Concurrent warming and browning eliminate cold-water fish habitat in many temperate lakes

Cold-water species in temperate lakes face two simultaneous climate-driven ecosystem changes: warming and browning of their waters. Browning refers to reduced transparency arising from increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which absorbs solar energy near the surface. It is unclear whether the net effect is mitigation or amplification of climate warming impacts on suitable oxythermal habitat (<20 °C, >5 mgO/L) for cold-loving species because browning expands the vertical distribution of both cool water and oxygen depletion. We analyzed long-term trends and high-frequency sensor data from browning lakes in New York's Adirondack region to assess the contemporary status of summertime habitat for lacustrine brook trout. Across two decades, surface temperatures increased twice as fast and bottom dissolved oxygen declined >180% faster than average trends for temperate lakes. We identify four lake categories based on oxythermal habitat metrics: constrained, squeezed, overheated, and buffered. In most of our study lakes, trout face either seasonal loss (7 of 15) or dramatic restriction (12 to 21% of the water column; 5 of 15) of suitable habitat. These sobering statistics reflect rapid upward expansion of oxygen depletion in lakes with moderate or high DOC relative to compression of heat penetration. Only in very clear lakes has browning potentially mitigated climate warming. Applying our findings to extensive survey data suggests that decades of browning have reduced oxythermal refugia in most Adirondack lakes. We conclude that joint warming and browning may preclude self-sustaining cold-water fisheries in many temperate lakes; hence, oxythermal categorization is essential to guide triage strategies and management interventions.

Species trait diversity sustains multiple dietary nutrients supplied by freshwater fisheries

Species, through their traits, influence how ecosystems simultaneously sustain multiple functions. However, it is unclear how trait diversity sustains the multiple contributions biodiversity makes to people. Freshwater fisheries nourish hundreds of millions of people globally, but overharvesting and river fragmentation are increasingly affecting catches. We analyse how loss of nutritional trait diversity in consumed fish portfolios affects the simultaneous provisioning of six essential dietary nutrients using household data from the Amazon and Tonlé Sap, two of Earth's most productive and diverse freshwater fisheries. We find that fish portfolios with high trait diversity meet higher thresholds of required daily intakes for a greater variety of nutrients with less fish biomass. This beneficial biodiversity effect is driven by low redundancy in species nutrient content profiles. Our findings imply that sustaining the dietary contributions fish make to people given declining biodiversity could require more biomass and ultimately exacerbate fishing pressure in already-stressed ecosystems.

Environmental footprints of farmed chicken and salmon bridge the land and sea

Food production, particularly of fed animals, is a leading cause of environmental degradation globally.^1,2 Understanding where and how much environmental pressure different fed animal products exert is critical to designing effective food policies that promote sustainability.³ Here, we assess and compare the environmental footprint of farming industrial broiler chickens and farmed salmonids (salmon, marine trout, and Arctic char) to identify opportunities to reduce environmental pressures. We map cumulative environmental pressures (greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient pollution, freshwater use, and spatial disturbance), with particular focus on dynamics across the land and sea. We found that farming broiler chickens disturbs 9 times more area than farming salmon (∼924,000 vs. ∼103,500 km²) but yields 55 times greater production. The footprints of both sectors are extensive, but 95% of cumulative pressures are concentrated into <5% of total area. Surprisingly, the location of these pressures is similar (85.5% spatial overlap between chicken and salmon pressures), primarily due to shared feed ingredients. Environmental pressures from feed ingredients account for >78% and >69% of cumulative pressures of broiler chicken and farmed salmon production, respectively, and could represent a key leverage point to reduce environmental footprints. The environmental efficiency (cumulative pressures per tonne of production) also differs geographically, with areas of high efficiency revealing further potential to promote sustainability. The propagation of environmental pressures across the land and sea underscores the importance of integrating food policies across realms and sectors to advance food system sustainability.

Can preserved museum specimens be used to reconstruct fish mercury burden and sources through time?

To evaluate the utility of preserved fishes for reconstructing historical and spatial patterns of mercury (Hg) exposure, we experimentally tested the stability of Hg concentrations and Hg stable isotope ratios under standard museum practices of specimen preservation. We found that loss of unidentified constituents during preservation increased Hg concentrations in fish muscle. Low-Hg fish reared in the laboratory were susceptible to exogenous contamination with inorganic mercury (iHg) when preservative fluids were intentionally spiked or iHg leached passively from contaminated wild fishes in the same container. This contamination impacted Hg isotope values of total Hg, but the conservative nature of methylmercury allows us to quantitatively correct for iHg contamination. Our findings validate the potential to use fishes from the world's museums to generate spatiotemporal baselines for the Minamata Convention on Mercury, but we recommend a set of precautions to maximize inference strength. Selecting the largest specimens of a target species helps dilute any iHg contamination. Specimens should be drawn from lots that were not comingled with fishes from other collections to minimize risk of iHg transfer among fish with different contamination histories. Finally, focusing on low-lipid species will enhance the comparability of Hg concentrations between historical and contemporary collections.

Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries

Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity^1,2. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain³. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km² (confidence interval 2.9-3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16-23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration⁴.

Mapping the planet's critical natural assets

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

Stream and ocean hydrodynamics mediate partial migration strategies in an amphidromous Hawaiian goby

Partial migration strategies, in which some individuals migrate but others do not, are widely observed in populations of migratory animals. Such patterns could arise via variation in migratory behaviors made by individual animals, via genetic variation in migratory predisposition, or simply by variation in migration opportunities mediated by environmental conditions. Here we use spatiotemporal variation in partial migration across populations of an amphidromous Hawaiian goby to test whether stream or ocean conditions favor completing its life cycle entirely within freshwater streams rather than undergoing an oceanic larval migration. Across 35 watersheds, microchemical analysis of otoliths revealed that most adult Awaous stamineus were freshwater residents (62% of n = 316 in 2009, 83% of n = 274 in 2011), but we found considerable variation among watersheds. We then tested the hypothesis that the prevalence of freshwater residency increases with the stability of stream flows and decreases with the availability of dispersal pathways arising from ocean hydrodynamics. We found that streams with low variation of daily discharge were home to a higher incidence of freshwater residents in each survey year. The magnitude of the shift in freshwater residency between survey years was positively associated with predicted interannual variability in the success of larval settlement in streams on each island based on passive drift in ocean currents. We built on these findings by developing a theoretical model of goby life history to further evaluate whether mediation of migration outcomes by stream and ocean hydrodynamics could be sufficient to explain the range of partial migration frequency observed across populations. The model illustrates that the proportion of larvae entering the ocean and differential survival of freshwater-resident versus ocean-going larvae are plausible mechanisms for range-wide shifts in migration strategies. Thus, we propose that hydrologic variation in both ocean and stream environments contributes to spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of migration phenotypes in A. stamineus. Our empirical and theoretical results suggest that the capacity for partial migration could enhance the persistence of metapopulations of diadromous fish when confronted with variable ocean and stream conditions.

Estimating the excess burden of pertussis disease in Australia within the first year of life, that might have been prevented through timely vaccination

BACKGROUND

Previous Australian studies have shown that delayed vaccination with each of the three primary doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccines (DTP) is up to 50 % in certain subpopulations. We estimated the excess burden of pertussis that might have been prevented if (i) all primary doses and (ii) each dose was given on time.

METHODS

Perinatal, immunization, pertussis notification and death data were probabilistically linked for 1 412 984 infants born in two Australian states in 2000-12. A DTP dose administered >15 days after the recommended age was considered delayed. We used Poisson regression models to compare pertussis notification rates to 1-year of age in infants with ≥1 dose delayed (Aim 1) or any individual dose delayed (Aim 2) versus a propensity weighted counterfactual on-time cohort.

RESULTS

Of all infants, 42% had ≥1 delayed DTP dose. We estimated that between 39 to 365 days of age, 85 (95% CI: 61-109) cases per 100 000 infants, could have been prevented if all infants with ≥1 delayed dose had received their three doses within the on-time window. Risk of pertussis was higher in the delayed versus the on-time cohort, so crude rates overestimated the excess burden (110 cases per 100 000 infants (95% CI: 95-125)). The estimated dose-specific excess burden per 100 000 infants was 132 for DTP1, 50 for DTP2 and 19 for DTP3.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide robust evidence that improved DTP vaccine timeliness, especially for the first dose, substantially reduces the burden of infant pertussis. Our methodology, using a potential outcomes framework, is applicable to other settings.

Body size has primacy over stoichiometric variables in nutrient excretion by a tropical stream fish community

Ecological Stoichiometry (ES) and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) are the main theories used to explain consumers’ nutrient recycling. ES posits that imbalances between an animal’s body and its diet stoichiometry determine its nutrient excretion rates, whereas the MTE predicts that excretion reflects metabolic activity arising from body size and temperature. We measured nitrogen, phosphorus and N:P excretion, body N:P stoichiometry, body size, and temperature for 12 fish species from a Brazilian stream. We fitted competing models reflecting different combinations of ES (body N:P, armor classification, diet group) and MTE (body size, temperature) variables. Only body size predicted P excretion rates, while N excretion was predicted by body size and time of day. N:P excretion was not explained by any variable. There was no interspecific difference in size-scaling coefficients neither for N nor for P. Fitted size scaling coefficients were lower than the MTE prediction of 0.75 for N (0.58), and for P (0.56). We conclude that differences in nutrient excretion among species within a shared environment primarily reflect contrasts in metabolic rates arising from body size, rather than disparities between consumer and resource stoichiometry. Our findings support the MTE as the primary framework for predicting nutrient excretion rates.

How accurately does the Australian Immunisation Register identify children overdue for vaccine doses? A national cross-sectional study

Abstract

The accuracy of data recorded in the Australian Immunisation Register (AIR) is important for assessment of population-level vaccine coverage but has not been assessed nationally since 2001. We undertook a cross-sectional study in five states in 2017 using standard criteria to validate AIR records classified as three months overdue for any vaccine at 12, 24 and 48 months. Of 2,000 records selected for audit, 905 were assessable, of which 124 (14%) were misclassified as overdue (errors). Among 563 general practice (GP) records, 91 (16.1%) were errors. Compared with Victoria (1/99; 1%), errors were significantly higher in Western Australia (11/106; 10.4%), Queensland (13/104; 12.5%), South Australia (23/110; 20.9%) and New South Wales (43/144; 29.9%); p < 0.01 for all. Among 165 council and community health centre providers, the overall error rate (17; 10.3%) was non-significantly lower than for GP providers, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.6 and a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.3-1.1, and did not differ between states. Records were transmitted to the AIR by paper-based methods in 13 cases, with significantly higher error rates (7/13; 54%) than for practice management software (77/630; 12.2%); OR 9.8 (95% CI 2.8-36.4) or the AIR secure site (23/87; 26.4%); OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.4-4.5). Accuracy is increasingly important, with mandatory reporting to the AIR for all National Immunisation Program vaccines from July 2021, and best achieved by uniform use of practice management software.

Pertussis Disease and Antenatal Vaccine Effectiveness in Australian Children

BACKGROUND

Population-level studies of severe pertussis extending beyond infancy are sparse, and none in the context of antenatal vaccination. We compared hospitalized pertussis cases from birth to 15 years of age before and after introduction of antenatal immunization.

METHODS

Active surveillance of laboratory-confirmed pertussis hospitalizations in a national network of pediatric hospitals in Australia January 2012 to June 2019. Impact of maternal vaccination was assessed by vaccine effectiveness (VE) in cases and test-negative controls with <2 months of age and by before-after comparison of age distribution of cases. Among cases eligible for one or more vaccine doses, we examined proportions age-appropriately immunized and with comorbidities by age group.

RESULTS

Among 419 eligible cases, the proportion <2 months of age significantly decreased from 33.1% in 2012 to 2014 compared with 19.6% in 2016 to 2019 when mothers of only 4 of 17 (23.5%) cases <2 months of age had received antenatal vaccination. VE was estimated to be 84.3% (95% CI, 26.1-96.7). Across all years (2012-2019), of 55 cases 4-11 months of age, 21 (38%) had ≥2 vaccine doses, whereas among 155 cases ≥12 months of age, 122 (85.2%) had ≥3 vaccine doses. Prevalence of comorbidities (primarily cardiorespiratory) increased from 5 (2.1%) <6 months of age to 36 (24.2%) ≥12 months of age (P < 0.001), with 6/16 (38%) cases ≥12 months of age who required intensive care having comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Below the age of 12 months, prevention of severe pertussis will be maximized by high maternal antenatal vaccine uptake and timeliness of infant vaccine doses. Despite full immunization, we found children ≥12 months of age accounted for 27% of hospitalizations <15 years, with 24% having comorbities, suggesting new vaccine strategies, such as additional doses or more immunogenic vaccines, require evaluation.

Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion

Proposed hydropower dams at more than 350 sites throughout the Amazon require strategic evaluation of trade-offs between the numerous ecosystem services provided by Earth's largest and most biodiverse river basin. These services are spatially variable, hence collective impacts of newly built dams depend strongly on their configuration. We use multiobjective optimization to identify portfolios of sites that simultaneously minimize impacts on river flow, river connectivity, sediment transport, fish diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving energy production goals. We find that uncoordinated, dam-by-dam hydropower expansion has resulted in forgone ecosystem service benefits. Minimizing further damage from hydropower development requires considering diverse environmental impacts across the entire basin, as well as cooperation among Amazonian nations. Our findings offer a transferable model for the evaluation of hydropower expansion in transboundary basins.

Genomic and environmental influences on resilience in a cold-water fish near the edge of its range

Small, isolated populations present a challenge for conservation. The dueling effects of selection and drift in a limited pool of genetic diversity make the responses of small populations to environmental perturbations erratic and difficult to predict. This is particularly true at the edge of a species range, where populations often persist at the limits of their environmental tolerances. Populations of cisco, Coregonus artedi, in inland lakes have experienced numerous extirpations along the southern edge of their range in recent decades, which are thought to result from environmental degradation and loss of cold, well-oxygenated habitat as lakes warm. Yet, cisco extirpations do not show a clear latitudinal pattern, suggesting that local environmental factors and potentially local adaptation may influence resilience. Here, we used genomic tools to investigate the nature of this pattern of resilience. We used restriction site-associated DNA capture (Rapture) sequencing to survey genomic diversity and differentiation in southern inland lake cisco populations and compared the frequency of deleterious mutations that potentially influence fitness across lakes. We also examined haplotype diversity in a region of the major histocompatibility complex involved in stress and immune system response. We correlated these metrics to spatial and environmental factors including latitude, lake size, and measures of oxythermal habitat and found significant relationships between genetic metrics and broad and local factors. High levels of genetic differentiation among populations were punctuated by a phylogeographic break and residual patterns of isolation-by-distance. Although the prevalence of deleterious mutations and inbreeding coefficients was significantly correlated with latitude, neutral and non-neutral genetic diversity were most strongly correlated with lake surface area. Notably, differences among lakes in the availability of estimated oxythermal habitat left no clear population genomic signature. Our results shed light on the complex dynamics influencing these isolated populations and provide valuable information for their conservation.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Where Are We Now?

The best and safest way to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is by using vaccination to generate widespread immunity. The urgent need to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines was met with unprecedented speed and action from the global community. There are now 289 vaccines in the development pipeline. More remarkably, there are 20 publicly available vaccines, and more than 3.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered across 180 countries. This is just the beginning of our fight against the pandemic. Even at the current vaccination rate, it could take years to vaccinate the world's population; many high-income countries are focusing on their needs, whereas the poorer nations are waiting for vaccines. There is still much that we do not understand about immunity to this new disease, and we will have to contend with the emerging variants. In this commentary, we describe the current status of COVID-19 vaccine development and provide insights into how the development and approvals happened so quickly. We discuss the clinical trial data that led to rapid emergency use authorization and the many challenges of global rollout. We also comment on some of the key unanswered questions and future directions for COVID-19 vaccine development and deployment.

472Long-term effectiveness of 3-dose primary course and 4-year booster dose of pertussis vaccine in Australia

Background

Australia’s National Immunisation Program recommended a 3-dose primary Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) vaccination course at 2, 4 and 6 months and a booster dose at 4 years during 2003-2015. We examined vaccine effectiveness by time since doses 3 and 4, as studies to date have shown conflicting results.

Methods

Perinatal, immunisation, pertussis notification and death data were linked for 1,086,319 infants born in two Australian states in 2003-2012. Administration of DTP doses 3 and 4 from 5.5-7 months and 47-53 months respectively, was considered age-appropriate. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying vaccination status were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE = 1–hazard ratio) against notified pertussis post age-appropriate doses 3 and 4 compared to unvaccinated children, with additional benefit of dose 4 compared to receipt of primary course alone.

Results

Dose 3 VE declined from 79% (CI 75%-83%) from 0-6 months to 64% (CI 60%-67%) at 6-36 months and 45% (CI 31%-56%) at 36-42 months post-vaccination. Compared to unvaccinated children, VE after dose 4 declined from 83% (CI 80%-86%) at 0-12 months to 67% (CI 60%-72%) and 55% (CI 46%-63%) in the following two 12-month periods post-vaccination. When compared to dose 3, the relative VE for dose 4 was 58% (CI 51%-64%) in 0-18 months post-vaccination.

Conclusion and Key messages

Our study adds to previous Australian evidence for substantial waning of vaccine induced immunity against pertussis over a 3-year period following dose 3. VE was significantly higher in the 18 months following dose 4 compared to receipt of primary course alone.

473Preventable pertussis burden in Australia within the first year of life by improving vaccination timeliness

Background

Previous Australian studies have shown that on-time Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) vaccination coverage is 50-60% in certain subpopulations. We estimated the potentially preventable burden of pertussis if, 1) the full primary course and, 2) each dose was given on-time.

Methods

Perinatal, immunisation, pertussis notification, and death data were linked for 1,412,984 infants born in two Australian states in 2000-2012. A DTP dose administered &gt;15 days after the recommended age was categorised as delayed. For aim 1, pertussis rates up to 1-year of age were compared in infants with ≥1 dose delayed versus all doses on-time, using Poisson regression methods. For aim 2, the expected number of cases preventable by each dose was calculated as the product of the number of cases observed during the period of delay and (1 – dose-specific vaccine effectiveness).

Results

58% of infants had all primary DTP doses on time. We estimated that 85 (95% CI: 61-109) cases per 100,000 infants, aged 39-days to 1-year, could have been prevented if all infants had been vaccinated on time; 77% of these infants had received ≥1 DTP dose within the first year of life. Estimated preventable burden attributable to delayed DTP1 (58/100,000) was higher than for DTP2 (26/100,000) and DTP3 (15/100,000).

Conclusions and Key messages

Poor vaccine timeliness, especially delayed DTP1, is a key contributor to the residual burden of pertussis. These findings can inform cost-benefit analyses of targeted programs and public health messaging to reduce delays.

Levels of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalisations in Australia: An observational study

BACKGROUND

There is limited empiric evidence on the coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) required to generate substantial indirect protection. We investigate the association between population PCV coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia hospitalisations among undervaccinated Australian children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Birth and vaccination records, IPD notifications, and hospitalisations were individually linked for children aged <5 years, born between 2001 and 2012 in 2 Australian states (New South Wales and Western Australia; 1.37 million children). Using Poisson regression models, we examined the association between PCV coverage, in small geographical units, and the incidence of (1) 7-valent PCV (PCV7)-type IPD; (2) all-cause pneumonia; and (3) pneumococcal and lobar pneumonia hospitalisation in undervaccinated children. Undervaccinated children received <2 doses of PCV at <12 months of age and no doses at ≥12 months of age. Potential confounding variables were selected for adjustment a priori with the assistance of a directed acyclic graph. There were strong inverse associations between PCV coverage and the incidence of PCV7-type IPD (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.967, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.958 to 0.975, p-value < 0.001), and pneumonia hospitalisations (all-cause pneumonia: aIRR 0.991 95% CI 0.990 to 0.994, p-value < 0.001) among undervaccinated children. Subgroup analyses for children <4 months old, urban, rural, and Indigenous populations showed similar trends, although effects were smaller for rural and Indigenous populations. Approximately 50% coverage of PCV7 among children <5 years of age was estimated to prevent up to 72.5% (95% CI 51.6 to 84.4) of PCV7-type IPD among undervaccinated children, while 90% coverage was estimated to prevent 95.2% (95% CI 89.4 to 97.8). The main limitations of this study include the potential for differential loss to follow-up, geographical misclassification of children (based on residential address at birth only), and unmeasured confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed substantial indirect protection at lower levels of PCV coverage than previously described-challenging assumptions that high levels of PCV coverage (i.e., greater than 90%) are required. Understanding the association between PCV coverage and indirect protection is a priority since the control of vaccine-type pneumococcal disease is a prerequisite for reducing the number of PCV doses (from 3 to 2). Reduced dose schedules have the potential to substantially reduce program costs while maintaining vaccine impact.

Depth-discrete metagenomics reveals the roles of microbes in biogeochemical cycling in the tropical freshwater Lake Tanganyika

Lake Tanganyika (LT) is the largest tropical freshwater lake, and the largest body of anoxic freshwater on Earth's surface. LT's mixed oxygenated surface waters float atop a permanently anoxic layer and host rich animal biodiversity. However, little is known about microorganisms inhabiting LT's 1470 meter deep water column and their contributions to nutrient cycling, which affect ecosystem-level function and productivity. Here, we applied genome-resolved metagenomics and environmental analyses to link specific taxa to key biogeochemical processes across a vertical depth gradient in LT. We reconstructed 523 unique metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from 34 bacterial and archaeal phyla, including many rarely observed in freshwater lakes. We identified sharp contrasts in community composition and metabolic potential with an abundance of typical freshwater taxa in oxygenated mixed upper layers, and Archaea and uncultured Candidate Phyla in deep anoxic waters. Genomic capacity for nitrogen and sulfur cycling was abundant in MAGs recovered from anoxic waters, highlighting microbial contributions to the productive surface layers via recycling of upwelled nutrients, and greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide. Overall, our study provides a blueprint for incorporation of aquatic microbial genomics in the representation of tropical freshwater lakes, especially in the context of ongoing climate change, which is predicted to bring increased stratification and anoxia to freshwater lakes.

Invasion and rapid adaptation of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) across the Hawaiian Archipelago

How much does natural selection, as opposed to genetic drift, admixture, and gene flow, contribute to the evolution of invasive species following introduction to a new environment? Here we assess how evolution can shape biological invasions by examining population genomic variation in non-native guppies (Poecilia reticulata) introduced to the Hawaiian Islands approximately a century ago. By examining 18 invasive populations from four Hawaiian islands and four populations from the native range in northern South America, we reconstructed the history of introductions and evaluated population structure as well as the extent of ongoing gene flow across watersheds and among islands. Patterns of differentiation indicate that guppies have developed significant population structure, with little natural or human-mediated gene flow having occurred among populations following introduction. Demographic modeling and admixture graph analyses together suggest that guppies were initially introduced to O'ahu and Maui and then translocated to Hawai'i and Kaua'i. We detected evidence for only one introduction event from the native range, implying that any adaptive evolution in introduced populations likely utilized the genetic variation present in the founding population. Environmental association tests accounting for population structure identified loci exhibiting signatures of adaptive variation related to predators and landscape characteristics but not nutrient regimes. When paired with high estimates of effective population sizes and detectable population structure, the presence of environment-associated loci supports the role of natural selection in shaping contemporary evolution of Hawaiian guppy populations. Our findings indicate that local adaptation may engender invasion success, particularly in species with life histories that facilitate rapid evolution. Finally, evidence of low gene flow between populations suggests that removal could be an effective approach to control invasive guppies across the Hawaiian archipelago.

Hepatitis B Seroepidemiology in Australia, One Decade After Universal Vaccination of Infants and Adolescents

BACKGROUND

This study assessed the impact of the staged introduction of universal infant and adolescent catch-up hepatitis B vaccination programs on the prevalence of immunity and past hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in targeted cohorts over almost a decade in Australia.

METHODS

We compared the prevalence of immunity in relevant cohorts of children and adolescents in repeated national serological surveys conducted in 1998-99, 2002 and 2007. Residual sera (n =2210) collected opportunistically from Australian laboratories in 2007 were tested for antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) indicating vaccine-induced immunity; sera from individuals aged 12-29 years with anti-HBs detected (n =386) were then tested for hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) to identify past hepatitis B infection.

RESULTS

In 2007, compared with the baseline period of 1998-99, anti-HBs prevalence had increased significantly in all age groups below 24 years, by more than double in target children. Prevalence of anti-HBc was zero in the 12-14 years and reduced by 71% in those aged 15-19 years. The hepatitis B vaccination protected a significant number of targeted adolescents with a modest vaccine uptake (57% to 60% nationally).

CONCLUSION

In a setting without incentives or school entry requirements, adolescent vaccination coverage was significantly higher when delivered by school-based rather than GP-based mechanisms. A cohort of children was growing up in Australia with a high prevalence of vaccineinduced immunity against hepatitis B, providing the best opportunity for controlling HBV infection in Australia.

Tetanus Immunity and Epidemiology in Australia, 1993-2010

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates trends in tetanus immunity and epidemiology over the last two decades in Australia, drawing on two national serological surveys and national tetanus morbidity data, to justify current Australian adult tetanus booster recommendations.

METHODS

We compare tetanus immunity level between two national serosurveys, and examine incidence trends using the most accurate estimation of the true number of cases by correcting for under-ascertainment.

RESULTS

Tetanus immunity in people aged <60 years is high, but the elderly, particularly the female elderly, may not be adequately protected. Over the past twenty years older people have regularly accounted for the highest number of tetanus cases, with an increasing proportion of cases.

CONCLUSION

Despite a positive decrease in tetanus incidence, there remains a significant burden in the elderly population of an entirely preventable disease. Supplying a funded booster dose of dTpa at 65 years would be, potentially, an effective strategy to prevent tetanus cases in Australia.

Diphtheria Immunity in Australia: Should we be Concerned?

OBJECTIVES

We report the results of the 2007 national serological survey of immunity to diphtheria in Australia to assess the impact of recent schedule changes on diphtheria immunity, and the adequacy of current policy in the context of increased international travel of people and pathogens.

METHODS

Residual sera (n =1656) collected opportunistically from Australian laboratories in 2007 were tested for diphtheria antibody levels using an enzyme immunoassay, with the protective threshold defined as ≥0.1 IU/mL. About 40% of adults aged ≥30 years are susceptible to diphtheria; following the removal of the 18-month booster and its replacement with a dose in adolescence offered through school-based dTpa vaccination program, 59% of children aged 3 years were susceptible to diphtheria, whilst adolescents demonstrated improved immunity.

RESULTS

There is no apparent boosting of diphtheria immunity from meningococcal group C conjugate (MCC) or seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate (7vPCV) vaccines in relevant age groups.

CONCLUSION

Australians who travel to diphtheria-endemic areas should be up-to-date with their vaccinations. Close monitoring of population immunity levels against diphtheria remains important to ensure that immunity does not decline to a level where wide-spread transmission would be possible.

Outsized nutrient contributions from small tributaries to a Great Lake

Excessive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading is one of the greatest threats to aquatic ecosystems in the Anthropocene, causing eutrophication of rivers, lakes, and marine coastlines worldwide. For lakes across the United States, eutrophication is driven largely by nonpoint nutrient sources from tributaries that drain surrounding watersheds. Decades of monitoring and regulatory efforts have paid little attention to small tributaries of large water bodies, despite their ubiquity and potential local importance. We used a snapshot of nutrient inputs from nearly all tributaries of Lake Michigan-the world's fifth largest freshwater lake by volume-to determine how land cover and dams alter nutrient inputs across watershed sizes. Loads, concentrations, stoichiometry (N:P), and bioavailability (percentage dissolved inorganic nutrients) varied by orders of magnitude among tributaries, creating a mosaic of coastal nutrient inputs. The 6 largest of 235 tributaries accounted for ∼70% of the daily N and P delivered to Lake Michigan. However, small tributaries exhibited nutrient loads that were high for their size and biased toward dissolved inorganic forms. Higher bioavailability of nutrients from small watersheds suggests greater potential to fuel algal blooms in coastal areas, especially given the likelihood that their plumes become trapped and then overlap in the nearshore zone. Our findings reveal an underappreciated role that small streams may play in driving coastal eutrophication in large water bodies. Although they represent only a modest proportion of lake-wide loads, expanding nutrient management efforts to address smaller watersheds could reduce the ecological impacts of nutrient loading on valuable nearshore ecosystems.

Structural genomic variation leads to genetic differentiation in Lake Tanganyika's sardines

Identifying patterns in genetic structure and the genetic basis of ecological adaptation is a core goal of evolutionary biology and can inform the management and conservation of species that are vulnerable to population declines exacerbated by climate change. We used reduced-representation genomic sequencing methods to gain a better understanding of genetic structure among and within populations of Lake Tanganyika's two sardine species, Limnothrissa miodon and Stolothrissa tanganicae. Samples of these ecologically and economically important species were collected across the length of Lake Tanganyika, as well as from nearby Lake Kivu, where L. miodon was introduced in 1959. Our results reveal differentiation within both S. tanganicae and L. miodon that is not explained by geography. Instead, this genetic differentiation is due to the presence of large sex-specific regions in the genomes of both species, but involving different polymorphic sites in each species. Our results therefore indicate rapidly evolving XY sex determination in the two species. Additionally, we found evidence of a large chromosomal rearrangement in L. miodon, creating two homokaryotypes and one heterokaryotype. We found all karyotypes throughout Lake Tanganyika, but the frequencies vary along a north-south gradient and differ substantially in the introduced Lake Kivu population. We do not find evidence for significant isolation by distance, even over the hundreds of kilometres covered by our sampling, but we do find shallow population structure.

Ecosystem responses to channel restoration decline with stream size in urban river networks

Urban streams are often severely impaired due to channelization, high loads of nutrients and contaminants, and altered land cover in the watershed. Physical restoration of stream channels is widely used to offset the effects of urbanization on streams, with the goal of improving ecosystem structure and function. However, these efforts are rarely guided by strategic analysis of the factors that mediate the responsiveness of stream ecosystems to restoration. Given that ecological gradients from headwater streams to mainstem rivers are ubiquitous, we posited that location within a river network could mediate the benefits of channel restoration. We studied existing stream restorations in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to determine (1) whether restorations improve ecosystem function (e.g., nutrient uptake, whole-stream metabolism) and (2) how ecosystem responses vary by position in the urban river network. We quantified a suite of physicochemical and biological metrics in six pairs of contiguous restored and concrete channel reaches, spanning gradients in baseflow discharge (19-196 L/s) and river network position (i.e., headwater to mainstem). Hydrology differed dramatically between the restored and concrete reaches; water velocity was reduced 2- to 13-fold while water residence time was 50-5,000% greater in adjacent restored reaches. Restored reaches had shorter nutrient uptake lengths for ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate, as well as higher whole-stream metabolism. Furthermore, the majority of reaches were autotrophic (i.e., gross primary production > ecosystem respiration), which is not common in stream ecosystems. The difference in ecosystem functioning between restored and unrestored reaches was generally largest in headwaters and declined to equivalence in mainstem restorations. Our results suggest that headwater sites offer higher return on investment compared to larger downstream channels, where ecosystem responsiveness is low. If this pattern proves to be general, the scaling of ecosystem responses with river size could be integrated into planning guidelines for urban stream restorations to enhance the societal and ecological benefits of these expensive interventions.

Lower immunity to poliomyelitis viruses in Australian young adults not eligible for inactivated polio vaccine

There are limited long-term data on seroprevalence of neutralising antibody (nAb) to the three poliovirus serotypes following the switch from oral polio vaccine (OPV) to inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). In Australia, combination vaccines containing IPV replaced OPV in late 2005. Using serum and plasma specimens collected during 2012 and 2013, we compared prevalence of nAb to poliovirus type 1 (PV1), type 2 (PV2) and type 3 (PV3) in birth cohorts with differing IPV and OPV eligibility from an Australian population-based sample. In the total sample of 1673 persons aged 12 months to 99 years, 85% had nAb against PV1, 83% PV2 and 67% PV3. In the cohort 12 to <18 years (eligible for 4 OPV doses, last dose 8-14 years prior), a significantly lower proportion had nAb than in the 7 to <12 year cohort (eligible for 3 OPV doses and an IPV booster, last dose 3-8 years prior) for all poliovirus types: [PV1: 87.1% vs. 95.9% (P = 0.01), PV2: 80.4% vs. 92.9% (P = 0.003) and PV3: 38.1% vs. 84.0% (P < 0.0001)]. These data suggest individual-level immunity may be better maintained when an OPV primary schedule is boosted by IPV, and support inclusion of an IPV booster in travel recommendations for young adults who previously received only OPV.

Migratory flexibility in native Hawai'ian amphidromous fishes

We assessed the prevalence of life history variation across four of the five native amphidromous Hawai'ian gobioids to determine whether some or all exhibit evidence of partial migration. Analysis of otolith Sr.: Ca concentrations affirmed that all are amphidromous and revealed evidence of partial migration in three of the four species. We found that 25% of Lentipes concolor (n = 8), 40% of Eleotris sandwicensis (n = 20) and 29% of Stenogobius hawaiiensis (n = 24) did not exhibit a migratory life-history. In contrast, all individuals of Sicyopterus stimpsoni (n = 55) included in the study went to sea as larvae. Lentipes concolor exhibited the shortest mean larval duration (LD) at 87 days, successively followed by E. sandwicensis (mean LD = 102 days), S. hawaiiensis (mean LD = 114 days) and S. stimpsoni (mean LD = 120 days). These findings offer a fresh perspective on migratory life histories that can help improve efforts to conserve and protect all of these and other at-risk amphidromous species that are subject to escalating anthropogenic pressures in both freshwater and marine environments.

Whole-Cell Pertussis Vaccination and Decreased Risk of IgE-Mediated Food Allergy: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Rates of food allergy have increased markedly in Australia and other high- income countries in recent years. On the basis of ecological observations, and the known immunologic characteristics of whole-cell pertussis (wP) compared with acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines, we hypothesized that wP vaccination in infancy protects against the development of food allergy.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether infants who receive wP in infancy were less likely to develop IgE-mediated food allergy than those who received aP.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort-nested case-control study of Australian children born in the period 1997 to 1999, the period of transition from using wP-containing to aP-containing vaccines. Children diagnosed with IgE-mediated food allergy were individually matched to 10 controls by date of birth, socioeconomic decile, and jurisdiction of birth. The odds ratio of vaccination with wP versus aP among cases and matched controls was calculated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

The odds ratio of receiving the first dose as wP (rather than aP) among cases of food allergy compared with controls was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.62-0.95). The results of secondary analyses (any dose as wP vs aP-only, and wP-only vs aP-only) were broadly similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Australian infants who received wP vaccines were less likely to be diagnosed with food allergy in childhood than contemporaneous children who received aP vaccines. If a protective effect is confirmed in a randomized controlled trial, wP or mixed wP and aP vaccination schedules could form part of an effective strategy for combating the rise in food allergies.

Adoption and consequences of new light-fishing technology (LEDs) on Lake Tanganyika, East Africa

Maintaining sustainable fisheries requires understanding the influence of technological advances on catch efficiency, as technological creep can ultimately contribute to increased efficiency. Fisheries using light sources for attraction could be widely impacted by the shift to light emitting diode (LED) light systems. We studied the transition from kerosene lanterns to LED lamps in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, examining factors that led to adoption as well as the impact of the new light sources on fish catch and composition. We used a combination of field experiments with catch assessments, fisher surveys, underwater light spectra measurements, and cost assessments to evaluate the impact of switching from kerosene to LED lamps. Overall, we found a very rapid rate of adoption of homemade outdoor LED light systems in Lake Tanganyika. Most of the batteries used to power these lamps were charged from the city power grid, rather than photovoltaic cells, although the potential exists for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The LED light spectra was distinct from the kerosene light and penetrated much deeper into the water column. Regardless of light type, most of the fish caught within the two dominant species were below maturity. Although the LED lamps were associated with a slight increase in catch, environmental factors, particularly distance offshore, were generally more important in determining fish catch size and composition. The main advantages of the LED lamps were the lower operating costs and their robustness in bad weather. Thus, the primary effect of the use of battery-powered LED lighting systems to attract fish in Lake Tanganyika appears to reduce economic costs and increasing efficiency. However, overall the lake's fishery remains vulnerable to overfishing.

Infant, maternal and demographic predictors of delayed vaccination: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Receiving vaccines at or close to their due date (vaccination timeliness) is a now key measure of program performance. However, studies comprehensively examining predictors of delayed infant vaccination are lacking. We aimed to identify predictors of short and longer-term delays in diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination by dose number and ethnicity.

METHODS

Perinatal, notification, death and immunisation databases were linked for 1.3 million births in 2000-11 from two Australian states (Western Australia and New South Wales), with follow-up data until 2013. Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted relative risks (RR) by degree of delay. Separate models were constructed for each vaccine dose and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

RESULTS

Each dose-specific cohort included at least 49,000 Aboriginal and 1.1 million non-Aboriginal children. Delayed receipt was more common among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal children (eg for the first dose of DTP [DTP1] 19.4 v 8.1%). Risk factors for delayed vaccination were strongest for DTP1, and delayed receipt of DTP1 was a key driver of subsequent delays; every week DTP1 was delayed was associated with a 1.6 to 2-fold increased risk of delayed DTP2 receipt. For DTP1, ≥3 previous pregnancies (the only factor more strongly associated with longer than shorter delays; RR ≥5 compared to no previous pregnancies), and children born to mothers <20 years of age (RR ≥2 compared to ≥35 years) were at highest risk of delay. Other independent predictors were prematurity, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and being born in Western Australia (if Aboriginal) or another country in the Oceania region.

CONCLUSION

The sub-populations at risk for delayed vaccination we have identified are likely generalisable to other high-income settings. Measures to improve their dose 1 timeliness, particularly for children with older siblings, are likely to have significant flow-on benefits for timeliness of later doses.

Timeliness and factors associated with rotavirus vaccine uptake among Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children: A record linkage cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Rotavirus vaccines (RV), included in Australia's National Immunisation Program from mid-July 2007, are unique in strict time limits for administration. Here, we report on timeliness of RV uptake, compare cumulative RV coverage to age 12 months with DTPa, and assess factors associated with receipt of RV among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

METHODS

Birth records for 681,456 children born in two Australian states in 2007-2012 were probabilistically linked to national immunisation records. We assessed on-time coverage (defined as receipt of vaccine dose between 4 days prior to scheduled date and the recommended upper limit) for RV and compared this to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTPa) vaccine. Logistic regression modelling was used to assess independent determinants of receipt of RV.

RESULTS

Compared to non-Aboriginal infants, on-time RV coverage was lower for all doses among Aboriginal infants. Post the upper age limit of RV dose2, DTPa dose2 coverage increased by 9-16% to ≥90%, whereas RV coverage remained around 77% (Aboriginal) and 85% (non-Aboriginal). Compared to first-born children, the adjusted odds of receiving ≥1 RV dose if born to a mother with ≥3 previous births was 0.30 (95%CI: 0.27-0.34) among Aboriginal, and 0.53 (95%CI: 0.51-0.55) among non-Aboriginal children. Prematurity (<33 weeks), low birthweight (<1500 g), maternal age <20 years, maternal smoking during pregnancy and living in a disadvantaged area were independently associated with decreased vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

Aboriginal children are at greater risk of rotavirus disease than non-Aboriginal children and delayed vaccine receipt is substantially higher. Although specific programs targeting groups at risk of delayed vaccination might improve RV coverage, relaxation of upper age restrictions is most readily implementable, and its overall risk-benefit should be evaluated.

Effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hospital admissions for pneumonia in Australian children: a retrospective, population-based, record-linked cohort study

BACKGROUND

Reductions in pneumonia hospitalisations following introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been reported from high-incidence and low-incidence settings but long-term data comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated children are sparse.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, population-based, record-linkage cohort study in Australian children using administrative health data from the Western Australian Midwives' Notification System and New South Wales Perinatal Data Collection, and the birth and death registries in both states. PCV vaccination details, pneumonia-coded hospital admissions, and invasive pneumococcal disease notification records were individually linked for children born between 2001 and 2012. The primary outcome was defined as the first hospital admission for all-cause pneumonia. Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) to estimate the effect of PCV doses on pneumonia-coded hospital admissions by Aboriginal status, birth period, remoteness, and pneumonia diagnostic category in children younger than 2 years. Person-time of follow-up time for each child started at birth and was censored at the earliest of first hospital admission for all-cause pneumonia, death, invalid PCV dose, when the child reached age 24 months, or the end date of the study period (Dec 31, 2013) FINDINGS: The study cohort comprised 1 365 893 children liveborn between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2012, of whom 66 484 (4·9%) were identified as Aboriginal. The overall rate for all-cause pneumonia hospital admissions for children younger than 2 years over the entire study period was 17·6/1000 child-years in Aboriginal children and 5·5/1000 child-years in non-Aboriginal children. Compared with children born between 2001 and 2004 (ie, the pre-universal PCV period), the incidence of pneumonia-coded hospital admissions decreased in both vaccinated (6·5 vs 5·7 per 1000 child-years [12% reduction, 95% CI 3-21; p=0·01]) and unvaccinated non-Aboriginal children (6·8 vs 3·7 [45% reduction; 41-49]) born 2005-12 (the universal PCV period); among Aboriginal children, declines were significant only among those vaccinated (27·4 vs 14·1 [49% reduction, 40-55]). Among Aboriginal children born 2005-12, the risk of pneumonia-coded hospital admission after three doses of PCV was lower than those unvaccinated (adjusted HR 0·83, 95% CI 0·65-0·99) but, among non-Aboriginal children, the risk was similar (adjusted HR 1·09, 0·98-1·22). Overall, remote-born Aboriginal children had the highest incidence of hospital admission for pneumonia and among children born 2005-12, the adjusted risk was 37% lower (adjusted HR 0·63, 95% CI 0·42-0·96) among those fully vaccinated than those unvaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

Reductions in pneumonia-coded hospital admissions in unvaccinated children predominated in non-Aboriginal children with low incidence of pneumonia but were not significant in Aboriginal children with high incidence. These findings have potential implications for measuring PCV effect using a non-specific endpoint such as all-cause pneumonia in high-incidence populations.

FUNDING

Commonwealth Government Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy and Education Investment Fund Super Science Initiative and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Bushmeat biogeochemistry: hunting tropical mammals alters ecosystem phosphorus budgets

Wild meat (or 'bushmeat') hunting is nearly ubiquitous across the tropics and is very often unsustainable-driving declines and extirpation of numerous mammal populations. Loss of these animals can alter the transport of nutrients within and between ecosystems. But whether the physical removal of vertebrate carcasses and the nutrients that they store can reduce overall nutrient availability in ecosystems has been little explored. At 32 sites on three continents, we show that annual phosphorus (P) loss via mammal exploitation was low relative to the rate of atmospheric P deposition. But at four sites in Africa and Southeast Asia, removal of P in the skeletons of hunted mammals exceeded the atmospheric input of this nutrient by 10-fold or more. Because P is the growth-limiting nutrient for many tropical terrestrial ecosystems and certain large mammals, the imbalance created by the removal of mammal biomass under very high hunting scenarios could reduce ecosystem carrying capacity if no compensatory P additions occur in the system. This biogeochemical perspective on bushmeat exploitation raises further concerns about harvest sustainability and human food security in areas where hunting rates are high and ecosystem P inputs low.

Drivers and Management Implications of Long-Term Cisco Oxythermal Habitat Decline in Lake Mendota, WI

Cisco (Coregonus artedi) are an important indicator species for cold-water lake habitats in the Great Lakes region, and many populations have been extirpated at their southern range limit over the last century. Understanding the roles of climate and water quality in these extirpations should inform protection of cold-water fishes. Using the water temperature at the depth where dissolved oxygen falls to 3 mg L^-1 (TDO3) as a metric, we investigated the roles of climate and water quality as drivers of habitat availability for cisco in Lake Mendota, WI, USA from 1976 to 2013. We find that summer (Jun-Aug) air temperatures, spring (Mar-May) phosphorus load, and spring inflow influence summer TDO3. Warm air temperatures lead to the greatest increases in TDO3, whereas reduced phosphorus loads can reduce TDO3, thus alleviating oxythermal stress. Under air temperatures expected under the A1B climate change scenario, a 25% reduction in phosphorus load would stabilize TDO3 at current levels, while a 75% reduction in phosphorus loading would be required to expand oxythermal habitat. Costs of these reductions are estimated to range from US$16.9 million (-25%) to US$155-167 million (-75%) over a 20-year period but may be feasible by expanding upon current watershed phosphorus reduction initiatives if sustained funding were available. Identifying targeted reductions will become increasingly important throughout the region as warmer temperatures and longer stratification reduces cool- and cold-water fish habitat in many Midwestern lakes under the expected future climate.

Global patterns and drivers of ecosystem functioning in rivers and riparian zones

River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth's biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented "next-generation biomonitoring" by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.

Varicella vaccine effectiveness over 10 years in Australia; moderate protection from 1-dose program

OBJECTIVES

To examine the impact of Australia's single dose infant varicella vaccination program, we assessed single dose varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing hospitalised disease using two methods.

METHODS

Clinically confirmed varicella cases from the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance (PAEDS) sentinel network were age-matched to 20 controls obtained from the Australian Immunisation Register. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate VE and compared with estimates obtained using our second approach.

RESULTS

There were 78 hospitalised varicella cases during the post vaccine introduction period from January 2008 to December 2015, who were eligible for funded varicella vaccination. Median age at onset was 4.5 years and more than half (59%) were vaccinated. The majority of children received one vaccine brand (Varilrix, GSK). The estimated case-control VE for one dose of vaccine against hospitalised varicella was 64.7% (95% CI: 43.3-78.0%); estimates using the screening method were not significantly different. Exclusion of children who were immunocompromised did not significantly alter VE estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Australia's program has impacted on the burden of varicella disease, single dose VE against varicella hospitalisation is only moderate. Greater reductions in varicella disease could potentially be achieved by incorporation of a second vaccine dose into the program to minimise breakthrough disease and interrupt virus circulation.

Aging infrastructure creates opportunities for cost-efficient restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity

A hallmark of industrialization is the construction of dams for water management and roads for transportation, leading to fragmentation of aquatic ecosystems. Many nations are striving to address both maintenance backlogs and mitigation of environmental impacts as their infrastructure ages. Here, we test whether accounting for road repair needs could offer opportunities to boost conservation efficiency by piggybacking connectivity restoration projects on infrastructure maintenance. Using optimization models to align fish passage restoration sites with likely road repair priorities, we find potential increases in conservation return-on-investment ranging from 17% to 25%. Importantly, these gains occur without compromising infrastructure or conservation priorities; simply communicating openly about objectives and candidate sites enables greater accomplishment at current funding levels. Society embraces both reliable roads and thriving fisheries, so overcoming this coordination challenge should be feasible. Given deferred maintenance crises for many types of infrastructure, there could be widespread opportunities to enhance the cost effectiveness of conservation investments by coordinating with infrastructure renewal efforts.

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long-standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea-lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0-25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1-105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15-50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea-lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20-80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea-lamprey access to identify barrier-removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea-lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade-off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.

Conserving rare species can have high opportunity costs for common species

Conservation practitioners face difficult choices in apportioning limited resources between rare species (to ensure their existence) and common species (to ensure their abundance and ecosystem contributions). We quantified the opportunity costs of conserving rare species of migratory fishes in the context of removing dams and retrofitting road culverts across 1,883 tributaries of the North American Great Lakes. Our optimization models show that maximizing total habitat gains across species can be very efficient in terms of benefits achieved per dollar spent, but disproportionately benefits common species. Conservation approaches that target rare species, or that ensure some benefits for every species (i.e., complementarity) enable strategic allocation of resources among species but reduce aggregate habitat gains. Thus, small habitat gains for the rarest species necessarily come at the expense of more than 20 times as much habitat for common ones. These opportunity costs are likely to occur in many ecosystems because range limits and conservation costs often vary widely among species. Given that common species worldwide are declining more rapidly than rare ones within major taxa, our findings provide incentive for triage among multiple worthy conservation targets.

Population-Level Herd Protection of Males From a Female Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Program: Evidence from Australian Serosurveillance

Background

Australia instituted funded female human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization in 2007, followed by a targeted male vaccination program in 2013. To date, Australia is one of only several countries with a funded male HPV immunization program. In 2012-2013, we conducted a survey of HPV seroprevalence in males to assess whether or not a herd impact of female vaccination could be observed.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of de-identified residual diagnostic test serum samples from males aged 15-39 years from laboratories in 3 Australian states and calculated the proportion seropositive to HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18. We compared type-specific results by age group against those from a baseline 2005 Australian HPV serosurvey.

Results

There were decreases in proportion seropositive for every HPV type across all age groups, many statistically significant. The largest decrease was observed for HPV-11, with decreases of 8- and 9-fold for ages 20-29 and 30-39 years, respectively. Despite substantial reductions in seroprevalence, at least 9% of males were seropositive for at least 1 of the 4 HPV types.

Conclusions

This is the first serosurvey confirming broad population-level impact in males from female HPV vaccination. Our research may assist policy makers considering implementing HPV vaccination programs.

Australian rubella serosurvey 2012-2013: On track for elimination?

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has targeted rubella virus for elimination regionally. Australia was one of the first countries to implement a nationally funded rubella immunisation program, in 1971, and conducts regular national rubella serosurveillance studies. We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of rubella-specific IgG antibody in the Australian population by age and sex in 2012-2013, to compare the results with three previous serosurveys conducted in 1996-1999, 2002 and 2007 and to estimate the effective reproduction numbers (R_n).

METHODS

This study used 2729 serum and plasma specimens, randomly selected from a specimen bank collected in 2012-2013 across Australia. Age groups included in the sample ranged from 1 to 49 years. Sera were tested for rubella-specific IgG-antibody using the Enzygnost anti-rubella IgG enzyme immunoassay and classified as positive, negative or equivocal according to rubella-specific IgG concentrations of >7 IU/ml, <3 IU/ml and 3-7 IU/ml, respectively.

RESULTS

The overall proportions seropositive, seronegative and equivocal for rubella-specific IgG were 92.1% (95% CI, 91.0-93.2), 6.7% (95% CI, 5.7-7.7) and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.8-1.6), respectively. The proportion of males seropositive was significantly lower than females in the 30-34 (83.1% vs. 96.8%, p = 0.003), 35-39 (86.1% vs. 96.3%, p = 0.02) and 40-44 (86.1% vs. 95.7%, p = 0.03) year age groups. R_n for rubella in 2012-2013 was estimated to be 0.33 (95% CI 0.28-0.39).

DISCUSSION

The 2012-2013 national serosurvey showed levels of rubella-specific IgG seropositivity in the Australian population are relatively high with no evidence of decrease compared to previous serosurveys conducted in 1996-1999, 2002 and 2007. The lower proportion of seropositive males aged 30-44 years likely reflects the initial immunisation program targeting females only. To our knowledge this study represents the longest period of serosurveillance following introduction of a nationally funded rubella immunisation program. The lack of evidence of decreasing rubella-specific IgG seropositivity is therefore reassuring for Australia and other countries with longstanding high vaccine coverage.