended as potential candidates for biological controlling of Aedes vectors in Sri Lanka.

Encoding lateralization of jump kinematics and eye use in a locust via bio-robotic artifacts

The effect of previous exposure to lateral sensory stimuli in shaping the response to subsequent symmetric stimuli represents an important overlooked issue in neuroethology, with special reference to arthropods. In this research, we investigated the hypothesis to 'programme' jumping escape direction as well as surveillance orientation in young and adult individuals of Locusta migratoria as an adaptive consequence of prior exposure to directional-biased predator approaches generated by a robotic leopard gecko representing Eublepharis macularius The manipulation of the jumping escape direction was successfully achieved in young locusts, although young L. migratoria did not exhibit innately lateralized jumping escapes. Jumping escape direction was also successfully manipulated in adult locusts, which exhibited innate lateralized jumping escape at the individual level. The innate lateralization of each instar of L. migratoria in using a preferential eye during surveillance was not affected by prior lateralized exposure to the robotic gecko. Our results indicate a high plasticity of the escape motor outputs that are occurring almost in real time with the perceived stimuli, making them greatly adaptable and compliant to environmental changes in order to be effective and reliable. In addition, surveillance lateralization innately occurs at population level in each instar of L. migratoria Therefore, its low forgeability by environmental factors would avoid disorganization at swarm level and improve swarm coordination during group tasks. These findings are consistent with the fact that, as in vertebrates, in insects the right hemisphere is specialized in controlling fear and escape functions.

Bottom-up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator-prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator-prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long-term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom-up processes, with little evidence of top-down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom-up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle-hare-ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator-prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top-down control.

Escape and surveillance asymmetries in locusts exposed to a Guinea fowl-mimicking robot predator

Escape and surveillance responses to predators are lateralized in several vertebrate species. However, little is known on the laterality of escapes and predator surveillance in arthropods. In this study, we investigated the lateralization of escape and surveillance responses in young instars and adults of Locusta migratoria during biomimetic interactions with a robot-predator inspired to the Guinea fowl, Numida meleagris. Results showed individual-level lateralization in the jumping escape of locusts exposed to the robot-predator attack. The laterality of this response was higher in L. migratoria adults over young instars. Furthermore, population-level lateralization of predator surveillance was found testing both L. migratoria adults and young instars; locusts used the right compound eye to oversee the robot-predator. Right-biased individuals were more stationary over left-biased ones during surveillance of the robot-predator. Individual-level lateralization could avoid predictability during the jumping escape. Population-level lateralization may improve coordination in the swarm during specific group tasks such as predator surveillance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of lateralized predator-prey interactions in insects. Our findings outline the possibility of using biomimetic robots to study predator-prey interaction, avoiding the use of real predators, thus achieving standardized experimental conditions to investigate complex and flexible behaviours.

Individual variation in behavioural responsiveness to humans leads to differences in breeding success and long-term population phenotypic changes

Whether human disturbance can lead to directional selection and phenotypic change in behaviour in species with limited behavioural plasticity is poorly understood in wild animal populations. Using a 19-year study on Montagu's harrier, we report a long-term increase in boldness towards humans during nest visits. The probability of females fleeing or being passive during nest visits decreased, while defence intensity steadily increased over the study period. These behavioural responses towards humans were significantly repeatable. The phenotypic composition of the breeding population changed throughout the study period (4-5 harrier generations), with a gradual disappearance of shy individuals, leading to a greater proportion of bolder ones and a more behaviourally homogeneous population. We further show that nest visit frequency increased nest failure probability and reduced productivity of shy females, but not of bold ones. Long-term research or conservation programmes needing nest visits can therefore lead to subtle but relevant population compositional changes that require further attention.

Barn Owl Productivity Response to Variability of Vole Populations

We studied the response of the barn owl annual productivity to the common vole population numbers and variability to test the effects of environmental stochasticity on their life histories. Current theory predicts that temporal environmental variability can affect long-term nonlinear responses (e.g., production of young) both positively and negatively, depending on the shape of the relationship between the response and environmental variables. At the level of the Czech Republic, we examined the shape of the relationship between the annual sum of fledglings (annual productivity) and vole numbers in both non-detrended and detrended data. At the districts’ level, we explored whether the degree of synchrony (measured by the correlation coefficient) and the strength of the productivity response increase (measured by the regression coefficient) in areas with higher vole population variability measured by the s-index. We found that the owls’ annual productivity increased linearly with vole numbers in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, based on district data, we also found that synchrony between dynamics in owls’ reproductive output and vole numbers increased with vole population variability. However, the strength of the response was not affected by the vole population variability. Additionally, we have shown that detrending remarkably increases the Taylor’s exponent b relating variance to mean in vole time series, thereby reversing the relationship between the coefficient of variation and the mean. This shift was not responsible for the increased synchrony with vole population variability. Instead, we suggest that higher synchrony could result from high food specialization of owls on the common vole in areas with highly fluctuating vole populations.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.

Vegetation height and egg coloration differentially affect predation rate and overheating risk: an experimental test mimicking a ground-nesting bird

Avian eggs need to be laid in protected environments to develop and survive. Nest predation is known as the main cause of breeding failure for many birds, but nest microclimate conditions are also important for embryo development. These two selective pressures are particularly marked in ground-nesting birds. Vegetation height has been shown to be a critical factor for nest-site selection in ground-nesting birds because it can counteract predation and overheating simultaneously. It is therefore difficult to disentangle the respective influences of these risks on selection of a particular nest vegetation height. To develop a conceptual framework for understanding and predicting the relative effects of vegetation on predation and nest microclimate during a breeding season, we used vegetation height to manipulate differentially these two risks. We therefore exposed artificial nests to a wide range of vegetation heights, replicated the experimental tests during spring, and manipulated egg color to estimate predation risk. We confirmed that tall vegetation is relevant to protect unattended eggs against both risks. Whereas predation risk is stable for a given vegetation height, overheating risk presents inter- and intra-seasonal variations. Therefore, over a breeding season, for a given vegetation height, the respective strengths of the two risks are unbalanced and depends on egg coloration. The breeding strategy of ground-nesting birds thus should have been shaped by both selective pressures, but the ultimate choice may depend on the species-specific laying dates and alternative behavioral strategies for protecting the clutch. This study provides new perspectives to investigate avian parental behaviour.

Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park

1. For large predators living in seasonal environments, patterns of predation are likely to vary among seasons because of related changes in prey vulnerability. Variation in prey vulnerability underlies the influence of predators on prey populations and the response of predators to seasonal variation in rates of biomass acquisition. Despite its importance, seasonal variation in predation is poorly understood. 2. We assessed seasonal variation in prey composition and kill rate for wolves Canis lupus living on the Northern Range (NR) of Yellowstone National Park. Our assessment was based on data collected over 14 winters (1995-2009) and five spring-summers between 2004 and 2009. 3. The species composition of wolf-killed prey and the age and sex composition of wolf-killed elk Cervus elaphus (the primary prey for NR wolves) varied among seasons. 4. One's understanding of predation depends critically on the metric used to quantify kill rate. For example, kill rate was greatest in summer when quantified as the number of ungulates acquired per wolf per day, and least during summer when kill rate was quantified as the biomass acquired per wolf per day. This finding contradicts previous research that suggests that rates of biomass acquisition for large terrestrial carnivores tend not to vary among seasons. 5. Kill rates were not well correlated among seasons. For example, knowing that early-winter kill rate is higher than average (compared with other early winters) provides little basis for anticipating whether kill rates a few months later during late winter will be higher or lower than average (compared with other late winters). This observation indicates how observing, for example, higher-than-average kill rates throughout any particular season is an unreliable basis for inferring that the year-round average kill rate would be higher than average. 6. Our work shows how a large carnivore living in a seasonal environment displays marked seasonal variation in predation because of changes in prey vulnerability. Patterns of wolf predation were influenced by the nutritional condition of adult elk and the availability of smaller prey (i.e. elk calves, deer). We discuss how these patterns affect our overall understanding of predator and prey population dynamics.

Demographic history, genetic structure and gene flow in a steppe-associated raptor species

Background

Environmental preferences and past climatic changes may determine the length of time during which a species range has contracted or expanded from refugia, thereby influencing levels of genetic diversification. Connectivity among populations of steppe-associated taxa might have been maximal during the long glacial periods, and interrupted only during the shorter interglacial phases, potentially resulting in low levels of genetic differentiation among populations. We investigated this hypothesis by exploring patterns of genetic diversity, past demography and gene flow in a raptor species characteristic of steppes, the Montagu's harrier (Circus pygargus), using mitochondrial DNA data from 13 breeding populations and two wintering populations.

Results

Consistent with our hypothesis, Montagu's harrier has relatively low genetic variation at the mitochondrial DNA. The highest levels of genetic diversity were found in coastal Spain, France and central Asia. These areas, which were open landscapes during the Holocene, may have acted as refugia when most of the European continent was covered by forests. We found significant genetic differentiation between two population groups, at the SW and NE parts of the species' range. Two events of past population growth were detected, and occurred ca. 7500-5500 and ca. 3500-1000 years BP in the SW and NE part of the range respectively. These events were likely associated with vegetation shifts caused by climate and human-induced changes during the Holocene.

Conclusions

The relative genetic homogeneity observed across populations of this steppe raptor may be explained by a short isolation time, relatively recent population expansions and a relaxed philopatry. We highlight the importance of considering the consequence of isolation and colonization processes in order to better understand the evolutionary history of steppe species.