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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Vongpradith A, Maddison ER, Novotney A, Biehl MH, LeGrand KE, Ross JM, Jahagirdar D, Bryazka D, Feldman R, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adebayo OM, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad SA, Ahmadi S, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alemayehu Y, Alene KA, Ali BA, Ali L, Alipour V, Alizade H, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Amit AML, Anderson JA, Androudi S, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arja A, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Azhar GS, B DB, Babar ZUD, Baig AA, Banach M, Barqawi HJ, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Belgaumi UI, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Boloor A, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Carter A, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Claassens MM, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darwesh AM, Dhamnetiya D, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Doan LP, Eftekharzadeh S, Elhadi M, Emami A, Enany S, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Frank TD, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Calavaro C, Garg T, Geberemariyam BS, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Golechha M, Goodridge A, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haider MR, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Hezam K, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Hussain R, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Ismail NE, Itumalla R, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jain V, Javanmardi F, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joukar F, Kabir Z, Kamath A, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Katoto PDMC, Kayode GA, Kendrick PJ, Kerbo AA, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khatab K, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar N, Kwarteng A, Lak HM, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lin C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Lozano R, Machado DB, Madhava Kunjathur S, Madi D, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Malik AA, Martins-Melo FR, Mehta S, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merie HE, Mersha AG, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Mheidly NM, Misra S, Mithra P, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Molokhia M, Moni MA, Montasir AA, Moore CE, Nagarajan AJ, Nair S, Nair S, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen TH, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Olagunju AT, Oren E, P A M, Parthasarathi R, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pattanshetty SM, Paudel R, Paul P, Pawar S, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pirestani M, Polibin RV, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Prashant A, Pribadi DRA, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezahosseini O, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Roshandel G, Roshchin DO, Sabour S, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salam N, Samadi Kafil H, Samaei M, Samy AM, Saroshe S, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sawyer SM, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shaikh MA, Sharafi K, Shetty RS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Silva JP, Singh JK, Sinha S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Sufiyan MB, Tabuchi T, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tarkang EE, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Thapar R, Tleyjeh II, Tobe-Gai R, Tran BX, Tsegaye B, Tsegaye GW, Ullah A, Umeokonkwo CD, Valadan Tahbaz S, Vo B, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Walters MK, Whisnant JL, Woldekidan MA, Wubishet BL, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yazie TSY, Yeshaw Y, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Zumla A, Mokdad AH, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Lim SS, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2022; 22:222-241. [PMID: 34563275 PMCID: PMC8799634 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00449-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/15/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males. INTERPRETATION As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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