Rapid environmental degradation in a subarctic ecosystem influences resource use of a keystone avian herbivore

Reproductive success of a keystone herbivore is more variable and responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity

The effects of climate on wild populations are often channelled through species interactions. Population responses to climate variation can therefore differ across habitats, owing to variation in the biotic community. Theory predicts that consumer demography should be less variable and less responsive to climate in habitats with greater resource diversity. We tested these predictions using a long-term study of breeding lesser snow geese along the western coast of Hudson Bay, Manitoba, Canada. Reproductive success was measured in 22 years from 114 locations, in either coastal or inland habitat types. We used Bayesian analysis to estimate the response of reproductive success to climate in each habitat type, along with residual variation not explained by climate. We then quantified gosling diet composition in each habitat type to test the prediction that reproductive success would be less variable and more responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity. Reproductive success responded positively to seasonal warmness, but this response was much stronger in inland habitats than in coastal habitats. Site- and year-level random effects were also three to five times more variable in inland habitats. Simultaneously, land cover diversity and gosling diet diversity were lower in inland habitats. Our study illustrates that spatial variation in resource diversity (and thus, species interactions) can have important effects on consumer responses to climate. In this system, climate change is expected to disproportionately increase the reproductive success of snow geese in vast inland habitats, potentially counteracting management efforts to reduce the abundance of this keystone herbivore.

The Energetic Value of Land-Based Foods in Western Hudson Bay and Their Potential to Alleviate Energy Deficits of Starving Adult Male Polar Bears

Climate change is predicted to expand the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay and when it grows to 180 days, 28–48% of adult male polar bears are projected to starve unless nutritional deficits can be offset by foods consumed on land. We updated a dynamic energy budget model developed by Molnar et al. to allow influx of additional energy from novel terrestrial foods (lesser snow geese, eggs, caribou) that polar bears currently consume as part of a mixed diet while on land. We calculated the units of each prey, alone and in combination, needed to alleviate these lethal energy deficits under conditions of resting or limited movement (2 km d^-1) prior to starvation. We further considered the total energy available from each sex and age class of each animal prey over the period they would overlap land-bound polar bears and calculated the maximum number of starving adult males that could be sustained on each food during the ice-free season. Our results suggest that the net energy from land-based food, after subtracting costs of limited movement to obtain it, could eliminate all projected nutritional deficits of starving adult male polar bears and likely other demographic groups as well. The hunting tactics employed, success rates as well as behavior and abundance of each prey will determine the realized energetic values for individual polar bears. Although climate change may cause a phenological mismatch between polar bears and their historical ice-based prey, it may simultaneously yield a new match with certain land-based foods. If polar bears can transition their foraging behavior to effectively exploit these resources, predictions for starvation-related mortality may be overestimated for western Hudson Bay. We also discuss potential complications with stable-carbon isotope studies to evaluate utilization of land-based foods by polar bears including metabolic effects of capture-related stress and consuming a mixed diet.

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.

Ecological implications of reduced forage quality on growth and survival of sympatric geese

Allometric constraints associated with digesting leaves require relatively small avian herbivores to consume high-quality forage. How such constraints are overcome during ontogeny when energy and nutrient requirements are relatively high has not been adequately explored. We compared growth trajectories of Canada and lesser snow goose goslings raised on grass-based diets that differed in protein (10%, 14% or 18%) and fibre (30% or 45%) with those of free-living goslings on Akimiski Island, Canada. This common-garden experiment allowed us to test the hypotheses that (i) smaller-bodied geese are more negatively affected by reduced forage quality than larger-bodied geese, and (ii) goslings from subarctic brood-rearing areas have a limited capacity to slow growth in response to reduced forage quality. Canada goose goslings fed low-protein (10%) diets were on average 44% lighter in body mass, had slower growth rates and were delayed >20 days in reaching 90% of asymptotic size compared with Canada goose goslings fed 18% protein. In contrast, snow goose goslings were unable to survive on the low-protein diets, and those fed high- or medium-protein diets grew at a similar rate and achieved similar asymptotic size. Canada and snow goose goslings fed low-protein diets had reduced growth rates of the tarsus and delayed emergence of the 9th primary. Free-ranging Canada goslings on Akimiski Island were similar in mass and structural size to captive-reared goslings fed low-protein diets. In contrast, snow goslings were similar in mass and structural size to the captive-reared goslings fed the high- and medium-protein diets. This suggests that degraded habitats with mostly low-protein forage may be able to support Canada goslings better than snow goslings which require higher-quality forage to survive. Size-related differences in gosling growth and survival in response to diminished diet quality may influence population size when available food reaches a lower threshold in protein content. However, goslings can avoid such density-dependent population regulation if they are able to move their broods and find adequate quality and quantity of forage.