The determinants of county growth

So Close, Yet So Far: The Benefits and Limits of Rural–Urban Industry Linkages

Rural–urban linkages have long been recognized as a potential rural economic development strategy. This article tests the potential effects of rural–urban linkages created through rural food manufacturing, tourism, and data processing centers on rural per capita income, employment, and population between 2009 and 2016. Using unique spatial interaction variables, we empirically estimate the Carlino–Mills conditional growth model for all rural counties in the contiguous US. Robustness checks reveal the limits of this economic development strategy by testing the model specification across different definitions of urban and rural places and varying spatial lags. Results suggest that both agritourism and data processing centers increase per capita incomes and employment through rural–urban linkages across distances, urbanicity, and rurality. The potential of beneficial rural–urban linkages associated with food manufacturing appears to be more situational, while creative class and outdoor recreation had small negative or insignificant rural-urban linkage effects on the three economic outcomes.

Location-Specific Adjustments in Population and Employment across Metropolitan America

This paper examines the joint adjustment of population and employment numbers across America’s metropolitan areas during the period 1990–2015. Current levels of both are estimated, for 10 year periods, using their lagged (own and cross) levels and eight other lagged variables. Population is affected by both human and natural amenities and employment by wages, patents, and other attributes of the workforce. This paper questions the conventional interpretation of the adjustment process by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) instead of standard linear (OLS, 2GLS) regression. Here the various estimates are all local, so the long-run equilibrium solutions for the adjustment process vary over space. Convergence no longer indicates a stable universal solution but instead involves a mix of stable and unstable local solutions. Local sustainability becomes an issue when making projections because employment can quickly lead or lag population in some metropolitan labor markets.

Amenity Migration and Public Lands: Rise of the Protected Areas

Rural amenity migration, or the relocation for quality of life purposes as opposed to monetary enhancement, has been occurring for decades and has been particularly pronounced in the American West where the phenomenon peaked in the 1990s. Researchers have illustrated that some places are more attractive for migrants than others and that certain regional amenities hold considerable influence on where migrants relocate. Increased migration levels typically result in increased economic growth indicators, making amenity migration an attractive rural development strategy. But comprehensive econometric analysis focused on amenity migration in the American West has been lacking. To address this, we conducted an econometric analysis of attributes that influenced migration to rural Western counties from 1980 to 2010. Over 20 potential amenity supply categories were collated for 356 rural counties from 11 Western states, with a focus on public lands. Descriptive statistics and OLS regressions were estimated and interpreted. Traditional amenities of climate, water area, and regional access were highly associated with migration levels, while designated natural amenities of Wilderness and National Monuments were the most influential public lands for migration to rural Western counties. Farming and oil and gas dependency were negatively associated with migration levels. Increasing the amount of protected areas, and branding campaigns based on natural amenities, can be a critical development strategy for rural communities.

Urban Population and Amenities: The Neoclassical Model of Location

We develop a neoclassical general-equilibrium model to explain cross-metro variation in population and density. We provide new methods to estimate traded and non-traded productivities, and elasticities of housing and land supply, using density and land area data. From wage and housing cost indices, the model explains half of U.S. density and population variation and finds that quality of life determines location choices more than trade productivity; productivity and factor substitution in housing matter most, but are weak in nicer areas. Relaxing land use regulations would increase population in the West, raising both quality of life and productivity experienced by residents.

Big Data Analysis to Observe Check-in Behavior Using Location-Based Social Media Data

With rapid advancement in location-based services (LBS), their acquisition has become a powerful tool to link people with similar interests across long distances, as well as connecting family and friends. To observe human behavior towards using social media, it is essential to understand and measure the check-in behavior towards a location-based social network (LBSN). This check-in phenomenon of sharing location, activities, and time by users has encouraged this research on the frequency of using an LBSN. In this paper, we investigate the check-in behavior of several million individuals, for whom we observe the gender and their frequency of using Chinese microblog Sina Weibo (referred as “Weibo”) over a period in Shanghai, China. To produce a smooth density surface of check-ins, we analyze the overall spatial patterns by using the kernel density estimation (KDE) by using ArcGIS. Furthermore, our results reveal that female users are more inclined towards using social media, and a difference in check-in behavior during weekday and weekend is also observed. From the results, LBSN data seems to be a complement to traditional methods (i.e., survey, census) and is used to study gender-based check-in behavior.

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990-2010

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing.

Local Taxes, Public Services, and the Intrametropolitan Location of Firms and Households

This work examines the effects of local public sector tax and spending decisions on the intrametropolitan location of jobs and workers. Municipality-level data for the entire Philadelphia metropolitan area are used to estimate a two equation partial adjustment model of firm and household location. Effective local property and income tax rates and spending data for three (exhaustive) service categories are included. The model is estimated for total employment and six sectors The findings imply that employment location is more sensitive to local government activities than is household location. Firms m most sectors react to both tax and spending policies. The effects on employment of local tax increases can be partially offset if the higher taxes supplement particular types of spending. However, differences across sectors imply that the net effect on total employment will be negative except in very special circumstances. Household behavior, on the other hand, is affected only by school spending. The findings also imply that models based on highly aggregated measures of employment or economic activity understate the speed of adjustment of the system, resulting in overstated estimates of long-run tax and spending effects.

An analysis of adult obesity and hypertension in appalachia

Obesity is a major health problem in the United States, and the burden associated is high. Hypertension seems to be the most common obesity-related health problem. Studies show that hypertension is approximately twice as prevalent among the obese as in the non-obese population. This study has two main objectives. First, to examine the association between obesity and hypertension within the context of economic growth in Appalachia, and second to estimate the cost of hypertension linked to obesity in Appalachia. The study uses simultaneous equations and Logit analysis for estimations. Data are from Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance Systems (BRFSS) surveys of 2001 and 2009. Results for simultaneous analysis show that hypertension decreases with decreasing obesity, increasing employment growth, and increasing income. Logit analysis highlights the importance of controlling obesity, income growth, employment growth, education, and exercises in mitigating hypertension in Appalachia. Ageing indicates a high potential of getting hypertension. Total economic cost of hypertension linked to obesity is $9.35 billion, significantly a high cost to Appalachia. Overall, results reveal the impacts of obesity on hypertension and some possible ways of mitigation. Thus, results suggest a comprehensive set of policies to Appalachia which sufficiently improve employment opportunities, educational facilities, and healthcare facilities with adequately addressed to obesity and hypertension.

Gender, space, and the location changes of jobs and people: a spatial simultaneous equations analysis

This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes autoregressive and cross-regressive spatial lags to detect relations both within and among these groups. Spatial weights matrices reflecting different bands of travel times are used to calculate the spatial lags and to gauge the spatial nature of these relations. The empirical results show that although population–employment interaction is more localized for women's employment, no gender difference exists in the direction of interaction. Employment growth for both men and women is more influenced by population growth than vice versa. The interaction within employment groups is even more important than population growth. Women's, and especially men's, local employment growth mostly benefits from the same employment growth in neighboring locations. Finally, interaction between these groups is practically absent, although men's employment growth may have a negative impact on women's employment growth within small geographic areas. In summary, the results confirm the crucial roles of gender and space, and offer important insights into possible relations within and among subgroups of jobs and people.

Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?

Recent developments in urban and regional planning require more accurate population forecasts at subcounty levels, as well as a consideration of interactions among population growth, traffic flow, land use, and environmental impacts. However, the extrapolation methods, currently the most often used demographic forecasting techniques for subcounty areas, cannot meet the demand. This study tests a knowledge-based regression approach, which has been successfully used for forecasts at the national level, for subcounty population forecasting. In particular, this study applies four regression models that incorporate demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, transportation accessibility, natural amenities, and land development to examine the population change since 1970 and to prepare the 1990-based forecast of year 2000 population at the minor civil division level in Wisconsin. The findings indicate that this approach does not outperform the extrapolation projections. Although the regression methods produce more precise projections, the least biased projections are often generated by one of the extrapolation techniques. The performance of the knowledge-based regression methods is discounted at subcounty levels by temporal instability and the scale effect. The regression coefficients exhibit a statistically significant level of temporal instability across the estimation and projection periods and tend to change more rapidly at finer geographic scales.

County wide employment and population growth: an analysis of the 1980s

"Regional scientists remain interested in studying interregional differences in the growth rates of population and employment. Following the earlier work of Carlino and Mills, this paper examines growth trends at the county level in the U.S. during the period 1981-1989. Five major sectors of employment are examined. A partial adjustment model is developed that captures intercounty differences in amenities, business and fiscal conditions, demography, employment structure, and relative location. Some evidence is given that population and employment growth was simultaneous, although feedback effects apparently were not strong."

The role of equilibrium and disequilibrium in modeling regional growth and decline: a critical reassessment

The authors critically examine a 1990 study by Alan W. Evans concerning the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent migration research. "We here argue that Evans is unconvincing in his primary substantive argument; we provide an alternative reading of the literature that supports this assertion....[We then illustrate] the substantive issues in terms of a simple formal model that allows for both equilibrium and disequilibrium migration." The geographical focus is on the United States. A reply by Evans is included (pp. 89-97).

Equilibrium and disequilibrium in migration modelling

"Equilibrium and disequilibrium approaches to migration modelling are elucidated and distinguishing features are identified. Relevant econometric evidence bearing on these distinctions is reviewed. A summary of current knowledge and priorities for future research is presented." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

Migration and the public sector: a survey

"A review of the existing literature on human migration reveals relatively few studies that explicitly examine the relationships between public policy decisions and human migration flows. The surveyed literature includes studies of national policies, such as defence spending, migration subsidies and intergovernmental transfers, as well as sub-national policies, such as welfare and unemployment benefits, state and local taxes, education and other public services. Suggestions for incorporating public sector information into existing migration analysis frameworks and further areas of research are provided." The geographical focus is on developed countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

The assumption of equilibrium in the analysis of migration and interregional differences: a review of some recent research

"This paper questions the plausibility of the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent research into migration and the valuation of amenities in the United States. It is shown that it is difficult to develop a satisfactory explanation for continuing net migration which is compatible with the equilibrium assumption, and that recent relevant research generally fails to support the idea that the U.S. economy is in equilibrium. The association of higher rent levels with in-migration is explained as a short-run phenomenon. If the spatial economy is in disequilibrium, then the valuations of amenities assuming equilibrium will be biased, being probably too low in areas of net in-migration and too high in areas of net out-migration."

A demographic analysis of the population growth of states, 1950-1980

Factors affecting regional differences in population growth in the United States are explored. "In this study, we estimated the contributions of births, deaths, and migration to changes in population size between 1950 and 1980 for the 48 contiguous states in the United States. We found that population momentum (i.e., the growth that would occur in a closed population if fertility and mortality rates remained constant) had the largest effect on population growth in most states, but that differences in net migration were the major cause of state-to-state differences in growth rates. We also found that net migration has been gaining in importance compared to natural increase as a component of population growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming decades." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 429).

Population decentralization within metropolitan areas: 1970-1980

Using a data set that maintains geographic and fiscal continuity over time and across a sample of major U.S. metropolitan areas, the authors identify factors of economic and population decentralization that affected central city areas between 1970 and 1980. The problems of annexation are resolved by estimating population changes for central cities and suburban areas with constant 1980 boundaries, and by calculating fiscal variables from overlapping jurisdictions by city area as opposed to municipal city government only. "The empirical investigation supports the view that demographic and housing stock variables seem to have had a greater impact on decentralization than central city-suburban fiscal differences."

Measuring the impact of locational characteristics on migration: Interpreting cross-sectional analyses

Methods that employ cross-sectional data to analyze the impact of locational characteristics on migration decisions may produce seriously biased results because migrant decisions at any one point in time reflect historical as well as contemporaneous forces. A comparison of results based on a typical cross-sectional analysis and those obtained with longitudinal data shows that these issues are of empirical importance. An alternative interpretation of the results of cross-sectional migration analyses is provided.

On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development

"The role of location-specific amenities in human migration decisions, and subsequently regional development, is explored. A framework is developed which motivates a new assessment of existing alternative models of regional development, indicating the need for additional modeling efforts which focus upon amenities as critical elements in such analyses. The approach hinges upon the notion that amenity values are capitalized into wages, rents, or other local prices. This process of capitalization enables researchers to explore the implicit value that society places upon amenities, which can then be used in assessing future regional-development trends in a more comprehensive manner."