Development of a simple scoring tool in the primary care setting for prediction of recurrent falls in men and women aged 65 years and over living in the community

A systematic review of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults: comparison between models based on research cohorts and models based on routinely collected data

BACKGROUND

Prediction models can identify fall-prone individuals. Prediction models can be based on either data from research cohorts (cohort-based) or routinely collected data (RCD-based). We review and compare cohort-based and RCD-based studies describing the development and/or validation of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched via Ovid until January 2023. We included studies describing the development or validation of multivariable prediction models of falls in older adults (60+). Both risk of bias and reporting quality were assessed using the PROBAST and TRIPOD, respectively.

RESULTS

We included and reviewed 28 relevant studies, describing 30 prediction models (23 cohort-based and 7 RCD-based), and external validation of two existing models (one cohort-based and one RCD-based). The median sample sizes for cohort-based and RCD-based studies were 1365 [interquartile range (IQR) 426-2766] versus 90 441 (IQR 56 442-128 157), and the ranges of fall rates were 5.4% to 60.4% versus 1.6% to 13.1%, respectively. Discrimination performance was comparable between cohort-based and RCD-based models, with the respective area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.65 to 0.88 versus 0.71 to 0.81. The median number of predictors in cohort-based final models was 6 (IQR 5-11); for RCD-based models, it was 16 (IQR 11-26). All but one cohort-based model had high bias risks, primarily due to deficiencies in statistical analysis and outcome determination.

CONCLUSIONS

Cohort-based models to predict falls in older adults in the community are plentiful. RCD-based models are yet in their infancy but provide comparable predictive performance with no additional data collection efforts. Future studies should focus on methodological and reporting quality.

Body mass index and risk of recurrent falls in community-dwelling Japanese aged 40-74 years: The Murakami cohort study

AIMS

A prior meta-analysis found that obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m² ) was associated with a high fall risk, while being overweight (BMI≥25, <30 kg/m² ) was associated with the lowest fall risk. However, whether these associations hold true for East Asians is unknown. This study aimed to assess the association between BMI and incidence of recurrent falls in Japanese aged 40-74 years.

METHODS

This 5-year follow-up cohort study involved 7538 community-dwelling individuals who did not experience recurrent falls in the year before the baseline study. Information on demographics, body size, lifestyle, and disease history was obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. BMI was categorized as <18.5 (underweight), 18.5-20.6 (low-normal), 20.7-22.7 (mid-normal, reference), 22.8-24.9 (high-normal), and ≥ 25.0 kg/m² (overweight). The outcome was recurrent falls reported, and fall history in the previous year was recorded as none, once, or twice or more (recurrent falls).

RESULTS

Mean BMI was 23.5 kg/m² (SD 2.9) for men and 22.7 kg/m² (SD 3.2) for women. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for recurrent falls in the BMI ≥25 group was significantly higher (1.41, 95%CI: 1.02-1.93) than that in the reference group. The adjusted OR in the BMI ≥25 group was significantly higher than that in the reference group for the age ≥ 60 subgroup (1.62, 95%CI: 1.09-2.40), but not for the age < 60 subgroup (OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 0.60-1.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Being overweight may be a risk factor for recurrent falls in community-dwelling older Japanese. Further studies are needed to determine the underlying mechanism. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 498-505.

"Study protocol for the ≥65 years NOrthern jutland Cohort of Fall risk Assessment with Objective measurements (the NOCfao study)"

Background

Accidental falls are common among community-dwellers, probably due to the level of physical activity and impaired postural stability. Today, fall risk prediction tools’ discriminative validity are only moderate. In order to increase the accuracy, multiple variables such as highly validated objective field measurements of physical activity and impaired postural stability should be adressed in order to predict falls. The main aim of this paper is to describe the ≥65 years NOrthern jutland Cohort of Fall risk Assessment with Objective measurements (NOCfao) investigating the association between physical activity and impaired postural stability and the risk of fall episodes among community-dwelling older adults.

Methods

The study consists of a baseline session where the participants are asked to respond to three questionnaires, perform physical tests (i.e., measuring strength in the upper and lower extremities, balance, and walking speed), participate in an assessment of pain sensitivity, and to wear an ankle mounted pedometer for measuring physical activity for 5 days. Subsequently, the fall incidences and the circumstances surrounding the falls during the previous 1 to 2 months will be recorded throughout a one-year follow-up period.

Discussion

This study will add to the present-day understanding of the association between physical activity and impaired postural stability and the risk of fall episodes among community-dwelling older adults. These data will provide valid and reliable information on the relationship between these variables and their significance for community-dwelling older adults.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT2995317. Registered December 13th, 2016.

Methodological standards for the development and evaluation of clinical prediction rules: a review of the literature

Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) that predict the absolute risk of a clinical condition or future outcome for individual patients are abundant in the medical literature; however, systematic reviews have demonstrated shortcomings in the methodological quality and reporting of prediction studies. To maximise the potential and clinical usefulness of CPRs, they must be rigorously developed and validated, and their impact on clinical practice and patient outcomes must be evaluated. This review aims to present a comprehensive overview of the stages involved in the development, validation and evaluation of CPRs, and to describe in detail the methodological standards required at each stage, illustrated with examples where appropriate. Important features of the study design, statistical analysis, modelling strategy, data collection, performance assessment, CPR presentation and reporting are discussed, in addition to other, often overlooked aspects such as the acceptability, cost-effectiveness and longer-term implementation of CPRs, and their comparison with clinical judgement. Although the development and evaluation of a robust, clinically useful CPR is anything but straightforward, adherence to the plethora of methodological standards, recommendations and frameworks at each stage will assist in the development of a rigorous CPR that has the potential to contribute usefully to clinical practice and decision-making and have a positive impact on patient care.

The Clinical Potential of Frailty Indicators on Identifying Recurrent Fallers in the Community: The Mr. Os and Ms. OS Cohort Study in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVES

To compare the clinical value of 3 frailty indicators in a screening pathway for identifying older men and women who are at risk of falls.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Four thousand Chinese adults (2000 men) aged ≥65 years were recruited from the community in Hong Kong.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Health Study Criteria, the FRAIL scale, and the Study for Osteoporosis and Fracture Criteria (SOF) were included for evaluation. Fall history was used as a comparative predictor. Recurrent falls during the second year after baseline was the primary outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the ability of the frailty indicators and fall history to predict recurrent falls. Independent predictors identified in logistic regression were put in the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to evaluate their performance in screening high-risk fallers.

RESULTS

Fall history predicts recurrent falls in both men and women (AUC: men = 0.681; women = 0.645) better than all frailty indicators (AUC ≤ 0.641). After adjusting for fall history, only FRAIL (AUC = 0.676) and SOF (AUC = 0.673) remained as significant predictors for women whereas no frailty indicator remained significant in men. FRAIL could classify older women into 2 groups with distinct chances of being a recurrent faller in people with no fall history (3.8% vs 7.5%), a single fall history (9.5% vs 37.5%), and history of recurrent falls (16.0% vs 30.8%). SOF has limited ability in identifying recurrent fallers in the group of older adults with a single fall history (no fall history: 3.9% vs 8.6%; single fall history: 10.2% vs 10.9%; history of recurrent falls: 16.5% vs 20.6%).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

SOF and FRAIL could provide some additional prediction value to fall history in older women but not men. FRAIL could be clinically useful in identifying older women at risk of recurrent falls, especially in those with a single fall history.

A 1-year prospective monocentric study of limb, spinal and pelvic fractures: Can monitoring fracture epidemiology impact injury prevention programmes?

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess fractures of extremities, spine and pelvis in patients with respect to mechanism, time of the incident and demography of patients in order to propose preventive measures.

METHODS

A mono-centric (Level I Trauma Centre, predominantly urban population) prospective study was carried-out during the one-year period from 1 January to 31 December 2012. Patients with bone fractures of extremities, spine and pelvis were studied. Demography, mechanism and time of the injury were analysed.

RESULTS

The study group consisted of 3,148 patients, 53% being women and treated for 3,909 fractures. The mean age of patients was 53 years. The most traumatised patients were of the 3rd and 4th decade, a further increase in the incidence of fractures was seen in the 7th and 9th decade. Multiple fractures were significantly higher in men (p = 0.002). A car crash or fall from a height was more common cause of spinal fracture or pelvic fracture than fracture to the upper or lower limbs (p < 0.001). Most of the fractures occurred during the day between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m., on Saturdays and during the winter season. The bones most often broken were the radius (739 patients, 18.5%) and femur (436 patients, 11.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the need for injury prevention focused on sex, age and types of activities performed. Among younger individuals, such programmes should primarily be targeted toward men who, as observed in our sample, have a higher fracture frequency compared to women. Conversely, injury prevention programmes for individuals ≥ 60 years should primarily be targeted toward women, who have the highest fracture prevalence in this population.

Nutritional Status, Body Mass Index, and the Risk of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between nutritional status, defined on the basis of a multidimensional evaluation, and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of falls and recurrent falls in community-dwelling older people.

DESIGN

Systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling older adults.

MEASURES

A systematic literature review was conducted on prospective studies identified through electronic and hand searches until October 2017. A random effects meta-analysis was used to evaluate the relative risk (RR) of experiencing falls and recurrent falls (≥2 falls within at least 6 months) on the basis of nutritional status, defined by multidimensional scores. A random effects dose-response meta-analysis was used to evaluate the association between BMI and the risk of falls and recurrent falls.

RESULTS

People who were malnourished or those at risk for malnutrition had a pooled 45% higher risk of experiencing at least 1 fall than were those well-nourished (9510 subjects). Increased falls risk was observed in subjects malnourished versus well-nourished [RR 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.28; 3 studies, 8379 subjects], whereas no substantial results were observed for risk of recurrent falls. A U-shaped association was detected between BMI and the risk for falls (P < .001), with the nadir between 24.5 and 30 (144,934 subjects). Taking a BMI of 23.5 as reference, the pooled RR of falling ranged between 1.09 (95% CI 1.04-1.15) for a BMI of 17, to 1.07 (95% CI 0.92-1.24) for a BMI of 37.5. No associations were observed between BMI and recurrent falls (120,185 subjects).

CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS

The results of our work suggest therefore that nutritional status and BMI should be evaluated when assessing the risk for falls in older age.

The role of previous falls in major osteoporotic fracture prediction in conjunction with FRAX in older Chinese men and women: the Mr. OS and Ms. OS cohort study in Hong Kong

Falls are a major concern in terms of fracture risk. Although awareness rising for the absence of falls in the FRAX algorithm, our study only identified the independent predictive role of previous recurrent falls and their better conjunction use with FRAX for major osteoporotic fracture prediction in older Chinese men.

INTRODUCTION

Although the association of falls with fracture has been widely explored, the impact of previous falls is not included in the FRAX algorithm currently. Our aim was to examine the FRAX-independent associations between falls in the previous year and subsequent fracture risk, as well as the conjunctive use of falls and the FRAX score for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) prediction in older Chinese people.

METHODS

Four thousand community older men and women aged 65 years or older were followed up for 9.9 ± 2.7 and 8.8 ± 1.5 years, respectively. The associations between falls in the previous 1 year and MOF risk by follow-up years were evaluated using the Fine and Gray model. New prediction scores were calculated by incorporating the falls and FRAX scores using the Fine and Gray model, or developed by adjusting the FRAX scores by 30% increased risk for each fall in the previous year. The predictive powers for MOF risk between the new scores and FRAX scores were evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) and category-based net reclassification improvement index (NRI).

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 139 (7.0%) men and 236 (11.8%) women had at least one incident MOF. One previous fall significantly predicted the first year incident MOF in men [hazard ratio (HR) (95%CI), 3.47 (1.02, 11.80)]. Previous recurrent falls significantly predicted a 10-year incident MOF in men [HR (95%CI), 2.42 (1.30, 4.51)]. In men, the fall-adjusting FRAX scores showed significant improvement on total net reclassification of fracture (3-6%). No improved predictive accuracy shown in women.

CONCLUSION

Falls in the previous year are likely to provide some predictive power to FRAX for MOF risk assessment in older Chinese men, but not women.

Incidence and related clinical factors of falls among older Chinese veterans in military communities: a prospective study

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to determine fall incidence and explore clinical factors of falls among older Chinese veterans in military communities. [Subjects and Methods] We carried out a 12-month prospective study among 13 military communities in Beijing, China. Fall events were obtained by self-report to military community liaisons and monthly telephone interviews by researchers. [Results] Among the final sample of 447 older veterans, 86 fell once, 25 fell twice or more, and 152 falls occurred altogether. The incidence of falls and fallers were 342/1,000 person-years and 249/1,000 person-years. In Cox regression models, independent clinical factors associated with falls were visual acuity (RR=0.47), stroke (RR=2.43), lumbar diseases (RR=1.73), sedatives (RR=1.80), fall history in the past 6 months (RR=2.77), multiple chronic diseases (RR=1.53), multiple medications (RR=1.34), and five-repetition sit-to-stand test score (RR=1.41). Hearing acuity was close to being statistically significant. [Conclusion] The incidences of falls and fallers among older Chinese veterans were lower than those of Hong Kong and western countries. The clinical risk factors of falls were poor senses, stroke, lumbar diseases, taking sedatives, fall history in the past 6 months, having multiple chronic diseases, taking multiple medications, and poor physical function. The preventive strategies targeting the above risk factors are very significant for reducing falls.

[Risk of falls in the elderly: an integrative review based on the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association]

The objective of this study was to analyze the scientific production regarding risk factors for falls in the elderly, based on the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association found in the Brazilian and international literature from 2005 to 2010. This integrative review was performed using the descriptors: accidental falls and elderly, utilizing the following databases: Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Latin-American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature. Thirty-two articles were selected for content analysis. The results are presented according to the risk factors indicated by the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association, which are: environmental risk factors, such as rooms with excessive furniture and objects/rugs on the floor, poor illumination, and slippery floors; cognitive risk factors such as reduced mental state; risk factors in adults such as age above 65 years; physiological risk factors such as impaired balance, visual difficulties, incontinence, difficulty in walking, and neoplasms; and risk factors associated with the use of certain medications. An examination of the risk factors for falls in the elderly shows the need to develop new strategies to change environments and intrinsic components.

Depressive symptoms in addition to visual impairment, reduced strength and poor balance predict falls in older Taiwanese people

OBJECTIVE

to determine whether depression is an important and independent predictor of falls in community-dwelling older people living in Taiwan.

DESIGN

longitudinal study.

SETTING

five randomly selected villages from Tainan city, Taiwan.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

in total, 280 community-dwelling people not taking anti-depressant medication aged 65-91 years (mean age 74.9). Participants completed the Geriatric Depression Scale and underwent a range of sensorimotor, balance and mobility tasks and were then followed up for 2 years with monthly telephone calls to determine falls incidence.

RESULTS

of the 260 participants with complete follow-up data, 174 (66.9%) experienced no falls, 51 (19.6%) fell once and 35 (13.5%) fell two or more times. Depressive symptoms were significantly more prevalent in recurrent fallers (40.0%) and once-only fallers (27.5%) compared with non-fallers (16.1%). Negative binomial regression analysis identified depression, poor depth perception, reduced lower limb strength and increased sway as independent and significant predictors of falls.

CONCLUSION

depressive symptoms were found to be common in older Taiwanese people and associated with an increased fall risk. These findings suggest that in addition to implementing approaches to maximise vision, strength and balance, fall prevention strategies should also include interventions to assess and treat depression.

Completion and return of fall diaries varies with participants' level of education, first language, and baseline fall risk

BACKGROUND

Consensus guidelines recommend the use of prospective fall diaries in studies of fall rates. We sought to determine the characteristics associated with return and successful completion of a falls diary and whether characteristics such as gender, education level, native language, income, and falls risk influenced self-reported fall rates.

METHODS

Two hundred and seventy people aged 65 years and older participating in a randomized controlled trial evaluating two exercise programmes. Fall diaries were collected for 6 months, then evaluated for correct completion and falls reported.

RESULTS

An increasing risk of falls was associated with a reducing odds of returning diaries (odds ratio for a one unit increase in Falls Risk Assessment Tool score 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.96). Native English speakers were more likely to complete more than half the diaries correctly (odds ratio 2.63, 95% confidence interval 1.20-5.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Problems arise in the correct completion of falls diaries among those for whom English is not their first language. Diaries may underreport the rate of falls as those at higher risk were less likely to return diaries but more likely to report falls. Careful consideration should be given to the analysis of falls diaries as missing data are unlikely to be missing completely at random. We recommend additional training in the use of falls diaries for these groups or the utilization of simpler instruments.

A screening tool with five risk factors was developed for fall-risk prediction in community-dwelling elderly

OBJECTIVE

To develop a simple clinical screening tool for community-dwelling older adults.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed among healthy subjects of 65 years and older, examined in 10 health examination centers for the French health insurance. Falls were ascertained monthly by telephone for 12-month follow-up. Multivariate analyses using Cox regression models were performed. Regression coefficients of the predictors in the final model were added up to obtain the total score. The discriminative power was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Thousand seven hundred fifty-nine subjects were included. The mean age was 70.7 years and 51% were women. At least one fall occurred among 563 (32%) participants. Gender, living alone, psychoactive drug use, osteoarthritis, previous falls, and a change in the position of the arms during the one-leg balance (OLB) test were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to build a risk score. The AUC of the score was 0.70. For a cutoff point of 1.68 in a total of 4.90, the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72.0% and 72.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A screening tool with five risk factors and the OLB test could predict falls in healthy community-dwelling older adults.

Falls incidence, risk factors, and consequences in Chinese older people: a systematic review

Falls incidence in Chinese older people has been reported to be approximately half that of Caucasian populations. It is possible that the falls risk factor profile may differ significantly between Caucasian and Chinese populations, and a better understanding of this reported difference in incidence and associated risk factors may influence potential approaches to future intervention. A systematic literature review was conducted using the EMBase, Medline, Chinese Electronic Periodical Services, and WanFangdata databases to collate and evaluate the studies that have addressed the incidence and risk factors for falls in Chinese older people. Twenty-one studies conducted in China, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, and Taiwan met the inclusion criteria. Fall rates ranged between 14.7% and 34% per annum (median 18%). In the four prospective studies, injuries were reported by 60% to 75% of those reporting falls, with fractures constituting 6% to 8% of all injuries. One hundred thirty-two variables were identified as fall risk factors, with commonly reported factors being female sex, older age, use of multiple medications, gait instability, fear of falling, and decline in activities of daily living. The findings reveal a consistently lower incidence of self-reported falls in Chinese older people than in Caucasian older people, although the types and prevalence of risk factors were not dissimilar from those found in studies of Caucasian older people. A greater understanding of the health, behavioral, and lifestyle factors that influence fall rates in Chinese populations is required for elucidating fall prevention strategies in Chinese and non-Chinese older people.