European rabbit survival and recruitment are linked to epidemiological and environmental conditions in their exotic range

Surveillance of Wildlife Viruses: Insights from South Australia's Monitoring of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV GI.1 and GI.2)

Surveillance of wildlife virus impacts can be passive or active. Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, especially regarding cost and knowledge that can be gained. Monitoring of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (GI.1 and GI.2) in South Australia has utilised both strategies and their methods and gained insights are discussed. Active strategies to monitor the continuing impact of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (GI.2) on susceptible lagomorphs in countries such as the USA, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, France and Portugal are encouraged to gain critical insights into the evolution, spread and impact of this virus. Furthermore, there are lessons here for the international monitoring of diseases in wildlife, particularly where there is a risk of them becoming zoonotic.

Effects of environmental and intrinsic factors on the reproduction of insular European wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus cuniculus Linnaeus 1758)

European wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus cuniculus) have been recently recognized as serious crop pests on Lemnos Island, Greece. With an aim to understand the population dynamics, rabbit reproduction was studied in relation to environmental and intrinsic factors, by a postmortem examination of 273 adults (162 males, 111 females), collected from February 2007 to January 2008. Reproductive activity peaked in the spring and was higher in agricultural than in phryganic habitats for females [pregnant: agricultural 74.5%, phryganic 54.0%, p=0.041; average number of implanted embryos: agricultural 5.56±0.21 standard error (SE), phryganic 4.07±0.21 SE, p=0.0002], but not for males (fertile: agricultural 38.8%, phryganic 31.2%, p=0.308). Classification tree models included explanatory variables with monthly time lags to detect important effects. The male reproductive status (i.e. proportion fertile) was favored by a low maximum temperature in the sampling month (<21.5°C), whereas under a higher maximum temperature male fertility was favored by a high vegetation quality (>14.2% crude protein, CP), good body condition and low mean temperature (<20.5°C). A low maximum temperature at conception (<20.0°C; 1 month time lag) favored pregnancy status (i.e. proportion pregnant). At a higher maximum temperature, pregnancy was favored by a high vegetation cover (>86.8%) at conception. Vegetation quality higher than 10.9% CP resulted in a medium to high number of implanted embryos (2 months time lag), further determined by a high vegetation cover (>90.8%; 2 months time lag) and a low population density (<1.9 ind·ha−1). The results identified temperature and habitat quality as prime drivers of reproduction, and ultimately population dynamics. Such information could prove useful for successful rabbit management on Lemnos and other similar areas.

Dynamic models in research and management of biological invasions

Invasive species are increasing in number, extent and impact worldwide. Effective invasion management has thus become a core socio-ecological challenge. To tackle this challenge, integrating spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion processes with modelling approaches is a promising approach. The inclusion of dynamic processes in such modelling frameworks (i.e. dynamic or hybrid models, here defined as models that integrate both dynamic and static approaches) adds an explicit temporal dimension to the study and management of invasions, enabling the prediction of invasions and optimisation of multi-scale management and governance. However, the extent to which dynamic approaches have been used for that purpose is under-investigated. Based on a literature review, we examined the extent to which dynamic modelling has been used to address invasions worldwide. We then evaluated how the use of dynamic modelling has evolved through time in the scope of invasive species management. The results suggest that modelling, in particular dynamic modelling, has been increasingly applied to biological invasions, especially to support management decisions at local scales. Also, the combination of dynamic and static modelling approaches (hybrid models with a spatially explicit output) can be especially effective, not only to support management at early invasion stages (from prevention to early detection), but also to improve the monitoring of invasion processes and impact assessment. Further development and testing of such hybrid models may well be regarded as a priority for future research aiming to improve the management of invasions across scales.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.

Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon

Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

Multi-event capture-recapture modeling of host-pathogen dynamics among European rabbit populations exposed to myxoma and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Viruses: common and heterogeneous patterns

Host-pathogen epidemiological processes are often unclear due both to their complexity and over-simplistic approaches used to quantify them. We applied a multi-event capture-recapture procedure on two years of data from three rabbit populations to test hypotheses about the effects on survival of, and the dynamics of host immunity to, both myxoma virus and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (MV and RHDV). Although the populations shared the same climatic and management conditions, MV and RHDV dynamics varied greatly among them; MV and RHDV seroprevalences were positively related to density in one population, but RHDV seroprevalence was negatively related to density in another. In addition, (i) juvenile survival was most often negatively related to seropositivity, (ii) RHDV seropositives never had considerably higher survival, and (iii) seroconversion to seropositivity was more likely than the reverse. We suggest seropositivity affects survival depending on trade-offs among antibody protection, immunosuppression and virus lethality. Negative effects of seropositivity might be greater on juveniles due to their immature immune system. Also, while RHDV directly affects survival through the hemorrhagic syndrome, MV lack of direct lethal effects means that interactions influencing survival are likely to be more complex. Multi-event modeling allowed us to quantify patterns of host-pathogen dynamics otherwise difficult to discern. Such an approach offers a promising tool to shed light on causative mechanisms.