The coastal-disjunct mesic flora in the inland Pacific Northwest of USA and Canada: refugia, dispersal and disequilibrium

The Historical Complexity of Tree Height Growth Dynamic Associated with Climate Change in Western North America

The effect of climate on tree growth has received increased interest in the context of climate change. However, most studies have been limited geographically and with respect to species. Here, sixteen tree species of western North America were used to investigate the response of trees to climate change. Forest inventory data from 36,944 stands established between 1600 and 1968 throughout western North America were summarized. The height growth (top height at a breast-height age of 50 years) of healthy dominant and co-dominant trees was related to annual and summer temperatures, the annual and summer Palmer Drought Severity Indexes (PDSIs), and the tree establishment date (ED). Climate-induced height growth patterns were then tested to determine links to the spatial environment (geographic locations and soil properties), the species’ range (coastal, interior, or both), and traits (shade tolerance and leaf form). Analysis was performed using a linear mixed model (total species) and a general linear model (species scale). Climate change was globally beneficial, except for Alaska yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D. Don) Spach), and growth patterns were magnified for coastal-ranged, high-shade-tolerant, and broadleaf species, and mostly at the northernmost extents of these species’ ranges. Nevertheless, growth patterns were more complex with respect to soil properties. A growth decline for some species was observed at higher latitudes and elevations and was possibly related to increased cloudiness, precipitation, or drought (in interior areas). These results highlight the spatio-temporal complexity of the growth response to recent global climate change.

Climate-driven ecological stability as a globally shared cause of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions: the Plaids and Stripes Hypothesis

Controversy persists about why so many large-bodied mammal species went extinct around the end of the last ice age. Resolving this is important for understanding extinction processes in general, for assessing the ecological roles of humans, and for conserving remaining megafaunal species, many of which are endangered today. Here we explore an integrative hypothesis that asserts that an underlying cause of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions was a fundamental shift in the spatio-temporal fabric of ecosystems worldwide. This shift was triggered by the loss of the millennial-scale climate fluctuations that were characteristic of the ice age but ceased approximately 11700 years ago on most continents. Under ice-age conditions, which prevailed for much of the preceding 2.6 Ma, these radical and rapid climate changes prevented many ecosystems from fully equilibrating with their contemporary climates. Instead of today's 'striped' world in which species' ranges have equilibrated with gradients of temperature, moisture, and seasonality, the ice-age world was a disequilibrial 'plaid' in which species' ranges shifted rapidly and repeatedly over time and space, rarely catching up with contemporary climate. In the transient ecosystems that resulted, certain physiological, anatomical, and ecological attributes shared by megafaunal species pre-adapted them for success. These traits included greater metabolic and locomotory efficiency, increased resistance to starvation, longer life spans, greater sensory ranges, and the ability to be nomadic or migratory. When the plaid world of the ice age ended, many of the advantages of being large were either lost or became disadvantages. For instance in a striped world, the low population densities and slow reproductive rates associated with large body size reduced the resiliency of megafaunal species to population bottlenecks. As the ice age ended, the downsides of being large in striped environments lowered the extinction thresholds of megafauna worldwide, which then increased the vulnerability of individual species to a variety of proximate threats they had previously tolerated, such as human predation, competition with other species, and habitat loss. For many megafaunal species, the plaid-to-stripes transition may have been near the base of a hierarchy of extinction causes whose relative importances varied geographically, temporally, and taxonomically.

How much do we know about the frequency of hybridisation and polyploidy in the Mediterranean region?

Natural hybridisation and polyploidy are currently recognised as drivers of biodiversity, despite early scepticism about their importance. The Mediterranean region is a biodiversity hotspot where geological and climatic events have created numerous opportunities for speciation through hybridisation and polyploidy. Still, our knowledge on the frequency of these mechanisms in the region is largely limited, despite both phenomena are frequently cited in studies of Mediterranean plants. We reviewed information available from biodiversity and cytogenetic databases to provide the first estimates of hybridisation and polyploidy frequency in the Mediterranean region. We also inspected the most comprehensive modern Mediterranean Flora (Flora iberica) to survey the frequency and taxonomic distribution of hybrids and polyploids in Iberian Peninsula. We found that <6% of Mediterranean plants were hybrids, although a higher frequency was estimated for the Iberian Peninsula (13%). Hybrids were concentrated in few families and in even fewer genera. The overall frequency of polyploidy (36.5%) was comparable with previous estimates in other regions; however our estimates increased when analysing the Iberian Peninsula (48.8%). A surprisingly high incidence of species harbouring two or more ploidy levels was also observed (21.7%). A review of the available literature also showed that the ecological factors driving emergence and establishment of new entities are still poorly studied in the Mediterranean flora, although geographic barriers seem to play a major role in polyploid complexes. Finally, this study reveals several gaps and limitations in our current knowledge about the frequency of hybridisation and polyploidy in the Mediterranean region. The obtained estimates might change in the future with the increasing number of studies; still, rather than setting the complete reality, we hope that this work triggers future studies on hybridisation and polyploidy in the Mediterranean region.

Identifying cryptic diversity with predictive phylogeography

Identifying units of biological diversity is a major goal of organismal biology. An increasing literature has focused on the importance of cryptic diversity, defined as the presence of deeply diverged lineages within a single species. While most discoveries of cryptic lineages proceed on a taxon-by-taxon basis, rapid assessments of biodiversity are needed to inform conservation policy and decision-making. Here, we introduce a predictive framework for phylogeography that allows rapidly identifying cryptic diversity. Our approach proceeds by collecting environmental, taxonomic and genetic data from codistributed taxa with known phylogeographic histories. We define these taxa as a reference set, and categorize them as either harbouring or lacking cryptic diversity. We then build a random forest classifier that allows us to predict which other taxa endemic to the same biome are likely to contain cryptic diversity. We apply this framework to data from two sets of disjunct ecosystems known to harbour taxa with cryptic diversity: the mesic temperate forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America and the arid lands of Southwestern North America. The predictive approach presented here is accurate, with prediction accuracies placed between 65% and 98.79% depending of the ecosystem. This seems to indicate that our method can be successfully used to address ecosystem-level questions about cryptic diversity. Further, our application for the prediction of the cryptic/non-cryptic nature of unknown species is easily applicable and provides results that agree with recent discoveries from those systems. Our results demonstrate that the transition of phylogeography from a descriptive to a predictive discipline is possible and effective.

Genetic Structure across Broad Spatial and Temporal Scales: Rocky Mountain Tailed Frogs (Ascaphus montanus; Anura: Ascaphidae) in the Inland Temperate Rainforest

Contemporary and historical processes interact to structure genetic variation, however discerning between these can be difficult. Here, we analyze range-wide variation at 13 microsatellite loci in 2098 Rocky Mountain tailed frogs, Ascaphus montanus, collected from 117 streams across the species distribution in the Inland Northwest (INW) and interpret that variation in light of historical phylogeography, contemporary landscape genetics, and the reconstructed paleodistribution of the species. Further, we project species distribution models (SDMs) to predict future changes in the range as a function of changing climate. Genetic structure has a strong spatial signature that is precisely congruent with a deep (~1.8 MY) phylogeographic split in mtDNA when we partition populations into 2 clusters (K = 2), and is congruent with refugia areas inferred from our paleorange reconstructions. There is a hierarchical pattern of geographic structure as we permit additional clusters, with populations clustering following mountain ranges. Nevertheless, genetic diversity is the highest in populations at the center of the range and is attenuated in populations closer to the range edges. Similarly, geographic distance is the single best predictor of pairwise genetic differentiation, but connectivity also is an important predictor. At intermediate and local geographic scales, deviations from isolation-by-distance are more apparent, at least in the northern portion of the distribution. These results indicate that both historical and landscape factors are contributing to the genetic structure and diversity of tailed frogs in the Inland Northwest.

Which host-dependent insects are most prone to coextinction under changed climates?

Coextinction (loss of dependent species with their host or partner species) presents a threat to untold numbers of organisms. Climate change may act synergistically to accelerate rates of coextinction. In this review, we present the first synthesis of the available literature and propose a novel schematic diagram that can be used when assessing the potential risk climate change represents for dependent species. We highlight traits that may increase the susceptibility of insect species to coextinction induced by climate change, suggest the most influential host characteristics, and identify regions where climate change may have the greatest impact on dependent species. The aim of this review was to provide a platform for future research, directing efforts toward taxa and habitats at greatest risk of species loss through coextinction accelerated by climate change.

Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories.

METHODS

We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50-200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology.

KEY RESULTS

The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.