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Lepak JM, Hansen AG, Cristan ET, Williams DA, Pate WM. Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) influence on walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment decline: mtDNA evidence supporting the predation hypothesis. JOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY 2023; 103:1543-1548. [PMID: 37551915 DOI: 10.1111/jfb.15523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) have been introduced widely but are associated with declines in walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment. A primary hypothesis for these declines is that O. mordax consume larval S. vitreus. We confirmed overlapping spatial-temporal distributions of larval S. vitreus and O. mordax in our study system and used mtDNA analyses to determine if O. mordax stomach contents contained S. vitreus. Approximately 20% of O. mordax composite stomach samples were considered positive for S. vitreus consumption. These findings support the predation hypothesis and have S. vitreus management/stocking implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse M Lepak
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Aquatic Research Section, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Adam G Hansen
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Aquatic Research Section, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Erik T Cristan
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Aquatic Research Section, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Demetra A Williams
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Aquatic Research Section, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - William M Pate
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Aquatic Research Section, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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2
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Florko KRN, Tai TC, Cheung WWL, Ferguson SH, Sumaila UR, Yurkowski DJ, Auger-Méthé M. Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2563-2575. [PMID: 34469020 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie R N Florko
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Travis C Tai
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Steven H Ferguson
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David J Yurkowski
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Marie Auger-Méthé
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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3
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Introduced European smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) affects food web and fish community in a large Norwegian lake. Biol Invasions 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-018-1806-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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4
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Lyons SK, Miller JH, Fraser D, Smith FA, Boyer A, Lindsey E, Mychajliw AM. The changing role of mammal life histories in Late Quaternary extinction vulnerability on continents and islands. Biol Lett 2017; 12:rsbl.2016.0342. [PMID: 27330176 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2016] [Accepted: 05/31/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding extinction drivers in a human-dominated world is necessary to preserve biodiversity. We provide an overview of Quaternary extinctions and compare mammalian extinction events on continents and islands after human arrival in system-specific prehistoric and historic contexts. We highlight the role of body size and life-history traits in these extinctions. We find a significant size-bias except for extinctions on small islands in historic times. Using phylogenetic regression and classification trees, we find that while life-history traits are poor predictors of historic extinctions, those associated with difficulty in responding quickly to perturbations, such as small litter size, are good predictors of prehistoric extinctions. Our results are consistent with the idea that prehistoric and historic extinctions form a single continuing event with the same likely primary driver, humans, but the diversity of impacts and affected faunas is much greater in historic extinctions.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Kathleen Lyons
- Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA
| | - Joshua H Miller
- Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, USA
| | - Danielle Fraser
- Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA
| | - Felisa A Smith
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001, USA
| | - Alison Boyer
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, TN 37831, USA
| | - Emily Lindsey
- Department of Integrative Biology, U.C. Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, USA
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5
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A Framework for Evaluating Heterogeneity and Landscape-Level Impacts of Non-native Aquatic Species. Ecosystems 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-016-0102-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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6
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Bajer PG, Parker JE, Cross TK, Venturelli PA, Sorensen PW. Partial migration to seasonally-unstable habitat facilitates biological invasions in a predator-dominated system. OIKOS 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Przemyslaw G. Bajer
- Dept of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology; Univ. of Minnesota; 135 Skok Hall 2003 upper Buford Circle, St. Paul MN 55108 USA
| | - James E. Parker
- Dept of Computer Science and Engineering; Univ. of Minnesota; 200 Union Street Minneapolis MN 55455 USA
| | - Timothy K. Cross
- Minnesota Dept of Natural Resources; Fisheries Research; 20596 Hwy 7 Hutchinson MN 55350 USA
| | - Paul A. Venturelli
- Dept of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology; Univ. of Minnesota; 135 Skok Hall 2003 upper Buford Circle, St. Paul MN 55108 USA
| | - Peter W. Sorensen
- Dept of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology; Univ. of Minnesota; 135 Skok Hall 2003 upper Buford Circle, St. Paul MN 55108 USA
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Hansen GJA, Vander Zanden MJ, Blum MJ, Clayton MK, Hain EF, Hauxwell J, Izzo M, Kornis MS, McIntyre PB, Mikulyuk A, Nilsson E, Olden JD, Papeş M, Sharma S. Commonly rare and rarely common: comparing population abundance of invasive and native aquatic species. PLoS One 2013; 8:e77415. [PMID: 24194883 PMCID: PMC3806751 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2013] [Accepted: 09/03/2013] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Invasive species are leading drivers of environmental change. Their impacts are often linked to their population size, but surprisingly little is known about how frequently they achieve high abundances. A nearly universal pattern in ecology is that species are rare in most locations and abundant in a few, generating right-skewed abundance distributions. Here, we use abundance data from over 24,000 populations of 17 invasive and 104 native aquatic species to test whether invasive species differ from native counterparts in statistical patterns of abundance across multiple sites. Invasive species on average reached significantly higher densities than native species and exhibited significantly higher variance. However, invasive and native species did not differ in terms of coefficient of variation, skewness, or kurtosis. Abundance distributions of all species were highly right skewed (skewness>0), meaning both invasive and native species occurred at low densities in most locations where they were present. The average abundance of invasive and native species was 6% and 2%, respectively, of the maximum abundance observed within a taxonomic group. The biological significance of the differences between invasive and native species depends on species-specific relationships between abundance and impact. Recognition of cross-site heterogeneity in population densities brings a new dimension to invasive species management, and may help to refine optimal prevention, containment, control, and eradication strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gretchen J. A. Hansen
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - M. Jake Vander Zanden
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Michael J. Blum
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Murray K. Clayton
- Departments of Plant Pathology and Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Ernie F. Hain
- Department of Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Hauxwell
- Science Services, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Marit Izzo
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Matthew S. Kornis
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Peter B. McIntyre
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Alison Mikulyuk
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Science Services, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Erika Nilsson
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Julian D. Olden
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Monica Papeş
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Sapna Sharma
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
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Kornis MS, Sharma S, Jake Vander Zanden M. Invasion success and impact of an invasive fish, round goby, in Great Lakes tributaries. DIVERS DISTRIB 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew S. Kornis
- Center for Limnology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; 680 N. Park Street; Madison; WI; 53706; USA
| | - Sapna Sharma
- Center for Limnology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; 680 N. Park Street; Madison; WI; 53706; USA
| | - M. Jake Vander Zanden
- Center for Limnology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; 680 N. Park Street; Madison; WI; 53706; USA
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Gaeta JW, Read JS, Kitchell JF, Carpenter SR. Eradication via destratification: whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2012; 22:817-827. [PMID: 22645813 DOI: 10.1890/11-1227.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Invasive species can have severe effects on aquatic ecosystems. After invasions occur, eradication should be considered whenever the potential loss of ecosystem services outweighs the cost of the eradication method. Here we evaluate the possibility of destratifying Crystal Lake, Wisconsin, USA, to eradicate the invasive fish rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We modeled the effects of three destratification scenarios (non-, low-, and high-mixing) using both physical and biological models. Field observations were used to calibrate the models. Water temperatures estimated from 18 unique DYRESM simulations were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate growth of five age classes of rainbow smelt under normal and destratified conditions. Our simulations indicate that destratification can eliminate optimal rainbow smelt thermal habitat resulting in mortality. Destratified lake temperatures also surpassed several physiological critical temperatures. Bioenergetics simulations predicted a weight loss of 45-55% in yearling and adult rainbow smelt. We found that destratification is potentially effective for eradicating cold-water species in temperate lakes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jereme W Gaeta
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
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Olden JD, Vander Zanden MJ, Johnson PTJ. Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to invasive rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus). ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2011; 21:2587-2599. [PMID: 22073646 DOI: 10.1890/10-2051.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Despite the widespread introduction of nonnative species and the heterogeneity of ecosystems in their sensitivity to ecological impacts, few studies have assessed ecosystem vulnerability to the entire invasion process, from arrival to establishment and impacts. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting a probabilistic, spatially explicit approach to predicting ecosystem vulnerability to species invasions. Using the freshwater-rich landscapes of Wisconsin, USA, we model invasive rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) as a function of exposure risk (i.e., likelihood of introduction and establishment of O. rusticus based on a species distribution model) and the sensitivity of the recipient community (i.e., likelihood of impacts on native O. virilis and O. propinquus based on a retrospective analysis of population changes). Artificial neural networks predicted that approximately 10% of 4200 surveyed lakes (n = 388) and approximately 25% of mapped streams (23 523 km total length) are suitable for O. rusticus introduction and establishment. A comparison of repeated surveys before vs. post-1985 revealed that O. virilis was six times as likely and O. propinquus was twice as likely to be extirpated in streams invaded by O. rusticus, compared to streams that were not invaded. Similarly, O. virilis was extirpated in over three-quarters of lakes invaded by O. rusticus compared to half of the uninvaded lakes, whereas no difference was observed for O. propinquus. We identified 115 lakes (approximately 3% of lakes) and approximately 5000 km of streams (approximately 6% of streams) with a 25% chance of introduction, establishment, and extirpation by O. rusticus of either native congener. By identifying highly vulnerable ecosystems, our study offers an effective strategy for prioritizing on-the-ground management action and informing decisions about the most efficient allocation of resources. Moreover, our results provide the flexibility for stakeholders to identify priority sites for prevention efforts given a maximum level of acceptable risk or based on budgetary or time restrictions. To this end, we incorporate the model predictions into a new online mapping tool with the intention of closing the communication gap between academic research and stakeholders that requires information on the prospects of future invasions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julian D Olden
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA.
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11
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12
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Sharma S, Vander Zanden MJ, Magnuson JJ, Lyons J. Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations. PLoS One 2011; 6:e22906. [PMID: 21860661 PMCID: PMC3157906 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2011] [Accepted: 06/30/2011] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sapna Sharma
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
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13
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Kulhanek SA, Leung B, Ricciardi A. Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species: application to the common carp. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2011; 21:203-13. [PMID: 21516898 DOI: 10.1890/09-1639.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
In order to efficiently manage nonindigenous species (NIS), predictive tools are needed to prioritize locations where they are likely to become established and where their impacts will be most severe. While predicting the impact of a NIS has generally proved challenging, forecasting its abundance patterns across potential recipient locations should serve as a useful surrogate method of estimating the relative severity of the impacts to be expected. Yet such approaches have rarely been applied in invasion biology. We used long-term monitoring data for lakes within the state of Minnesota and artificial neural networks to model both the occurrence as well as the abundance of a widespread aquatic NIS, common carp (Cyprinus carpio). We then tested the ability of the resulting models to (1) interpolate to new sites within our main study region, (2) extrapolate to lakes in the neighboring state of South Dakota, and (3) assessed the relative contribution of each variable to model predictions. Our models correctly identified over 83% of sites where carp are either present or absent and explained 73% of the variation in carp abundance for validation lakes in Minnesota (i.e., lakes not used to build the model). When extrapolated to South Dakota, our models correctly classified carp occurrence in 79% of lakes and explained 32% of the variation in carp abundance. Variables related to climate and water quality were found to be the most important predictors of carp distribution. These results demonstrate that ecological niche-based modeling techniques can be used to forecast both the occurrence and abundance patterns of invasive species at a regional scale. Models also yielded sensible predictions when extrapolated to neighboring regions. Such predictions, when combined, should provide more useful estimates of the overall risk posed by NIS on potential recipient systems.
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Solomon CT, Roth BM, Hrabik TR, Vander Zanden MJ. Comparing energetic and dynamic descriptions of a single food web linkage. OIKOS 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18424.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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15
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Distribution and community-level effects of the Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in northern Wisconsin lakes. Biol Invasions 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-009-9572-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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16
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Cordell JR, Tear LM, Bollens SM. Modelling physico-chemical factors affecting occurrences of a non-indigenous planktonic copepod in northeast Pacific estuaries. Biol Invasions 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-009-9558-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Dullinger S, Kleinbauer I, Peterseil J, Smolik M, Essl F. Niche based distribution modelling of an invasive alien plant: effects of population status, propagule pressure and invasion history. Biol Invasions 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-009-9424-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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Lee H, Reusser DA, Olden JD, Smith SS, Graham J, Burkett V, Dukes JS, Piorkowski RJ, McPhedran J. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2008; 22:575-584. [PMID: 18577087 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00955.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henry Lee
- Western Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2111 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA.
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Olden J, Lawler J, Poff N. Machine Learning Methods Without Tears: A Primer for Ecologists. QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BIOLOGY 2008; 83:171-93. [DOI: 10.1086/587826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 460] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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Rahel FJ, Olden JD. Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2008; 22:521-33. [PMID: 18577081 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00950.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 318] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank J Rahel
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
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Rodríguez JP, Brotons L, Bustamante J, Seoane J. The application of predictive modelling of species distribution to biodiversity conservation. DIVERS DISTRIB 2007. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00356.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 259] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
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