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Peirce J, Sandland G, Bennie B, Erickson R. An integral projection model for gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) utilizing density-dependent age-0 survival. Ecol Modell 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
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2
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Messerman AF, Clause AG, Gray LN, Krkošek M, Rollins HB, Trenham PC, Shaffer HB, Searcy CA. Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2783. [PMID: 36478484 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision-making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size- and stage-structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long-term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%-50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600-1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate-dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam G Clause
- Urban Nature Research Center & Department of Herpetology, Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Levi N Gray
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
| | - Martin Krkošek
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Hilary B Rollins
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Peter C Trenham
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - H Bradley Shaffer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, La Kretz Center for California Conservation Science, and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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3
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Margalef-Marrase J, Molowny-Horas R, Jaime L, Lloret F. Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:159063. [PMID: 36202357 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Revised: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Roberto Molowny-Horas
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain
| | - Luciana Jaime
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra 08193, Spain; Unitat d'Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
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4
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Yang X, Angert AL, Zuidema PA, He F, Huang S, Li S, Li SL, Chardon NI, Zhang J. The role of demographic compensation in stabilising marginal tree populations in North America. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1676-1689. [PMID: 35598109 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Demographic compensation-the opposing responses of vital rates along environmental gradients-potentially delays anticipated species' range contraction under climate change, but no consensus exists on its actual contribution. We calculated population growth rate (λ) and demographic compensation across the distributional ranges of 81 North American tree species and examined their responses to simulated warming and tree competition. We found that 43% of species showed stable population size at both northern and southern edges. Demographic compensation was detected in 25 species, yet 15 of them still showed a potential retraction from southern edges, indicating that compensation alone cannot maintain range stability. Simulated climatic warming caused larger decreases in λ for most species and weakened the effectiveness of demographic compensation in stabilising ranges. These findings suggest that climate stress may surpass the limited capacity of demographic compensation and pose a threat to the viability of North American tree populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xianyu Yang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Research Center of Global Change and Complex Ecosystems, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security, Shanghai, P.R. China.,Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Amy L Angert
- Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Pieter A Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Fangliang He
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Shongming Huang
- Government of Alberta, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Economic Development, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Shouzhong Li
- Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology, Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province Funded, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, P. R. China
| | - Shou-Li Li
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, P. R. China
| | - Nathalie I Chardon
- Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Jian Zhang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Research Center of Global Change and Complex Ecosystems, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, P. R. China.,Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security, Shanghai, P.R. China
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5
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Prescriptions for the Control of a Clonal Invasive Species Using Demographic Models. PLANTS 2022; 11:plants11050689. [PMID: 35270159 PMCID: PMC8912375 DOI: 10.3390/plants11050689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Until recently, little research has focused on determination of the population dynamics of invasive species and evaluating their genetic variation. Consequently, not much is known of what drives clonal invasive species and their demography. Here, we describe the population dynamics of Kalanchoe delagoensis (Crassulaceae), considered invasive to several countries. We quantified the demography of a population in central Mexico using integral projection models (IPM) in a population that reproduced asexually exclusively through plantlets. The effect of clonal recruitment on population growth rate (λ) was evaluated by changing plantlet survival and simulating management scenarios that used previous data of watering and seven experimental herbicide treatments. The finite rate of population increase indicated that this Kalanchoe delagoensis population is growing (above one) and with water availability, growth rates will only accelerate. The IPM showed that plantlet survival and recruitment were the most critical steps in the cycle for the population, and simulations of different management scenarios showed that reducing plantlet survival significantly decreased λ only in two out of the seven herbicides used.
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Doak DF, Waddle E, Langendorf RE, Louthan AM, Isabelle Chardon N, Dibner RR, Keinath DA, Lombardi E, Steenbock C, Shriver RK, Linares C, Begoña Garcia M, Funk WC, Fitzpatrick SW, Morris WF, DeMarche ML. A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ryan E. Langendorf
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Allison M. Louthan
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas USA
- KS and Biology Department Duke University Durham North Carolina USA
| | | | - Reilly R. Dibner
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
| | - Douglas A. Keinath
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
- Wyoming Ecological Services Field Office United States Fish and Wildlife Service 5353 Yellowstone Road, Suite 308A Cheyenne Wyoming82009USA
| | - Elizabeth Lombardi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
| | - Christopher Steenbock
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Robert K. Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno Nevada USA
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) University of Barcelona Avenida Diagonal 643 Barcelona08028Spain
| | - Maria Begoña Garcia
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) Avenida Montañana 1005 Zaragoza50059Spain
| | - W. Chris Funk
- Department of Biology Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort CollinsColorado USA
| | - Sarah W. Fitzpatrick
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA
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7
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Torres-García I, León-Jacinto A, Vega E, Moreno-Calles AI, Casas A. Integral Projection Models and Sustainable Forest Management of Agave inaequidens in Western Mexico. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2020; 11:1224. [PMID: 32903574 PMCID: PMC7438764 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2020.01224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In México, at least 37 Agave species are extracted from wild populations for producing distilled spirits. This activity involves harvesting mature agaves just before producing their inflorescences, which cancels sexual reproduction of plants used. The increasing demand of agaves spirits in national and international markets is determining a strong pressure on wild populations, most of them lacking adequate management. In addition, the dynamics of agave populations may be affected by natural phenomena like oscillation of rainfall regimes, which affects the recruitment of agave seedlings, or the scarcity of pollinators that may affect seed production and general population dynamics. We studied the demography of wild populations of Agave inaequidens to analyze critical conditions for populations recovery, modelling the effects of rainfall trends on the demographic performance of this species, and exploring response of populations to hypothetical extraction regimes and reforestation efforts. Our study was performed in four well-conserved wild populations in Central Western Mexico, each population was sampled in a plot of about one hectare composed by 10 subplots 50 x 5 m (2500 m2). Populations were monitored yearly between 2011 and 2013, measuring plant size, reproductive individuals, and fecundity. Data were analyzed through integral projection models by using the IPMpack for R, to perform prospective analyses. We in addition constructed stochastic models to explore the possible influence of rainfall variation on species demography, using data for the drier and wetter years of the study period. Population growth varied from λ=1.003 to λ=0.899 among populations and years, and exceptionally λ=0.559 after a fire event. Low rainfall decreases λ values, indicating especial limitations to harvesting agaves during dry years whose frequency most probably will increase. In general, extraction rates from 10% to 30% of mature individuals are viable to maintain λ above 1, and these rates may be higher if new plants are introduced in populations. Depending on levels of extraction, our models suggest that it is necessary to carry out actions of reforestation, and in situ management according to the trends found in each site. This is one indispensable condition to maintain λ close to or greater than 1. Sustainable extraction of wild agaves is possible, some communities are already carrying out a repertoire of goods practices in this direction, but together with ecological criteria and good management techniques, strict regulations and social organization are needed to achieve it.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ignacio Torres-García
- Environmental Transdisciplinary Studies, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | | | - Ernesto Vega
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | - Ana Isabel Moreno-Calles
- Environmental Transdisciplinary Studies, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
| | - Alejandro Casas
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, México
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8
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Rose JP, Todd BD. Targeting eradication of introduced watersnakes using integral projection models. Anim Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Brian D. Todd
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology University of California Davis CA USA
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9
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Ramula S, Kerr NZ, Crone EE. Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb. POPUL ECOL 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.12024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Satu Ramula
- Department of Biology University of Turku Turku Finland
| | - Natalie Z. Kerr
- Department of Biology Tufts University Medford Massachusetts
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10
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Oldfather MF, Ackerly DD. Microclimate and demography interact to shape stable population dynamics across the range of an alpine plant. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2019; 222:193-205. [PMID: 30372539 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 10/20/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Heterogeneous terrain in montane systems results in a decoupling of climatic gradients. Population dynamics across species' ranges in these heterogeneous landscapes are shaped by relationships between demographic rates and these interwoven climate gradients. Linking demography and climate variables across species' ranges refines our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of species' current and future ranges. We explored the importance of multiple microclimatic gradients in shaping individual demographic rates and population growth rates in 16 populations across the elevational distribution of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis). Using integral projection modeling, we ask how each rate varies across three microclimate gradients: accumulated degree-days, growing-season soil moisture, and days of snow cover. Range-wide variation in demographic rates was best explained by the combined influence of multiple microclimatic variables. Different pairs of demographic rates exhibited both similar and inverse responses to the same microclimatic gradient, and the microclimatic effects often varied with plant size. These responses resulted in range-wide projected population persistence, with no declining populations at either elevational range edge or at the extremes of the microclimate gradients. The complex relationships between topography, microclimate and demography suggest that populations across a species' range may have unique demographic pathways to stable population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
- Jepson Herbarium, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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11
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Caughlin TT, Damschen EI, Haddad NM, Levey DJ, Warneke C, Brudvig LA. Landscape heterogeneity is key to forecasting outcomes of plant reintroduction. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01850. [PMID: 30821885 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 10/26/2018] [Accepted: 12/04/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Conservation and restoration projects often involve starting new populations by introducing individuals into portions of their native or projected range. Such efforts can help meet many related goals, including habitat creation, ecosystem service provisioning, assisted migration, and the reintroduction of imperiled species following local extirpation. The outcomes of reintroduction efforts, however, are highly variable, with results ranging from local extinction to dramatic population growth; reasons for this variation remain unclear. Here, we ask whether population growth following plant reintroductions is governed by variation at two scales: the scale of individual habitat patches to which individuals are reintroduced, and larger among-landscape scales in which similar patches may be situated in landscapes that differ in matrix type, soil conditions, and other factors. Quantifying demographic variation at these two scales will help prioritize locations for introduction and, once introductions take place, forecast population growth. This work took place within a large-scale habitat fragmentation experiment, where individuals of two perennial forb species were reintroduced into eight replicate ~50-ha landscapes, each containing a set of five ~1-ha patches that varied in their degree of isolation (connected by habitat corridors or unconnected) and edge-to-area ratio. Using data on individual growth, survival, reproductive output, and recruitment collected one to two years after reintroduction, we developed models to forecast population growth, then compared forecasts to observed population sizes, three and six years later. Both the type of patch (connected and unconnected) and identity of the landscape to which individuals were reintroduced had effects on forecasted population growth rates, but only variation associated with landscape identity was an accurate predictor of subsequently observed population growth rates. Models that did not include landscape identity had minimal forecasting ability, revealing the key importance of variation at this scale for accurate prediction. Of the five demographic rates used to model population dynamics, seed production was the most important source of forecast error in population growth rates. Our results point to the importance of accounting for landscape-scale variation in demographic models and demonstrate how such models might assist with prioritizing particular landscapes for species reintroduction projects.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Trevor Caughlin
- Department of Biological Sciences and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho 83725 USA
| | - Ellen I Damschen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 451 Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Nick M Haddad
- Kellogg Biological Station and Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, Michigan, 49060, USA
| | - Douglas J Levey
- Division of Environmental Biology, National Science Foundation, Alexandria, Virginia, 22314, USA
| | - Christopher Warneke
- Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824 USA
| | - Lars A Brudvig
- Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824 USA
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12
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Sulis E, Bacchetta G, Cogoni D, Fenu G. Short-term population dynamics of Helianthemum caput-felis, a perennial Mediterranean coastal plant: a key element for an effective conservation programme. SYST BIODIVERS 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/14772000.2018.1492469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Elena Sulis
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Gianluigi Bacchetta
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Donatella Cogoni
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
| | - Giuseppe Fenu
- Centro Conservazione Biodiversità (CCB), Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, I-09123 Cagliari, Italia
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13
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14
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Salguero‐Gómez R, Violle C, Gimenez O, Childs D, Fox C. Delivering the promises of trait-based approaches to the needs of demographic approaches, and vice versa. Funct Ecol 2018; 32:1424-1435. [PMID: 30034074 PMCID: PMC6049886 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2018] [Accepted: 05/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Few facets of biology vary more than functional traits and life-history traits. To explore this vast variation, functional ecologists and population ecologists have developed independent approaches that identify the mechanisms behind and consequences of trait variation.Collaborative research between researchers using trait-based and demographic approaches remains scarce. We argue that this is a missed opportunity, as the strengths of both approaches could help boost the research agendas of functional ecology and population ecology.This special feature, which spans three journals of the British Ecological Society due to its interdisciplinary nature, showcases state-of-the-art research applying trait-based and demographic approaches to examine relationships between organismal function, life history strategies and population performance across multiple kingdoms. Examples include the exploration of how functional trait × environment interactions affect vital rates and thus explain population trends and species occurrence; the coordination of seed traits and dispersal ability with the pace of life in plants; the incorporation of functional traits in dynamic energy budget models; or the discovery of linkages between microbial functional traits and the fast-slow continuum.Despite their historical isolation, collaborative work between functional ecologists and population ecologists could unlock novel research pathways. We call for an integrative research agenda to evaluate which and when traits are functional, as well as their ability to describe and predict life history strategies and population dynamics. We highlight promising, complementary research avenues to overcome current limitations. These include a more explicit linkage of selection gradients in the context of functional trait-vital rate relationships, and the implementation of standardised protocols to track changes in traits and vital rates over time at the same location and individuals, thus allowing for the explicit incorporation of trade-offs in analyses of covariation of functional traits and life-history traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero‐Gómez
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Evolutionary Biodemography LaboratoryMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchRostockGermany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQldAustralia
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CEFE, CNRSUniv MontpellierUniv Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRDMontpellierFrance
| | - Olivier Gimenez
- CEFE, CNRSUniv MontpellierUniv Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRDMontpellierFrance
| | - Dylan Childs
- Department of Animal & Plant SciencesThe University of SheffieldSheffieldUK
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15
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Bertwell TD, Kainer KA, Cropper WP, Staudhammer CL, Oliveira Wadt LH. Are Brazil nut populations threatened by fruit harvest? Biotropica 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Todd D. Bertwell
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611‐0410 USA
| | - Karen A. Kainer
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611‐0410 USA
- Center for Latin American Studies University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611 USA
| | - Wendell P. Cropper
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611‐0410 USA
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16
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17
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Hemrová L, Bullock JM, Hooftman DAP, White SM, Münzbergová Z. Drivers of plant species’ potential to spread: the importance of demography versus seed dispersal. OIKOS 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.03975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lucie Hemrová
- Inst. of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences; CZ-252 43, Průhonice Czech Republic
| | - James M. Bullock
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford; Oxfordshire UK
| | - Danny A. P. Hooftman
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford; Oxfordshire UK
- Lactuca: Environmental Data Analysis and Modelling; Diemen the Netherlands
| | - Steven M. White
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford; Oxfordshire UK
- Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Inst., Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Oxford; Oxfordshire UK
| | - Zuzana Münzbergová
- Inst. of Botany, The Czech Academy of Sciences; CZ-252 43, Průhonice Czech Republic
- Dept of Botany; Faculty of Science, Charles Univ.; Prague Czech Republic
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18
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Population viability analysis of plant and animal populations with stochastic integral projection models. Oecologia 2016; 182:1031-1043. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-016-3704-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2014] [Accepted: 08/10/2016] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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19
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Katz DSW. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis. Oecologia 2016; 182:43-53. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-016-3602-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2015] [Accepted: 03/06/2016] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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20
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González EJ, Martorell C, Bolker BM. Inverse estimation of integral projection model parameters using time series of population‐level data. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Edgar J. González
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
| | - Carlos Martorell
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Circuito Exterior s/n Ciudad Universitaria 04510 México D.F Mexico
| | - Benjamin M. Bolker
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
- Department of Biology McMaster University 1280 Main St W L8S4L8 Hamilton Ontario Canada
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21
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Metcalf CJE, Ellner SP, Childs DZ, Salguero‐Gómez R, Merow C, McMahon SM, Jongejans E, Rees M. Statistical modelling of annual variation for inference on stochastic population dynamics using Integral Projection Models. Methods Ecol Evol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- C. Jessica E. Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
| | - Stephen P. Ellner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca NY USA
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield University Sheffield UK
| | - Roberto Salguero‐Gómez
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research Rostock 18057 Germany
- School of Biological Sciences Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science The University of Queensland St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia
| | - Cory Merow
- Division of Migratory Bird Management United States Fish and Wildlife Service Laurel MD USA
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center Edgewater MD USA
| | | | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | - Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield University Sheffield UK
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22
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Martínez-Ballesté A, Martorell C. Effects of harvest on the sustainability and leaf productivity of populations of two palm species in Maya homegardens. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0120666. [PMID: 25803029 PMCID: PMC4372575 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2014] [Accepted: 02/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Traditional management practices are usually thought to be sustainable. The Maya manage Sabal (Arecaceae) palms in homegardens, using their leaves for thatching. The sustainability of such production systems depends on the long-term persistence of palm populations, whereas resource availability also depends on the number of leaves on individual palms. We examined how leaf harvest affects Sabal yapa and S. mexicana population growth rates (λ) and leaf production, comparing traditional and alternative harvest regimes in terms of sustainability and productivity. Demographic, harvest and leaf production data were recorded for three years in two homegardens. We used general integral projection models linked to leaf-production models to describe population dynamics and productivity. Harvest had no effect on S. yapa’s vital rates or on λ, but it changed the growth rate of individuals of S. mexicana, with a negligible impact on λ. Homegardens affected λ values, reflecting the species’ ecological affinities. S. mexicana, introduced from mesic forests, required watering and shade; therefore, its population declined rapidly in the homegarden that lacked both water and shade. The λ of the xerophilic S. yapa was slightly larger without watering than with watering. Palms usually compensated for leaf extraction, causing the number of leaves harvested per individual to increase with harvest intensity. Nevertheless, traditional management is relatively mild, allowing standing leaves to accumulate but reducing the homegarden’s yield. Apparently, the Maya do not seek to maximize annual production but to ensure the availability of large numbers of leaves in homegardens. These leaves may then be used when the entire roof of a hut needs to be replaced every few years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Martínez-Ballesté
- Jardín Botánico, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F. Mexico
| | - Carlos Martorell
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F. Mexico
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23
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Simmonds EG, Coulson T. Analysis of phenotypic change in relation to climatic drivers in a population of Soay sheepOvis aries. OIKOS 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Emily G. Simmonds
- Imperial College London, Division of Biology; Faculty of Life Sciences, Imperial College at Silwood Park; Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY UK
| | - Tim Coulson
- Imperial College London, Division of Biology; Faculty of Life Sciences, Imperial College at Silwood Park; Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY UK
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24
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Picard N, Liang J. Matrix models for size-structured populations: unrealistic fast growth or simply diffusion? PLoS One 2014; 9:e98254. [PMID: 24905941 PMCID: PMC4048208 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2014] [Accepted: 04/29/2014] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Matrix population models are widely used to study population dynamics but have been criticized because their outputs are sensitive to the dimension of the matrix (or, equivalently, to the class width). This sensitivity is concerning for the population growth rate (λ) because this is an intrinsic characteristic of the population that should not depend on the model specification. It has been suggested that the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension was linked to the existence of fast pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically move up a class), whose proportion increases when class width increases. We showed that for matrix population models with growth transition only from class i to class i + 1, λ was independent of the class width when the mortality and the recruitment rates were constant, irrespective of the growth rate. We also showed that if there were indeed fast pathways, there were also in about the same proportion slow pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically remained in the same class), and that they jointly act as a diffusion process (where diffusion here is the movement in size of an individual whose size increments are random according to a normal distribution with mean zero). For 53 tree species from a tropical rain forest in the Central African Republic, the diffusion resulting from common matrix dimensions was much stronger than would be realistic. Yet, the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension for a class width in the range 1-10 cm was small, much smaller than the sampling uncertainty on the value of λ. Moreover, λ could either increase or decrease when class width increased depending on the species. Overall, even if the class width should be kept small enough to limit diffusion, it had little impact on the estimate of λ for tree species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Picard
- UPR Biens et services des écosystèmes forestiers tropicaux (BSEF), Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France
| | - Jingjing Liang
- Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, United States of America
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25
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Fu L, Tang S, Liu Y, Sharma RP, Zhang H, Lei Y, Wang H, Song X. Developing, testing and application of rodent population dynamics and capture models based on an adjusted Leslie matrix-based population approach. INT J BIOMATH 2014. [DOI: 10.1142/s1793524514500247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Apodemus agrarius in particular, damage crops and cause major economic losses in China. Therefore, accurate predictions of the population size of A. agrarius and an efficient control strategy are urgently needed. We developed a population dynamics model by applying a Leslie matrix method, and a capture model based on optimal harvesting theory for A. agrarius. Our models were parametrized using demographic estimates from a capture–mark–recapture (CMR) study conducted on the Qinshui Forest Farm in Northwestern China. The population dynamics model incorporated 12 equally balanced age groups and included immigration and emigration parameters. The model was evaluated by assessing the predictions for four years based on the known starting population in 2004 from the 2004–2007 CMR data. The capture model incorporated two functional age categories (juvenile and adult) and used density-dependent and density-independent factors. The models were used to assess the effect of rodent control measures between 2004 and 2023 on population dynamics and the resulting numbers of rats. Three control measures affecting survival rates were considered. We found that the predicted population dynamics of A. agrarius between 2004 and 2007 compared favorably with the observed population dynamics. The models predicted that the population sizes of A. agrarius in the period between 2004 and 2023 under the control measure applied in August 2004 were very similar to the optimal population sizes, and no significant difference was found between the two population sizes. We recommend using the population dynamics and capture models based on CMR-estimated demographic schedules for rodent, provided these data are available. The models that we have developed have the potential to play an important role in predicting the effects of rodent management and in evaluating different control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liyong Fu
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
| | - Shouzheng Tang
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
| | - Yingan Liu
- Department of Mathematics, Nanjing Forest University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210037, P. R. China
| | - Ram P. Sharma
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås 1432, Norway
| | - Huiru Zhang
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
| | - Yuancai Lei
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
| | - Hong Wang
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
| | - Xinyu Song
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, P. R. China
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26
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Rees M, Childs DZ, Ellner SP, Coulson T. Building integral projection models: a user's guide. J Anim Ecol 2014; 83:528-45. [PMID: 24219157 PMCID: PMC4258094 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2013] [Accepted: 11/05/2013] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Stephen P Ellner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY, 14853-2701, USA
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western BankSheffield, S10 2TN, UK
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY, 14853-2701, USA
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27
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Merow C, Dahlgren JP, Metcalf CJE, Childs DZ, Evans ME, Jongejans E, Record S, Rees M, Salguero-Gómez R, McMahon SM. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 172] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Cory Merow
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; 647 Contees Wharf Rd Edgewater MD 21307 Edgewater MD 21307-0028 USA
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Connecticut; Storrs CT 06269 USA
| | - Johan P. Dahlgren
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences; Stockholm University; Stockholm Sweden
- Department of Biology and Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging; University of Southern Denmark; Odense Denmark
| | - C. Jessica E. Metcalf
- Department of Zoology; Oxford University; Oxford UK
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Princeton University; Princeton NJ USA
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield UK
| | - Margaret E.K. Evans
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology; Institute for Water and Wetland Research; Radboud University Nijmegen; Nijmegen The Netherlands
| | - Sydne Record
- Harvard University; Harvard Forest Petersham MA USA
| | - Mark Rees
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield UK
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Evolutionary Demography laboratory; Rostock Germany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science; University of Queensland; St Lucia Qld Australia
| | - Sean M. McMahon
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; 647 Contees Wharf Rd Edgewater MD 21307 Edgewater MD 21307-0028 USA
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28
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Ramula S. Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb. Oecologia 2014; 174:1255-64. [PMID: 24390414 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-013-2869-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2013] [Accepted: 12/18/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satu Ramula
- Aronia Coastal Zone Research Team, Åbo Akademi University and Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborgsvägen 9, 10600, Ekenäs, Finland,
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29
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Zeigler SL, Che-Castaldo JP, Neel MC. Actual and potential use of population viability analyses in recovery of plant species listed under the US endangered species act. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2013; 27:1265-1278. [PMID: 24033732 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2012] [Accepted: 04/04/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade-offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty-four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species' entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive-management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long-term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science-based recovery criteria for endangered species with minimal data availability. Uso Actual y Potencial del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional para la Recuperación de Especies de Plantas Enlistadas en el Acta de Especies En Peligro de E.U.A.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara L Zeigler
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, U.S.A..
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30
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Cursach J, Besnard A, Rita J, Fréville H. Demographic variation and conservation of the narrow endemic plant Ranunculus weyleri. ACTA OECOLOGICA 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.actao.2013.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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31
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Differential effects of abandonment on the demography of the grassland perennial Succisa pratensis. POPUL ECOL 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-013-0400-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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32
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Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models. J Math Biol 2013; 69:1-37. [DOI: 10.1007/s00285-013-0689-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2012] [Revised: 05/08/2013] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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33
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Tanentzap AJ, Zou J, Coomes DA. Getting the biggest birch for the bang: restoring and expanding upland birchwoods in the Scottish Highlands by managing red deer. Ecol Evol 2013; 3:1890-901. [PMID: 23919137 PMCID: PMC3728932 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2013] [Revised: 02/25/2013] [Accepted: 03/04/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
High deer populations threaten the conservation value of woodlands and grasslands, but predicting the success of deer culling, in terms of allowing vegetation to recover, is difficult. Numerical simulation modeling is one approach to gain insight into the outcomes of management scenarios. We develop a spatially explicit model to predict the responses of Betula spp. to red deer (Cervus elaphus) and land management in the Scottish Highlands. Our model integrates a Bayesian stochastic stage-based matrix model within the framework of a widely used individual-based forest simulation model, using data collected along spatial and temporal gradients in deer browsing. By initializing our model with the historical spatial locations of trees, we find that densities of juvenile trees (<3 m tall) predicted after 9–13 years closely match counts observed in the field. This is among the first tests of the accuracy of a dynamical simulation model for predicting the responses of tree regeneration to herbivores. We then test the relative importance of deer browsing, ground cover vegetation, and seed availability in facilitating landscape-level birch regeneration using simulations in which we varied these three variables. We find that deer primarily control transitions of birch to taller (>3 m) height tiers over 30 years, but regeneration also requires suitable ground cover for seedling establishment. Densities of adult seed sources did not influence regeneration, nor did an active management scenario where we altered the spatial configuration of adults by creating “woodland islets”. Our results show that managers interested in maximizing tree regeneration cannot simply reduce deer densities but must also improve ground cover for seedling establishment, and the model we develop now enables managers to quantify explicitly how much both these factors need to be altered. More broadly, our findings emphasize the need for land managers to consider the impacts of large herbivores rather than their densities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Tanentzap
- Forest Ecology and Conservation Group, Department of Plant Sciences, Downing Street, University of Cambridge Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK
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34
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Salguero-Gómez R, Siewert W, Casper BB, Tielbörger K. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 367:3100-14. [PMID: 23045708 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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35
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Metcalf CJE, McMahon SM, Salguero-Gómez R, Jongejans E. IPMpack: an R package for integral projection models. Methods Ecol Evol 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Sean M. McMahon
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Edgewater; MD; 21307-0028; USA
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Evolutionary Biodemography Laboratory; Konrad Zuse Straβe 1; 18057; Rostock; Germany
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Institute for Water and Wetland Research; Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology; Radboud University Nijmegen; Heyendaalseweg 135; 6525; AJ Nijmegen; The Netherlands
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36
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Vindenes Y, Sæther BE, Engen S. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics. Theor Popul Biol 2012; 82:253-63. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2011] [Revised: 10/12/2011] [Accepted: 10/17/2011] [Indexed: 10/16/2022]
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37
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Williams JL, Miller TEX, Ellner SP. Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models. Ecology 2012; 93:2008-14. [PMID: 23094372 DOI: 10.1890/11-2147.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L Williams
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101, USA.
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38
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González EJ, Rees M, Martorell C. Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter? Oecologia 2012; 171:347-56. [PMID: 22955702 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-012-2432-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2011] [Accepted: 08/06/2012] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The identification of the demographic processes responsible for the decline in population growth rate (λ) in disturbed areas would allow conservation efforts to be efficiently directed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are used for this purpose, but it is unclear whether the conclusions drawn from their analysis are sensitive to how functional structures (the functions that describe how survival, growth and fecundity vary with individual size) are selected. We constructed 12 IPMs that differed in their functional structure by combining two reproduction models and three functional expressions (generalized linear, cubic and additive models), each with and without simplification. Models were parameterized with data from two populations of two endangered cacti subject to different disturbance intensities. For each model, we identified the demographic processes that most affected λ in the presence of disturbance. Simulations were performed on artificial data and analyzed as above to assess the generality of the results. In both empirical and simulated data, the same processes were identified as making the largest contribution to changes in λ regardless of the functional structure. The major differences in the results were due to misspecification of the fecundity functions, whilst functional expression and model simplification had lesser effects. Therefore, as long as the demographic attributes of the species are well known and incorporated into the model, IPMs will robustly identify the processes that most affect the growth of populations subject to disturbance, making them a reliable tool for developing conservation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edgar J González
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
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Hahn MA, Buckley YM, Müller-Schärer H. Increased population growth rate in invasive polyploidCentaurea stoebein a common garden. Ecol Lett 2012; 15:947-54. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01813.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2011] [Revised: 01/17/2012] [Accepted: 05/11/2012] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Min A. Hahn
- Department of Biology; Ecology and Evolution; University of Fribourg; Chemin du Musée 10; 1700; Fribourg; Switzerland
| | | | - Heinz Müller-Schärer
- Department of Biology; Ecology and Evolution; University of Fribourg; Chemin du Musée 10; 1700; Fribourg; Switzerland
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40
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Stott I, Hodgson DJ, Townley S. Beyond sensitivity: nonlinear perturbation analysis of transient dynamics. Methods Ecol Evol 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00199.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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41
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Caplat P, Coutts S, Buckley YM. Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2012; 1249:72-83. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06313.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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42
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Vindenes Y, Engen S, Saether BE. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment. Ecology 2011; 92:1146-56. [PMID: 21661575 DOI: 10.1890/10-0500.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yngvild Vindenes
- Centre for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
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43
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Choice of density-dependent seedling recruitment function affects predicted transient dynamics: a case study with Platte thistle. THEOR ECOL-NETH 2011. [DOI: 10.1007/s12080-011-0131-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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44
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Buckley YM, Ramula S, Blomberg SP, Burns JH, Crone EE, Ehrlén J, Knight TM, Pichancourt JB, Quested H, Wardle GM. Causes and consequences of variation in plant population growth rate: a synthesis of matrix population models in a phylogenetic context. Ecol Lett 2010; 13:1182-97. [PMID: 20561015 DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01506.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yvonne M Buckley
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Queensland 4072, Australia
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