Vector-borne diseases and the basic reproduction number: a case study of African horse sickness

Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens

Many vector-borne diseases are affected by the seasonality of the environment. Yet, seasonality can act on distinct steps of the life cycle of the pathogen and it is often difficult to predict the influence of the periodic fluctuations of the environment on the basic reproduction ratio R0 of vector-borne pathogens. Here, we analyse a general vector-borne disease model and we account for periodic fluctuations of different components of the pathogen's life cycle. We develop a perturbation analysis framework to obtain useful approximations to evaluate the overall consequences of seasonality on the R0 of the pathogen. This analysis reveals when seasonality is expected to increase or to decrease pathogen persistence. We show that seasonality in vector density or in the biting rate of the vector can have opposite effects on persistence and we provide a useful biological explanation for this result based on the covariance between key compartments of the epidemiological model. This framework could be readily extended to explore the influence of seasonality on other components of the life cycle of vector-borne pathogens.

A 'Portfolio of Model Approximations' approach to understanding invasion success with vector-borne disease

The central challenge of mathematical modeling of real-world systems is to strike an appropriate balance between insightful abstraction and detailed accuracy. Models in mathematical epidemiology frequently tend to either extreme, focusing on analytically provable boundaries in simplified, mass-action approximations, or else relying on calculated numerical solutions and computational simulation experiments to capture nuance and details specific to a particular host-disease system. We propose that there is value in an approach striking a slightly different compromise in which a detailed but analytically difficult system is modeled with careful detail, but then abstraction is applied to the results of numerical solutions to that system, rather than to the biological system itself. In this 'Portfolio of Model Approximations' approach, multiple levels of approximation are used to analyze the model at different scales of complexity. While this method has the potential to introduce error in the translation from model to model, it also has the potential to produce generalizable insight for the set of all similar systems, rather than isolated, tailored results that must be started anew for each next question. In this paper, we demonstrate this process and its value with a case study from evolutionary epidemiology. We consider a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for a vector-borne pathogen affecting two annually reproducing hosts. From observing patterns in simulations of the system and exploiting basic epidemiological properties, we construct two approximations of the model at different levels of complexity that can be treated as hypotheses about the behavior of the model. We compare the predictions of the approximations to the simulated results and discuss the trade-offs between accuracy and abstraction. We discuss the implications for this particular model, and in the context of mathematical biology in general.

Host competence, interspecific competition and vector preference interact to determine the vector-borne infection ecology

Understanding how ecological interactions affect vector-borne disease dynamics is crucial in the context of rapid biodiversity loss and increased emerging vector-borne diseases. Although there have been many studies on the impact of interspecific competition and host competence on disease dynamics, few of them have addressed the case of a vector-borne disease. Using a simple compartment model with two competing host species and one vector, we investigated the combined effects of vector preference, host competence, and interspecific competition on disease risk in a vector-borne system. Our research demonstrated that disease transmission dynamics in multi-host communities are more complex than anticipated. Vector preference and differences in host competence shifted the direction of the effect of competition on community disease risk, yet interspecific competition quantitatively but not qualitatively changed the effect of vector preference on disease risk. Our work also identified the conditions of the dilution effect and amplification effect in frequency-dependent transmission mode, and we discovered that adding vector preference and interspecific competition into a simple two-host-one-vector model altered the outcomes of how increasing species richness affects disease risk. Our work explains some of the variation in outcomes in previous empirical and theoretical studies on the dilution effect.

Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.

Approximation methods for analyzing multiscale stochastic vector-borne epidemic models

Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of diseases. This problem further becomes intense when complexity of diseases increases as in the case of vector-borne diseases (VBD). The VBDs are human illnesses caused by pathogens transmitted among humans by intermediate species, which are primarily arthropods. In this study, a stochastic VBD model is developed and novel mathematical methods are described and evaluated to systematically analyze the model and understand its complex dynamics. The VBD model incorporates some relevant features of the VBD transmission process including demographical, ecological and social mechanisms, and different host and vector dynamic scales. The analysis is based on dimensional reductions and model simplifications via scaling limit theorems. The results suggest that the dynamics of the stochastic VBD depends on a threshold quantity R₀, the initial size of infectives, and the type of scaling in terms of host population size. The quantity R₀ for deterministic counterpart of the model is interpreted as a threshold condition for infection persistence as is mentioned in the literature for many infectious disease models. Different scalings yield different approximations of the model, and in particular, if vectors have much faster dynamics, the effect of the vector dynamics on the host population averages out, which largely reduces the dimension of the model. Specific scenarios are also studied using simulations for some fixed sets of parameters to draw conclusions on dynamics.

How much does direct transmission between pigs contribute to Japanese Encephalitis virus circulation? A modelling approach in Cambodia

Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is the most important cause of human encephalitis throughout Asia and the Pacific. Although JE is a vector-borne disease, it has been demonstrated experimentally that transmission between pigs can occur through direct contact. Whether pig-to-pig transmission plays a role in the natural epidemiological cycle of JE remains unknown. To assess whether direct transmission between pigs may occur under field conditions, we built two mathematical models of JE transmission incorporating vector-borne transmission alone or a combination of vector-borne and direct transmission. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to estimate the parameters of the models. We fitted the models to (i) two serological datasets collected longitudinally from two pig cohorts (C1 and C2) during two periods of four months on a farm on the outskirts of Phnom-Penh, Cambodia and to (ii) a cross-sectional (CS) serological survey dataset collected from 505 swine coming from eight different provinces of Cambodia. In both cases, the model incorporating both vector-borne and direct transmission better explained the data. We computed the value of the basic reproduction number R₀ (2.93 for C1, 2.66 for C2 and 2.27 for CS), as well as the vector-borne reproduction number R_pv and the direct transmission reproduction number R_pp. We then determined the contribution of direct transmission on R₀ (11.90% for C1, 11.62% for C2 and 7.51% for CS). According to our results, the existence of pig-to-pig transmission is consistent with our swine serological data. Thus, direct transmission may contribute to the epidemiological cycle of JE in Cambodia. These results need to be confirmed in other eco-climatic settings, in particular in temperate areas where pig-to-pig transmission may facilitate the persistence of JE virus (JEV) during cold seasons when there are no or few mosquitoes.

Seasonal dynamics in mosquito abundance and temperature do not influence avian malaria prevalence in the Himalayan foothills

We examined seasonal prevalence in avian haemosporidians (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) in migrant and resident birds in western Himalaya, India. We investigated how infection with haemosporidians in avian hosts is associated with temporal changes in temperature and mosquito abundance along with host abundance and life‐history traits (body mass). Using molecular methods for parasite detection and sequencing partial cytochrome b gene, 12 Plasmodium and 27 Haemoproteus lineages were isolated. Our 1‐year study from December 2008 to December 2009 in tropical Himalayan foothills revealed a lack of seasonal variation in Plasmodium spp. prevalence in birds despite a strong correlation between mosquito abundance and temperature. The probability of infection with Plasmodium decreased with increase in temperature. Total parasite prevalence and specifically Plasmodium prevalence showed an increase with average avian body mass. In addition, total prevalence exhibited a U‐shaped relationship with avian host abundance. There was no difference in prevalence of Plasmodium spp. or Haemoproteus spp. across altitudes; parasite prevalence in high‐altitude locations was mainly driven by the seasonal migrants. One Haemoproteus lineage showed cross‐species infections between migrant and resident birds. This is the first molecular study in the tropical Himalayan bird community that emphasizes the importance of studying seasonal variation in parasite prevalence. Our study provides a basis for further evolutionary study on the epidemiology of avian malaria and spread of disease across Himalayan bird communities, which may not have been exposed to vectors and parasites throughout the year, with consequential implications to the risk of infection to naïve resident birds in high altitude.

Bifurcation thresholds and optimal control in transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases

In this paper, we derive and analyse a model for the control of arboviral diseases which takes into account an imperfect vaccine combined with some other control measures already studied in the literature. We begin by analysing the basic model without control. We prove the existence of two disease-free equilibrium points and the possible existence of up to two endemic equilibrium points (where the disease persists in the population). We show the existence of a transcritical bifurcation and a possible saddle-node bifurcation and explicitly derive threshold conditions for both, including defining the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], which provides whether the disease can persist in the population or not. The epidemiological consequence of saddle-node bifurcation is that the classical requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity, while necessary, is no longer sufficient for disease elimination from the population. It is further shown that in the absence of disease-induced death, the model does not exhibit this phenomenon. The model is extended by reformulating the model as an optimal control problem, with the use of five time dependent controls, to assess the impact of vaccination combined with treatment, individual protection and two vector control strategies (killing adult vectors and reduction of eggs and larvae). By using optimal control theory, we establish conditions under which the spread of disease can be stopped, and we examine the impact of combined control tools on the transmission dynamic of disease. The Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal control. Numerical simulations and efficiency analysis show that, vaccination combined with other control mechanisms, would reduce the spread of the disease appreciably.

Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area

Viruses that affect the health of humans and farm animals can spread over long distances via atmospheric mechanisms. The phenomenon of atmospheric long-distance dispersal (LDD) is associated with severe consequences because it may introduce pathogens into new areas. The introduction of new pathogens to Israel was attributed to LDD events numerous times. This provided the motivation for this study which is aimed to identify all the locations in the eastern Mediterranean that may serve as sources for pathogen incursion into Israel via LDD. This aim was achieved by calculating source-receptor relationship probability maps. These maps describe the probability that an infected vector or viral aerosol, once airborne, will have an atmospheric route that can transport it to a distant location. The resultant probability maps demonstrate a seasonal tendency in the probability of specific areas to serve as sources for pathogen LDD into Israel. Specifically, Cyprus' season is the summer; southern Turkey and the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos and Rhodes are associated with spring and summer; lower Egypt and Jordan may serve as sources all year round, except the summer months. The method used in this study can easily be implemented to any other geographic region. The importance of this study is the ability to provide a climatologically valid and accurate risk assessment tool to support long-term decisions regarding preparatory actions for future outbreaks long before a specific outbreak occurs.

MODELING THE INFECTION DYNAMICS OF ONCHOCERCIASIS AND ITS TREATMENT

Onchocerciasis is one of the neglected tropical diseases caused by Onchocerca volvulus. Ivermectin is known to be effective in the treatment of onchocerciasis because it suppresses the production of microfilariae by the adult female worms for a few months following treatment thus reducing transmission. In this study, a deterministic model is developed to assess the effect of mass treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin. The basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], of the model system is determined and it is observed that the model exhibits backward bifurcation for some parameters implying the existence of multiple endemic equilibria when [Formula: see text]. The existence of multiple equilibria emphasizes the fact that [Formula: see text] is not sufficient to eradicate the disease and the need is to lower [Formula: see text] much below one to make the disease-free equilibrium globally stable. Numerical simulations are done and conclusions drawn with respect to the known treatment protocols in endemic areas. The study results suggest that the mass treatment of the disease with ivermectin should cover a higher proportion of the population to control the disease and eventually eliminate it from the population.

Mechanistic model for predicting the seasonal abundance of Culicoides biting midges and the impacts of insecticide control

BACKGROUND

Understanding seasonal patterns of abundance of insect vectors is important for optimisation of control strategies of vector-borne diseases. Environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity and photoperiod influence vector abundance, but it is not generally known how these drivers combine to affect seasonal population dynamics.

METHODS

In this paper, we derive and analyse a novel mechanistic stage-structured simulation model for Culicoides biting midges-the principle vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses which cause mortality and morbidity in livestock and impact trade. We model variable life-history traits as functional forms that are dependent on environmental drivers, including air temperature, soil temperature and photoperiod. The model is fitted to Obsoletus group adult suction-trap data sampled daily at five locations throughout the UK for 2008.

RESULTS

The model predicts population dynamics that closely resemble UK field observations, including the characteristic biannual peaks of adult abundance. Using the model, we then investigate the effects of insecticide control, showing that control strategies focussing on the autumn peak of adult midge abundance have the highest impact in terms of population reduction in the autumn and averaged over the year. Conversely, control during the spring peak of adult abundance leads to adverse increases in adult abundance in the autumn peak.

CONCLUSIONS

The mechanisms of the biannual peaks of adult abundance, which are important features of midge seasonality in northern Europe and are key determinants of the risk of establishment and spread of midge-borne diseases, have been hypothesised over for many years. Our model suggests that the peaks correspond to two generations per year (bivoltine) are largely determined by pre-adult development. Furthermore, control strategies should focus on reducing the autumn peak since the immature stages are released from density-dependence regulation. We conclude that more extensive modelling of Culicoides biting midge populations in different geographical contexts will help to optimise control strategies and predictions of disease outbreaks.

Exploring vector-borne infection ecology in multi-host communities: A case study of West Nile virus

In this study, we develop a model to investigate how ecological factors might affect the dynamics of a vector-borne pathogen in a population composed by different hosts which interact with each other. Specifically, we consider the case when different host species compete with each other, as they share the same habitat, and the vector might have different feeding preference, which can also be time dependent. As a prototypical example, we apply our model to study the invasion and spread, during a typical season, of West Nile virus in an ecosystem composed of two competent avian host species and possibly of dead-end host species. We found that competition and vector feeding preferences can profoundly influence pathogen invasion, influencing its probability to start an epidemic, and influencing transmission rates. Finally, when considering time-dependent feeding preferences, as observed in the field, we noted that the virus circulation could be amplified and that the timing of epidemic peaks could be changed. Our work highlights that ecological interactions between hosts can have a profound influence on the dynamics of the pathogen and that, when modeling vector-borne infections, vector feeding behavior should, for this reason, be carefully evaluated.

Outdoor and indoor monitoring of livestock-associated Culicoides spp. to assess vector-free periods and disease risks

Background

Within the last few decades Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) emerged Europe-wide as a major vector for epizootic viral diseases e.g. caused by Bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg virus. In accordance with the EU regulation 1266/2007, veterinary authorities are requested to determine vector-free periods for loosing trade and movement restrictions of susceptible livestock. Additionally, the widely used basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}$\end{document}R0 is optionally applied for risk assessment of vector-borne diseases. Values of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}<1$\end{document}R0<1 indicate periods with no disease transmission risk. For the determination of vector-free period and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}$\end{document}R0 a continuously operating daily Culicoides spp. monitoring in Vienna (Austria) was established. It covered the period 2009–2013 and depicts the seasonal vector abundance indoor and outdoor. Future BT and African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak risks were estimated by projecting \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}$\end{document}R0 to climate change scenarios. Therefore, temperature-dependent vector parameters were applied.

Results

The vector-free period lasted about 100 days inside stables, while less than five Culicoides were trapped outdoors on 150 days per season, i.e. winter half year. Additionally, the potential outbreak risk was assessed for BT and AHS. For BT, a basic reproduction number of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}>1$\end{document}R0>1 was found each year between June and August. The periods without transmission risk, i.e. \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}<1$\end{document}R0<1, were notably higher (200 days). Contrary, values of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}<1$\end{document}R0<1 were estimated for AHS during the whole period. Finally, the basic reproduction numbers were projected to the future by using temperature forecasts for the period 2014–2100. While the mean summer peak values for BT increase from of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}=2.3$\end{document}R0=2.3 to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}=3.4$\end{document}R0=3.4 until 2100 (1.1/100 years), no risk for AHS was estimated even under climate warming assumptions.

Conclusions

Restrictions to trade and movement are always associated with an economic impact during epidemic diseases. To minimize these impacts, risk assessments based on the vector-free period or the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$\mathcal {R}_{0}$\end{document}R0 can essentially support veterinary authorities to improve protection and control measurements.

Bionomics of temperate and tropical Culicoides midges: knowledge gaps and consequences for transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses

Culicoides midges are abundant hematophagous flies that vector arboviruses of veterinary and medical importance. Dramatic changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-borne arboviruses have occurred since 1998, including the emergence of exotic viruses in northern temperate regions, increases in global disease incidence, and enhanced virus diversity in tropical zones. Drivers may include changes in climate, land use, trade, and animal husbandry. New Culicoides species and new wild reservoir hosts have been implicated in transmission, highlighting the dynamic nature of pathogen-vector-host interactions. Focusing on potential vector species worldwide and key elements of vectorial capacity, we review the sensitivity of Culicoides life cycles to abiotic and biotic factors. We consider implications for designing control measures and understanding impacts of environmental change in different ecological contexts. Critical geographical, biological, and taxonomic knowledge gaps are prioritized. Recent developments in genomics and mathematical modeling may enhance ecological understanding of these complex arbovirus systems.

Controlling malaria using livestock-based interventions: a one health approach

Where malaria is transmitted by zoophilic vectors, two types of malaria control strategies have been proposed based on animals: using livestock to divert vector biting from people (zooprophylaxis) or as baits to attract vectors to insecticide sources (insecticide-treated livestock). Opposing findings have been obtained on malaria zooprophylaxis, and despite the success of an insecticide-treated livestock trial in Pakistan, where malaria vectors are highly zoophilic, its effectiveness is yet to be formally tested in Africa where vectors are more anthropophilic. This study aims to clarify the different effects of livestock on malaria and to understand under what circumstances livestock-based interventions could play a role in malaria control programmes. This was explored by developing a mathematical model and combining it with data from Pakistan and Ethiopia. Consistent with previous work, a zooprophylactic effect of untreated livestock is predicted in two situations: if vector population density does not increase with livestock introduction, or if livestock numbers and availability to vectors are sufficiently high such that the increase in vector density is counteracted by the diversion of bites from humans to animals. Although, as expected, insecticide-treatment of livestock is predicted to be more beneficial in settings with highly zoophilic vectors, like South Asia, we find that the intervention could also considerably decrease malaria transmission in regions with more anthropophilic vectors, like Anopheles arabiensis in Africa, under specific circumstances: high treatment coverage of the livestock population, using a product with stronger or longer lasting insecticidal effect than in the Pakistan trial, and with small (ideally null) repellency effect, or if increasing the attractiveness of treated livestock to malaria vectors. The results suggest these are the most appropriate conditions for field testing insecticide-treated livestock in an Africa region with moderately zoophilic vectors, where this intervention could contribute to the integrated control of malaria and livestock diseases.

Can Horton hear the whos? The importance of scale in mosquito-borne disease

The epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens is determined by mechanisms and interactions at different scales of biological organization, from individual-level cellular processes to community interactions between species and with the environment. Most research, however, focuses on one scale or level with little integration between scales or levels within scales. Understanding the interactions between levels and how they influence our perception of vector-borne pathogens is critical. Here two examples of biological scales (pathogen transmission and mosquito mortality) are presented to illustrate some of the issues of scale and to explore how processes on different levels may interact to influence mosquito-borne pathogen transmission cycles. Individual variation in survival, vector competence, and other traits affect population abundance, transmission potential, and community structure. Community structure affects interactions between individuals such as competition and predation, and thus influences the individual-level dynamics and transmission potential. Modeling is a valuable tool to assess interactions between scales and how processes at different levels can affect transmission dynamics. We expand an existing model to illustrate the types of studies needed, showing that individual-level variation in viral dose acquired or needed for infection can influence the number of infectious vectors. It is critical that interactions within and among biological scales and levels of biological organization are understood for greater understanding of pathogen transmission with the ultimate goal of improving control of vector-borne pathogens.

Molecular methods for arthropod bloodmeal identification and applications to ecological and vector-borne disease studies

DNA-based methods have greatly enhanced the sensitivity and specificity of hematophagous arthropod bloodmeal identification. A variety of methods have been applied to study the blood-feeding behaviour of mosquitoes, ticks, black flies and other blood-feeding arthropods as it relates to host-parasite interactions and pathogen transmission. Overviews of the molecular techniques used for bloodmeal identification, their advantages, disadvantages and applications are presented for DNA sequencing, group-specific polymerase chain reaction primers, restriction fragment length polymorphism, real-time polymerase chain reaction, heteroduplex analysis, reverse line-blot hybridization and DNA profiling. Technical challenges to bloodmeal identification including digestion and analysis of mixed bloodmeals are discussed. Analysis of bloodmeal identification results remains a challenge to the field, particularly with regard to incorporation of vertebrate census and ecology data. Future research directions for molecular analysis of arthropod bloodmeals are proposed.

Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain

Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.

Two-host, two-vector basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for bluetongue

Mathematical formulations for the basic reproduction ratio (R₀) exist for several vector-borne diseases. Generally, these are based on models of one-host, one-vector systems or two-host, one-vector systems. For many vector borne diseases, however, two or more vector species often co-occur and, therefore, there is a need for more complex formulations. Here we derive a two-host, two-vector formulation for the R₀ of bluetongue, a vector-borne infection of ruminants that can have serious economic consequences; since 1998 for example, it has led to the deaths of well over 1 million sheep in Europe alone. We illustrate our results by considering the situation in South Africa, where there are two major hosts (sheep, cattle) and two vector species with differing ecologies and competencies as vectors, for which good data exist. We investigate the effects on R₀ of differences in vector abundance, vector competence and vector host preference between vector species. Our results indicate that R₀ can be underestimated if we assume that there is only one vector transmitting the infection (when there are in fact two or more) and/or vector host preferences are overlooked (unless the preferred host is less beneficial or more abundant). The two-host, one-vector formula provides a good approximation when the level of cross-infection between vector species is very small. As this approaches the level of intraspecies infection, a combination of the two-host, one-vector R₀ for each vector species becomes a better estimate. Otherwise, particularly when the level of cross-infection is high, the two-host, two-vector formula is required for accurate estimation of R₀. Our results are equally relevant to Europe, where at least two vector species, which co-occur in parts of the south, have been implicated in the recent epizootic of bluetongue.

Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waning immunity

We derive and analyse a deterministic model for the transmission of malaria disease with mass action form of infection. Firstly, we calculate the basic reproduction number, R(0), and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The system is found to exhibit backward bifurcation. The implication of this occurrence is that the classical epidemiological requirement for effective eradication of malaria, R(0)<1, is no longer sufficient, even though necessary. Secondly, by using optimal control theory we derive the conditions under which it is optimal to eradicate the disease and examine the impact of a possible combined vaccination and treatment strategy on the disease transmission. When eradication is impossible, we derive the necessary conditions for optimal control of the disease using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The results obtained from the numerical simulations of the model show that a possible vaccination combined with effective treatment regime would reduce the spread of the disease appreciably.

Transmission and control of African horse sickness in The Netherlands: a model analysis

African horse sickness (AHS) is an equine viral disease that is spread by Culicoides spp. Since the closely related disease bluetongue established itself in The Netherlands in 2006, AHS is considered a potential threat for the Dutch horse population. A vector-host model that incorporates the current knowledge of the infection biology is used to explore the effect of different parameters on whether and how the disease will spread, and to assess the effect of control measures. The time of introduction is an important determinant whether and how the disease will spread, depending on temperature and vector season. Given an introduction in the most favourable and constant circumstances, our results identify the vector-to-host ratio as the most important factor, because of its high variability over the country. Furthermore, a higher temperature accelerates the epidemic, while a higher horse density increases the extent of the epidemic. Due to the short infectious period in horses, the obvious clinical signs and the presence of non-susceptible hosts, AHS is expected to invade and spread less easily than bluetongue. Moreover, detection is presumed to be earlier, which allows control measures to be targeted towards elimination of infection sources. We argue that recommended control measures are euthanasia of infected horses with severe clinical signs and vector control in infected herds, protecting horses from midge bites in neighbouring herds, and (prioritized) vaccination of herds farther away, provided that transport regulations are strictly applied. The largest lack of knowledge is the competence and host preference of the different Culicoides species present in temperate regions.

Sheep movement networks and the transmission of infectious diseases

Background and Methodology

Various approaches have been used to investigate how properties of farm contact networks impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. The potential for transmission of an infection through a contact network can be evaluated in terms of the basic reproduction number, R₀. The magnitude of R₀ is related to the mean contact rate of a host, in this case a farm, and is further influenced by heterogeneities in contact rates of individual hosts. The latter can be evaluated as the second order moments of the contact matrix (variances in contact rates, and co-variance between contacts to and from individual hosts). Here we calculate these quantities for the farms in a country-wide livestock network: >15,000 Scottish sheep farms in each of 4 years from July 2003 to June 2007. The analysis is relevant to endemic and chronic infections with prolonged periods of infectivity of affected animals, and uses different weightings of contacts to address disease scenarios of low, intermediate and high animal-level prevalence.

Principal Findings and Conclusions

Analysis of networks of Scottish farms via sheep movements from July 2003 to June 2007 suggests that heterogeneities in movement patterns (variances and covariances of rates of movement on and off the farms) make a substantial contribution to the potential for the transmission of infectious diseases, quantified as R₀, within the farm population. A small percentage of farms (<20%) contribute the bulk of the transmission potential (>80%) and these farms could be efficiently targeted by interventions aimed at reducing spread of diseases via animal movement.

The Effect of Multiple Vectors on Arbovirus Transmission

Many mosquito-borne arboviruses have more than one competent vector. These vectors may or may not overlap in space and time, and may interact differently with vertebrate hosts. The presence of multiple vectors for a particular virus at one location over time will influence the epidemiology of the system, and could be important in the design of intervention strategies to protect particular hosts. A simulation model previously developed for West Nile and St. Louis encephalitis viruses and Culex nigripalpus was expanded to consider two vector species. These vectors differed in their abundance through the year, but were otherwise similar. The model was used to examine the consequences of different combinations of abundance patterns on the transmission dynamics of the virus. The abundance pattern based on Cx. nigripalpus dominated the system and was a key factor in generating epidemics in the wild bird population. The presence of two vectors often resulted in multiple epidemic peaks of transmission. A species which was active in the winter could enable virus persistence until another vector became active in the spring, summer, or fall. The day the virus was introduced into the system was critical in determining how many epidemic peaks were observed and when the first peak occurred. The number of epidemic peaks influenced the overall proportion of birds infected. The implications of these results for assessing the relative importance of different vector species are discussed.

Mapping the basic reproduction number (R₀) for vector-borne diseases: a case study on bluetongue virus

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

Estimating the temporal and spatial risk of bluetongue related to the incursion of infected vectors into Switzerland

Background

The design of veterinary and public health surveillance systems has been improved by the ability to combine Geographical Information Systems (GIS), mathematical models and up to date epidemiological knowledge. In Switzerland, an early warning system was developed for detecting the incursion of the bluetongue disease virus (BT) and to monitor the frequency of its vectors. Based on data generated by this surveillance system, GIS and transmission models were used in order to determine suitable seasonal vector habitat locations and risk periods for a larger and more targeted surveillance program.

Results

Combined thematic maps of temperature, humidity and altitude were created to visualize the association with Culicoides vector habitat locations. Additional monthly maps of estimated basic reproduction number transmission rates (R₀) were created in order to highlight areas of Switzerland prone to higher BT outbreaks in relation to both vector activity and transmission levels. The maps revealed several foci of higher risk areas, especially in northern parts of Switzerland, suitable for both vector presence and vector activity for 2006.

Results showed a variation of R₀ values comparing 2005 and 2006 yet suggested that Switzerland was at risk of an outbreak of BT, especially if the incursion arrived in a suitable vector activity period. Since the time of conducting these analyses, this suitability has proved to be the case with the recent outbreaks of BT in northern Switzerland.

Conclusion

Our results stress the importance of environmental factors and their effect on the dynamics of a vector-borne disease. In this case, results of this model were used as input parameters for creating a national targeted surveillance program tailored to both the spatial and the temporal aspect of the disease and its vectors. In this manner, financial and logistic resources can be used in an optimal way through seasonally and geographically adjusted surveillance efforts. This model can serve as a tool for other vector-borne diseases including human zoonotic vectors which are likely to spread into Europe.

Rates of bluetongue virus transmission between Culicoides sonorensis and sheep

Two experiments were undertaken to estimate the transmission rates of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 1 between a biting midge vector, Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth & Jones) (Ceratopogonidae), and a natural host, sheep. In an experiment to measure the transmission rate from vector to host (V-->H), six batches of one, five and 20 intrathoracically infected midges were fed on a total of 18 bluetongue (BT)-naïve sheep. The sheep were then monitored for 21 days for clinical signs of BT, viraemia and antibody response. All sheep fed on by five or 20 midges and five of six sheep fed on by just one midge showed signs of BT, were viraemic and developed antibody. The sixth sheep fed on by a single infected midge did not show signs of BT or have detectable viraemia; it did, however, develop a weak antibody response. A bite from a single infected midge is therefore able to transmit BTV to naïve sheep with 80-100% efficiency. Sheep fed upon by larger numbers of infected midges took less time to reach maximum viraemia and developed stronger antibody responses. Sheep exposed to greater amounts of BTV in feeding midges developed a higher level of viraemia and stronger antibody responses. In a second experiment to measure the transmission rate from host to vector (H-->V), batches of up to 500 uninfected female C. sonorensis fed every 1-2 days on two experimentally infected sheep during the course of infection. Of 3929 engorged midges that were individually titrated after surviving the extrinsic incubation period, only 23 (0.6%) were infected with BTV. Viraemia in the sheep extended for up to 19 days post-inoculation. No infected midges, however, were detected from 14 days post-infection.

Ecological correlates of bluetongue virus in Spain: predicted spatial occurrence and its relationship with the observed abundance of the potential Culicoides spp. vector

Using data from bluetongue (BT) outbreaks caused by viral serotype 4 (BTV-4) in Spain during 2004-2005, a predictive model for BTV-4 occurrence in peninsular Spain was developed. An autologistic regression model was employed to estimate the relationships between BTV-4 presence and bioclimatic-related and host-availability-related variables. In addition, the observed abundances of the main potential Culicoides vectors during 2004-2005, namely Culicoides imicola, Culicoides obsoletus group, and species of the Culicoides pulicaris group, were compared between BTV-4 presence/absence areas predicted by the model. BTV-4 occurrence was mainly explained by bioclimatic variables, although a consideration of host-availability variables led to improved fit of the model. The area of BTV-4 presence predicted by the model largely resembled the core distribution area of C. imicola, and this species was the most abundant Culicoides spp. in predicted BTV-4 presence areas. The results suggest that the spatial expansion of BTV-4 took place only as far as those areas in which C. imicola populations efficiently transmitted the virus.

Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R₀, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R₀ for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R₀ were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R₀. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate.

Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology

Seasonal change in the incidence of infectious diseases is a common phenomenon in both temperate and tropical climates. However, the mechanisms responsible for seasonal disease incidence, and the epidemiological consequences of seasonality, are poorly understood with rare exception. Standard epidemiological theory and concepts such as the basic reproductive number R0 no longer apply, and the implications for interventions that themselves may be periodic, such as pulse vaccination, have not been formally examined. This paper examines the causes and consequences of seasonality, and in so doing derives several new results concerning vaccination strategy and the interpretation of disease outbreak data. It begins with a brief review of published scientific studies in support of different causes of seasonality in infectious diseases of humans, identifying four principal mechanisms and their association with different routes of transmission. It then describes the consequences of seasonality for R0, disease outbreaks, endemic dynamics and persistence. Finally, a mathematical analysis of routine and pulse vaccination programmes for seasonal infections is presented. The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work.

Modeling and biological control of mosquitoes

Models can be useful at many different levels when considering complex issues such as biological control of mosquitoes. At an early stage, exploratory models are valuable in exploring the characteristics of an ideal biological control agent and for guidance in data collection. When more data are available, models can be used to explore alternative control strategies and the likelihood of success. There are few modeling studies that explicitly consider biological control in mosquitoes; however, there have been many theoretical studies of biological control in other insect systems and of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases in general. Examples are used here to illustrate important aspects of designing, using and interpreting models. The stability properties of a model are valuable in assessing the potential of a biological control agent, but may not be relevant to a mosquito population with frequent environmental perturbations. The time scale and goal of proposed control strategies are important considerations when analyzing a model. The underlying biology of the mosquito host and the biological control agent must be carefully considered when deciding what to include in a model. Factors such as density dependent population growth in the host, the searching efficiency and aggregation of a natural enemy, and the resource base of both have been shown to influence the stability and dynamics of the interaction. Including existing mosquito control practices into a model is useful if biological control is proposed for locations with current insecticidal control. The development of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies can be enhanced using modeling techniques, as a wide variety of options can be simulated and examined. Models can also be valuable in comparing alternate routes of disease transmission and to investigate the level of control needed to reduce transmission.

Zooprophylaxis or zoopotentiation: the outcome of introducing animals on vector transmission is highly dependent on the mosquito mortality while searching

Background

Zooprophylaxis, the diversion of disease carrying insects from humans to animals, may reduce transmission of diseases such as malaria. However, as the number of animals increases, improved availability of blood meals may increase mosquito survival, thereby countering the impact of diverting feeds.

Methods

Computer simulation was used to examine the effects of animals on the transmission of human diseases by mosquitoes. Three scenarios were modelled: (1) endemic transmission, where the animals cannot be infected, eg. malaria; (2) epidemic transmission, where the animals cannot be infected but humans remain susceptible, e.g. malaria; (3) epidemic disease, where both humans and animals can be infected, but develop sterile immunity, eg. Japanese encephalitis B. For each, the passive impact of animals as well as the use of animals as bait to attract mosquitoes to insecticide was examined. The computer programmes are available from the author. A teaching model accompanies this article.

Results

For endemic and epidemic malaria with significant searching-associated vector mortality, changing animal numbers and accessibility had little impact. Changing the accessibility of the humans had a much greater effect. For diseases with an animal amplification cycle, the most critical factor was the proximity of the animals to the mosquito breeding sites.

Conclusion

Estimates of searching-associated vector mortality are essential before the effects of changing animal husbandry practices can be predicted. With realistic values of searching-associated vector mortality rates, zooprophylaxis may be ineffective. However, use of animals as bait to attract mosquitoes to insecticide is predicted to be a promising strategy.

A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious disease

We propose a new threshold quantity for the analysis of the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The quantity is similar in concept to the familiar basic reproduction ratio, R0, but it singles out particular host types instead of providing a criterion that is uniform for all host types. Using this methodology we are able to identify the long-term effects of disease-control strategies for particular subgroups of the population, to estimate the level of control necessary when targeting control effort at a subset of host types, and to identify host types that constitute a reservoir of infection. These insights cannot be obtained by using R0 alone.

Simulation studies of St. Louis encephalitis virus in south Florida

Two simulation models were used to investigate the epidemiology of St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEv) in south Florida, one including sentinel hosts (chickens) and amplification hosts (wild birds), while the other one included age structure in the amplification host population. The overall population size of the vector, Culex nigripalpus, was a major factor in the likelihood of epizootics for both models, but the seasonal dynamics of the vector alone did not explain variation in transmission. Interactions between seasonal factors in the mosquito and reproduction in the wild amplification avian hosts appeared to be important in the likelihood of epizootics. Biased feeding between sentinel and amplification hosts affected the time course of virus prevalence and may have implications for the interpretation of sentinel data. The time of virus introduction strongly affected the timing of outbreaks but did not affect the likelihood of epizootics. In most cases, the outbreak occurred immediately after virus introduction; however, in some cases the outbreak was delayed until the mosquito population increased. This has implications for the timing of control strategies directed against mosquito populations.

Influence of nonsystemic transmission on the epidemiology of insect borne arboviruses: a case study of vesicular stomatitis epidemiology in the western United States

Nonsystemic transmission, where a pathogen is transmitted between infected and uninfected vectors without the vertebrate host becoming viremic, may provide an explanation for transmission in systems where the vertebrate hosts have been difficult to identify. This transmission pathway had been previously demonstrated for tick-borne viruses and bacteria, but the recent demonstration for Simulium and vesicular stomatitis virus is the first for a blood-feeding insect. The epidemiology of vesicular stomatitis viruses has been difficult to understand, and nonsystemic transmission may be important. We use mathematical formulations of the basic reproduction number, R(0), to compare systemic and nonsystemic transmission. The absence of a latent period before host infectiousness in nonsystemic transmission may allow a more rapid increase in prevalence in the biting flies early in the development of a new outbreak. Aggregation of flies between hosts and at favored feeding sites on hosts will be important, but further data on nonsystemic transmission as a function of space and time are required to fully assess this pathway. The data needed to compare the two pathways and their relative roles in virus epidemiology are discussed.

Population Biology of Multihost Pathogens

The majority of pathogens, including many of medical and veterinary importance, can infect more than one species of host. Population biology has yet to explain why perceived evolutionary advantages of pathogen specialization are, in practice, outweighed by those of generalization. Factors that predispose pathogens to generalism include high levels of genetic diversity and abundant opportunities for cross-species transmission, and the taxonomic distributions of generalists and specialists appear to reflect these factors. Generalism also has consequences for the evolution of virulence and for pathogen epidemiology, making both much less predictable. The evolutionary advantages and disadvantages of generalism are so finely balanced that even closely related pathogens can have very different host range sizes.

African horse sickness epidemiology: vector competence of south african Culicoides species for virus serotypes 3, 5 and 8

The oral susceptibilities of 17 Culicoides species to infection with African horse sickness virus (AHSV) serotypes 3, 5 and 8 were determined by feeding field-collected midges on AHSV infected horse blood. The mean titres of virus in the bloodmeals for the three serotypes of AHSV were between 5.7 and 6.5 log10 TCID50/ml. Virus was detected, after 10 days incubation at 23.5 degrees C, in the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) that had fed on blood containing AHSV 5 (8.5%) and 8 (26.8%), and in the Culicoides bolitinos Meiswinkel that had fed on AHSV 3 (3.8%), 5 (20.6%) and 8 (1.7%). Although 44.4% of the C. imicola were shown to have ingested AHSV 3 immediately after feeding, no virus was detected in 96 C. imicola after incubation. The relatively high titres of virus recorded in individual midges of both species after 10 days incubation suggested a fully disseminated infection. Previously, C. imicola was considered to be the only field vector of AHSV in Africa. Identifying C. bolitinos as a potential vector for AHSV is an important finding, which if proven will have a significant impact on our understanding of the epidemiology of AHS. No AHSVs could be detected in the other 15 species of Culicoides assayed, which suggests that some of the southern African Culicoides species are refractory to AHSV infection. However, further work with larger numbers of each species will be necessary to confirm this observation.

Ticks are not Insects: Consequences of Contrasting Vector Biology for Transmission Potential

Quantitative analyses of vector-borne parasite systems are dominated by insect systems. In attempts to formulate general statements concerning vectors and their indirectly transmitted parasites, ticks are usually ignored or they are implicitly or explicitly assumed to obey the same rules as insects. Here, Sarah Randolph shows that contrasting biological attributes of these two different arthropod classes (ticks and insects) directly affect their performance as vectors. The equations for estimating their respective potential to transmit parasites differ in important respects, as does the relative impact of each factor on these estimates. These conclusions direct attention towards the empirical field data most appropriate for quantifying the spatially and temporally variable risk of infection from these contrasting vector-borne parasite systems.