Occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a time-dependent prognostic predictor independent of baseline model for end-stage liver disease score

Mac-2-Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer to Albumin Ratio Predicts Bacterial Infections in Cirrhotic Patients

INTRODUCTION

Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel biomarker for liver fibrosis, but little is known about its role in cirrhosis-associated clinical outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the predictive role of M2BPGi in cirrhosis-associated complications.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-nine cirrhotic patients were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were followed up for 1 year, and cirrhosis-associated clinical events were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to establish the values of the predictive models for cirrhotic outcomes, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify predictors of clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Sixty (40.3%) patients experienced cirrhosis-associated clinical events and had higher M2BPGi levels compared to those without events (8.7 vs. 5.1 cutoff index, p < 0.001). The most common cirrhosis-associated complications were bacterial infections (24.2%). On ROC analysis, M2BPGi to albumin ratio (M2BPGi/albumin) had comparable discriminant abilities for all cirrhosis-associated events (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.74) compared with M2BPGi, Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin scores, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and was superior to M2BPGi alone for all bacterial infectious events (AUC = 0.80). Cox regression analysis revealed that the M2BPGi/albumin, but not M2BPGi alone, independently predicted all cirrhosis-associated events (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.34, p = 0.038) and all bacterial infectious events (HR = 1.51, p = 0.011) within 1 year. However, M2BPGi/albumin did not predict other cirrhotic complications and transplant-free survival.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

M2BPGi/albumin might serve as a potential prognostic indicator for patients with cirrhosis, particularly for predicting bacterial infections.

Mortality scoring systems for liver transplant recipients: before and after model for end-stage liver disease score

The mortality scoring systems for patients with end-stage liver disease have evolved from the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, affecting the wait list for liver allocation. There are inherent weaknesses in the MELD score, with the gradual decline in its accuracy owing to changes in patient demographics or treatment options. Continuous refinement of the MELD score is in progress; however, both advantages and disadvantages exist. Recently, attempts have been made to introduce artificial intelligence into mortality prediction; however, many challenges must still be overcome. More research is needed to improve the accuracy of mortality prediction in liver transplant recipients.

Portal vein thrombosis compromises the performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na) scores in reflecting the clinical outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of scores in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and PVT.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis was performed in two prospective cohorts (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872). The correlation between the MELD/MELD-Na score and 90-day liver transplantation (LT)-free mortality was investigated in patients with cirrhosis with and without PVT.

RESULTS

In this study, 2826 patients with cirrhosis were included, and 255 (9.02%) had PVT. The cumulative incidence of 90-day LT-free mortality did not significantly differ between patients with and without PVT (log-rank P = 0.0854). MELD [area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), 0.649 vs. 0.842; P = 0.0036] and MELD-Na scores (AUROC, 0.691 vs. 0.851; P = 0.0108) were compared in patients with and without PVT, regarding the prediction of 90-day LT-free mortality. In MELD < 15 and MELD-Na < 20 subgroups, patients with PVT had a higher 90-day LT-free mortality than those without PVT (7.91% vs. 2.64%, log-rank P = 0.0011; 7.14% vs. 3.43%, log-rank P = 0.0223), whereas in MELD ≥ 15 and MELD-Na ≥ 20 subgroups, no significant difference was observed between patients with and without PVT.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis was compromised by PVT. MELD < 15 or MELD-Na < 20 may underestimate the 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with PVT.

The Addition of C-Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We determined whether addition of vWF-Ag and CRP to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF-Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF-Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF-Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD-Na for 3-month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD-Na, 0.764; MELD-Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD-Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD-Na, 0.677; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.882). vWF-Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of vWF-Ag and CRP-reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT-to the MELD-Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg-CRP-MELD-Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality.

The von Willebrand Factor Facilitates Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Independent Risk Stratification on the Waiting List for Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used for clinical decision-making and organ allocation for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and was previously upgraded through inclusion of serum sodium (Na) concentrations (MELD-Na). However, MELD-Na may underestimate complications arising from portal hypertension or infection. The von Willebrand factor (vWF) antigen (vWF-Ag) correlates with portal pressure and seems capable of predicting complications in patients with cirrhosis. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate vWF-Ag as an adjunct surrogate marker for risk stratification on the waiting list for OLT.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Hence, WF-Ag at time of listing was assessed in patients listed for OLT. Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting-list survival was assessed by receiver operating characteristics and net reclassification improvement. Interestingly, patients dying within 3 months on the waiting list displayed elevated levels of vWF-Ag (P < 0.001). MELD-Na and vWF-Ag were comparable and independent in their predictive potential for 3-month mortality on the waiting list (area under the curve [AUC], vWF-Ag = 0.739; MELD-Na = 0.764). Importantly, a vWF-Ag cutoff at 413% identified patients at risk for death within 3 months of listing with a higher odds ratio (OR) than the previously published cutoff at a MELD-Na of 20 points (vWF-Ag, OR = 10.873, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.160, 36.084; MELD-Na, OR = 7.594, 95% CI, 2.578, 22.372; P < 0.001, respectively). Ultimately, inclusion of vWF-Ag into the MELD-Na equation significantly improved prediction of 3-month waiting-list mortality (AUC, MELD-Na-vWF = 0.804).

CONCLUSIONS

A single measurement of vWF-Ag at listing for OLT predicts early mortality. Combining vWF-Ag levels with MELD-Na improves risk stratification and may help to prioritize organ allocation to decrease waiting-list mortality.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio correlates with proinflammatory neutrophils and predicts death in low model for end-stage liver disease patients with cirrhosis

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has reduced accuracy for liver transplantation (LT) wait-list mortality when MELD ≤ 20. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a biomarker associated with systemic inflammation and may predict cirrhotic decompensation and death. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic utility of high NLR (≥4) for liver-related death among low MELD patients listed for LT, controlling for stage of cirrhosis. In a nested case-control study of cirrhotic adults awaiting LT (February 2002 to May 2011), cases were LT candidates with a liver-related death and MELD ≤ 20 within 90 days of death. Controls were similar LT candidates who were alive for ≥90 days after LT listing. NLR and other covariates were assessed at the date of lowest MELD, within 90 days of death for cases and within 90 days after listing for controls. There were 41 cases and 66 controls; MELD scores were similar. NLR 25th, 50th, 75th percentile cutoffs were 1.9, 3.1, and 6.8. NLR was ≥ 4 in 25/41 (61%) cases and in 17/66 (26%) controls. In univariate analysis, NLR (continuous ≥ 1.9, ≥ 4, ≥ 6.8), increasing cirrhosis stage, jaundice, encephalopathy, serum sodium, and albumin and nonselective beta-blocker use were significantly (P < 0.01) associated with liver-related death. In multivariate analysis, NLR of ≥1.9, ≥ 4, ≥ 6.8 were each associated with liver-related death. Furthermore, we found that NLR correlated with the frequency of circulating low-density granulocytes, previously identified as displaying proinflammatory properties, as well as monocytes. In conclusion, elevated NLR is associated with liver-related death, independent of MELD and cirrhosis stage. High NLR may aid in determining risk for cirrhotic decompensation, need for increased monitoring, and urgency for expedited LT in candidates with low MELD. Liver Transplantation 23 155-165 2017 AASLD.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and clinical significance of hyponatremia in cirrhotics have been well studied; however, there are limited data on hyperkalemia in cirrhotics.

AIM

We evaluated the prevalence and prognostic significance of hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and developed a prognostic model incorporating potassium for prediction of liver-related death in these patients.

METHODS

The training derivative cohort of patients was used for development of prognostic scores (Group A, n = 1160), which were validated in a large prospective cohort of cirrhotic patients. (Group B, n = 2681) of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Hyperkalemia was seen in 189 (14.1%) and 336 (12%) in Group A and Group B, respectively. Potassium showed a significant association that was direct with creatinine (P < 0.001) and urea (P < 0.001) and inverse with sodium (P < 0.001). Mortality was also significantly higher in patients with hyperkalemia (P = 0.0015, Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.57). Combination of all these parameters into a single value predictor, that is, renal dysfunction index predicted mortality better than the individual components. Combining renal dysfunction index with other known prognostic markers (i.e. serum bilirubin, INR, albumin, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites) in the "K" model predicted both short-term and long-term mortality with an excellent accuracy (Concordance-index 0.78 and 0.80 in training and validation cohorts, respectively). This was also superior to Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Model for End-stage liver disease sodium (MELDNa), and Child-Turcott-Pugh scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhotics frequently have impaired potassium homeostasis, which has a prognostic significance. Serum potassium correlates directly with serum creatinine and urea and inversely with serum sodium. The model incorporating serum potassium developed from this study ("K"model) can predict death in advanced cirrhotics with an excellent accuracy.

Impact of renal insufficiency on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Renal insufficiency (RI) is commonly seen in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to investigate the impact of RI on the long-term survival of HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and to determine the optimal staging strategy for these patients.

METHODS

RI was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) . A total of 123 and 344 patients with and without RI undergoing RFA, respectively, were enrolled. A one-to-one propensity score matching analysis with preset caliper width was performed. The prognostic ability of four currently used staging systems was compared by the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

HCC patients with RI undergoing RFA were older (P < 0.001) and had significantly different baseline characteristics. Of all patients, RI was significantly associated with a decreased long-term survival (P = 0.03). After matching in the propensity model, the baseline characteristics were similar between patients with (n = 92) and without (n = 92) RI. In the propensity model, RI was not significantly associated with a shortened survival (P = 0.273). In the Cox multivariate analysis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B or C was identified as the only independent predictor of poor prognosis. Among patients with RI undergoing RFA, the Taipei Integrated Scoring (TIS) system provided the highest homogeneity and lowest AIC value among the currently used staging systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term survival of HCC patients undergoing RFA is not affected by RI. The TIS staging system may provide a better prognostic prediction for HCC patients with RI undergoing RFA.

Stage of cirrhosis predicts the risk of liver-related death in patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores and cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has reduced predictive ability in patients with cirrhosis and MELD scores ≤ 20. We aimed to assess whether a 5-stage clinical model could identify liver transplantation (LT) candidates with low MELD scores who are at increased risk for death. We conducted a case-control study of subjects with cirrhosis and MELD scores ≤ 20 who were awaiting LT at a single academic medical center between February 2002 and May 2011. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the risk of liver-related death according to the cirrhosis stage. We identified 41 case subjects who died from liver-related causes with MELD scores ≤ 20 within 90 days of death while they were waiting for LT. The cases were matched with up to 3 controls (66 controls in all) on the basis of the listing year, age, sex, liver disease etiology, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and MELD score. The cirrhosis stage was assessed for all subjects: (1) no varices or ascites, (2) varices, (3) variceal bleeding, (4) ascites, and (5) ascites and variceal bleeding. The MELD scores were similar for cases and controls. Clinical states contributing to death in cases were: sepsis 49%, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 15%, variceal bleeding 24%, and hepatorenal syndrome 22%. In a univariate analysis, variceal bleeding [odds ratio (OR) = 5.6, P = 0.003], albumin (OR = 0.5, P = 0.041), an increasing cirrhosis stage (P = 0.003), reaching cirrhosis stage 2, 3, or 4 versus lower stages (OR = 3.6, P = 0.048; OR = 7.4, P < 0.001; and OR = 4.1, P = 0.008), a sodium level < 135 mmol/L (OR = 3.4, P = 0.006), and hepatic encephalopathy (OR = 2.3, P = 0.082) were associated with liver-related death. In a multivariate model including the cirrhosis stage, albumin, sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy, an increasing cirrhosis stage (P = 0.010) was independently associated with liver-related death. In conclusion, assessing the cirrhosis stage in patients with low MELD scores awaiting LT may help to select candidates for more aggressive monitoring or for living or extended criteria donation.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and liver cirrhosis-related complications

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has gained wide acceptance for predicting survival in patients undergoing liver transplantation. The strength of this score remains in the mathematical formula derived from a multivariate Cox regression analysis; it is a continuous scale and lacks a ceiling or a floor effect with a wide range of discrimination. It is based on objective, reproducible, and readily available laboratory data and the wide range of samples which have been validated. Liver cirrhosis complications such as ascites, encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal bleeding were not considered in the MELD score underestimating their direct association with the severity of liver disease. In this regard, several recent studies have shown that clinical manifestations secondary to portal hypertension are good prognostic markers in cirrhotic patients and may add additional useful prognostic information to the current MELD. We review the feasibility of MELD score as a prognostic predictor in patients with liver cirrhosis-related complications.

Differential prognostic impact of renal insufficiency on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a propensity score analysis and staging strategy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Renal insufficiency (RI) can coexist in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study analyzed the prognostic impact of RI on patients with HCC and determined the optimal staging strategy for these patients.

METHODS

RI was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A total of 502 and 1701 HCC patients with and without RI, respectively, were enrolled. One-to-one matched patient cohorts according to treatments were built by using the propensity model. The prognostic ability of the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Japan Integrated Scoring, and Taipei Integrated Scoring (TIS) systems in HCC patients with RI was compared by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

For patients undergoing percutaneous ablation and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), RI was significantly associated with decreased long-term survival (P = 0.001 and 0.004, respectively). In patients receiving resection and other treatments, there were no significant survival differences between patients with and without RI. With similar demographics generated in the propensity model, significantly decreased survival was found in patients with RI in the TACE group (P = 0.018), but not in the resection, percutaneous ablation, and other treatment groups. Among HCC patients with RI, the TIS system had the lowest AIC value.

CONCLUSIONS

RI is often present in patients with HCC and predicts a poor outcome in patients undergoing TACE. The survival of HCC patients receiving resection, percutaneous ablation, and other treatments is not affected by RI. The TIS staging system is a more feasible prognostic model for HCC patients with RI.

Comparison of cancer care for hepatocellular carcinoma at two tertiary-care referral centers from high and low endemic regions for viral hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have geographic variability but differences in care have not been described. We reviewed the presentation, management, and outcomes of HCC patients from two tertiary-referral centers in Central Saudi Arabia and Atlantic Canada during 1997-2002.

METHODS

Data were extracted from health records of 96 Saudi and 80 Canadian consecutive patients with HCC.

RESULTS

Mean age (± SEM) of the two groups were similar (64 + 1 and 65 + 1 years) with 93% versus 75% males amongst Canadian and Saudi patients, respectively. In Canada, underlying disease was alcohol-related cirrhosis (45%), cryptogenic cirrhosis (26%), or hepatitis C (13%). For Saudis, HCC cases were attributed to hepatitis C (47%), cryptogenic cirrhosis (27%), and hepatitis B (21%). At initial presentation, Saudi patients had more vascular invasion and distant metastases while Canadians had more advanced liver disease. The tumor-specific prognostic classifications were comparable. Due to center-specific expertise or preference, symptomatic treatment was more common amongst Saudi patients (83% versus 42%) while more Canadians underwent local palliative interventions (52% versus 12%). Frequency of potentially curative therapies including resection and transplantation were similar at both centers. There was no difference in overall median survival (14 versus 10 months) amongst Canadian and Saudi patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This study validates divergence in HCC presentation between low and high endemic regions for viral hepatitis. In addition, for the first time, differences in cancer care of HCC are documented.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

The MELD score in patients awaiting liver transplant: strengths and weaknesses

Adoption of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) to select and prioritize patients for liver transplantation represented a turning point in organ allocation. Prioritization of transplant recipients switched from time accrued on the waiting list to the principle of "sickest first". The MELD score incorporates three simple laboratory parameters (serum creatinine and bilirubin, and INR for prothrombin time) and stratifies patients according to their disease severity in an objective and continuous ranking scale. Concordance statistics have demonstrated its high accuracy in stratifying patients according to their risk of dying in the short-term (three months). Further validations of MELD as a predictor of survival at various temporal end-points have been obtained in independent patient cohorts with a broad spectrum of chronic liver disease. The MELD-based liver graft allocation policy has led to a reduction in waitlist new registrations and mortality, shorter waiting times, and an increase in transplants, without altering overall graft and patient survival rates after transplantation. MELD limitations are related either to the inter-laboratory variability of the parameters included in the score, or to the inability of the formula to predict mortality accurately in specific settings. For some conditions, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, widely accepted MELD corrections have been devised. For others, such as persistent ascites and hyponatremia, attempts to improve MELD's predicting power are currently underway, but await definite validation.

Transarterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and renal insufficiency

BACKGROUND

Renal dysfunction is often present in patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Acute renal failure (ARF) may occur after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) owing to radiocontrast agent. This study investigated the incidence and risk factors of ARF and prognostic predictors in HCC patients with preexisting renal insufficiency undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 566 HCC patients undergoing TACE were enrolled. Renal insufficiency was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m.

RESULTS

In a mean follow-up duration of 18+/-16 months, 231 (40.8%) patients undergoing TACE died. Renal insufficiency that was present in 134 (23.7%) patients at baseline, independently predicted a poor prognosis in the Cox proportional hazards model [risk ratio (RR): 1.47, P=0.012]. Of them, 13 (10%) and 6 (5%) patients had transient and prolonged ARF after TACE, respectively. Post-TACE gastrointestinal bleeding [odds ratio (OR): 16.54, P=0.001] and higher Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) scores (> or =2; OR: 4.22, P=0.02) were independent risk factors for ARF in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the Cox model, prolonged ARF (RR: 3.28, P<0.001) and higher CLIP scores (> or =2; RR: 2.13, P<0.001) were independent poor prognostic predictors for HCC patients with renal insufficiency receiving TACE.

CONCLUSIONS

Gastrointestinal bleeding and higher CLIP scores are associated with the development of ARF in patients with HCC and renal insufficiency undergoing TACE. Higher CLIP scores and renal insufficiency, either preexisting before TACE or as a complication of TACE, are poor prognostic predictors in HCC patients receiving TACE.

Selecting an optimal staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of 5 currently used prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Selecting an appropriate staging system is crucial to predict the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The optimal prognostic model for HCC is under intense debate. This study investigated the prognostic ability of the 5 currently used staging systems, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS) system, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), and Tokyo score, for HCC.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2008, 1713 prospectively enrolled HCC patients were compared for their long-term survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) according to the staging or scoring methods of these 5 models.

RESULTS

The mean and median follow-up duration was 18 and 14 months, respectively. Among all patients, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value in comparison with other systems in the Cox proportional hazards model, followed by the Tokyo score, JIS score, BCLC staging system, and TNM staging system. Patients undergoing curative treatment had a significantly better survival in comparison with patients undergoing noncurative treatment (P < .001). When the predictive accuracy of the staging systems was analyzed according to treatment strategy, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value and remained the best prognostic model in patients undergoing curative (801 patients) and noncurative (912 patients) treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP staging system is the best long-term prognostic model for HCC in a cohort of patient with early to advanced stage of HCC. Its predictive accuracy is independent of the treatment strategy. Selecting an optimal staging system is helpful in improving the design of future clinical trials.

A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma based on total tumor volume: the Taipei Integrated Scoring System

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The currently used staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not satisfactory. The optimal prognostic model for HCC is still under intense debate. This study aimed to propose a new staging system for HCC based on total tumor volume (TTV) and to compare it with the currently used systems.

METHODS

A total of 2030 HCC patients undergoing different treatment strategies were retrospectively analyzed. TTV was defined as the sum of the volume of each tumor [(4/3)x3.14x(radius of tumor in cm)(3)]. The discriminatory ability of the TTV-based staging system and the four current systems, including the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Staging system, and Tokyo system, was examined by comparing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A higher TTV correlated well with the decreased survival in HCC patients (p<0.001). Among the 12 TTV-based staging systems, the TTV-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP)-alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) combination provided the lowest AIC value. The TTV-CTP-AFP model consistently showed a better prognostic ability in comparison to the current four staging systems. In 936 HCC patients receiving curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provided the second best predictive accuracy following the CLIP score. Alternatively, in 1094 patients undergoing non-curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model exhibited the smallest AIC value.

CONCLUSIONS

TTV may be a feasible tumoral prognostic predictor for HCC. In this single-hospital study that included patients with early to advanced cancer stages, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provides the best prognostic ability among 12 TTV-based and currently used staging systems.

Renal failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and ascites undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Ascites is often present in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with cirrhosis. Advanced cirrhosis may predispose to renal dysfunction. Acute renal failure (ARF) may occur after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for HCC because of radiocontrast agents. This study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of ARF and prognostic predictors in HCC patients with ascites undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 591 HCC patients receiving TACE were enrolled.

RESULTS

In a mean follow-up duration of 19+/-17 months, 239 (40.4%) patients undergoing TACE died. Ascites, which was present in 91 (15.4%) patients at entry, independently predicted a poor prognosis in the Cox proportional hazard model [risk ratio (RR): 1.71, P=0.002]. Of these, 11 (12.6%) of 87 patients with complete follow-up developed ARF after TACE. Serum albumin level <3.3 g/dl (odds ratio: 7.3, P=0.009) was the only independent risk factor associated with ARF in the logistic regression analysis. ARF (RR: 2.17, P=0.036), alpha-fetoprotein >400 ng/ml (RR: 1.84, P=0.04), multiple tumours (RR: 2.11, P=0.013), tumour size > or = 5 cm (RR: 2.32, P=0.006) and serum sodium level <139 mmol/L (RR: 2.4, P=0.005) were independent poor prognostic predictors for HCC patients with ascites receiving TACE.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-existing ascites is associated with increased mortality in HCC patients receiving TACE. In HCC patients with ascites, hypoalbuminaemia is associated with the occurrence of post-TACE ARF. Post-TACE ARF is a poor prognostic predictor in this subset of HCC patients.

Major adverse events, pretransplant assessment and outcome prediction

Liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension pose enormous loss of lives and resources throughout the world, especially in endemic areas of chronic viral hepatitis. Although the pathophysiology of cirrhosis is not completely understood, the accumulating evidence has paved the way for better control of the complications, including gastroesophageal variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatopulmonary syndrome and portopulmonary hypertension. Modern pharmacological and interventional therapies have been designed to treat these complications. However, liver transplantation (LT) is the only definite treatment for patients with preterminal end-stage liver disease. To pursue successful LT, the meticulous evaluation of potential recipients and donors is pivotal, especially for living donor transplantation. The critical shortage of cadaveric donor livers is another concern. In many Asian countries, cultural and religious concerns further limit the number of the donors, which lags far behind that of the recipients. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system has recently become the prevailing criterion for organ allocation. Initial results showed clear benefits of moving from the Child-Turcotte-Pugh-based system toward the MELD-based organ allocation system. In addition to the MELD, serum sodium is another important prognostic predictor in patients with advanced cirrhosis. The incorporation of serum sodium into the MELD could enhance the performance of the MELD and could become an indispensable strategy in refining the priority for LT. However, the feasibility of the MELD in combination with sodium in predicting the outcome for patients on transplant waiting list awaits actual outcome data before this becomes standard practice in the Asia-Pacific region.

Allocation priority in non-urgent liver transplantation: An overview of proposed scoring systems

Given the lack of donors, a correct organ allocation system for candidates to liver transplantation is essential to increase graft and patient survival. The most used organ allocation tools are Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease. It is generally accepted that model for end-stage liver disease score is superior to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification in predicting the short-term survival of cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Since 2002, model for end-stage liver disease is widely used for liver allocation. In recent years, to overcome limitations of the consolidated scores, some adjustments to the original model for end-stage liver disease formula and new scoring systems have been proposed. Published data suggest that integrating serum sodium and model for end-stage liver disease may improve the score prognostic accuracy but further studies are necessary to confirm this issue. The updated model for end-stage liver disease, obtained through a revision of traditional model for end-stage liver disease parameters and tested in a large cohort of patients, is of great interest at the moment. In conclusion, several scoring systems have been described for organ allocation, but today, none is definitely able to overcome the limitations of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease systems.

Ascites and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: an Asian perspective

Ascites is the most common complication of liver cirrhosis, and it develops as a consequence of portal hypertension and splanchnic vasodilatation. Depending on severity, management of ascites consists of diverse strategy, including dietary sodium restriction, diuretic therapy, repeated large-volume paracentesis with albumin infusion, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and liver transplantation. Recently, advances in medical therapy have been made with satavaptan, a V2 receptor antagonist, vasoconstrictors, such as clonidine, midodrine, or terlipressin, and other categories of drugs, including docarpamine and Chinese herbs. These drugs may serve as useful adjuncts to conventional diuretics in the management of ascites. Besides ascites itself, serious complications, such as spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and hepatorenal syndrome, frequently ensue in decompensated cirrhosis. SBP develops from the translocation of bacteria from the intestine, and successful management with early diagnosis and treatment with proper prevention in patients of high risk is necessary. In summary, ascites is a starting point for more serious complications in liver cirrhosis. Although liver transplantation is the fundamental treatment, it is not always feasible, and consequently various means of treatment should be used. Further study, particularly in Asia where hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis is predominant, is warranted to improve the clinical outcome.

In-hospital mortality in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a new predictive model

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhotics with ascites. Early identification of high-risk patients is crucial for prognostic improvement. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) relies on a few objective variables and predicts short-term survival. We aimed to determine the predictive value of MELD score, at admission, in the short-term mortality of SBP patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of 73 SBP episodes admitted in our department between January 2002 and April 2006. Diagnosis (neutrophil count in ascitic fluid >or=250/mm3) was established within 24 h and cefotaxime was immediately started. Data collected included age, sex, etiology of liver disease, severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, serum creatinine, total bilirubin and albumin, prothrombin time with international normalized ratio, and ascitic fluid analysis.

STATISTICS

Student's t-test, chi2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression model, and receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality rate was 37%. In multivariate analysis, MELD score (P<0.001), and advanced age (P<0.05) were independent predictors of mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve for MELD score revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict death, with an area under curve of 0.84. Age increased the predictive ability of MELD score, represented by an increment of area under curve to 0.88.

CONCLUSION

MELD score and older age were independent predictors of mortality. Age increased the discriminatory ability of MELD score to predict death. This new model may be useful for stratifying patients in future therapeutic trials, deserving further validation.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score system to evaluate patients with viral hepatitis on the waiting list: better than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system?

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), based on creatinine, bilirubin, and International normalized ratio (INR), has been shown to be superior to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score in predicting 3-month mortality among patients on the transplant waiting list due to end-stage liver disease (ESLD). An additional advantage of MELD is the possibility to add "adjustment points" for exceptional patients at risk for death because of liver disease not identified by changes in the used parameters, as occurs in the case of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although it is useful, MELD has some important limitations: There are no differences for patients with or without ascites, and for the absence of other laboratory parameters involved in the etiology of disease. In this study, we evaluated dropouts of patients on the waiting list for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) based upon the characteristics of these subjects before and after introduction of the MELD score.

METHODS

All patients on the OLT waiting list from June 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007 were enrolled in the MELD group (A) and evaluated with CHILD and MELD score, while those listed from January 1, 2004 to May 31, 2005 were enrolled in pre-MELD group (B) to be evaluated with CHILD. In these subjects we assessed the drop out frequency and waiting time and we compared the results to assess possible differences (U Mann-Whitney Test; P<.05).

RESULTS

The total number of patients included in this study was 176: 116 patients in Group A and 60 in Group B. We had a drop-out frequency of 21% with a median of 9+/-6 S.E. months in Group A, while 9% with a median of 15+/-8 months S.E. in Group B. The dropout frequencies were as follows: Group A--16 deaths (1 HCC--15 disease complications) while in Group B we had 13 drop outs, 10 exitus (4 HCC and 6 disease complications) and three exclusions for nonmedical reasons. In Group A we had a higher number of deaths due to disease complications than in group B (P<.05). Further, we had 32 OLTx in Group A and 45 in Group B. Survival rate did not show any differences between the two groups while number needed to harm was 11.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of MELD score in this group of patients produced an advantage for HCC, but seemed to cutoff patients with viral hepatitis complications during the waiting time. Particularly, about one in every 11 patients may receive an harm using this score system. Other parameters should be introduced as adjustment points to make the MELD score suitable also for patients with infectious liver diseases.

Selecting an optimal prognostic system for liver cirrhosis: the model for end-stage liver disease and beyond

In comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, recent studies suggested that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) may more accurately predict the survival for patients with cirrhosis. In the US, the liver allocation system was changed in 2002 from a status-based algorithm utilizing CTP scores to one using continuous MELD severity scores as a reference system in prioritizing adult patients on the waiting list. Direct evidence that demonstrates the benefits of MELD is the fact that the mortality rates of transplant candidates on the waiting list have remarkably decreased after the implementation of the MELD. The MELD score is closely associated with the degree of portal hypertension as reflected by the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Hyponatraemia occurs as a result of advanced cirrhosis, and a serum sodium (Na) level <126 mEq/L at the time of listing for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Several MELD-derived prognostic models that incorporate serum Na into calculation have been proposed in the hopes of further improving the MELD's prognostic accuracy. Additionally, serum parameters such as creatinine and international normalized ratio are subject to interlaboratory variations and may need unifying standartisations. Patients with refractory complications of cirrhosis may need a priority MELD score to prioritize them on the waiting list. Appropriate modifications and the fine-tuning of the MELD based on well-designed prospective studies are necessary in solving the current controversial issues.

Lasting amelioration in the clinical course of decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis with boost infusions of mobilized peripheral blood stem cells

For end-stage liver disease, liver transplantation provides the only definite cure; however, many patients die while in the waiting list for donation. Various stem cell populations have been described to contribute to liver regeneration and there is accumulating evidence for the participation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in this process. We here report two cases treated with boost infusions of autologous mobilized HSCs to regenerate cirrhotic liver. The procedure was safe and well tolerated. Both patients showed a lasting amelioration in the clinical course of the disease during the 30 months of follow-up. These results suggest that the procedure may be considered in a clinical study setting as a bridging therapy until organ transplantation becomes available or to reverse a decompensated cirrhosis to a compensated one. Additional studies in this area will be required to document efficacy and evaluate toxicity.

Algorithm for Prioritization of Patients on the Waiting List for Liver Transplantation

Prioritization of patients on the waiting list (WL) for OLT is still a critical issue. Numerous models have been developed to predict mortality before and after OLT.

AIM

The aim of the study was to prospectively evaluate cirrhotics with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) severity of liver disease on the WL and at transplant, mortality on the WL and after OLT, and their correlations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An algorithm based on seven patient variables (MELD, CTP, UNOS, HCC, BMI, waiting time, age) was created by software dedicated to prioritize patients on the waiting list.

RESULTS

We evaluated 118 patients including 75 men and 43 women of age range 19 to 66 years, who underwent OLT from July 2004 to June 2006. Mean CTP and MELD at listing were 8.44 (range 6-12) and 13 (range 2-24), respectively. Overall mortality on the WL at 24 months was 13%, which was significantly higher among patients with MELD > 25 compared to patients with MELD 0 to 15 (P < .0001) or MELD 16 to 25 (P = .0007) at listing. Mean MELD at OLT was 15 (range 7-36), which was significantly lower in patients with than without HCC (MELD 12 vs 16; P = .0003). Six hundred-day patient survival was significantly lower among patients with MELD > 25 compared to patients with MELD < 25 at OLT (P = .017), whereas no difference in survival was observed between patients with and without HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The sickest patients are characterized by high mortality both on the waiting list and after liver transplantation. Patients with HCC are transplanted in better condition compared to patients without HCC with the same survival.

Model for end-stage liver disease score to serum sodium ratio index as a prognostic predictor and its correlation with portal pressure in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The models for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and serum sodium (SNa) are important prognostic markers in cirrhosis. A novel index, MELD to SNa ratio (MESO), was developed to amplify the opposing effect of MELD and SNa on outcome prediction.

METHODS

A total of 213 cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

The MESO index correlated with HVPG (r=0.258, P<0.001) and Child-Pugh score (rho=0.749, P<0.001). Using mortality as the end point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.860 for SNa, 0.795 for the MESO index and 0.789 for MELD (P values all >0.3) at 3 months. Among patients with Child-Pugh class A or B, the MESO index had a significantly higher AUC compared with MELD (0.80 vs. 0.766, P<0.001). A MESO index <1.6 identified 97% of patients who survived at 3 months and the predicted survival rate was 96.5%. In survival analysis, MESO index >1.6 independently predicted a higher mortality rate (relative risk: 3.32, P<0001) using the Cox model.

CONCLUSIONS

The MESO index, which takes into account the predictive power of both MELD and SNa, is a useful prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term survival in cirrhotic patients.

Selección de candidatos para trasplante hepático

Liver transplantation is the treatment of choice in acute and irreversible chronic liver failure of distinct etiologies. Because of the current shortage of donor organs, careful selection of candidates for transplantation is required. In addition to specific prognostic models, there are general models, such as the Child-Pugh classification and the MELD system, which are useful in determining the optimal timing of liver transplantation in most patients with cirrhosis. Once the need for transplantation has been determined and the possibility of other available therapeutic measures has been ruled out, a multidisciplinary evaluation should be performed to assess the patient's suitability for this procedure. This evaluation must rule out the presence of medical, surgical or psychological factors that could compromise patient or graft survival, making transplantation futile. The present review analyzes the most frequent contraindications to transplantation, as well as the most important aspects of pretransplantation evaluation.

Model for end-stage liver disease and organ allocation in liver transplantation: where are we and where should we go?

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score has been used for decades to measure the severity of chronic liver disease. Recent studies have shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) more accurately predicts the short- and mid-term survival for patients with cirrhosis compared to the CTP system. MELD, which has 3 parameters (serum bilirubin, creatinine, and prothrombin time) that need logarithmic transformation, has the advantage of a wide-range continuous scale and is more objective and less variable. The liver allocation system has changed from a status-based algorithm using the CTP score, to one using a continuous MELD severity score as a reference system to prioritize adult patients on the waiting list since 2002 in the USA. However, there are potential limitations of MELD. An intrinsic defect is that some important parameters, such as hepatic encephalopathy and ascites, which are common adverse complications in cirrhosis, are not included in MELD. It has been suggested to incorporate a low serum sodium level into the prognostic model to enhance the predictive ability. Moreover, the change of MELD over time may provide updated information for patients on the transplant waiting list. In summary, although there was encouraging evidence supporting the prognostic advantage of MELD, the optimal role of MELD in the setting of outcome assessment for cirrhotic patients needs more study. Appropriate modifications and fine tuning of MELD are necessary for determining the ranking status of patients on the waiting list, to avoid a futile transplantation and improve overall patient survival.