Systematic review: the prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein following liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

SIMAP500: A novel risk score to identify recipients at higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT) has a devastating influence on recipients’ survival; however, the risk of recurrence is not routinely stratified. Risk stratification is vital with a long LT waiting time, as that could influence the recurrence despite strict listing criteria.

AIM

This study aims to identify predictors of recurrence and develop a novel risk prediction score to forecast HCC recurrence following LT.

METHODS

A retrospective review of LT for HCC recipients at University Hospitals Birmingham between July 2011 and February 2020. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify recurrence predictors, based on which the novel SIMAP500 (satellite nodules, increase in size, microvascular invasion, AFP > 500, poor differentiation) risk score was proposed.

RESULTS

234 LTs for HCC were performed with a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Recurrence developed in 25 patients (10.7%). On univariate analyses, RETREAT score > 3, α-fetoprotein (AFP) at listing 100-500 and > 500, bridging, increased tumour size between imaging at the listing time and explant histology, increase in the size of viable tumour between listing and explant, presence of satellite nodules, micro- and macrovascular invasion on explant and poor differentiation of tumours were significantly associated with recurrence, based on which, the SIMAP500 risk score is proposed. The SIMAP500 demonstrated an excellent predictive ability (c-index = 0.803) and outperformed the RETREAT score (c-index = 0.73). SIMAP500 is indicative of the time to disease recurrence.

CONCLUSION

SIMAP500 risk score identifies the LT recipients at risk of HCC recurrence. Risk stratification allows patient-centric post-transplant surveillance programs. Further validation of the score is recommended.

Development of a nomogram for predicting liver transplantation prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

At present, liver transplantation (LT) is one of the best treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Accurately predicting the survival status after LT can significantly improve the survival rate after LT, and ensure the best way to make rational use of liver organs.

AIM

To develop a model for predicting prognosis after LT in patients with HCC.

METHODS

Clinical data and follow-up information of 160 patients with HCC who underwent LT were collected and evaluated. The expression levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, Golgi protein 73, cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 and M65 were measured using a fully automated chemiluminescence analyzer. The best cutoff value of biomarkers was determined using the Youden index. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors. A forest model was constructed using the random forest method. We evaluated the accuracy of the nomogram using the area under the curve, using the calibration curve to assess consistency. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomograms.

RESULTS

The total tumor diameter (TTD), vascular invasion (VI), AFP, and cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 (CK18-M30) were identified as important risk factors for outcome after LT. The nomogram had a higher predictive accuracy than the Milan, University of California, San Francisco, and Hangzhou criteria. The calibration curve analyses indicated a good fit. The survival and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of high-risk groups were significantly lower than those of low- and middle-risk groups (P < 0.001). The DCA shows that the model has better clinical practicability.

CONCLUSION

The study developed a predictive nomogram based on TTD, VI, AFP, and CK18-M30 that could accurately predict overall survival and RFS after LT. It can screen for patients with better postoperative prognosis, and improve long-term survival for LT patients.

Prognostic Role of Basal Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Suitable for Curative Treatment

Background and Objectives: Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a recognized affordable oncological marker in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, AFP's prognostic role has been assessed mainly after specific treatments, and no unanimously recognized cut-offs have been identified. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic role of different basal AFP cut-offs on survival and HCC course. Materials and Methods: In this single-center, retrospective study, all patients newly diagnosed with HCC between January 2009 and December 2021 were prospectively enrolled. Only patients suitable for curative HCC treatments were included in the analyses. Patients were stratified according to AFP cut-offs of 20, 200, 400, and 1000 ng/mL, which were correlated with survival outcomes and clinical parameters. Results: A total of 266 patients were analyzed, with a median follow-up time of 41.5 months. Median overall survival (OS) of all cohort was 43 months. At the multivariate Cox-regression analysis, AFP value ≥ 1000 ng/mL correlated with impaired OS (1-year OS: 67% vs. 88%, 5-year OS: 1% vs. 43%; p = 0.005); other risk factors were tumor dimension ≥ 5 cm (HR 1.73; p = 0.002), Child-Pugh class B-C (HR 1.72; p = 0.002), BCLC stage A (vs. 0) (HR 2.4; p = 0.011), and malignant portal vein thrombosis (HR 2.57; p = 0.007). AFP ≥ 1000 ng/mL was also associated with a reduced recurrence-free survival (HR 2.0; p = 0.038), while starting from AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL, a correlation with development of HCC metastases over time (HR 3.5; p = 0.002) was seen. AFP values ≥ 20 ng/mL significantly correlated with tumor size and higher histological grading; starting from AFP values ≥ 400 ng/mL, a significant correlation with Child-Pugh class B-C and female gender was also observed. Conclusions: Basal AFP correlates with relevant outcomes in patients with HCC. It could help identify patients at a higher risk of worse prognosis who might benefit from personalized surveillance and treatment programs. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence and Mortality Rate Post Liver Transplantation: Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review of Real-World Evidence

Simple Summary

This is a systematic and meta-analysis study that looked at the hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence rate and its risk factors after liver transplantation. The recurrence rate, overall survival rate, and mortality rates in HCC patients post-liver transplantation remain relatively high. Significant regional differences exist in the prevalence of the recurrence, overall survival, and mortality rates. These findings will be of valuable guidance both for clinicians considering patients for an LT, and for providing tailored post-transplant HCC recurrence counselling to different populations with different risk levels.

Abstract

Background: liver transplantation (LT) is the best curative option for eligible patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however recurrence remains a major concern. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of HCC recurrence. Methods: studies were selected using PubMed, Epistemonikas, and Google Scholar databases published from inception to 15 May 2022 and a meta-analysis of the proportions was conducted. Observational studies reporting the prevalence of recurrent HCC after an LT were included, with the analysis being stratified by an adherence to the Milan criteria (MC), geographical region, AFP levels, and donor type. Results: out of 4081 articles, 125 were included in the study. The prevalence of recurrent HCC was 17% (CI: 15–19). Patients beyond the MC were more likely to recur than patients within the MC. Asian populations had the greatest prevalence of HCC recurrence (21%; CI: 18–24), whereas North American populations had the lowest recurrence (10%; CI: 7–12). The mortality rate after HCC recurrence was 9%; CI: 8–11. North American populations had the greatest prevalence of mortality with 11% (CI: 5–17). Conclusions: the recurrence, overall survival, and mortality rates among patients with HCC post-LT remains high, with substantial differences between regions.

Lower Alpha-Fetoprotein Threshold of 500 ng/mL for Liver Transplantation May Improve Posttransplant Outcomes in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Under current United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) policy, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels ≥1000 ng/mL are required to show a reduction in AFP level to <500 ng/mL before liver transplantation (LT). However, effects of AFP reduction on post-LT HCC outcomes among patients with HCC with moderately elevated AFP levels between 100 and <1000 ng/mL are unclear. Adults in the UNOS registry who underwent LTs from January 2005 to September 2015 with initial AFP levels of 100 to 999 ng/mL at listing for Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exceptions were included. Primary predictor was AFP level at LT, categorized as <100, 100 to 499, or ≥500 ng/mL, and patients with only 1 recorded pre-LT AFP value (AFP 1-value). Survival was compared using the Kaplan-Meier curve method. Factors associated with post-LT survival and HCC recurrence were assessed in a multivariable Cox regression model. Among 1766 included patients, 50.2% had AFP 1-value, followed by 24.7%, 18.9%, and 6.2% with AFP levels <100, 100 to 499, and ≥500 ng/mL, respectively. The 5-year post-LT survival rate was lowest in the AFP ≥500 category, at 56.1%, compared with 72.7%, 70.4%, and 65.6% in the AFP <100, 100 to 499 ng/mL, and AFP 1-value categories, respectively. In multivariable analysis, AFP ≥500 ng/mL at LT was associated with a greater risk of post-LT death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.1) and HCC recurrence (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1) when compared with the AFP <100 ng/mL category; other significant variables included donor risk index, age, race/ethnicity, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, and tumor diameter. Among AFP levels ≥500 ng/mL at LT, 40.4% had AFP levels ≥1000, but no difference in post-LT survival or recurrence was seen between those patients with AFP levels < or ≥1000 ng/mL. Mandating AFP <500 ng/mL at LT for all patients, not only for those with initial AFP levels ≥1000 ng/mL, may improve post-LT outcomes and can be considered in future UNOS policy.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: How Should We Improve the Thresholds?

Simple Summary

The ideal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is liver transplantation (LT), which both eliminates the HCC and cures the diseased liver. Once considered an experimental treatment with dismal survival rates, LT for HCC entered a new era with the establishment of the Milan criteria over 20 years ago. However, over the last two decades, the Milan criteria, which are based on tumor morphology, have come under intense scrutiny and are now largely regarded as too restrictive, and limit the access of transplantation for many patients who would otherwise achieve good clinical outcomes. The liver transplant community has been making every effort to reach a goal of establishing more reliable selection criteria. This article addresses how the criteria have been extended, as well as the concept of pre-transplant down-staging to maximize the eligibility.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third highest cause of cancer-related mortality, and liver transplantation is the ideal treatment for this disease. The Milan criteria provided the opportunity for HCC patients to undergo LT with favorable outcomes and have been the international gold standard and benchmark. With the accumulation of data, however, the Milan criteria are not regarded as too restrictive. After the implementation of the Milan criteria, many extended criteria have been proposed, which increases the limitations regarding the morphological tumor burden, and incorporates the tumor’s biological behavior using surrogate markers. The paradigm for the patient selection for LT appears to be shifting from morphologic criteria to a combination of biologic, histologic, and morphologic criteria, and to the establishment of a model for predicting post-transplant recurrence and outcomes. This review article aims to characterize the various patient selection criteria for LT, with reference to several surrogate markers for the biological behavior of HCC (e.g., AFP, PIVKA-II, NLR, 18F-FDG PET/CT, liquid biopsy), and the response to locoregional therapy. Furthermore, the allocation rules in each country and the present evidence on the role of down-staging large tumors are addressed.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Currently, most transplant centres worldwide accept patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent successful downstaging. Concurrently, the effectiveness of radiological and systemic therapies used for the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma are increasing. It is now more frequently observed that candidates for liver transplantation have an excellent response to downstaging, even if the baseline stage was well beyond the transplantable tumour. Downstaged patients have a higher risk of dropout from the waiting list and post-transplant recurrence if not transplanted in a short time. Since an increasing number of downstaged patients affects the waitlist dynamics, the definition of upper limits of downstaging is becoming a crucial issue. In this narrative review, we summarise current evidence on the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation, including downstaging of patients with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic metastasis at presentation and employment of the new systemic treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60–70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to “extended” downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Liver Transplantation in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma beyond the Milan Criteria: A Comprehensive Review

The Milan criteria (MC) were developed more than 20 years ago and are still considered the benchmark for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the strict application of MC might exclude some patients who may receive a clinical benefit of LT. Several expanded criteria have been proposed. Some of these consider pretransplant morphological and biological variables of the tumor, others consider post-LT variables such as the histology of the tumor, and others combine pre- and post-LT variables. More recently, the HCC response to locoregional treatments before transplantation emerged as a surrogate marker of the biological aggressiveness of the tumor to be used as a better selection criterion for LT in patients beyond the MC at presentation. This essential review aims to present the current data on the pretransplant selection criteria for LT in patients with HCC exceeding the MC at presentation based on morphological and histological characteristics of the tumor and to critically discuss those that have been validated in clinical practice. Moreover, the role of HCC biological markers and the tumor response to downstaging procedures as new tools for selecting patients with a tumor burden outside of the MC for LT is evaluated.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Downstaging to Liver Transplantation as Curative Therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks among the leading cancer-related causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Downstaging of HCC has prevailed as a key method to curative therapy for patients who present with unresectable HCC outside of the listing criteria for liver transplantation (LT). Even though LT paves the way to lifesaving curative therapy for HCC, perpetually severe organ shortage limits its broader application. Debate over the optimal protocol and assessment of response to downstaging treatment has fueled immense research activity and is pushing the boundaries of LT candidate selection criteria. The implicit obligation of refining downstaging protocol is to ensure the maximization of the transplant survival benefit by taking into account the waitlist life expectancy. In the following review, we critically discuss strategies to best optimize downstaging HCC to LT on the basis of existing literature.

Association of Postoperative Biomarker Response with Recurrence and Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and High Alpha-Fetoprotein Expressions (>400 ng/ml)

Background

High alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) expressions (>400 ng/mL) are associated with poor oncological characteristics for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prognosis after liver resection for high-AFP HCC is poorly studied. To investigate long-term recurrence and survival after hepatectomy for high-AFP HCC, and to identify the predictive value of postoperative incomplete biomarker response (IBR) on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Methods

Patients undergoing curative resection for high-AFP HCC were analyzed. According to the decline magnitude of serum AFP as measured at first follow-up (4~6 weeks after surgery), all patients were divided into the complete biomarker response (CBR) and IBR groups. Characteristics, recurrence, and survival rates were compared. Univariate and Multivariate Cox-regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with poorer OS and RFS after liver resection for high-AFP HCC.

Results

Among 549 patients, the overall and early recurrence rates in patients with IBR were significantly higher than patients with CBR (97.8%vs.56.4%, and 92.5%vs.33.3%, both P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, postoperative IBR was the strongest risk factor with the highest hazard ratio in predicting poor OS (HR 2.97; 95% CI 2.49~3.45; P<0.001) and RFS (HR 4.29; 95% CI 3.31~5.55; P<0.001).

Conclusion

Postoperative biomarker response of serum AFP can be used in predicting recurrence and survival for high-AFP HCC patients. Once postoperative IBR was identified at first follow-up, subsequent enhanced recurrence surveillance and available treatments against recurrence should actively be considered.

Efficacy of Local Therapy for Oligometastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

Purpose

With respect to various solid cancers, patients with oligometastasis may benefit from local therapy. However, this approach is not widely accepted for hepatocellular carcinoma. This study investigated the efficacy of local therapy for oligometastatic lesions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patients and Methods

The study included 69 hepatocellular carcinoma patients presenting with oligometastasis to the lung. Characteristics of the patients and treatment options for metastatic lesions were reviewed, and a survival analysis was performed. After propensity score matching, overall survival and progression-free survival were calculated from the time of pulmonary metastasis detection. Factors predicting prognosis were analyzed using a multivariate Cox regression analysis.

Results

After propensity score matching, 58 patients with Child-Pugh grade A disease were selected. Among them, 22 patients were treated with systemic therapy alone while 36 patients received local therapy or a combination of local and systemic therapies for metastatic lesions. Survival rates were higher in patients receiving local therapy than in those receiving systemic therapy (2-year overall survival rate, 66.6 vs 31.2%, p<0.001; 2-year progression-free survival rate, 47.0 vs 10.6%, p=0.005). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, alpha-fetoprotein levels less than 400 ng/mL and the use of local therapy for metastatic lesions were found to be significant favorable prognostic factors.

Conclusion

Local therapy for metastatic lesions improved the oncologic outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with pulmonary oligometastasis.

A National Survey of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Practices Following Liver Transplantation

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important predictor of survival after liver transplantation (LT). Recent studies show that early diagnosis, aggressive treatment, and surveillance may improve outcomes after HCC recurrence. We sought to determine the current practices and policies regarding surveillance for HCC recurrence after LT.

Methods

We conducted a web-based national survey of adult liver transplant centers in the United States to capture center-specific details of HCC surveillance post-LT. Responses were analyzed to generate numerical and graphical summaries.

Results

Of 101 eligible adult liver transplant centers, 48 (48%) centers across the United States responded to the survey. Among the participating centers, 79% stratified transplant recipients for HCC recurrence risk, while 19% did not have any risk stratification protocol. Explant microvascular invasion (mVI) was the most common factor used in risk stratification. Use of pretransplant serum biomarkers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was variable, with only 48% of the participating centers reporting specific "cutoff" values. While a majority of centers (88%) reported having a routine imaging protocol for HCC recurrence surveillance, there was considerable heterogeneity in terms of frequency and duration of such surveillance. Of the centers that did risk stratify patients to identify those at higher risk of HCC recurrence, about 50% did not change their surveillance protocol.

Conclusions

Our study affirms significant variability in center practices, and our results reflect the need for high-quality studies to guide risk stratification and surveillance for HCC recurrence.

Features of extrahepatic metastasis after radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Extrahepatic metastasis (EHM) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with poor outcomes. However, the clinical features and risk factors of EHM of HCC after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) remain unclear.

AIM

To elucidate the characteristics and risk factors of EHM after RFA for HCC.

METHODS

From January 2008 to December 2017, we retrospectively enrolled 661 patients who underwent RFA as first-line treatment for HCC at 2 tertiary hospitals. The inclusion criteria were age ≥ 18 years, a diagnosis of HCC, and treatment-naivety. Abdominal computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and alpha-fetoprotein measurements were routinely performed at 1 mo after RFA and followed-up at intervals of 3-6 mo. Univariate analyses were performed using the chi-squared test or Student’s t-test, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed via logistic regression, as appropriate.

RESULTS

EHM was diagnosed in 44 patients (6.7%) during a median follow-up period of 1204 days. The 10-year cumulative rate of HCC recurrence and EHM was 92.7% and 33.7%, respectively. Initial recurrence was most often intrahepatic, and the rate of extrahepatic recurrence at initial recurrence was only 1.2%. The median time to the diagnosis of EHM was 2.68 years, and 68.2% of patients developed EHM within 2 years of the first recurrence, regardless of recurrence-free survival and 75.0% of patients developed EHM within 5 years after first recurrence. EHM was mostly diagnosed via abdominal CT/MRI in 33 (75.0%) and 38 of 44 patients (86.4%) with EHM had either positive abdominal CT scan results or serum AFP level elevation. In multivariate analysis, recurrence-free survival < 2 years, ablation zone/tumor size < 2, and alpha-fetoprotein level > 400 IU/mL were associated with a high EHM risk.

CONCLUSION

EHM occurs following multiple intrahepatic recurrences after RFA and combined contrast-enhanced abdominal CT and serum AFP were useful for surveillance. Patients especially with high-risk factors require close follow-up for EHM.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Management after the transplant

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly common indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States and in many parts of the world. In the last decade, significant work has been done to better understand how to risk stratify LT candidates for recurrence of HCC following transplant using a combination of biomarker and imaging findings. However, despite the high frequency of HCC in the LT population, guidance regarding posttransplant management is lacking. In particular, there is no current evidence to support specific post-LT surveillance strategies, leading to significant heterogeneity in practices. In addition, there are no current recommendations regarding recurrence prevention, including immunosuppression regimen or secondary prevention with adjuvant chemotherapy. Finally, guidance on treatment of disease recurrence is also lacking and there is significant controversy about the use of immunotherapy in transplant recipients due to the risk of rejection. Thus, outcomes for patients with recurrence are poor. This paper therefore provides a comprehensive review of the current literature on post-LT management of patients with HCC and identifies gaps in our current knowledge that are in urgent need of further investigation.

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

Hepatocellular carcinomas(HCC) consisted of heterogeneous subtypes with different recurrence probabilities after liver transplantation(LT). Our study aimed to develop an improved model for predicting the recurrence of solitary HCC after LT. In this retrospective study, 151 solitary HCC patients who received orthotopic LT over a period of 10 consecutive years were included. All recipients received graft from deceased donors. The first eligible 50 patients were used as validation cohort and others were utilized to construct the model. A two-tailed P < 0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance for all analysis. Based on the maximisation of the Youden’s index, the optimal cutoff values for alpha-fetoprotein(AFP) and tumor diameter were 261.6 ng/mL and 3.6 cm, respectively. Vascular involvement includes gross and microscopic vascular invasion. Variables potentially affecting recurrence-free survival(RFS) were examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that AFP, tumor diameter, vascular invasion and cytokeratin-19/glypican-3 sub-typing were independent prognostic factors for RFS, thus comprised the risk scoring model. The AUC values of the model in the cohorts were significantly higher than that of the Milan, UCSF, Fudan and Hangzhou criteria. These findings suggest the model has high performance in predicting early recurrence of solitary HCC patients after LT.

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Cirrhosis Who Had Received Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND Early recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) is still a clinical problem. This multicenter study evaluated the Milan, Hangzhou, and AFP model-based criteria for prediction of early recurrence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who had undergone LT. MATERIAL AND METHODS From the China Liver Transplant Registry (CLTR) database, we analyzed data of 589 HCC patients who had undergone LT between Jan 2015 and Jan 2019. Imaging data and AFP levels were evaluated immediately before LT. Recurrence and overall survival rates at 2 years were tested using the Kaplan-Meier estimate. The Milan criteria, Hangzhou criteria, and AFP model-based criteria were evaluated. RESULTS We found that 62.0%, 91.2%, and 67.6% of patients were within the Milan criteria, Hangzhou criteria, and AFP model-based criteria, respectively. The 2-year recurrence rate was 8.9%, 15.8%, and 11.8% with corresponding overall survival of 85.3%, 82.7%, and 86.5%, respectively. The 2-year recurrence rate was different in patients fulfilling and exceeding the AFP model-based criteria among patients who met either the Milan criteria (7.9% vs. 18.8%, HR=3.83, p=0.006) or Hangzhou criteria (12.0% vs. 27.6%, HR=2.95, p<0.001). However, the 2-year recurrence rate was not significantly different among patients who were beyond either the Milan or Hangzhou criteria. CONCLUSIONS For the prediction of early recurrence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis after liver transplantation, Milan criteria, Hangzhou criteria, and AFP model-based criteria are effective predictive tools for stratification of patients into low- and high-risk groups of recurrence with different prognoses. The AFP model-based criteria can identify a subgroup of patients with high risk of recurrence among patients who met either Milan or Hangzhou criteria.

Myeloid-derived suppressor cells in the patients with liver resection for hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver resection remains the popular treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to explore the alteration of immune cells in HCC patients with liver resections. Nineteen patients were included and their peripheral blood samples were taken before and after liver resections for immune-cell analysis. The clinical characteristics showed that the median diameter of the resected tumors was 7.5 cm with a range from 1.4 to 16.5 cm. The analysis of immune cells showed that the percentage of CD4⁺ T-cells were not altered by liver resection, but the percentage of CD8⁺ T-cell was decreased from 31.7 ± 12.4% to 20.2 ± 10.4% at one week after liver resection (p = 0.006). For immunosuppressor cells, regulatory T-cells were not altered, but myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) were decreased from 7.75 ± 8.16% to 1.51 ± 1.32% at one month after liver resection (p = 0.022) in 10 of 19 patients with high frequency of MDSC. Furthermore, it was also found that MDSC population was linearly correlated to tumor volume. In conclusion, CD8+ T-cells and MDSC were altered by liver resection. The percentage of CD8+ T-cells was decreased by surgery, but the accumulation of MDSC was abrogated.

Serum biomarkers and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only potentially curative treatment for selected patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not candidates for resection. When the Milan criteria are strictly applied, 75% to 85%of 3- to 4-year actuarial survival rates are achieved, but up to 20% of the patients experience HCC recurrence after transplantation. The Milan criteria are based on the preoperative tumor macromorphology, tumor size and number on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging that neither correlate well with posttransplant histological study of the liver explant nor accurately predict HCC recurrence after LT, since they do not include objective measures of tumor biology. Preoperative biological markers, including alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma-carboxiprothrombin or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, can predict the risk for HCC recurrence after transplantation. These biomarkers have been proposed as surrogate markers of tumor differentiation and vascular invasion, with varied risk magnitudes depending on the defined cutoffs. Different studies have shown that the combination of one or several biomarkers integrated into prognostic models predict the risk of HCC recurrence after LT more accurately than Milan criteria alone. In this review, we focus on the potential utility of these serum biological markers to improve the performance of Milan criteria to identify patients at high risk of tumoral recurrence after LT.

New prognostic biomarkers of mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

The outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) was classically established using various macromorphological factors and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels prior to LT. However, other biomarkers have recently been reported to be associated with the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing to LT. This review summarizes clinical data on these new biomarkers. High blood levels of malondialdehyde, total antioxidant capacity, caspase-cleaved cytokeratin-18, soluble CD40 ligand, substance P, C-reactive protein, and vascular endothelial growth factor, increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio in blood, high peripheral blood expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase messenger ribonucleic acid, and high HCC expression of dickkopf-1 have recently been associated with decreased survival rates. In addition, high blood levels of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, and high HCC expression of glypican-3, E-cadherin and beta-catenin have been associated with increased HCC recurrence. Additional research is necessary to establish the prognostic role of these biomarkers in HCC prior to LT. Furthermore, some of these biomarkers are also interesting because their potential modulation could help to create new research lines for improving the outcomes of those patients.

Validation of the prognostic power of the RETREAT score for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence using the UNOS database

Researchers in a recent multicenter study developed and validated a novel prognostic index, Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT), which incorporates α-fetoprotein (AFP) at liver transplantation (LT), microvascular invasion, and the sum of the largest viable tumor and number of tumors on explant. We now aim to evaluate RETREAT in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who meet Milan criteria by imaging and underwent LT between 2012 and -2014. On explantation (n = 3276), 13% had microvascular invasion, 30% had no viable tumor, and 15% exceeded Milan criteria. Post-LT survival at 3 years decreased with increasing RETREAT score: 91% for a score of 0, 80% for a score of 3, and 58% for a score ≥5 (P < .001). Post-LT HCC recurrence probability within 3 years increased from 1.6% with RETREAT score of 0% to 29% for a score ≥5 (P < .001). Increasing RETREAT score was also associated with a shorter time to HCC recurrence. RETREAT was superior to Milan criteria (explant) in predicting HCC recurrence by the net reclassification index (P < .001). This study validates the prognostic power of RETREAT, which may help standardize post-LT surveillance, provide a framework for tumor staging and risk stratification, and select candidates for adjuvant therapies.

Model combining pre-transplant tumor biomarkers and tumor size shows more utility in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence and survival than the BALAD models

AIM

To assess the performance of BALAD, BALAD-2 and their component biomarkers in predicting outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver transplant.

METHODS

BALAD score and BALAD-2 class are derived from bilirubin, albumin, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP). Pre-transplant AFP, AFP-L3 and DCP were measured in 113 patients transplanted for HCC from 2000 to 2008. Hazard ratios (HR) for recurrence and death were calculated. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted. C-statistics were used to compare biomarker-based to predictive models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 38 patients recurred and 87 died. The HRs for recurrence in patients with elevated AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP defined by BALAD cut-off values were 2.42 (1.18-5.00), 1.86 (0.98-3.52), and 2.83 (1.42-5.61), respectively. For BALAD, the HRs for recurrence and death per unit increased score were 1.48 (1.15-1.91) and 1.59 (1.28-1.97). For BALAD-2, the HRs for recurrence and death per unit increased class were 1.45 (1.06-1.98) and 1.38 (1.09-1.76). For recurrence prediction, the combination of three biomarkers had the highest c-statistic of 0.66 vs. 0.64, 0.61, 0.53, and 0.53 for BALAD, BALAD-2, Milan, and UCSF, respectively. Similarly, for death prediction, the combination of three biomarkers had the highest c-statistic of 0.66 vs 0.65, 0.61, 0.52, and 0.50 for BALAD, BALAD-2, Milan, and UCSF. A new model combining biomarkers with tumor size at the time of transplant (S-LAD) demonstrated the highest predictive capability with c-statistics of 0.71 and 0.69 for recurrence and death.

CONCLUSION

BALAD and BALAD-2 are valid in transplant HCC patients, but less predictive than the three biomarkers in combination or the three biomarkers in combination with maximal tumor diameter (S-LAD).

Current state and clinical outcome in Turkish patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

To investigate clinical, etiological, and prognostic features in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who were followed-up from 2001 to 2011 were included in the study. The diagnosis was established by histopathological and/or radiological criteria. We retrospectively reviewed clinical and laboratory data, etiology of primary liver disease, imaging characteristics and treatments. Child-Pugh and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage was determined at initial diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was done to find out treatment effect on survival. Risk factors for vascular invasion and overall survival were investigated by multivariate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Five hundred and forty-five patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were included in the study. Viral hepatitis was prevalent and 68 patients either had normal liver or were non-cirrhotic. Overall median survival was 16 (13-19) mo. Presence of extrahepatic metastasis was associated with larger tumor size (OR = 3.19, 95%CI: 1.14-10.6). Independent predictor variables of vascular invasion were AFP (OR = 2.95, 95%CI: 1.38-6.31), total tumor diameter (OR = 3.14, 95%CI: 1.01-9.77), and hepatitis B infection (OR = 5.37, 95%CI: 1.23-23.39). Liver functional reserve, tumor size/extension, AFP level and primary treatment modality were independent predictors of overall survival. Transarterial chemoembolization (HR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.28-0.51) and radioembolization (HR = 0.36, 95%CI: 0.18-0.74) provided a comparable survival benefit in the real life setting. Surgical treatments as resection and transplantation were found to be associated with the best survival compared with loco-regional treatments (log-rank, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Baseline liver function, oncologic features including AFP level and primary treatment modality determines overall survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Role of inflammatory markers as hepatocellular cancer selection tool in the setting of liver transplantation

Since the advent of the Milan criteria in 1996 and its widespread adoption for selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who would benefit from transplant, there has been an extensive hunt for the ideal clinical biomarker to predict HCC recurrence. This is because Milan lack does not include tumor biology indices and recurrence rates remain in the 15-20% range worldwide. While a 'silver-bullet' biomarker has not been found, several useful inflammatory markers have been identified and used in scoring systems that supersede Milan in their ability to predict HCC recurrence post liver transplantation (LT). In this review, we aim to summarize the role of inflammatory markers paly in the selection of HCC patients awaiting LT.

Association between Recipient IL-15 Genetic Variant and the Prognosis of HBV-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Liver Transplantation

Objective

To investigate the association of donor and recipient IL-15 genetic variants with HCC recurrence and prognosis after LT.

Methods

A total of 112 liver transplant patients with HBV-related HCC were enrolled. IL-15 rs10519613 and rs13122930 were genotyped in donors and recipients.

Results

Recipient IL-15 rs10519613 polymorphism was found to be significantly related to HCC recurrence after LT. In multivariate analysis, tumor thrombus, UCSF criteria, and recipient IL-15 rs10519613 genotypes were independent predictive factors of HCC recurrence after LT. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with recipient IL-15 rs10519613 CA/AA genotypes had a decreased disease-free survival and overall survival than those with the CC genotype. Recipient IL-15 rs10519613 genetic variant could improve survival prediction when combined with the UCSF criteria. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that tumor size (p = 0.012, p = 0.623), tumor thrombus (p = 0.011, p = 0.015), UCSF criteria (p = 0.471, p = 0.013), and recipient IL-15 rs10519613 genotype (p = 0.039, p = 0.008) were independent factors of predicting DFS and OS.

Conclusions

Recipient IL-15 rs10519613 polymorphism was associated with HCC recurrence after LT and might be a potential genetic marker for the clinical outcome of HCC patients treated with LT.

Wait Time of Less Than 6 and Greater Than 18 Months Predicts Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation: Proposing a Wait Time "Sweet Spot"

BACKGROUND

It has been postulated that short wait time before liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) results in the inclusion of tumors with aggressive biology, but prolonged wait time could result in a shift to more aggressive tumor behavior. We therefore test the hypothesis that a wait time "sweet spot" exists with a lower risk for HCC recurrence compared with the other 2 extremes.

METHODS

This multicenter study included 911 patients from 3 LT centers with short, medium, and long wait times (median of 4, 7, and 13 months, respectively) who received Model for End Stage Liver Disease exception listing for HCC from 2002 to 2012.

RESULTS

Wait time, defined as time from initial HCC diagnosis to LT, was less than 6 months in 32.4%, 6 to 18 months in 53.7%, and greater than 18 months in 13.9%. Waitlist dropout was observed in 18.4% at a median of 11.3 months. Probability of HCC recurrence at 1 and 5 years were 6.4% and 15.5% with wait time of less than 6 or greater than 18 months (n = 343) versus 4.5% and 9.8% with wait time of 6 to 18 months (n = 397), respectively (P = 0.049). When only pre-LT factors were considered, wait time of less than 6 or greater than 18 months (HR, 1.6; P = 0.043) and AFP greater than 400 at HCC diagnosis (HR, 3.0; P < 0.001) predicted HCC recurrence in multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This large multicenter study provides evidence of an association between very short (<6 months) or very long (>18 months) wait times and an increased risk for HCC recurrence post-LT. The so-called sweet spot of 6 to 18 months should be the target to minimize HCC recurrence.

Validation of a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplant

Importance

Several factors are associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT), but no reliable risk score has been established to determine the individual risk for HCC recurrence.

Objective

We aimed to develop and validate a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score for patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria by imaging.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Predictors of recurrence were tested in a development cohort of 721 patients who underwent LT between 2002 and 2012 at 3 academic transplant centers (University of California-San Francisco; Mayo Clinic, Rochester; and Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville) to create the RETREAT score. This was subsequently validated in a cohort of 341 patients also meeting Milan criteria by imaging who underwent LT at the University of Toronto transplant center using the C concordance statistic and net reclassification index.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Characteristics associated with post-LT HCC recurrence.

Results

A total of 1061 patients participated in the study; 77.8% (825) were men, and the median (IQR) age was 58.2 (53.3-63.9) years in the development cohort and 56.4 (51.7-61.0) years in the validation cohort (P < .001). In the development cohort of 721 patients (542 men), median α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LT was 8.3 ng/mL; 9.4% had microvascular invasion (n = 68), and 22.1% were beyond Milan criteria on explant (n = 159) owing to understaging by pretransplantation imaging. Cumulative probabilities of HCC recurrence at 1 and 5 years were 5.7% and 12.8%, respectively. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, 3 variables were independently associated with HCC recurrence: microvascular invasion, AFP at time of LT, and the sum of the largest viable tumor diameter and number of viable tumors on explant. The RETREAT score was created using these 3 variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 5 or higher that were highly predictive of HCC recurrence (C statistic, 0.77). RETREAT was able to stratify 5-year post-LT recurrence risk ranging from less than 3% with a score of 0 to greater than 75% with a score of 5 or higher. The validation cohort (n = 340; 283 men) had significantly higher microvascular invasion (23.8% [n = 81], P < .001), explant beyond Milan criteria (37.3% [n = 159], P < .001), and HCC recurrence at 5 years (17.9% [n = 159], P = .03). RETREAT showed good model discrimination (C statistic, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and superior recurrence risk classification compared with explant Milan criteria (net reclassification index, 0.40; P = .001) in the validation cohort.

Conclusions and Relevance

We have developed and validated a simple and novel prognostic score that may improve post-LT HCC surveillance strategies and help identify patients who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies.

The mitochondrial hinge protein, UQCRH, is a novel prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma

Alterations in mitochondrial respiration contribute to the development and progression of cancer via abnormal biogenesis, including generation of reactive oxygen species. Ubiquinol–cytochrome c reductase hinge protein (UQCRH) consists of the cytochrome bc1 complex serving respiration in mitochondria. In the present study, we analyzed UQCRH abnormalities in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its association with clinical outcomes of patients. UQCRH expression in HCC was determined via semiquantitative and quantitative real‐time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction of 96 surgically resected HCC tissues positive for hepatitis B virus surface antigen. UQCRH was frequently overexpressed in HCC tissues (46.8%, based on 2.1‐fold cutoff). UQCRH overexpression was observed in HCCs with larger tumor size, poorer differentiation, or vascular invasion. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed significantly shorter overall (P = 0.005) and recurrence‐free survival (P = 0.027) in patients with tumors overexpressing UQCRH. The prognostic impact of UQCRH was significant in subgroups of patients divided according to the α‐fetoprotein (AFP) level. The patient subgroup with higher AFP levels (≥20 ng/mL) exhibited significant differences in 5‐year overall (18.5% vs. 67.9%) and recurrence‐free survival rates (11.1% vs. 46.4%) between groups with and without UQCRH overexpression. In contrast, no marked survival differences were observed between subgroups with lower AFP levels (<20 ng/mL). Multivariate analysis defined UQCRH as an independent poor prognostic factor. Conclusively, our results indicate that UQCRH overexpression is correlated with poor outcomes of HCC patients. Furthermore, in patients grouped as high risk based on elevated AFP, lack of UQCRH overexpression could be a useful indicator for clinical treatment.

Simple Risk Score for Prediction of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma within the Milan Criteria after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

Ten to twenty percent of the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients fulfilling the Milan criteria (MC) recurred within three years after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We therefore utilize a training cohort to develop an improved prognostic model for predicting the recurrence in these patients. By univariate and multivariate analysis, AFP level [cut-off value: 321 ng/mL, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.724, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.604-0.843, P < 0.001] and cytokeratin-19 (CK19) and glypican-3 (GPC3) expression pattern from nine putative prognostic factors were entered in risk factor scoring model to conjecture the tumor recurrence. In the training cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.767 (95% CI = 0.645-0.890, P < 0.001), which was the highest among all the elements. The model's performance was then assessed using a validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.843 (95% CI = 0.720-0.966, P < 0.001) which was higher than any other elements. The results indicated that model had high performance with good discrimination ability and significantly improved the predictive capacity for the recurrence of HCC patients within MC after OLT.

Living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma achieves better outcomes

Liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital mainly relies on live donor LT (LDLT). Owing to taking the risk of LD, we are obligated to adopt strict selection criteria for HCC patients and optimize the pre-transplant conditions to ensure a high disease-free survival similar to those without HCC, even better than deceased donor LT (DDLT). Better outcomes are attributed to excellent surgical results and optimal patient selection. The hospital mortality of primary and salvage LDLT are lower than 2% in our center. Although Taiwan Health Insurance Policy extended the Milan to University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) criteria in 2006, selection criteria will not be consolidated to take into account only by the morphologic size/number of tumors but also by their biology. The criteria are divided into modifiable image morphology, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and positron emission tomography (PET) scan with standard uptake value (SUV) and unmodifiable unfavorable pathology such as HCC combined with cholangiocarcinoma (CC), sarcomatoid type, and poor differentiation. Downstaging therapy is necessary for HCC patients beyond criteria to fit all modifiable standards. The upper limit of downstaging treatment seems to be extended by more effective drug eluting transarterial chemoembolization in cases without absolute contraindications. In contrast, the pitfall of unmodifiable tumor pathology should be excluded by the findings of pretransplant core biopsy/resection if possible. More recently, achieving complete tumor necrosis in explanted liver could almost predict no recurrence after transplant. Necrotizing therapy is advised if possible before transplant even the tumor status within criteria to minimize the possibility of tumor recurrence. LDLT with low surgical mortality in experienced centers provides the opportunities of optimizing the pre-transplant tumor conditions and timing of transplant to achieve better outcomes.

Contribution of alpha-fetoprotein in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the main tumor biomarker available for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although it is neither a good screening test nor an accurate diagnostic tool for HCC, it seems to be a possible prognostic marker. However, its contribution in liver transplantation for HCC has not been fully determined, although its use to predict recurrence after liver transplantation has been underlined by international societies. In an era of organ shortages, it could also have a key role in the selection of patients eligible for liver transplantation. Yet unanswered questions remain. First, the cut-off value of serum AFP above which liver transplantation should not be performed is still a subject of debate. We show that a concentration of 1000 ng/mL could be an exclusion criterion, whereas values of < 15 ng/mL indicate patients with an excellent prognosis whatever the size and number of tumors. Monitoring the dynamics of AFP could also prove useful. However, evidence is lacking regarding the values that should be used. Today, the real input of AFP seems to be its integration into new criteria to select patients eligible for a liver transplantation. These recent tools have associated AFP values with morphological criteria, thus refining pre-existing criteria, such as Milan, University of California, San Francisco, or “up-to-seven”. We provide a review of the different criteria submitted within the past years. Finally, AFP can be used to monitor recurrence after transplantation, although there is little evidence to support this claim. Future challenges will be to draft new international guidelines to implement the use of AFP as a selection tool, and to determine a clear cut-off value above which liver transplantation should not be performed.

Increased hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in women compared to men with high alpha fetoprotein at liver transplant

 Introduction. Men have higher risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than women. Pre liver transplant (LT) alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels strongly predict post LT HCC recurrence. Though women with HCC have higher AFP, the contribution of AFP level by gender to post LT HCC recurrence is unknown.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this UNOSbased, retrospective cohort study we investigate sex differences in HCC recurrence among LT recipients with MELD exception between 2006-2010. Covariates include race, disease etiology, co-morbidities, AFP at listing and LT, tumor burden, loco-regional therapy, and donor risk index. HCC recurrence was assessed by competing risks regression.

RESULTS

Of the eligible cohort (n = 5,002) included 3,872 men and 1,130 women. HCC recurred in 258 men (7%) and 66 women (6%). Median listing AFP was higher in women than men (14 vs. 11 ng/dL, p < 0.001). While no sex difference in overall HCC recurrence was detected (HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.7-1.2, p = 0.38), there was a strong interaction between gender and AFP on recurrence risk (p = 0.02). HCC recurrence was nearly three times higher in women (HR 4.2, 95% CI 2.2-8.2, p < 0.001) than men (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.02) with AFP at LT between 101-500 ng/dL.

CONCLUSION

This study reveals novel sex differences in post LT HCC recurrence, which was nearly three times higher in women than men with high AFP at LT. Pre-LT AFP levels appear to carry a different prognosis in women than men, and a subset of female LT recipients may benefit from more intensive HCC surveillance after LT.

Current Treatment Approaches to HCC with a Special Consideration to Transplantation

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. The mainstay of treatment of HCC has been both resectional and transplantation surgery. It is well known that, in selected, optimized patients, hepatectomy for HCC may be an option, even in patients with underlying cirrhosis. Resectable patients with early HCC and underlying liver disease are however increasingly being considered for transplantation because of potential for better disease-free survival and resolution of underlying liver disease, although this approach is limited by the availability of donor livers, especially in resectable patients. Outcomes following liver transplantation improved dramatically for patients with HCC following the implementation of the Milan criteria in the late 1990s. Ever since, the rather restrictive nature of the Milan criteria has been challenged with good outcomes. There has also been an increase in the donor pool with marginal donors including organs retrieved following cardiac death being used. Even so, patients still continue to die while waiting for a liver transplant. In order to reduce this attrition, bridging techniques and methods for downstaging disease have evolved. Additionally new techniques for organ preservation have increased the prospect of this potentially curative procedure being available for a greater number of patients.

Higher Ratio of Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein Could Predict Outcomes in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Normal Alanine Aminotransferase

Background

The role of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels in the surveillance and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the value of serially measured serum AFP levels in HCC progression or recurrence after initial treatment.

Methods

A total of 722 consecutive patients newly diagnosed with HCC and treated at the National Cancer Center, Korea, between January 2004 and December 2009 were enrolled. The AFP ratios between 4–8 weeks post-treatment and those at the time of HCC progression or recurrence were obtained. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to correlate the post-treatment AFP ratios with the presence of HCC progression or recurrence.

Results

The etiology of HCC was related to chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in 562 patients (77.8%), chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 74 (10.2%), and non-viral cause in 86 (11.9%). There was a significant decrease in serum AFP levels from the baseline to 4 to 8 weeks after treatment (median AFP, 319.6 ng/mL vs. 49.6 ng/mL; p< 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that an AFP ratio > 1.0 was an independently associated with HCC progression or recurrence. Among the different causes of HCC analyzed, this association was significant only for HCC related to chronic hepatitis B (p< 0.001) and non-viral causes (p<0.05), and limited only to patients who had normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels.

Conclusion

Serial measurements of serum AFP ratios could be helpful in detecting progression or recurrence in treated patients with HBV-HCC and normal ALT.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria: A review

Liver transplantation (LT) has been accepted as an effective therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The Milan criteria (MC) are widely used across the world to select LT candidates in HCC patients. However, the MC may be too strict because a substantial subset of patients who have HCC exceed the MC and who would benefit from LT may be unnecessarily excluded from the waiting list. In recent years, many extended criteria beyond the MC were raised, which were proved to be able to yield similar outcomes compared with those patients meeting the MC. Because the simple use of tumor size and number was insufficient to indicate HCC biological features and to predict the risk of tumor recurrence, some biological markers such as Alpha-fetoprotein, Des-Gamma-carboxy prothrombin and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were useful in selecting LT candidates in HCC patients beyond the MC. For patients with advanced HCC, downstaging therapy is an effective way to reduce the tumor stage to fulfill the MC by using liver-directed therapy such as transarterial chemoembolization, radiofrequency ablation and percutaneous ethanol injection. This article reviews the recent advances in LT for HCC beyond the MC.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma biological behavior in patient selection for liver transplantation

Morphological criteria have always been considered the benchmark for selecting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for liver transplantation (LT). These criteria, which are often inappropriate to express the tumor’s biological behavior and aggressiveness, offer only a static view of the disease burden and are frequently unable to correctly stratify the tumor recurrence risk after LT. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and its progression as well as AFP-mRNA, AFP-L3%, des-γ-carboxyprothrombin, inflammatory markers and other serological tests appear to be correlated with post-transplant outcomes. Several other markers for patient selection including functional imaging studies such as ¹⁸F-FDG-PET imaging, histological evaluation of tumor grade, tissue-specific biomarkers, and molecular signatures have been outlined in the literature. HCC growth rate and response to pre-transplant therapies can further contribute to the transplant evaluation process of HCC patients. While AFP, its progression, and HCC response to pre-transplant therapy have already been used as a part of an integrated prognostic model for selecting patients, the utility of other markers in the transplant setting is still under investigation. This article intends to review the data in the literature concerning predictors that could be included in an integrated LT selection model and to evaluate the importance of biological aggressiveness in the evaluation process of these patients.

Alpha-fetoprotein Level Predicts Recurrence After Transplantation in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of liver transplantation. In an attempt to predict their recurrence after liver transplantation, evaluation of tumor number and size, degree of histologic differentiation, and the presence of vascular invasion already have their importance established. In this context, the role of biologic markers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is still not clear. This retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed the AFP relationship with recurrence of HCC after orthotopic liver transplantation.The current study retrospectively analyzed data from 206 patients with a histopathologic confirmed HCC between 1997 and 2010.The overall survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 14 years were 78.6%, 65.4%, 60.5%, and 38.7%, respectively. The frequency of recurrence was 15.5%, and recurrence was significantly associated with a lower survival rate (P < 0.001). No association was observed between survival and AFP level (P = 0.153). A correlation, however, was found between tumor recurrence and AFP level (P = 0.002). Univariate analysis of risk factors for recurrence revealed that an AFP level greater than 200 ng/mL, the number of tumors, the degree of cellular differentiation, and the presence of vascular invasion or satellite nodules were associated with relapse. By multivariate analysis, only an AFP level greater than 200 ng/mL remained as a risk factor.Although an elevated AFP level did not correlate with survival in HCC patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation, a high AFP level was associated with a 3.32-folds increase in the probability of HCC recurrence.

Evaluation of antiangiogenic efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Biomarkers and functional imaging

Many years after therapeutic wilderness, sorafenib finally showed a clinical benefit in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. After the primary general enthusiasm worldwide, some disappointments emerged particularly since no new treatment could exceed or at least match sorafenib in this setting. Without these new drugs, research focused on optimizing care of patients treated with sorafenib. One challenging research approach deals with identifying prognostic and predictive biomarkers of sorafenib in this population. The task still seems difficult; however appropriate investigations could resolve this dilemma, as observed for some malignancies where other drugs were used.

Assessment of the correlation between serum prolidase and alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM: To determine the predictive value of increased prolidase activity that reflects increased collagen turnover in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS: Sixty-eight patients with HCC (mean age of 69.1 ± 10.1), 31 cirrhosis patients (mean age of 59.3 ± 6.3) and 33 healthy volunteers (mean age of 51.4 ± 12.6) were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to evaluate the association of serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) values with HCC clinicopathological features, such as tumor size, number and presence of vascular and macrovascular invasion. The patients with HCC were divided into groups according to tumor size, number and presence of vascular invasion (diameters; ≤ 3 cm, 3-5 cm and ≥ 5 cm, number; 1, 2 and ≥ 3, macrovascular invasion; yes/no). Barcelona-clinic liver cancer (BCLC) criteria were used to stage HCC patients. Serum samples for measurement of prolidase and alpha-fetoprotein levels were kept at -80 °C until use. Prolidase levels were measured spectrophotometrically and AFP concentrations were determined by a chemiluminescence immunometric commercial diagnostic assay.

RESULTS: In patients with HCC, prolidase and AFP values were evaluated according to tumor size, number, presence of macrovascular invasion and BCLC staging classification. Prolidase values were significantly higher in patients with HCC compared with controls (P < 0.001). Prolidase levels were significantly associated with tumor size and number (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, respectively). Prolidase levels also differed in patients in terms of BCLC staging classification (P < 0.001). Furthermore the prolidase levels in HCC patients showed a significant difference compared with patients with cirrhosis (P < 0.001). In HCC patients grouped according to tumor size, number and BCLC staging classification, AFP values differed separately (P = 0.032, P = 0.038, P = 0.015, respectively). In patients with HCC, there was a significant correlation (r = 0.616; P < 0.001) between prolidase and AFP values in terms of tumor size, number and BCLC staging classification, whereas the presence of macrovascular invasion did not show a positive association with serum prolidase and AFP levels.

CONCLUSION: Considering the levels of both serum prolidase and AFP could contribute to the early diagnosing of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis of factors predicting outcome in 1074 patients in OPTN Region 5

Previous studies on loco-regional therapy (LRT) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting outcome after liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have shown inconsistent results. We analyzed the OPTN database in Region 5 from January 2004 to January 2009 and performed univariate and multivariate analysis of 11 pre-transplant recipient and donor variables in 1074 patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria to detect association with post-LT tumor recurrence or mortality. Mean waitlist time was 438 d. The 1- and 5-yr post-LT survival was 91.1% and 71.1%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, AFP before LT was the only predictor of HCC recurrence. The association between AFP and HCC recurrence was observed only in the subgroup receiving LRT but not in the subgroup without LRT. Predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis were HCC recurrence, Donor Risk Index, last AFP before LT, and MELD score. AFP before LT was the strongest predictor of post-transplant HCC recurrence or death in multivariate analysis. In conclusion, in Region 5 with prolonged waitlist time, high AFP was the only pre-transplant variable predicting post-transplant tumor recurrence and mortality for HCC meeting Milan criteria. Our results also supported the importance of the effects of LRT on AFP in predicting prognosis.

Using serum α-fetoprotein for prognostic prediction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: what is the most optimal cutoff?

Background and Aims

The prognostic ability of α-fetoprotein (AFP) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was examined by using different cutoff values. The optimal AFP cutoff level is still unclear.

Methods

A total of 2579 HCC patients were consecutively enrolled in Taiwan, where hepatitis B is the major etiology of chronic liver disease. Four frequently used AFP cutoff levels, 20, 200, 400, 1000 ng/mL, were investigated. One-to-one matched pairs between patients having AFP higher and lower than the cutoffs were selected by using the propensity model. The adjusted hazard ratios of survival difference were calculated with Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Patients with a higher AFP level were associated with more severe cirrhosis, more frequent vascular invasion, higher tumor burden and poorer performance status (all p<0.0001). In the propensity model, 4 groups of paired patients were selected, and there was no difference found in the comparison of baseline characteristics (all p>0.05). Patients with AFP <20 ng/mL had significantly better long-term survival than patients with AFP ≧20 ng/mL (p<0.0001), and patients with AFP <400 ng/mL had significantly better overall outcome than patients with AFP ≧400 ng/mL (p = 0.0186). There was no difference of long-term survival between patients divided by AFP levels of 200 and 1000 ng/mL. The adjusted hazard ratios of AFP ≧20 ng/mL and AFP ≧400 ng/mL were 1.545 and 1.471 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–1.838 and 1.178–1.837), respectively.

Conclusions

This study shows the independently predictive ability of baseline serum AFP level in HCC patients. AFP levels of 20 and 400 ng/mL are considered feasible cutoffs to predict long-term outcome in unselected HCC patients.

Elevated CA19-9 Is Associated With Increased Mortality In A Prospective Cohort Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Objectives:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. CA19-9 is a glycoprotein that predicts poor prognosis in pancreatic and biliary malignancies. We evaluated it as a prognostic biomarker for patients with HCC.

Methods:

We prospectively enrolled 145 patients with HCC, diagnosed using American Association for Study of Liver Diseases criteria, between October 2008 and November 2012. We examined whether baseline serum CA19-9 levels predicted overall survival. We also examined immunostains of hepatic resections and explants of patients with elevated and normal serum CA19-9.

Results:

In a cohort of predominantly hepatitis C and B patients, CA19-9 ≥100 U/ml was associated with a 2.7-fold increased mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 2.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52–4.88, P<0.001). It remained a significant predictor (HR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.41–4.72, P=0.002) in a multivariable model adjusted for Child–Pugh score, alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. CA19-9 immunohistochemistry performed on a subset of liver resection and explant specimens showed increased CA19-9 immunostaining of non-tumor liver parenchyma in patients with elevated serum CA19-9. It also showed staining of native and reactive bile ducts, and of progenitor-like cells at the periphery of cirrhotic nodules.

Conclusions:

Elevated serum CA19-9 ≥100 U/ml is an independent predictor of poor overall survival in this hypothesis-generating study. The unfavorable prognosis seen with elevated serum levels may be related to progenitor-like cells in the non-tumor liver.

Evaluating the validity of model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with multiple nodules <2 cm

Liver transplant allocation policy does not give model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception points for patients with a single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) <2 cm in size, but does give points to patients with multiple small nodules. Because standard-of-care imaging for HCC struggles to differentiate HCC from other nodules, it is possible that a subset of patients receiving liver transplant for multiple nodules <2 cm in size does not have HCC. We evaluate risk of post-transplant HCC recurrence and wait-list dropout for patients with multiple small nodules using competing risks regression based on the Fine and Gray model. We identified 5002 adult HCC patients in the OPTN/UNOS dataset diagnosed and transplanted between January 2006 and September 2010. Compared to patients with >1 tumor <2 cm, risk of developing recurrence was significantly higher in patients with one or more tumors with only one tumor ≥2 cm (SHR 1.63, p = 0.009), as well as in patients with 2-3 tumors ≥2 cm (SHR 1.84, p = 0.02). Dropout risk was not significantly different among size categories. HCC recurrence risk was significantly lower in patients with multiple nodules <2 cm in size than in those with larger tumors, supporting the possibility that some patients received unnecessary transplants. The priority given to these patients must be re-examined.

The Indian National Association for Study of the Liver (INASL) Consensus on Prevention, Diagnosis and Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in India: The Puri Recommendations

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of morbidity, mortality and healthcare expenditure in patients with chronic liver disease. There are no consensus guidelines on diagnosis and management of HCC in India. The Indian National Association for Study of the Liver (INASL) set up a Task-Force on HCC in 2011, with a mandate to develop consensus guidelines for diagnosis and management of HCC, relevant to disease patterns and clinical practices in India. The Task-Force first identified various contentious issues on various aspects of HCC and these issues were allotted to individual members of the Task-Force who reviewed them in detail. The Task-Force used the Oxford Center for Evidence Based Medicine-Levels of Evidence of 2009 for developing an evidence-based approach. A 2-day round table discussion was held on 9th and 10th February, 2013 at Puri, Odisha, to discuss, debate, and finalize the consensus statements. The members of the Task-Force reviewed and discussed the existing literature at this meeting and formulated the INASL consensus statements for each of the issues. We present here the INASL consensus guidelines (The Puri Recommendations) on prevention, diagnosis and management of HCC in India.

α-fetoprotein-to-total tumor volume ratio predicts post-operative tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) and total tumor volume (TTV) are important factors linked with post-operative tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We investigated the role of a new prognostic marker, AFP-to-TTV ratio, in predicting HCC recurrence.

METHODS

A total of 655 HCC patients undergoing resection were analyzed.

RESULTS

In the multivariate logistic model, serum AFP level [odds ratio (OR) 32.459, p = 0.012] and TTV (OR 0.006, p = 0.01) were independently associated with a higher AFT/TTV ratio. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year tumor recurrence rates were 29 %, 55 %, and 68 %, respectively. In the Cox proportional hazards model, alcoholism (hazard ratio [HR], 1.354, p = 0.028), international normalized ratio of prothrombin time ≥1.01 (HR, 1.349, p < 0.001), multiple nodules (HR, 1.381, p = 0.004), main tumor diameter ≥4 cm (HR, 1.535, p = 0.001), macrovascular invasion (HR, 1.362, p = 0.016), and AFP/TTV ratio ≥1.5 (HR, 1.49, p < 0.001) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. In subgroup analysis, a higher AFP/TTV ratio was significantly associated with tumor recurrence in patients characterized by macrovascular invasion, TTV ≥ 40 cm(3), or main tumor diameter ≥4cm (all p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The AFP/TTV ratio, a newly proposed marker for predicting post-operative tumor recurrence in HCC, is a feasible surrogate and may be useful in selecting super-high-risk patients for tumor recurrence.