The Effect of Reducing Opportunities for Downward Comparison on Comparative Optimism

Debiasing Judgements Using a Distributed Cognition Approach: A Scoping Review of Technological Strategies

OBJECTIVE

To review and synthesise research on technological debiasing strategies across domains, present a novel distributed cognition-based classification system, and discuss theoretical implications for the field.

BACKGROUND

Distributed cognition theory is valuable for understanding and mitigating cognitive biases in high-stakes settings where sensemaking and problem-solving are contingent upon information representations and flows in the decision environment. Shifting the focus of debiasing from individuals to systems, technological debiasing strategies involve designing system components to minimise the negative impacts of cognitive bias on performance. To integrate these strategies into real-world practices effectively, it is imperative to clarify the current state of evidence and types of strategies utilised.

METHODS

We conducted systematic searches across six databases. Following screening and data charting, identified strategies were classified into (i) group composition and structure, (ii) information design and (iii) procedural debiasing, based on distributed cognition principles, and cognitive biases, classified into eight categories.

RESULTS

Eighty articles met the inclusion criteria, addressing 100 debiasing investigations and 91 cognitive biases. A majority (80%) of the identified debiasing strategies were reportedly effective, whereas fourteen were ineffective and six were partially effective. Information design strategies were studied most, followed by procedural debiasing, and group structure and composition. Gaps and directions for future work are discussed.

CONCLUSION

Through the lens of distributed cognition theory, technological debiasing represents a reconceptualisation of cognitive bias mitigation, showing promise for real-world application.

APPLICATION

The study results and debiasing classification presented can inform the design of high-stakes work systems to support cognition and minimise judgement errors.

Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members

People can be overly optimistic not only about their own future but also for the people with whom they identify. Furthermore, interpersonal perception generally forms along two universal dimensions, i.e. warmth and competence. In this study, we created four fictional characters that would map onto each quadrant of the two-dimensional space of warmth and competence, i.e. one in-group member (high on both warmth and competence) and three out-group members (high warmth, low competence; high competence, low warmth; low on both warmth and competence). We then asked respondents to assess the likelihood of each character experiencing a series of identical desirable and undesirable events in order to uncover potential optimistic biases. Our study had two goals. First, we wanted to balance the target desirable and undesirable events on four key characteristics, i.e. event frequency, controllability, emotional intensity and personal experience with the event. Second, we wanted to investigate whether stereotypes of warmth and competence could influence the respondents' likelihood estimates for each character. We show that respondents manifested a strong desirability bias, expecting more desirable than undesirable events for the in-group member and the reverse pattern for the extreme out-group member. More important, we show that, within desirable and undesirable events, respondents anchored their judgments for the in-group member on their personal experience with the target events, further revealing an egocentric bias, but turned to stereotypical knowledge in the form of warmth and competence to judge out-group members. Implications for both social perception and optimism research are discussed.

Debiasing Health-Related Judgments and Decision Making: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Being confronted with uncertainty in the context of health-related judgments and decision making can give rise to the occurrence of systematic biases. These biases may detrimentally affect lay persons and health experts alike. Debiasing aims at mitigating these negative effects by eliminating or reducing the biases. However, little is known about its effectiveness. This study seeks to systematically review the research on health-related debiasing to identify new opportunities and challenges for successful debiasing strategies.

METHODS

A systematic search resulted in 2748 abstracts eligible for screening. Sixty-eight articles reporting 87 relevant studies met the predefined inclusion criteria and were categorized and analyzed with regard to content and quality. All steps were undertaken independently by 2 reviewers, and inconsistencies were resolved through discussion.

RESULTS

The majority of debiasing interventions ( n = 60) was at least partially successful. Optimistic biases ( n = 25), framing effects ( n = 14), and base rate neglects ( n = 10) were the main targets of debiasing efforts. Cognitive strategies ( n = 36) such as "consider-the-opposite" and technological interventions ( n = 33) such as visual aids were mainly tested. Thirteen studies aimed at debiasing health care professionals' judgments, while 74 interventions addressed the general population. Studies' methodological quality ranged from 26.2% to 92.9%, with an average rating of 68.7%.

DISCUSSION

In the past, the usefulness of debiasing was often debated. Yet most of the interventions reviewed here are found to be effective, pointing to the utility of debiasing in the health context. In particular, technological strategies offer a novel opportunity to pursue large-scale debiasing outside the laboratory. The need to strengthen the transfer of debiasing interventions to real-life settings and a lack of conceptual rigor are identified as the main challenges requiring further research.

Debiasing comparative optimism and increasing worry for health outcomes

Comparative optimism – feeling at less personal risk for negative outcomes than one’s peers – has been linked to reduced prevention efforts. This study examined a novel debiasing technique aimed at simultaneously reducing both indirectly and directly measured comparative optimism. Before providing direct comparative estimates, participants provided absolute self and peer estimates in a joint format (same computer screen) or a separate format (different computer screens). Relative to the separate format condition, participants in the joint format condition showed (1) lower comparative optimism in absolute/indirect measures, (2) lower direct comparative optimism, and (3) heightened worry. Implications for risk perception screening are discussed.

Optimism, coping style and emotional well-being in cardiac patients

OBJECTIVE

Optimism is associated with superior emotional well-being in people with chronic and acute health problems, possibly because optimists are more likely to implement problem-focused coping. Another interpretation posits that optimism can be a defensive response designed to diminish affective reactions to health problems. The study objective is to investigate this possibility.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional examination of relationships between dispositional and relative optimism, threat avoidance and emotional well-being in 85 cardiac patients.

RESULTS

Blunting, a measure of threat avoidance, was found to be associated with both optimism and emotional well-being, and the common variance was predictive of positive affect. As expected, this link was stronger in people with low self-efficacy for problem-focused coping.

CONCLUSION

These findings support a defensive interpretation of optimism amongst patients with recently-experienced cardiac disease, particularly as the effect was more pronounced in the low self-efficacy subsample. We discuss possible explanations for these findings and implications for the study of coping with serious illness.