MEASURING SELECTION ON A POPULATION OF DAMSELFLIES WITH A MANIPULATED PHENOTYPE

A note on measuring natural selection on principal component scores

Measuring natural selection through the use of multiple regression has transformed our understanding of selection, although the methods used remain sensitive to the effects of multicollinearity due to highly correlated traits. While measuring selection on principal component (PC) scores is an apparent solution to this challenge, this approach has been heavily criticized due to difficulties in interpretation and relating PC axes back to the original traits. We describe and illustrate how to transform selection gradients for PC scores back into selection gradients for the original traits, addressing issues of multicollinearity and biological interpretation. In addition to reducing multicollinearity, we suggest that this method may have promise for measuring selection on high-dimensional data such as volatiles or gene expression traits. We demonstrate this approach with empirical data and examples from the literature, highlighting how selection estimates for PC scores can be interpreted while reducing the consequences of multicollinearity.

Response of adult dragonflies to artificial prey of different size and colour

Aposematism is an evolved, cross-species association between a preys’ unprofitability and the presence of conspicuous signals. Avian predators have been widely employed to understand the evolution of these warning signals However, insect predators are abundant, diverse, and highly visual foragers that have been shown to be capable of learned aversion. Therefore, it is likely that their behaviour also shapes the nature of anti-predator traits. In this study, we evaluated the rates of attack of a community (13 species) of mature adult dragonflies (Odonata) on artificial prey of varying size (2.5–31 mm lengthwise) and colour pattern (black, black/yellow striped). The relative attack rates of dragonflies on prey increased as prey size decreased, but there was no evidence that the attack rates by dragonflies were affected by prey colour pattern and no evidence for an interaction between colour pattern and size. To investigate prey selection by specific predator species under field conditions, we compared the time to attack distributions of black-painted prey presented to two common dragonflies: Leucorrhinia intacta and the larger, Libellula pulchella. We found that the two dragonfly species, as well as the two sexes, had different foraging responses. L. pulchella was more likely to attack larger prey, and females of both species more likely to attack prey than males. Collectively, our results indicate that dragonflies are highly size selective. However, while the nature of this selectivity varies among dragonfly species, there is little evidence that classic black/yellow warning signals deter attack by these aerial invertebrate predators.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OFFSPRING SIZE AND TIMING OF REPRODUCTION ON OFFSPRING REPRODUCTION: EXPERIMENTAL, MATERNAL, AND QUANTITATIVE GENETIC ASPECTS

We demonstrate that egg size in side-blotched lizards is heritable (parent-offspring regressions) and thus will respond to natural selection. Because our estimate of heritability is derived from free-ranging lizards, it is useful for predicting evolutionary response to selection in wild populations. Moreover, our estimate for the heritability of egg size is not likely to be confounded by nongenetic maternal effects that might arise from egg size per se because we estimate a significant parent-offspring correlation for egg size in the face of dramatic experimental manipulation of yolk volume of the egg. Furthermore, we also demonstrate a significant correlation between egg size of the female parent and clutch size of her offspring. Because this correlation is not related to experimentally induced maternal effects, we suggest that it is indicative of a genetic correlation between egg size and clutch size. We synthesize our results from genetic analyses of the trade-off between egg size and clutch size with previously published experiments that document the mechanistic basis of this trade-off. Experimental manipulation of yolk volume has no effect on offspring reproductive traits such as egg size, clutch size, size at maturity, or oviposition date. However, egg size was related to offspring survival during adult phases of the life history. We partitioned survival of offspring during the adult phase of the life history into (1) survival of offspring from winter emergence to the production of the first clutch (i.e., the vitellogenic phase of the first clutch), and (2) survival of the offspring from the production of the first clutch to the end of the reproductive season. Offspring from the first clutch of the reproductive season in the previous year had higher survival during vitellogenesis of their first clutch if these offspring came from small eggs. We did not observe selection during these prelaying phases of adulthood for offspring from later clutches. However, we did find that later clutch offspring from large eggs had the highest survival over the first season of reproduction. The differences in selection on adult survival arising from maternal effects would reinforce previously documented selection that favors the production of small offspring early in the season and large offspring later in the season-a seasonal shift in maternal provisioning. We also report on a significant parent-offspring correlation in lay date and thus significant heritable variation in lay date. We can rule out the possibility of yolk volume as a confounding maternal effect-experimental manipulation of yolk volume has no effect on lay date of offspring. However, we cannot distinguish between genetic effects (i.e., heritable) and nongenetic maternal effects acting on lay date that arise from the maternal trait lay date per se (or other unidentified maternal traits). Nevertheless, we demonstrate how the timing of female reproduction (e.g., date of oviposition and date of hatching) affect reproductive attributes of offspring. Notably, we find that date of hatching has effects on body size at maturity and fecundity of offspring from later clutches. We did not detect comparable effects of lay date on offspring from the first clutch.

MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF PAIRING SUCCESS, EXTRA-PAIR COPULATIONS AND MATE QUALITY ON THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEXUAL SELECTION

Sexual selection can act through variation in the number of social mates obtained, variation in mate quality, or variation in success at obtaining extra-pair fertilizations. Because within-pair fertilizations (WPF) and extra-pair fertilizations (EPF) are alternate routes of reproduction, they are additive, rather than multiplicative, components of fitness. We present a method for partitioning total variance in reproductive success (a measure of the opportunity for selection) when fitness components are both additive and multiplicative and use it to partition the variance into components that correspond to each mechanism of sexual selection. Computer simulations show that extra-pair fertilizations can either increase or decrease total variance, depending on the covariance between within-pair and extra-pair success. Simulations also suggest that for socially monogamous species, extra-pair fertilizations have a greater effect than variation in mate quality or pairing status on the opportunity for selection. Application of our model to data gathered for a population of red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) indicates that most of the variance in male reproductive success was attributable to within-pair sources of variance. Nevertheless, extra-pair copulations increased the opportunity for selection because males varied both in the proportion of their social young that they sired and in the number of extra-pair mates that they obtained. Furthermore, large and positive covariances existed between the number of extra-pair mates a male obtained and both social pairing success and within-pair paternity, indicating that, in this population, males preferred as social mates also were preferred as extra-pair mates.

Linking biomechanics and ecology through predator–prey interactions: flight performance of dragonflies and their prey

Aerial predation is a highly complex, three-dimensional flight behavior that affects the individual fitness and population dynamics of both predator and prey. Most studies of predation adopt either an ecological approach in which capture or survival rates are quantified, or a biomechanical approach in which the physical interaction is studied in detail. In the present study, we show that combining these two approaches provides insight into the interaction between hunting dragonflies (Libellula cyanea) and their prey (Drosophila melanogaster) that neither type of study can provide on its own. We performed >2500 predation trials on nine dragonflies housed in an outdoor artificial habitat to identify sources of variability in capture success, and analyzed simultaneous predator–prey flight kinematics from 50 high-speed videos. The ecological approach revealed that capture success is affected by light intensity in some individuals but that prey density explains most of the variability in success rate. The biomechanical approach revealed that fruit flies rarely respond to approaching dragonflies with evasive maneuvers, and are rarely successful when they do. However, flies perform random turns during flight, whose characteristics differ between individuals, and these routine, erratic turns are responsible for more failed predation attempts than evasive maneuvers. By combining the two approaches, we were able to determine that the flies pursued by dragonflies when prey density is low fly more erratically, and that dragonflies are less successful at capturing them. This highlights the importance of considering the behavior of both participants, as well as their biomechanics and ecology, in developing a more integrative understanding of organismal interactions.

Dynamics of animal movement in an ecological context: dragonfly wing damage reduces flight performance and predation success

Much of our understanding of the control and dynamics of animal movement derives from controlled laboratory experiments. While many aspects of animal movement can be probed only in these settings, a more complete understanding of animal locomotion may be gained by linking experiments on relatively simple motions in the laboratory to studies of more complex behaviours in natural settings. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we examined the effects of wing damage on dragonfly flight performance in both a laboratory drop-escape response and the more natural context of aerial predation. The laboratory experiment shows that hindwing area loss reduces vertical acceleration and average flight velocity, and the predation experiment demonstrates that this type of wing damage results in a significant decline in capture success. Taken together, these results suggest that wing damage may take a serious toll on wild dragonflies, potentially reducing both reproductive success and survival.

The strength of phenotypic selection in natural populations

How strong is phenotypic selection on quantitative traits in the wild? We reviewed the literature from 1984 through 1997 for studies that estimated the strength of linear and quadratic selection in terms of standardized selection gradients or differentials on natural variation in quantitative traits for field populations. We tabulated 63 published studies of 62 species that reported over 2,500 estimates of linear or quadratic selection. More than 80% of the estimates were for morphological traits; there is very little data for behavioral or physiological traits. Most published selection studies were unreplicated and had sample sizes below 135 individuals, resulting in low statistical power to detect selection of the magnitude typically reported for natural populations. The absolute values of linear selection gradients |beta| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of 0.16, suggesting that strong directional selection was uncommon. The values of |beta| for selection on morphological and on life-history/phenological traits were significantly different: on average, selection on morphology was stronger than selection on phenology/life history. Similarly, the values of |beta| for selection via aspects of survival, fecundity, and mating success were significantly different: on average, selection on mating success was stronger than on survival. Comparisons of estimated linear selection gradients and differentials suggest that indirect components of phenotypic selection were usually modest relative to direct components. The absolute values of quadratic selection gradients |gamma| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of only 0.10, suggesting that quadratic selection is typically quite weak. The distribution of gamma values was symmetric about 0, providing no evidence that stabilizing selection is stronger or more common than disruptive selection in nature.

Estimates of the Average Strength of Natural Selection Are Not Inflated by Sampling Error or Publication Bias

Kingsolver et al.'s review of phenotypic selection gradients from natural populations provided a glimpse of the form and strength of selection in nature and how selection on different organisms and traits varies. Because this review's underlying database could be a key tool for answering fundamental questions concerning natural selection, it has spawned discussion of potential biases inherent in the review process. Here, we explicitly test for two commonly discussed sources of bias: sampling error and publication bias. We model the relationship between variance among selection gradients and sample size that sampling error produces by subsampling large empirical data sets containing measurements of traits and fitness. We find that this relationship was not mimicked by the review data set and therefore conclude that sampling error does not bias estimations of the average strength of selection. Using graphical tests, we find evidence for bias against publishing weak estimates of selection only among very small studies (N<38). However, this evidence is counteracted by excess weak estimates in larger studies. Thus, estimates of average strength of selection from the review are less biased than is often assumed. Devising and conducting straightforward tests for different biases allows concern to be focused on the most troublesome factors.

Amphibian lipid levels at metamorphosis correlate to post-metamorphic terrestrial survival

In organisms that have complex life cycles, factors in the larval environment may affect both larval and adult traits. For amphibians, the postmetamorphic transition from the aquatic environment to terrestrial habitat may be a period of high juvenile mortality. We hypothesized that lipid stores at metamorphosis may affect an animal's success during this critical transition period. We examined variation in total lipid levels among years and sites in recently metamorphosed individuals of two pond-breeding salamander species, the marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) and the mole salamander (A. talpoideum), with limited data for one anuran species (southern leopard frog, Rana sphenocephala). Lipid levels were allometrically related to body size and ranged from 1.9 to 23.8% of body dry mass. The two salamander species differed in lipid allocation patterns, with A. opacum apportioning a higher percentage of total lipid reserves into fat bodies than A. talpoideum. Species differences in lipid allocation patterns may primarily reflect that large metamorphs will mature as one-year olds, and, regardless of species, will alter lipid compartmentalization accordingly. We used mark-recapture data obtained at drift fences encircling breeding ponds for 13 A. opacum cohorts to estimate the proportion of postmetamorphic individuals that survived to breed (age 1-4) and the mean age at first reproduction. Regression models indicated that size-corrected lipid level at metamorphosis (i.e., lipid residuals), and to a lesser extent rainfall following metamorphosis, was positively related to adult survival. Snout-vent length at metamorphosis was negatively related to age at first reproduction. We suggest that lipid stores at metamorphosis are vital to juvenile survival in the months following the transition from aquatic to terrestrial habitat, and that a trade-off shaped by postmetamorphic selection in the terrestrial habitat exists between allocation to energy stores versus structural growth in the larval environment.

Larval density and the Charnov–Bull model of adaptive environmental sex determination in a copepod

Charnov and Bull suggested that environmentally induced variation in adult body size coupled with sex-specific differences in fitness can select for the evolution of adaptive environmental sex determination (ESD). In this study we determine whether larval density affects sex determination in the copepod Tigriopus californicus (Baker, 1912), as predicted by Charnov and Bull. Individuals reared at low densities developed faster and were significantly larger than siblings reared at high densities. For these laboratory-reared individuals, sexual selection on male body size was stronger than fecundity selection on female body size, but this sex-specific pattern of selection was reversed in the field. Differences in food availability (for females) and the mode of competition (for males) may account for the conflicting results between laboratory and field. We found a weak effect of larval density on sex determination in a pilot experiment but no effect in a second, more powerful experiment. While larval density did not affect the sex ratio of T. californicus, our sex-specific estimates of selection on adult body size will inform future models of adaptive ESD in this species and other copepods.

Sequential predator effects across three life stages of the African tree frog, Hyperolius spinigularis

While theoretical studies of the timing of key switch points in complex life cycles such as hatching and metamorphosis have stressed the importance of considering multiple stages, most empirical work has focused on a single life stage. However, the relationship between the fitness components of different life stages may be complex. Ontogenetic switch points such as hatching and metamorphosis do not represent new beginnings--carryover effects across stages can arise when environmental effects on the density and/or traits of early ontogenetic stages subsequently alter mortality or growth in later stages. In this study, I examine the effects of egg- and larval-stage predators on larval performance, size at metamorphosis, and post-metamorphic predation in the African tree frog Hyperolius spinigularis. I monitored the density and survival of arboreal H. spinigularis clutches in the field to estimate how much egg-stage predation reduced the input of tadpoles into the pond. I then conducted experiments to determine: (1) how reductions in initial larval density due to egg predators affect larval survival and mass and age at metamorphosis in the presence and absence of aquatic larval predators, dragonfly larvae, and (2) how differences in mass or age at metamorphosis arising from predation in the embryonic and larval environments affect encounters with post-metamorphic predators, fishing spiders. Reduction in larval densities due to egg predation tended to increase per capita larval survival, decrease larval duration and increase mass at metamorphosis. Larval predators decreased larval survival and had density-dependent effects on larval duration and mass at metamorphosis. The combined effects of embryonic and larval-stage predators increased mass at metamorphosis of survivors by 91%. Larger mass at metamorphosis may have immediate fitness benefits, as larger metamorphs had higher survival in encounters with fishing spiders. Thus, the effects of predators early in ontogeny can alter predation risk even two life stages later.

Molecular population divergence and sexual selection on morphology in the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens)

The importance of sexual selection in population divergence is of much interest, mainly because it is thought to cause reproductive isolation and hence could lead to speciation. Sexually selected traits have been hypothesized to diverge faster between populations than other traits, presumably because of differences in the strength, mechanism or dynamics of selection. We investigated this by quantifying population divergence in eight morphological characters in 12 south Swedish populations of a sexually dimorphic damselfly, the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens). The morphological characters included a secondary sexual character, the male melanized wing spot, which has an important function in both inter- and intrasexual selection. In addition, we investigated molecular population divergence, revealed by amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis. Molecular population divergence was highly significant among these Northern European populations (overall F(st)=0.054; pairwise population F(st)'s ranged from approximately 0 to 0.13). We found evidence for isolation-by-distance (r=0.70) for the molecular markers and a significant correlation between molecular and phenotypic population divergence (r=0.39). One interpretation is that population divergence for the AFLP loci are affected by genetic drift, but is also indirectly influenced by selection, due to linkage with loci for the phenotypic traits. Field estimates of sexual and natural selection from two of the populations revealed fairly strong sexual selection on wing spot length, indicating that this trait has the potential to rapidly diverge, provided that variation is heritable and the observed selection is chronic.

EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE. I. CLINAL PATTERNS OF SELECTION ALONG AN ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENT IN THE GREAT PLAINS

Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.

Effect of larval body size on overwinter survival and emerging adult size in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus investigator

Body size may influence both adult fecundity and the probability of survival through each life stage. Previous studies of burying beetles (Nicrophorus, Coleoptera: Silphidae) have revealed reproductive advantages for larger adults and the role of parental care in determining larval size and number. In this study I measure the effect of size on survival over the winter period and the correlation between larval size and the size of emerging adults. I collected data from 24 groups of 20–25 larvae sorted by size and overwintered outside under natural conditions in Colorado, U.S.A. There was a significant positive correlation between larval size and adult size at emergence and a significant effect of size on overwinter survival. Data from 2 years yielded the following mean survival rates: small, 47.3 ± 1.0%; medium, 73.2 ± 0.7%; large, 85.7 ± 0.4%. These values were then used to accurately predict adult emergence from broods of larvae whose range of size was measured prior to the overwinter period. The results indicate that selection for large body size may result from an overwinter survival advantage and not just from reproductive success. This has implications for fitness models of parental care and models of population dynamics.

Mark-recapture estimates of daily survival rates of two damselflies (Coenagrion puella and Ischnura elegans)

Male-biased operational sex ratios are very common in sexually mature dragonflies. These may be due to differential survival or differences in time spent at the breeding site by the sexes. Because most studies are carried out at the breeding site, these two processes can be measured as survival rates or recapture rates using modern capture–mark–recapture methods. We marked 66 female and 233 male Coenagrion puella, and 137 female and 347 male Ischnura elegans during three capture periods spread over 18 days. Each time an animal was recaptured it was re-marked so that the capture history of any captured animal could be readily identified. We recaptured 131 C. puella and 55 I. elegans at least once. We used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to estimate the daily probability of survival and recapture. The probability of recapture was, on average, more than three times higher for male C. puella (0.489) than females (0.133) with significant day to day variation. The daily probability of survival did not differ significantly between the sexes (0.860), with no significant variation among days. In contrast, in I. elegans the probability of recapture did not differ between the sexes (0.139 for the first 5 days; between 0.032 and 0.287 for the final 3 days), but the daily probability of surviving was much higher for males (0.812) than for females (0.579). Assuming that the sex ratio was unity at sexual maturity, the recapture and survival rates predicted well the sex ratio of the sample of C. puella but predicted more males than were observed in the sample of I. elegans. This suggests that male I. elegans may suffer higher mortality than females in the immature stage.

THE FITNESS OF MANIPULATING PHENOTYPES: IMPLICATIONS FOR STUDIES OF FLUCTUATING ASYMMETRY AND MULTIVARIATE SELECTION

Phenotypic manipulation (or phenotypic engineering) that alters trait distributions provides a way to increase the statistical power of detecting relationships between traits and fitness. Manipulations relying on plastic responses, however, assume a specific relationship between the perturbation and the alteration of the traits when multiple traits are involved. We measured several traits, including condition measured as fluctuating asymmetry, in the ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis under six different diets to examine how altered environments affected multiple traits and their distributions. Although diet affected fluctuating asymmetry, we found no consistent relationship between degree of asymmetry and other phenotypic measures. As expected, individual traits were altered by our treatments. Contrary to expectation, relationships among traits were not constant among diets. Our results suggest that assumptions about the relationship between condition and trait values, especially fluctuating asymmetry, cannot be made. Further, studies that use manipulated phenotypes to statistically determine the form of selection must first demonstrate that the pattern of the phenotypic correlation matrix is not itself altered by the manipulation. If the phenotypic correlation matrix is not constant, then experimental estimates of selection coefficients may not reflect selection that occurs in the wild.

Cannibalism and early instar survival in a larval damselfly

Cannibalism by larval damselflies late in larval development on larvae a few instars smaller has been widely documented. I examine here the survival of eggs oviposited near the end of the flight season of adult Enallagma boreale in the presence and absence of potential cannibals, individuals that hatched from eggs earlier in the season, over an extended part of the life-cycle. The role of competition as a modifier of cannibalism was examined by manipulating egg density, environmental productivity, and habitat complexity. Survival in the absence of potential cannibals ranged from 5% to nearly 50% but was only 0-3% in the presence of cannibals. Survival of small larvae was related to manipulations of habitat complexity but not initial density or resources. There were no significant interactions of the presence of large larvae with other experimental treatments on the survival of small larvae. The mean size of small larvae was greater in the presence of cannibals. This may be because the cannibalism treatment reduced the density of small larvae and reduced competition for resources, or that the cannibals preferentially fed on small larvae and only relatively large individuals remained. Fertilization of the habitat or manipulating the initial density of small larvae did not affect mass of small larvae at the end of the experiment, which would be expected if small larvae were affected by competition for resources. Potential cannibals, however, emerged at higher mass when small larvae were present at low density and when productivity of the habitat was increased. This suggests that the negative effect of competition by small larvae outweighs the positive effect of being potential prey for large larvae.