Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987-2016)

Haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) is an economically important disease affecting cattle and buffaloes and the livelihoods of small-holder farmers that depend upon them. The disease is caused by Gram-negative bacterium, Pasteurella multocida, and is considered to be endemic in many states of India with more than 25,000 outbreaks in the past three decades. Currently, there is no national policy for control of HS in India. In this study, we analysed thirty year (1987-2016) monthly data on HS outbreaks using different statistical and mathematical methods to identify spatial variability and temporal patterns (seasonality, periodicity). There was zonal variation in the trend and seasonality of HS outbreaks. Overall, South zone reported maximum proportion of the outbreaks (70.2%), followed by East zone (7.2%), Central zone (6.4%), North zone (5.6%), West zone (5.5%) and North-East zone (4.9%). Annual state level analysis indicated that the reporting of HS outbreaks started at different years independently and there was no apparent transmission between the states. The results of the current study are useful for the policy makers to design national control programme on HS in India and implement state specific strategies. Further, our study and strategies could aid in implementation of similar approaches in HS endemic tropical countries around the world.

Producing context specific land cover and land use maps of human-modified tropical forest landscapes for infectious disease applications

Satellite-based land cover mapping plays an important role in understanding changes in ecosystems and biodiversity. There are global land cover products available, however for region specific studies of drivers of infectious disease patterns, these can lack the spatial and thematic detail or accuracy required to capture key ecological processes. To overcome this, we produced our own Landsat derived 30 m maps for three districts in India's Western Ghats (Wayanad, Shivamogga and Sindhudurg). The maps locate natural vegetation types, plantation types, agricultural areas, water bodies and settlements in the landscape, all relevant to functional resource use of species involved in infectious disease dynamics. The maps represent the mode of 50 classification iterations and include a spatial measure of class stability derived from these iterations. Overall accuracies for Wayanad, Shivamogga and Sindhudurg are 94.7 % (SE 1.2 %), 88.9 % (SE 1.2 %) and 88.8 % (SE 2 %) respectively. Class classification stability was high across all three districts and the individual classes that matter for defining key interfaces between human habitation, forests, crop, and plantation cultivation, were generally well separated. A comparison with the 300 m global ESA CCI land cover map highlights lower ESA CCI class accuracies and the importance of increased spatial resolution when dealing with complex landscape mosaics. A comparison with the 30 m Global Forest Change product reveals an accurate mapping of forest loss and different dynamics between districts (i.e., Forests lost to Built-up versus Forests lost to Plantations), demonstrating an interesting complementarity between our maps and the % tree cover Global Forest Change product. When studying infectious disease responses to land use change in tropical forest ecosystems, we recommend using bespoke land cover/use classifications reflecting functional resource use by relevant vectors, reservoirs, and people. Alternatively, global products should be carefully validated with ground reference points representing locally relevant habitats.

'It doesn't happen how you think, it is very complex!' Reconciling stakeholder priorities, evidence, and processes for zoonoses prioritisation in India

Background

Why do some zoonotic diseases receive priority from health policy decision-makers and planners whereas others receive little attention? By leveraging Shiffman and Smith's political prioritisation framework, our paper advances a political economy of disease prioritisation focusing on four key components: the strength of the actors involved in the prioritisation, the power of the ideas they use to portray the issue, the political contexts in which they operate, and the characteristics of the issue itself (e.g., overall burdens, severity, cost-effective interventions). These components afford a nuanced characterisation of how zoonotic diseases are prioritised for intervention and highlight the associated knowledge gaps affecting prioritisation outcomes. We apply this framework to the case of zoonoses management in India, specifically to identify the factors that shape disease prioritisation decision-making and outcomes.

Methods

We conducted 26 semi-structured interviews with national, state and district level health policymakers, disease managers and technical experts involved in disease surveillance and control in India.

Results

Our results show pluralistic interpretation of risks, exemplified by a disconnect between state and district level actors on priority diseases. The main factors identified as shaping prioritisation outcomes were related to the nature of the zoonoses problem (the complexity of the zoonotic disease, insufficient awareness and lack of evidence on disease burdens and impacts) as well as political, social, cultural and institutional environments (isolated departmental priorities, limited institutional authority, opaque funding mechanisms), and challenges in organisation leadership for cross-sectoral engagement.

Conclusion

The findings highlight a compartmentalised regulatory system for zoonoses where political, social, cultural, and media factors can influence disease management and prioritisation. A major policy window is the institutionalisation of One Health to increase the political priority for strengthening cross-sectoral engagement to address several challenges, including the creation of effective institutions to reconcile stakeholder priorities and prioritisation processes.

The use of path analysis to determine effects of environmental factors on the adult seasonality of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector species in Spain

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the main vectors of livestock diseases such as bluetongue (BT) which mainly affect sheep and cattle. In Spain, bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by several Culicoides taxa, including Culicoides imicola, Obsoletus complex, Culicoides newsteadi and Culicoides pulicaris that vary in seasonality and distribution, affecting the distribution and dynamics of BT outbreaks. Path analysis is useful for separating direct and indirect, biotic and abiotic determinants of species' population performance and is ideal for understanding the sensitivity of adult Culicoides dynamics to multiple environmental drivers. Start, end of season and length of overwintering of adult Culicoides were analysed across 329 sites in Spain sampled from 2005 to 2010 during the National Entomosurveillance Program for BTV with path analysis, to determine the direct and indirect effects of land use, climate and host factor variables. Culicoides taxa had species-specific responses to environmental variables. While the seasonality of adult C. imicola was strongly affected by topography, temperature, cover of agro-forestry and sclerophyllous vegetation, rainfall, livestock density, photoperiod in autumn and the abundance of Culicoides females, Obsoletus complex species seasonality was affected by land-use variables such as cover of natural grassland and broad-leaved forest. Culicoides female abundance was the most explanatory variable for the seasonality of C. newsteadi, while C. pulicaris showed that temperature during winter and the photoperiod in November had a strong effect on the start of the season and the length of overwinter period of this species. These results indicate that the seasonal vector-free period (SVFP) in Spain will vary between competent vector taxa and geographic locations, dependent on the different responses of each taxa to environmental conditions.

Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. Neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD), in multiple habitat types. The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types but currently more research is needed to evaluate this relationship. In light of these results, we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that could inform effective interventions and control measures.

The role of social vulnerability in improving interventions for neglected zoonotic diseases: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

Forest-based communities manage many risks to health and socio-economic welfare including the increasing threat of emerging zoonoses that are expected to disproportionately affect poor and marginalised groups, and further impair their precarious livelihoods, particularly in Low-and-Middle Income (LMIC) settings. Yet, there is a relative dearth of empirical research on the vulnerability and adaptation pathways of poor and marginalised groups facing emerging zoonoses. Drawing on a survey of 229 households and a series of key-informant interviews in the Western Ghats, we examine the factors affecting vulnerability of smallholder and tribal households to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), an often-fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in south India. Specifically, we investigate how different socio-demographic and institutional factors interact to shape KFD vulnerability and the strategies employed by households to adapt to disease consequences. Although surveyed households generally perceived KFD as an important health issue in the study region, there was variability in concern about contracting the disease. Overall results showed that poor access to land (AOR = 0.373, 95% CI: 0.152-0.916), being at or below the poverty line (AOR = 0.253, 95% CI: 0.094-0.685) and being headed by an older person (AOR = 1.038, 95% CI: 1.006-1.071) were all significant determinants of perceived KFD vulnerability. Furthermore, KFD vulnerability is also modulated by important extra-household factors including proximity to private hospitals (AOR = 3.281, 95% CI: 1.220-8.820), main roads (AOR = 2.144, 95% CI: 1.215-3.783) and study location (AOR = 0.226, 95% CI: 0.690-0.743). Our findings highlight how homogenous characterisation of smallholder and tribal communities and the 'techno-oriented' approach of existing interventions may further marginalise the most vulnerable and exacerbate existing inequalities. These findings are important for designing context-specific and appropriate health interventions (including the prioritisation of awareness raising, knowledge networks, livelihood diversification) that enhances the resilience of at-risk social groups within the KFD context. More broadly, our findings highlight how a focus on social vulnerability can help national and international health planners improve health interventions and prioritise among diseases with respect to neglected endemic zoonoses.

Co-production of knowledge as part of a OneHealth approach to better control zoonotic diseases

There is increased global and national attention on the need for effective strategies to control zoonotic diseases. Quick, effective action is, however, hampered by poor evidence-bases and limited coordination between stakeholders from relevant sectors such as public and animal health, wildlife and forestry sectors at different scales, who may not usually work together. The OneHealth approach recognises the value of cross-sectoral evaluation of human, animal and environmental health questions in an integrated, holistic and transdisciplinary manner to reduce disease impacts and/or mitigate risks. Co-production of knowledge is also widely advocated to improve the quality and acceptability of decision-making across sectors and may be particularly important when it comes to zoonoses. This paper brings together OneHealth and knowledge co-production and reflects on lessons learned for future OneHealth co-production processes by describing a process implemented to understand spill-over and identify disease control and mitigation strategies for a zoonotic disease in Southern India (Kyasanur Forest Disease). The co-production process aimed to develop a joint decision-support tool with stakeholders, and we complemented our approach with a simple retrospective theory of change on researcher expectations of the system-level outcomes of the co-production process. Our results highlight that while co-production in OneHealth is a difficult and resource intensive process, requiring regular iterative adjustments and flexibility, the beneficial outcomes justify its adoption. A key future aim should be to improve and evaluate the degree of inter-sectoral collaboration required to achieve the aims of OneHealth. We conclude by providing guidelines based on our experience to help funders and decision-makers support future co-production processes.

Phenotypic plasticity as a cause and consequence of population dynamics

Predicting complex species-environment interactions is crucial for guiding conservation and mitigation strategies in a dynamically changing world. Phenotypic plasticity is a mechanism of trait variation that determines how individuals and populations adapt to changing and novel environments. For individuals, the effects of phenotypic plasticity can be quantified by measuring environment-trait relationships, but it is often difficult to predict how phenotypic plasticity affects populations. The assumption that environment-trait relationships validated for individuals indicate how populations respond to environmental change is commonly made without sufficient justification. Here we derive a novel general mathematical framework linking trait variation due to phenotypic plasticity to population dynamics. Applying the framework to the classical example of Nicholson's blowflies, we show how seemingly sensible predictions made from environment-trait relationships do not generalise to population responses. As a consequence, trait-based analyses that do not incorporate population feedbacks risk mischaracterising the effect of environmental change on populations.

Operationalising the "One Health" approach in India: facilitators of and barriers to effective cross-sector convergence for zoonoses prevention and control

BACKGROUND

There is a strong policy impetus for the One Health cross-sectoral approach to address the complex challenge of zoonotic diseases, particularly in low/lower middle income countries (LMICs). Yet the implementation of this approach in LMIC contexts such as India has proven challenging, due partly to the relatively limited practical guidance and understanding on how to foster and sustain cross-sector collaborations. This study addresses this gap by exploring the facilitators of and barriers to successful convergence between the human, animal and environmental health sectors in India.

METHODS

A mixed methods study was conducted using a detailed content review of national policy documents and in-depth semi-structured interview data on zoonotic disease management in India. In total, 29 policy documents were reviewed and 15 key informant interviews were undertaken with national and state level policymakers, disease managers and experts operating within the human-animal-environment interface of zoonotic disease control.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest that there is limited policy visibility of zoonotic diseases, although global zoonoses, especially those identified to be of pandemic potential by international organisations (e.g. CDC, WHO and OIE) rather than local, high burden endemic diseases, have high recognition in the existing policy agenda setting. Despite the widespread acknowledgement of the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration, a myriad of factors operated to either constrain or facilitate the success of cross-sectoral convergence at different stages (i.e. information-sharing, undertaking common activities and merging resources and infrastructure) of cross-sectoral action. Importantly, participants identified the lack of supportive policies, conflicting departmental priorities and limited institutional capacities as major barriers that hamper effective cross-sectoral collaboration on zoonotic disease control. Building on existing informal inter-personal relationships and collaboration platforms were suggested by participants as the way forward.

CONCLUSION

Our findings point to the importance of strengthening existing national policy frameworks as a first step for leveraging cross-sectoral capacity for improved disease surveillance and interventions. This requires the contextual adaptation of the One Health approach in a manner that is sensitive to the underlying socio-political, institutional and cultural context that determines and shapes outcomes of cross-sector collaborative arrangements.

A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

Reviewing the ecological evidence base for management of emerging tropical zoonoses: Kyasanur Forest Disease in India as a case study

Zoonoses disproportionately affect tropical communities and are associated with human modification and use of ecosystems. Effective management is hampered by poor ecological understanding of disease transmission and often focuses on human vaccination or treatment. Better ecological understanding of multi-vector and multi-host transmission, social and environmental factors altering human exposure, might enable a broader suite of management options. Options may include "ecological interventions" that target vectors or hosts and require good knowledge of underlying transmission processes, which may be more effective, economical, and long lasting than conventional approaches. New frameworks identify the hierarchical series of barriers that a pathogen needs to overcome before human spillover occurs and demonstrate how ecological interventions may strengthen these barriers and complement human-focused disease control. We extend these frameworks for vector-borne zoonoses, focusing on Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFDV), a tick-borne, neglected zoonosis affecting poor forest communities in India, involving complex communities of tick and host species. We identify the hierarchical barriers to pathogen transmission targeted by existing management. We show that existing interventions mainly focus on human barriers (via personal protection and vaccination) or at barriers relating to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD) vectors (tick control on cattle and at the sites of host (monkey) deaths). We review the validity of existing management guidance for KFD through literature review and interviews with disease managers. Efficacy of interventions was difficult to quantify due to poor empirical understanding of KFDV-vector-host ecology, particularly the role of cattle and monkeys in the disease transmission cycle. Cattle are hypothesised to amplify tick populations. Monkeys may act as sentinels of human infection or are hypothesised to act as amplifying hosts for KFDV, but the spatial scale of risk arising from ticks infected via monkeys versus small mammal reservoirs is unclear. We identified 19 urgent research priorities for refinement of current management strategies or development of ecological interventions targeting vectors and host barriers to prevent disease spillover in the future.

'None of my ancestors ever discussed this disease before!' How disease information shapes adaptive capacity of marginalised rural populations in India

Smallholder farmer and tribal communities are often characterised as marginalised and highly vulnerable to emerging zoonotic diseases due to their relatively poor access to healthcare, worse-off health outcomes, proximity to sources of disease risks, and their social and livelihood organisation. Yet, access to relevant and timely disease information that could strengthen their adaptive capacity remain challenging and poorly characterised in the empirical literature. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the role of disease information in shaping the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmer and tribal groups to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), a tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever. We carried out household surveys (n = 229) and in-depth interviews (n = 25) in two affected districts-Shimoga and Wayanad-in the Western Ghats region. Our findings suggest that, despite the generally limited awareness about KFD, access to disease information improved households' propensity to implement adaptation strategies relative to households that had no access to it. Of the variety of adaptation strategies implemented, vaccination, avoiding forest visits, wearing of protective clothing and footwear, application of dimethyl phthalate (DMP) oil and income diversification were identified by respondents as important adaptive measures during the outbreak seasons. Even so, we identified significant differences between individuals in exposure to disease information and its contribution to substantive adaptive action. Households reported several barriers to implement adaptation strategies including, lack of disease information, low efficacy of existing vaccine, distrust, religio-cultural sentiments, and livelihood concerns. We also found that informal information sharing presented a promising avenue from a health extension perspective albeit with trade-offs with potential distortion of the messages through misinformation and/or reporting bias. Altogether, our findings stress the importance of contextualising disease information and implementing interventions in a participatory way that sufficiently addresses the social determinants of health in order to bolster households' adaptive capacity to KFD and other neglected endemic zoonoses.

Environmental Drivers of Adult Seasonality and Abundance of Biting Midges Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), Bluetongue Vector Species in Spain

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects of environmental factors on adult female seasonality were contrasted. Obsoletus complex species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were the most prevalent across sites, followed by Culicoides newsteadi Austen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Activity of female Obsoletus complex species was longest in sites at low elevation, with warmer spring average temperatures and precipitation, as well as in sites with high abundance of cattle. The length of the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) female adult season was also longest in sites at low elevation with higher coverage of broad-leaved vegetation. Long adult seasons of C. newsteadi were found in sites with warmer autumns and higher precipitation, high abundance of sheep. Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) had longer adult periods in sites with a greater number of accumulated degree days over 10°C during winter. These results demonstrate the eco-climatic and seasonal differences among these four taxa in Spain, which may contribute to determining sites with suitable environmental circumstances for each particular species to inform assessments of the risk of Bluetongue virus outbreaks in this region.

Evolutionary trait-based approaches for predicting future global impacts of plant pathogens in the genus Phytophthora

Plant pathogens are introduced to new geographical regions ever more frequently as global connectivity increases. Predicting the threat they pose to plant health can be difficult without in-depth knowledge of behaviour, distribution and spread. Here, we evaluate the potential for using biological traits and phylogeny to predict global threats from emerging pathogens.We use a species-level trait database and phylogeny for 179 Phytophthora species: oomycete pathogens impacting natural, agricultural, horticultural and forestry settings. We compile host and distribution reports for Phytophthora species across 178 countries and evaluate the power of traits, phylogeny and time since description (reflecting species-level knowledge) to explain and predict their international transport, maximum latitude and host breadth using Bayesian phylogenetic generalised linear mixed models.In the best-performing models, traits, phylogeny and time since description together explained up to 90%, 97% and 87% of variance in number of countries reached, latitudinal limits and host range, respectively. Traits and phylogeny together explained up to 26%, 41% and 34% of variance in the number of countries reached, maximum latitude and host plant families affected, respectively, but time since description had the strongest effect.Root-attacking species were reported in more countries, and on more host plant families than foliar-attacking species. Host generalist pathogens had thicker-walled resting structures (stress-tolerant oospores) and faster growth rates at their optima. Cold-tolerant species are reported in more countries and at higher latitudes, though more accurate interspecific empirical data are needed to confirm this finding. Policy implications. We evaluate the potential of an evolutionary trait-based framework to support horizon-scanning approaches for identifying pathogens with greater potential for global-scale impacts. Potential future threats from Phytophthora include Phytophthora x heterohybrida, P. lactucae, P. glovera, P. x incrassata, P. amnicola and P. aquimorbida, which are recently described, possibly under-reported species, with similar traits and/or phylogenetic proximity to other high-impact species. Priority traits to measure for emerging species may be thermal minima, oospore wall index and growth rate at optimum temperature. Trait-based horizon-scanning approaches would benefit from the development of international and cross-sectoral collaborations to deliver centralised databases incorporating pathogen distributions, traits and phylogeny.

The tree that hides the forest: cryptic diversity and phylogenetic relationships in the Palaearctic vector Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at the European level

Background

Culicoides obsoletus is an abundant and widely distributed Holarctic biting midge species, involved in the transmission of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) to wild and domestic ruminants. Females of this vector species are often reported jointly with two morphologically very close species, C. scoticus and C. montanus, forming the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex. Recently, cryptic diversity within C. obsoletus was reported in geographically distant sites. Clear delineation of species and characterization of genetic variability is mandatory to revise their taxonomic status and assess the vector role of each taxonomic entity. Our objectives were to characterize and map the cryptic diversity within the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex.

Methods

Portion of the cox1 mitochondrial gene of 3763 individuals belonging to the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex was sequenced. Populations from 20 countries along a Palaearctic Mediterranean transect covering Scandinavia to Canary islands (North to South) and Canary islands to Turkey (West to East) were included. Genetic diversity based on cox1 barcoding was supported by 16S rDNA mitochondrial gene sequences and a gene coding for ribosomal 28S rDNA. Species delimitation using a multi-marker methodology was used to revise the current taxonomic scheme of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex.

Results

Our analysis showed the existence of three phylogenetic clades (C. obsoletus clade O2, C. obsoletus clade dark and one not yet named and identified) within C. obsoletus. These analyses also revealed two intra-specific clades within C. scoticus and raised questions about the taxonomic status of C. montanus.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, our study provides the first genetic characterization of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex on a large geographical scale and allows a revision of the current taxonomic classification for an important group of vector species of livestock viruses in the Palaearctic region.

Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India's forest landscapes

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the global "One Health" initiative, predictive models for tropical zoonotic diseases often focus on narrow ranges of risk factors and are rarely scaled to intervention programs and ecosystem use. This study uses a participatory, co-production approach to address this disconnect between science, policy and implementation, by developing more informative disease models for a fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), that is spreading across degraded forest ecosystems in India. We integrated knowledge across disciplines to identify key risk factors and needs with actors and beneficiaries across the relevant policy sectors, to understand disease patterns and develop decision support tools. Human case locations (2014-2018) and spatial machine learning quantified the relative role of risk factors, including forest cover and loss, host densities and public health access, in driving landscape-scale disease patterns in a long-affected district (Shivamogga, Karnataka State). Models combining forest metrics, livestock densities and elevation accurately predicted spatial patterns in human KFD cases (2014-2018). Consistent with suggestions that KFD is an "ecotonal" disease, landscapes at higher risk for human KFD contained diverse forest-plantation mosaics with high coverage of moist evergreen forest and plantation, high indigenous cattle density, and low coverage of dry deciduous forest. Models predicted new hotspots of outbreaks in 2019, indicating their value for spatial targeting of intervention. Co-production was vital for: gathering outbreak data that reflected locations of exposure in the landscape; better understanding contextual socio-ecological risk factors; and tailoring the spatial grain and outputs to the scale of forest use, and public health interventions. We argue this inter-disciplinary approach to risk prediction is applicable across zoonotic diseases in tropical settings.

Lyme Disease Risks in Europe under Multiple Uncertain Drivers of Change

BACKGROUND

Debates over whether climate change could lead to the amplification of Lyme disease (LD) risk in the future have received much attention. Although recent large-scale disease mapping studies project an overall increase in Lyme disease risk as the climate warms, such conclusions are based on climate-driven models in which other drivers of change, such as land-use/cover and host population distribution, are less considered.

OBJECTIVES

The main objectives were to project the likely future ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe under different assumptions about future socioeconomic and climate conditions and to explore similarity and uncertainty in the projected risks.

METHODS

An integrative, spatially explicit modeling study of the ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe was conducted by applying recent advances in process-based modeling of tick-borne diseases, species distribution mapping, and scenarios of land-use/cover change. We drove the model with stakeholder-driven, integrated scenarios of plausible future socioeconomic and climate change [the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) combined with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)].

RESULTS

The model projections suggest that future temperature increases may not always amplify LD risk: Low emissions scenarios (RCP2.6) combined with a sustainability socioeconomic scenario (SSP1) resulted in reduced LD risk. The greatest increase in risk was projected under intermediate (RCP4.5) rather than high-end (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. Climate and land-use change were projected to have different roles in shaping the future regional dynamics of risk, with climate warming being likely to cause risk expansion in northern Europe and conversion of forest to agriculture being likely to limit risk in southern Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Projected regional differences in LD risk resulted from mixed effects of temperature, land use, and host distributions, suggesting region-specific and cross-sectoral foci for LD risk management policy. The integrated model provides an improved explanatory tool for the system mechanisms of LD pathogen transmission and how pathogen transmission could respond to combined socioeconomic and climate changes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4615.

Uncovering mechanisms behind mosquito seasonality by integrating mathematical models and daily empirical population data: Culex pipiens in the UK

BACKGROUND

Many mosquito-borne diseases exhibit substantial seasonality, due to strong links between environmental variables and vector and pathogen life-cycles. Further, a range of density-dependent and density-independent biotic and abiotic processes affect the phenology of mosquito populations, with potentially large knock-on effects for vector dynamics and disease transmission. Whilst it is understood that density-independent and density-dependent processes affect seasonal population levels, it is not clear how these interact temporally to shape the population peaks and troughs. Due to this, the paucity of high-resolution data for validation, and the difficulty of parameterizing density-dependent processes, models of vector dynamics may poorly estimate abundances, which has knock-on effects for our ability predict vector-borne disease outbreaks.

RESULTS

We present a rich dataset describing seasonal abundance patterns of each life stage of Culex pipiens, a widespread vector of West Nile virus, at a field site in southern England in 2015. Abundance of immature stages was measured three times per week, whilst adult traps were run four nights each week. This dataset is integrated with an existing delay-differential equation model predicting Cx. pipiens seasonal abundance to improve understanding of observed seasonal abundance patterns. At our field site, the outcome of our model fitting suggests interspecific predation on mosquito larvae and temperature-dependent larval mortality combine to act as the main sources of population regulation throughout the active season, whilst competition for resources is a relatively small source of larval mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests that density-independent mortality and interspecific predation interact to shape patterns of mosquito seasonal abundance in a permanent aquatic habitat and we propose that competition for resources is likely to be important where periods of high rainfall create transient habitats. Further, we highlight the importance of challenging population abundance models with data from across all life stages of the species of interest if reliable inferences are to be drawn from these models, particularly when considering mosquito control and vector-borne disease transmission.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Mechanistic model for predicting the seasonal abundance of Culicoides biting midges and the impacts of insecticide control

BACKGROUND

Understanding seasonal patterns of abundance of insect vectors is important for optimisation of control strategies of vector-borne diseases. Environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity and photoperiod influence vector abundance, but it is not generally known how these drivers combine to affect seasonal population dynamics.

METHODS

In this paper, we derive and analyse a novel mechanistic stage-structured simulation model for Culicoides biting midges-the principle vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses which cause mortality and morbidity in livestock and impact trade. We model variable life-history traits as functional forms that are dependent on environmental drivers, including air temperature, soil temperature and photoperiod. The model is fitted to Obsoletus group adult suction-trap data sampled daily at five locations throughout the UK for 2008.

RESULTS

The model predicts population dynamics that closely resemble UK field observations, including the characteristic biannual peaks of adult abundance. Using the model, we then investigate the effects of insecticide control, showing that control strategies focussing on the autumn peak of adult midge abundance have the highest impact in terms of population reduction in the autumn and averaged over the year. Conversely, control during the spring peak of adult abundance leads to adverse increases in adult abundance in the autumn peak.

CONCLUSIONS

The mechanisms of the biannual peaks of adult abundance, which are important features of midge seasonality in northern Europe and are key determinants of the risk of establishment and spread of midge-borne diseases, have been hypothesised over for many years. Our model suggests that the peaks correspond to two generations per year (bivoltine) are largely determined by pre-adult development. Furthermore, control strategies should focus on reducing the autumn peak since the immature stages are released from density-dependence regulation. We conclude that more extensive modelling of Culicoides biting midge populations in different geographical contexts will help to optimise control strategies and predictions of disease outbreaks.

Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.

DNA barcoding and surveillance sampling strategies for Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in southern India

Background

Culicoides spp. biting midges transmit bluetongue virus (BTV), the aetiological agent of bluetongue (BT), an economically important disease of ruminants. In southern India, hyperendemic outbreaks of BT exert high cost to subsistence farmers in the region, impacting on sheep production. Effective Culicoides spp. monitoring methods coupled with accurate species identification can accelerate responses for minimising BT outbreaks. Here, we assessed the utility of sampling methods and DNA barcoding for detection and identification of Culicoides spp. in southern India, in order to provide an informed basis for future monitoring of their populations in the region.

Methods

Culicoides spp. collected from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka were used to construct a framework for future morphological identification in surveillance, based on sequence comparison of the DNA barcode region of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene and achieving quality standards defined by the Barcode of Life initiative. Pairwise catches of Culicoides spp. were compared in diversity and abundance between green (570 nm) and ultraviolet (UV) (390 nm) light emitting diode (LED) suction traps at a single site in Chennai, Tamil Nadu over 20 nights of sampling in November 2013.

Results

DNA barcode sequences of Culicoides spp. were mostly congruent both with existing DNA barcode data from other countries and with morphological identification of major vector species. However, sequence differences symptomatic of cryptic species diversity were present in some groups which require further investigation. While the diversity of species collected by the UV LED Center for Disease Control (CDC) trap did not significantly vary from that collected by the green LED CDC trap, the UV CDC significantly outperformed the green LED CDC trap with regard to the number of Culicoides individuals collected.

Conclusions

Morphological identification of the majority of potential vector species of Culicoides spp. samples within southern India appears relatively robust; however, potential cryptic species diversity was present in some groups requiring further investigation. The UV LED CDC trap is recommended for surveillance of Culicoides in southern India.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1722-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Identifying biotic interactions which drive the spatial distribution of a mosquito community

Background

Spatial variation in the risk of many mosquito-borne pathogens is strongly influenced by the distribution of communities of suitable vector mosquitoes. The spatial distributions of such communities have been linked to the abiotic habitat requirements of each constituent mosquito species, but the biotic interactions between mosquitoes and other species are less well understood. Determining which fauna restrict the presence and abundance of key mosquito species in vector communities may identify species which could be employed as natural biological control agents. Whilst biotic interactions have been studied in the laboratory, a lack of appropriate statistical methods has prohibited the identification of key interactions which influence mosquito distributions in the field. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) have recently been developed to identify biotic interactions influencing the distributions of species from empirical data.

Methods

We apply a JSDM to field data on the spatial distribution of mosquitoes in a UK wetland to identify both abiotic factors and biotic interactions driving the composition of the community.

Results

As expected, mosquito larval distributions in this wetland habitat are strongly driven by environmental covariates including water depth, temperature and oxidation-reduction potential. By factoring out these environmental variables, we are able to identify species (ditch shrimp of the genus Palaemonetes and fish) as predators which appear to restrict mosquito distributions.

Conclusions

JSDMs offer vector ecologists a way to identify potentially important biotic interactions influencing the distributions of disease vectors from widely available field data. This information is crucial to understand the likely effects of habitat management for vector control and to identify species with the potential for use in biological control programmes. We provide an R package BayesComm to enable the wider application of these models.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0915-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Two Species with an Unusual Combination of Traits Dominate Responses of British Grasshoppers and Crickets to Environmental Change

There are large variations in the responses of species to the environmental changes of recent decades, heightening interest in whether their traits may explain inter-specific differences in range expansions and contractions. Using a long-term distributional dataset, we calculated range changes of grasshoppers and crickets in Britain between the 1980s and the 2000s and assessed whether their traits (resource use, life history, dispersal ability, geographic location) explain relative performance of different species. Our analysis showed large changes in the distributions of some species, and we found a positive relationship between three traits and range change: ranges tended to increase for habitat generalists, species that oviposit in the vegetation above ground, and for those with a southerly distribution. These findings accord well with the nature of environmental changes over this period (climatic warming; reductions in the diversity and increases in the height of vegetation). However, the trait effects applied mainly to just two species, Conocephalus discolor and Metrioptera roeselii, which had shown the greatest range increases. Once they were omitted from the analysis, trait effects were no longer statistically significant. Previous studies on these two species emphasised wing-length dimorphism as the key to their success, resulting in a high phenotypic plasticity of dispersal and evolutionary-ecological feedback at their expanding range margins. This, combined with our results, suggests that an unusual combination of traits have enabled these two species to undertake extremely rapid responses to recent environmental changes. The fact that our results are dominated by two species only became apparent through cautious testing of the results’ robustness, not through standard statistical checks. We conclude that trait-based analyses may contribute to the assessment of species responses to environmental change and provide insights into underlying mechanisms, but results need to be interpreted with caution and may have limited predictive power.

Bionomics of temperate and tropical Culicoides midges: knowledge gaps and consequences for transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses

Culicoides midges are abundant hematophagous flies that vector arboviruses of veterinary and medical importance. Dramatic changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-borne arboviruses have occurred since 1998, including the emergence of exotic viruses in northern temperate regions, increases in global disease incidence, and enhanced virus diversity in tropical zones. Drivers may include changes in climate, land use, trade, and animal husbandry. New Culicoides species and new wild reservoir hosts have been implicated in transmission, highlighting the dynamic nature of pathogen-vector-host interactions. Focusing on potential vector species worldwide and key elements of vectorial capacity, we review the sensitivity of Culicoides life cycles to abiotic and biotic factors. We consider implications for designing control measures and understanding impacts of environmental change in different ecological contexts. Critical geographical, biological, and taxonomic knowledge gaps are prioritized. Recent developments in genomics and mathematical modeling may enhance ecological understanding of these complex arbovirus systems.

Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks

Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches.

Larval development and emergence sites of farm-associated Culicoides in the United Kingdom

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the biological vectors of internationally important arboviruses of livestock including bluetongue virus (BTV). Information on the habitats used by Culicoides for larval development is valuable for establishing targeted vector control strategies and for improving local scale models of vector abundance. This study combines emergence trap collections of adult Culicoides identified using molecular markers and physiochemical measurements of habitats to investigate larval development sites of Palaearctic Culicoides in South East England. The known range of larval habitats for several Culicoides species is extended and the potential BTV vector species C. obsoletus and C. scoticus are confirmed to co-occur in many larval habitats. The presence of emerging C. obsoletus was favoured by increasing substrate moisture level [odds ratio (OR) 6.94 (2.30; 20.90)] and substrate pH [OR 4.80 (1.66; 13.90)] [bias-corrected Dxy : 0.68; area under the curve (AUC): 0.86] rather than any particular larval habitat type, as expected for a species with relatively wide larval habitat preference. Of the newly emerged sub-genus Avaritia individuals collected, 23% were observed to have a degree of abdominal pigmentation commonly inferred to indicate parity. If consistent across species and locations, this observation represents a potential source of error for age structure analyses of Culicoides populations.

Culicoides biting midges, arboviruses and public health in Europe

The emergence of multiple strains of bluetongue virus (BTV) and the recent discovery of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Europe have highlighted the fact that exotic Culicoides-borne arboviruses from remote geographic areas can enter and spread rapidly in this region. This review considers the potential for this phenomenon to impact on human health in Europe, by examining evidence of the role of Culicoides biting midges in the zoonotic transmission and person-to-person spread of arboviruses worldwide. To date, the only arbovirus identified as being primarily transmitted by Culicoides to and between humans is Oropouche virus (OROV). This member of the genus Orthobunyavirus causes major epidemics of febrile illness in human populations of South and Central America and the Caribbean. We examine factors promoting sustained outbreaks of OROV in Brazil from an entomological perspective and assess aspects of the epidemiology of this arbovirus that are currently poorly understood, but may influence the risk of incursion into Europe. We then review the secondary and rarely reported role of Culicoides in the transmission of high-profile zoonotic infections, while critically reviewing evidence of this phenomenon in endemic transmission and place this in context with the presence of other potential vector groups in Europe. Scenarios for the incursions of Culicoides-borne human-to-human transmitted and zoonotic arboviruses are then discussed, along with control measures that could be employed to reduce their impact. These measures are placed in the context of legislative measures used during current and ongoing outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in Europe, involving both veterinary and public health sectors.

Identifying environmental drivers of insect phenology across space and time: Culicoides in Scotland as a case study

Interpreting spatial patterns in the abundance of species over time is a fundamental cornerstone of ecological research. For many species, this type of analysis is hampered by datasets that contain a large proportion of zeros, and data that are overdispersed and spatially autocorrelated. This is particularly true for insects, for which abundance data can fluctuate from zero to many thousands in the space of weeks. Increasingly, an understanding of the ways in which environmental variation drives spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution, abundance and phenology of insects is required for management of pests and vector-borne diseases. In this study, we combine the use of smoothing techniques and generalised linear mixed models to relate environmental drivers to key phenological patterns of two species of biting midges, Culicoides pulicaris and C. impunctatus, of which C. pulicaris has been implicated in transmission of bluetongue in Europe. In so doing, we demonstrate analytical tools for linking the phenology of species with key environmental drivers, despite using a relatively small dataset containing overdispersed and zero-inflated data. We demonstrate the importance of landcover and climatic variables in determining the seasonal abundance of these two vector species, and highlight the need for more empirical data on the effects of temperature and precipitation on the life history traits of palearctic Culicoides spp. in Europe.

Epidemic potential of an emerging vector borne disease in a marginal environment: Schmallenberg in Scotland

During 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV) presented as a novel disease of cattle and sheep that had apparently spread through northern Europe over a relatively short period of time, but has yet to infect Scotland. This paper describes the development of a model of SBV spread applied to Scotland in the event of an incursion. This model shows that SBV spread is very sensitive to the temperature, with relatively little spread and few reproductive losses predicted in years with average temperatures but extensive spread (>1 million animals infected) and substantial reproductive losses in the hottest years. These results indicate that it is possible for SBV to spread in Scotland, however spread is limited by climatic conditions and the timing of introduction. Further results show that the transmission kernel shape and extrinsic incubation period parameter have a non-linear effect on disease transmission, so a greater understanding of the SBV transmission parameters is required.

Impacts of climate, host and landscape factors on Culicoides species in Scotland

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector a wide variety of internationally important arboviral pathogens of livestock and represent a widespread biting nuisance. This study investigated the influence of landscape, host and remotely-sensed climate factors on local abundance of livestock-associated species in Scotland, within a hierarchical generalized linear model framework. The Culicoides obsoletus group and the Culicoides pulicaris group accounted for 56% and 41%, respectively, of adult females trapped. Culicoides impunctatus Goetghebuer and C. pulicaris s.s. Linnaeus were the most abundant and widespread species in the C. pulicaris group (accounting for 29% and 10%, respectively, of females trapped). Abundance models performed well for C. impunctatus, Culicoides deltus Edwards and Culicoides punctatus Meigen (adjusted R(2) : 0.59-0.70), but not for C. pulicaris s.s. (adjusted R(2) : 0.36) and the C. obsoletus group (adjusted R(2) : 0.08). Local-scale abundance patterns were best explained by models combining host, landscape and climate factors. The abundance of C. impunctatus was negatively associated with cattle density, but positively associated with pasture cover, consistent with this species' preference in the larval stage for lightly grazed, wet rush pasture. Predicted abundances of this species varied widely among farms even over short distances (less than a few km). Modelling approaches that may facilitate the more accurate prediction of local abundance patterns for a wider range of Culicoides species are discussed.

West Nile virus vector Culex modestus established in southern England

Background

The risk posed to the United Kingdom by West Nile virus (WNV) has previously been considered low, due to the absence or scarcity of the main Culex sp. bridge vectors. The mosquito Culex modestus is widespread in southern Europe, where it acts as the principle bridge vector of WNV. This species was not previously thought to be present in the United Kingdom.

Findings

Mosquito larval surveys carried out in 2010 identified substantial populations of Cx. modestus at two sites in marshland in southeast England. Host-seeking-adult traps placed at a third site indicate that the relative seasonal abundance of Cx. modestus peaks in early August. DNA barcoding of these specimens from the United Kingdom and material from southern France confirmed the morphological identification.

Conclusions

Cx. modestus appears to be established in the North Kent Marshes, possibly as the result of a recent introduction. The addition of this species to the United Kingdom's mosquito fauna may increase the risk posed to the United Kingdom by WNV.

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

The 2006 bluetongue (BT) outbreak in northwestern Europe had devastating effects on cattle and sheep in that intensively farmed area. The role of wind in disease spread, through its effect on Culicoides dispersal, is still uncertain, and remains unquantified. We examine here the relationship between farm-level infection dates and wind speed and direction within the framework of a novel model involving both mechanistic and stochastic steps. We consider wind as both a carrier of host semio-chemicals, to which midges might respond by upwind flight, and as a transporter of the midges themselves, in a more or less downwind direction. For completeness, we also consider midge movement independent of wind and various combinations of upwind, downwind and random movements. Using stochastic simulation, we are able to explain infection onset at 94 per cent of the 2025 affected farms. We conclude that 54 per cent of outbreaks occurred through (presumably midge) movement of infections over distances of no more than 5 km, 92 per cent over distances of no more than 31 km and only 2 per cent over any greater distances. The modal value for all infections combined is less than 1 km. Our analysis suggests that previous claims for a higher frequency of long-distance infections are unfounded. We suggest that many apparent long-distance infections resulted from sequences of shorter-range infections; a 'stepping stone' effect. Our analysis also found that downwind movement (the only sort so far considered in explanations of BT epidemics) is responsible for only 39 per cent of all infections, and highlights the effective contribution to disease spread of upwind midge movement, which accounted for 38 per cent of all infections. The importance of midge flight speed is also investigated. Within the same model framework, lower midge active flight speed (of 0.13 rather than 0.5 m s(-1)) reduced virtually to zero the role of upwind movement, mainly because modelled wind speeds in the area concerned were usually greater than such flight speed. Our analysis, therefore, highlights the need to improve our knowledge of midge flight speed in field situations, which is still very poorly understood. Finally, the model returned an intrinsic incubation period of 8 days, in accordance with the values reported in the literature. We argue that better understanding of the movement of infected insect vectors is an important ingredient in the management of future outbreaks of BT in Europe, and other devastating vector-borne diseases elsewhere.

Collection of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) using CO2 and enantiomers of 1-octen-3-ol in the United Kingdom

The host kairomones carbon dioxide (CO2) and 1-octen-3-ol elicit a host seeking response in a wide range of haematophagous Diptera. This study investigates the response of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to these cues using field-based experiments at two sites in the United Kingdom with very different species complements. Traps used for surveillance (miniature CDC model 512) and control (Mosquito Magnet Pro) were modified to release ratios of (R)- and (S)-1-octen-3-ol enantiomers in combination with CO2 and, in the case of the latter trap type, a thermal cue. Abundance and species diversity were then compared between these treatments and against collections made using a trap with a CO2 lure only, in a Latin square design. In both habitats, results demonstrated that semiochemical lures containing a high proportion of the (R)-enantiomer consistently attracted a greater abundance of host-seeking Culicoides females than any other treatment. Culicoides collected using an optimal stimulus of 500 ml/min CO2 combined with 4.1 mg/h (R)-1-octen-3-ol were then compared with those collected on sheep through the use of a drop trap. While preliminary in nature, this trial indicated Culicoides species complements are similar between collections made using the drop trap in comparison to the semiochemical-baited CDC trap, and that there are advantages in using (R)-1-octen-3-ol.

Mapping the basic reproduction number (R₀) for vector-borne diseases: a case study on bluetongue virus

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

Invasion of bluetongue and other orbivirus infections into Europe: the role of biological and climatic processes

The invasion of multiple strains of the midge-borne bluetongue virus into southern Europe since the late 1990s provides a rare example of a clear impact of climate change on a vector-borne disease. However, the subsequent dramatic continent-wide spread and burden of this disease has depended largely on altered biotic interactions with vector and host communities in newly invaded areas. Transmission by Palearctic vectors has facilitated the establishment of the disease in cooler and wetter areas of both northern and southern Europe. This paper discusses the important biological and climatic processes involved in these invasions, and the lessons that must be drawn for effective risk management of bluetongue and other midge-borne viruses in Europe.

Quantifying the wind dispersal of Culicoides species in Greece and Bulgaria

This paper tests the hypothesis that Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species can be propagated by wind over long distances. Movement patterns of midges were inferred indirectly from patterns of the spread of bluetongue outbreaks between farms (using outbreak data from 1999-2001 for Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey) and then matched to concurrent wind patterns. The general methodology was to determine wind trajectories to and from each outbreak site based on the horizontal and vertical wind components of the European ReAnalysis-40 (ERA-40) dataset from the European centre for medium-range weather forecast (ECMWF). Forward trajectories (downwind or where the windvectors pointed to) and backward trajectories (upwind or where the wind-vectors originated from) were calculated for each outbreak for the period from one week before to one week after it had been recorded. These wind trajectories were then compared with the general outbreak patterns taking into consideration the different serotypes involved. It was found that the wind trajectories could be matched to the temporal distribution of the outbreak cases. Furthermore, the spread of the infected vector via the calculated wind trajectories was corroborated by molecular evidence. The conclusion is that the methodology presented is appropriate for quantifying the risk of spread of infected Culicoides midges by wind and that this approach could form an important component of a regional early-warning system for bluetongue.

Spatial and temporal distribution of bluetongue and its Culicoides vectors in Bulgaria

Surveillance of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges was carried out between 2001 and 2003, at 119 sites within a 50 x 50-km grid distributed across Bulgaria, using light trap collections around the time of peak adult midge abundance. Sentinel and ad hoc serum surveillance of hosts susceptible to bluetongue infection was carried out at around 300 sites between 1999 and 2003. Following the initial incursion of bluetongue virus 9 (BTV-9) into Bourgas province in 1999, affecting 85 villages along the southern border, a further 76 villages were affected along the western border in 2001, with outbreaks extending as far north as 43.6 degrees N. The BTV-9 strain in circulation was found to have a low pathogenicity for Bulgarian sheep populations, with less than 2% of susceptible individuals becoming sick and seroconversions detected up to 30 km from recorded outbreaks in the south. The major Old World vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer was not detected among over 70,000 Culicoides identified in summer collections, suggesting that BTV-9 transmission in Bulgaria was primarily carried out by indigenous European vectors. The most likely candidates, the Palaearctic species complexes - the Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C. pulicaris L. complexes - were widespread and abundant across the whole country. The C. obsoletus complex represented 75% of all individuals trapped in summer and occurred in high catch sizes (up to 15,000 individuals per night) but was not found across all outbreak sites, indicating that both Palearctic complexes probably played a role in transmission. Within the C. pulicaris complex, only C. pulicaris s.s., C. punctatus Meigen and C. newsteadi Austen were sufficiently abundant and prevalent to have been widely involved in transmission, whilst within the C. obsoletus complex most trapped males were C. obsoletus s.s. Adult vectors were found to be largely absent from sites in west Bulgaria for a period of at least 3 months over winter, which, taken along with the spatiotemporal pattern of outbreaks in the region between years, indicates the virus may be overwintering here by an alternative mechanism - either by covert persistence in the vertebrate host or possibly by persistence in larval stages of the vector.

Predicting the risk of bluetongue through time: climate models of temporal patterns of outbreaks in Israel

Determining the temporal relationship between climate and epidemics of Culicoides-borne viral disease may allow control and surveillance measures to be implemented earlier and more efficiently. In Israel, outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) have occurred almost annually since at least 1950, with severe episodes occurring periodically. In this paper, the authors model a twenty-year time-series of BT outbreaks in relation to climate. Satellite-derived correlates of low temperatures and high moisture levels increased the number of outbreaks per year. This is the first study to find a temporal relationship between the risk of Culicoides-borne disease and satellite-derived climate variables. Climatic conditions in the year preceding a BT episode, between October and December, coincident with the seasonal peak of vector abundance and outbreak numbers, appeared to be more importantthan spring or early summer conditions in the same year as the episode. Since Israel is an arid country, higher-than-average moisture levels during this period may increase the availability of breeding sites and refuges for adult Culicoides imicola vectors, while cooler-than-average temperatures will increase fecundity, offspring size and survival through adulthood in winter, which, in turn, increases the size of the initial vector population the following year. The proportion of variance in the annual BT outbreak time-series resulting from climate factors was relatively low, at around 20%. This was possibly due to temporal variation in other factors, such as viral incursions from surrounding countries and levels of herd immunity. Alternatively, since most BT virus (BTV) circulation in this region occurs silently, in resistant breeds of local sheep, the level of transmission is poorly correlated with outbreak notification so that strong relationships between BTV circulation and climate, if they exist, are obscured.

Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.

Modelling the distribution of bluetongue vectors

Recent epizootics of Culicoides-borne disease in the Mediterranean Basin have stimulated the development of climate-driven models for vectors. Predictor variables come from two main sources, weather data and satellites. Generally, models for Culicoides imicola combine temperature and moisture variables. The best weather models explain 75-85% of the variance in observed data for C. imicola, but satellite models perform better (85-95% of variance). Predictions of models for other regions appear mixed, with successes and failures. The failures indicate the need to: explore and incorporate other factors that may affect Culicoides populations, such as soil characteristics, host type and wind speed. Develop more complex models, recognising that different climate variables affect different stages of the life-cycle e.g. biological models. The very rapid spread in the distribution of C. imicola in recent years suggests that global warming may be a less important driver of change than other, currently unknown, factors.