Toxics, Toyotas, and terrorism: the behavioral economics of fear and stigma

A combined behavioural economics- and simulation-based medical education to promote effectiveness among medical residents in coping with workplace violence in Northern China: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

Workplace violence is internationally recognised as a major concern for the workforce, which entails serious consequences, and research shows that medical residents are more likely than other doctors to experience violence in the workplace. This study first examines the effectiveness of simulation-based medical education, and then simulation-based medical education combined with behavioural economics as interventions in medical residents' perception of, attitude toward, and self-efficacy in coping with violence in the workplace.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental design was used, 190 participants were randomised into three study groups to respectively test the effect of simulation-based medical education only and simulation-based medical education plus behavioural economics interventions, compared with a control group. Data were obtained from structured questionnaires, including (1) a perception of aggression scale, a management of aggression and violence attitude scale, a general self-efficacy scale, and (2) socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The results show that the scores attained by simulation-based medical education (SBME) and simulation-based medical education combined with behavioural economics (SBME + BE) interventions for perception, attitude, and self-efficacy were significantly higher than those in the control group (p < .01). The SBME + BE group recorded a greater improvement in perception, which could be ascribed to the behavioural economics effect. Furthermore, the higher perception of workplace violence is correlated with single residents and those with more work experience, prior experiences of violence in the workplace, and training related to workplace violence. A higher positive correlation of workplace violence was recorded by female and widowed residents,and a higher level of self-efficacy related to violence in the workplace correlated with male, widowed,and senior (third-year) residents.

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes important evidence regarding changes in the perception, attitude, and self-efficacy of subjects following both the SBME + BE and SBME interventions among medical residents in coping with workplace violence, the biggest perception change having been recorded after the SBME + BE intervention, which can be explained by the inclusion of behavioural economics.

Do Long-Run Disasters Promote Human Capital in China? -The Impact of 500 Years of Natural Disasters on County-Level Human-Capital Accumulation

Is there a relationship between the frequency of regional natural disasters and long-term human-capital accumulation? This article investigates the long-run causality between natural calamities and human-capital accumulation with macro and micro data. Empirical cross-county analysis demonstrates that higher frequencies of natural calamities are correlated with higher rates of human-capital accumulation. Specifically, on the basis of empirical data of the fifth census in 2000 and China's Labor-Force Dynamics Survey in 2012, this paper exploits the two databases to infer that the high disaster frequency in the years of 1500-2000 was likely to increase regional human-capital accumulation on district level. High natural-calamity frequency reduces the expected rate of returning to physical capital, which also serves to increase human-capital. Thus, experiencing with natural disasters would influence human's preference to human-capital investment instead of physical capital.

A formal model of fuzzy-trace theory: Variations on framing effects and the Allais paradox

Fuzzy-trace theory assumes that decision-makers process qualitative "gist" representations and quantitative "verbatim" representations in parallel. We develop a lattice model of fuzzy-trace theory that explains both processes. Specifically, the model provides a novel formalization of how: 1) decision-makers encode multiple representations of options in parallel; 2) representations compete or combine so that choices often turn on the simplest representation of encoded gists; and 3) choices between representations are made based on positive vs. negative valences associated with social and moral principles stored in long-term memory (e.g., saving lives is good). The model integrates effects of individual differences in numeracy, metacognitive monitoring and editing, and sensation seeking. We conducted a systematic review of variations on framing effects and the Allais Paradox, both core phenomena of risky decision-making, and tested whether our model could predict observed choices: The model successfully predicted 82 out of 88 (93%) pairs of studies (comparing gain to loss conditions) demonstrating 16 variations on effects, theoretically critical manipulations that eliminate or exaggerate framing effects. When examining these conditions individually, the model successfully predicted 153 (90%) out of 170 eligible studies. Parameters of the model varied in theoretically meaningful ways with differences in numeracy, metacognitive monitoring, and sensation seeking, accounting for risk preferences at the group level. New experiments show similar results at the individual level. The model is also shown to be scientifically parsimonious using standard measures. Relations to current theories, such as Cumulative Prospect Theory, and potential extensions are discussed.

Fear and trust: How risk perceptions of avian influenza affect Chinese consumers' demand for chicken

This article quantifies the impact of H7N9 bird flu on chicken demand and consumer willingness to pay (WTP) in China. We measure risk perception, fear and trust against actual reduction in consumption and stated change in WTP for safe chicken between 2012 and 2013. Through a survey conducted in each year on the same Chinese urban consumers, we found that the consumption of chicken never increased after the emergence of H7N9 in 2013, and WTP for safe chicken did not necessarily increase relative to generic risks associated with consuming chicken in 2012. Factors such as the fear of H7N9's spreading, the impact of distrust (especially the distrust in government) enhanced the deviation of consumption and WTP; and the sheer mentioning of H7N9 is more important and negative than whether it was associated with a risk-perception reducing or risk-perception elevating message given to consumers.

Human and nature-caused hazards: the affect heuristic causes biased decisions

People are more concerned about the negative consequences of human hazards compared with natural hazards. Results of four experiments show that the same negative outcome (e.g., number of birds killed by an oil spill) was more negatively evaluated when caused by humans than when caused by nature. Results further show that when identical risk information was provided, participants evaluated nuclear power more negatively compared with solar power. The affect associated with the hazard per se influenced the interpretation of the new information. Furthermore, the affect experienced in the situation fully mediated the evaluation of the negative outcomes of a hazard. People's reliance on the affect heuristic is a challenge for acceptance of cost-benefit analyses because equally negative outcomes are differently evaluated depending on the cause. Symbolically significant information and the affect evoked by this information may result in biased and riskier decisions.

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.