Genetic similarity, breeding distribution range and sexual selection

Biological consequences of global change for birds

Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change.

Sexual selection explains more functional variation in the mammalian major histocompatibility complex than parasitism

Understanding drivers of genetic diversity at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is vitally important for predicting how vertebrate immune defence might respond to future selection pressures and for preserving immunogenetic diversity in declining populations. Parasite-mediated selection is believed to be the major selective force generating MHC polymorphism, and while MHC-based mating preferences also exist for multiple species including humans, the general importance of mate choice is debated. To investigate the contributions of parasitism and sexual selection in explaining among-species variation in MHC diversity, we applied comparative methods and meta-analysis across 112 mammal species, including carnivores, bats, primates, rodents and ungulates. We tested whether MHC diversity increased with parasite richness and relative testes size (as an indicator of the potential for mate choice), while controlling for phylogenetic autocorrelation, neutral mutation rate and confounding ecological variables. We found that MHC nucleotide diversity increased with parasite richness for bats and ungulates but decreased with parasite richness for carnivores. By contrast, nucleotide diversity increased with relative testes size for all taxa. This study provides support for both parasite-mediated and sexual selection in shaping functional MHC polymorphism across mammals, and importantly, suggests that sexual selection could have a more general role than previously thought.

Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution

In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

Duplication and population dynamics shape historic patterns of selection and genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex in rodents

Genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is vitally important for wildlife populations to respond to pathogen threats. As natural populations can fluctuate greatly in size, a key issue concerns how population cycles and bottlenecks that could reduce genetic diversity will influence MHC genes. Using 454 sequencing, we characterized genetic diversity at the DRB Class II locus in montane voles (Microtus montanus), a North American rodent that regularly undergoes high-amplitude fluctuations in population size. We tested for evidence of historic balancing selection, recombination, and gene duplication to identify mechanisms maintaining allelic diversity. Counter to our expectations, we found strong evidence of purifying selection acting on the DRB locus in montane voles. We speculate that the interplay between population fluctuations and gene duplication might be responsible for the weak evidence of historic balancing selection and strong evidence of purifying selection detected. To further explore this idea, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled comparative analysis across 16 rodent species with varying demographic histories and MHC duplication events (based on the maximum number of alleles detected per individual). On the basis of phylogenetic generalized linear model-averaging, we found evidence that the estimated number of duplicated loci was positively related to allelic diversity and, surprisingly, to the strength of purifying selection at the DRB locus. Our analyses also revealed that species that had undergone population bottlenecks had lower allelic richness than stable species. This study highlights the need to consider demographic history and genetic structure alongside patterns of natural selection to understand resulting patterns of genetic variation at the MHC.

Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.

Migratory divides and their consequences for dispersal, population size and parasite-host interactions

Populations of migratory birds differ in their direction of migration with neighbouring populations often migrating in divergent directions separated by migratory divides. A total of 26% of 103 passerine bird species in Europe had migratory divides that were located disproportionately often along a longitudinal gradient in Central Europe, consistent with the assumption of a Quaternary glacial origin of such divides in the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas followed by recolonization. Given that studies have shown significant genetic differentiation and reduced gene flow across migratory divides, we hypothesized that an absence of migratory divides would result in elevated rates of gene flow and hence a reduced level of local adaptation. In a comparative study, species with migratory divides had larger population sizes and population densities and longer dispersal distances than species without migratory divides. Species with migratory divides tended to be habitat generalists. Bird species with migratory divides had higher richness of blood parasites and higher growth rates of Staphylococcus on their eggs during the incubation period. There was weaker cell-mediated immunity in adults and stronger cell lysis in species with migratory divides. These findings may suggest that migratory divides constitute barriers to dispersal with consequences for ecology and evolution of distributions, population sizes, habitats and parasite-host interactions. They also suggest that migratory divides may play a role in local adaptation in host-parasite interactions.

Parasite-mediated evolution of the functional part of the MHC in primates

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a key model of genetic polymorphism, but the mechanisms underlying its extreme variability are debated. Most hypotheses for MHC diversity focus on pathogen-driven selection and predict that MHC polymorphism evolves under the pressure of a diverse parasite fauna. Several studies reported that certain alleles offer protection against certain parasites, yet it remains unclear whether variation in parasite pressure more generally covaries with allelic diversity and rates of molecular evolution of MHC across species. We tested this prediction in a comparative study of 41 primate species. We characterized polymorphism of the exon 2 of DRB region of the MHC class II. Our phylogenetic analyses controlled for the potential effects of neutral mutation rate, population size, geographic origin and body mass and revealed that nematode species richness associates positively with nonsynonymous nucleotide substitution rate at the functional part of the molecule. We failed to find evidence for allelic diversity being strongly related to parasite species richness. Continental distribution was a strong predictor of both allelic diversity and substitution rate, with higher values in Malagasy and Neotropical primates. These results indicate that parasite pressure can influence the different estimates of MHC polymorphism, whereas geography plays an independent role in the natural history of MHC.

Climate change affects the duration of the reproductive season in birds

1. The duration of the reproductive season may depend on the duration of the growing season, with recent amelioration in spring temperatures allowing earlier start of reproduction. Earlier start of reproduction may allow a longer breeding season because of more broods a longer interval between broods for multi-brooded species. 2. We analysed extensive long-term data sets on timing of breeding in 20 species of birds from Denmark, based on records of over 100 000 individual offspring, showing considerable heterogeneity among species in temporal change in duration of the breeding season. 3. Multi-brooded species increased the duration of their breeding season by 0.43 days year(-1) while single-brooded species decreased the duration of their breeding season by 0.44 days year(-1). This implies that recent climate change has allowed more broods or better temporal spacing of broods in multi-brooded species, while the time window for reproduction has become narrower in single-brooded species. 4. The single-most important predictor of change in duration of the breeding season was change in the date breeding started; there was no change in the date of end of breeding. Species advancing their breeding date the most also expanded the duration of the breeding season. In contrast, long-distance migration and generation time did not predict change in duration of the breeding season.

Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining

Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk.