Global warming and amphibian extinctions in eastern Australia

Effects of temperature and precipitation changes on shifts in breeding phenology of an endangered toad

In the last century, a plethora of species have shown rapid phenological changes in response to climate change. Among animals, amphibians exhibit some of the greatest responses since their activity strongly depends on temperature and rainfall regimes. These shifts in phenology can have negative consequences for amphibian fitness. Thus, understanding phenological changes in amphibians is pivotal to design conservation actions to mitigate climate change effects. We used data on Common Spadefoot Toad (Pelobates fuscus) reproductive migration to wetlands over a period of 8 years in Italy to (i) identify the factors related to breeding migrations, (ii) assess potential phenological shifts in the breeding period, and (iii) determine which climatic factors are related to the observed phenological shifts. Our results showed that toads migrate to spawning sites preferably in early spring, on rainy days with temperatures of 9-14 °C, and with high humidity. Furthermore, despite an increase in average temperature across the study period, we observed a delay in the start of breeding migrations of 12.4 days over 8 years. This counterintuitive pattern was the result of a succession of hot and dry years that occurred in the study area, highlighting that for ephemeral pond breeders, precipitation could have a larger impact than temperature on phenology. Our results belie the strong presumption that climate change will shift amphibian phenology toward an earlier breeding migration and underline the importance of closely investigating the environmental factors related to species phenology.

The Role of Urbanness, Vegetation Structure, and Scale in Shaping Puerto Rico's Acoustically Active Mangrove Fauna Communities

The mangroves of Puerto Rico occupy a gradient of urbanization that offers a chance to test hypotheses on urban faunal communities. These hypotheses state that urban avifaunal communities have greater representation by generalists and that certain mangrove specialists can utilize urban landscapes. Much of this is said to be driven by food resources, with frugivores and nectarivores benefiting from abundant residential flowers and fruits, while insectivores are driven away by low food resources. This study used passive acoustic monitoring to identify the audible anuran and avifaunal species in mangroves across an urban gradient of Puerto Rico. Five anurans and thirty-one avian species were detected across all sites, with twenty-three species found at the most species rich site, and eight at the least rich site. Analyses on urban effects were conducted at an island-wide scale as well as a local scale with different results between the two. Island wide, the most urban faunal communities were more similar to each other in species composition relative to the least urban communities, and there was a significant difference in the community composition between the two. However, there were no differences in avian or anuran species richness between the least and most urban sites. Minimum canopy height was the strongest predictor of overall avian richness and avian invertivore richness, while the extent of mixed forest cover was the strongest predictor for increasing anuran richness. Some urban metrics, such as street density and the percent of surrounding urban and developed open space were strong predictors of certain avian feeding guilds and distribution groups. At the local scale, sites of maximum urbanness held 2-3 more bird species on average than corresponding sites of minimum urbanness at the same location, although there was no difference in anuran species and no differences in avian or anuran community composition between the two. Further, avian richness did increase significantly from the minimum to maximum urbanness site at six of the nine locations. These findings highlight that higher mangrove canopies are the strongest predictor of higher avian richness, but depending on the scale of observations, urbanness also plays a limited role in shaping mangrove faunal communities.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Leaf Litter Inhibits Growth of an Amphibian Fungal Pathogen

Past studies have found a heterogeneous distribution of the amphibian chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Recent studies have accounted for some of this heterogeneity through a positive association between canopy cover and Bd abundance, which is attributed to the cooling effect of canopy cover. We questioned whether leaf litter inputs that are also associated with canopy cover might also alter Bd growth. Leaf litter inputs exhibit tremendous interspecific chemical variation, and we hypothesized that Bd growth varies with leachate chemistry. We also hypothesized that Bd uses leaf litter as a growth substrate. To test these hypotheses, we conducted laboratory trials in which we exposed cultures of Bd to leachate of 12 temperate leaf litter species at varying dilutions. Using a subset of those 12 litter species, we also exposed Bd to pre-leached litter substrate. We found that exposure to litter leachate and substrate reduced Bd spore and sporangia densities, although there was substantial variation among treatments. In particular, Bd densities were inversely correlated with concentrations of phenolic acids. We conducted a field survey of phenolic concentrations in natural wetlands which verified that the leachate concentrations in our lab study are ecologically relevant. Our study reinforces prior indications that positive associations between canopy cover and Bd abundance are likely mediated by water temperature effects, but this phenomenon might be counteracted by changes in aquatic chemistry from leaf litter inputs.

Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.

Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus

Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate-land use interactions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest-carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.

Anurofauna of an Atlantic Rainforest fragment and its surroundings in Northern Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

We carried out a study on the anurofaunal community from an Atlantic Forest fragment (Monte Verde mountains) and the surrounding area in Cambuci municipality, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, which constitutes one of the largest fragments remaining in the largely deforested landscape of the northern portion of the State. We combined three sampling methods: plot sampling, transects and pit-fall traps. We recorded twenty species of amphibians, of which only eleven were found within the forest fragment (and five of these also occurred in the surrounding matrix). Two of the species recorded in the present study (Crossodactylus sp. and Ischnocnema cf. parva) may represent undescribed taxa. Our records expand the distribution range of one species (Scinax trapicheiroi) to the north, and fill a geographic distribution gap for another one (Ischnocnema oea). The estimated overall density of frogs living in the leaf litter of the fragment (based on results of plot sampling) was 3.1 individuals/100 m², with Haddadus binotatus being the most abundant species (2.4 individuals/100 m²). Comparisons of our data with those of other studies suggest that anuran communities in forest fragments ca. 1,000 ha or smaller may be severely limited in their richness, and often include a large proportion of species tolerant to open areas, such as many hylids. Our results show the importance of increasing knowledge about the anurofaunal community of the northern portion of the State of Rio de Janeiro and preserve the forest remnants that still exist in the region.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

Environmental synergisms and extinctions of tropical species

Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni-corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic-species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.

Impact and dynamics of disease in species threatened by the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Estimating disease-associated mortality and transmission processes is difficult in free-ranging wildlife but important for understanding disease impacts and dynamics and for informing management decisions. In a capture-mark-recapture study, we used a PCR-based diagnostic test in combination with multistate models to provide the first estimates of disease-associated mortality and detection, infection, and recovery rates for frogs endemically infected with the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes the pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis. We found that endemic chytridiomycosis was associated with a substantial reduction (approximately 38%) in apparent monthly survival of the threatened rainforest treefrog Litoria pearsoniana despite a long period of coexistence (approximately 30 years); detection rate was not influenced by disease status; improved recovery and reduced infection rates correlated with decreased prevalence, which occurred when temperatures increased; and incorporating changes in individuals' infection status through time with multistate models increased effect size and support (98.6% vs. 71% of total support) for the presence of disease-associated mortality when compared with a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in which infection status was restricted to the time of first capture. Our results indicate that amphibian populations can face significant ongoing pressure from chytridiomycosis long after epidemics associated with initial Bd invasions subside, an important consideration for the long-term conservation of many amphibian species worldwide. Our findings also improve confidence in estimates of disease prevalence in wild amphibians and provide a general framework for estimating parameters in epidemiological models for chytridiomycosis, an important step toward better understanding and management of this disease.

The link between rapid enigmatic amphibian decline and the globally emerging chytrid fungus

Amphibians are globally declining and approximately one-third of all species are threatened with extinction. Some of the most severe declines have occurred suddenly and for unknown reasons in apparently pristine habitats. It has been hypothesized that these "rapid enigmatic declines" are the result of a panzootic of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by globally emerging amphibian chytrid fungus. In a Species Distribution Model, we identified the potential distribution of this pathogen. Areas and species from which rapid enigmatic decline are known significantly overlap with those of highest environmental suitability to the chytrid fungus. We confirm the plausibility of a link between rapid enigmatic decline in worldwide amphibian species and epizootic chytridiomycosis.

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines, more convincing evidence is needed of a causal link.