Can Invalid Information Be Ignored When It Is Detected?

With the rapid spread of information via social media, individuals are prone to misinformation exposure that they may utilize when forming beliefs. Over five experiments (total N = 815 adults, recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk in the United States), we investigated whether people could ignore quantitative information when they judged for themselves that it was misreported. Participants recruited online viewed sets of values sampled from Gaussian distributions to estimate the underlying means. They attempted to ignore invalid information, which were outlier values inserted into the value sequences. Results indicated participants were able to detect outliers. Nevertheless, participants' estimates were still biased in the direction of the outlier, even when they were most certain that they detected invalid information. The addition of visual warning cues and different task scenarios did not fully eliminate systematic over- and underestimation. These findings suggest that individuals may incorporate invalid information they meant to ignore when forming beliefs.

Capuchin monkeys' (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) categorization of photos of unknown male conspecifics suggests attention to fWHR and a dominance bias

The ability to quickly perceive others' rank minimizes costs by helping individuals behave appropriately when interacting with strangers. Indeed, humans and at least some other species can quickly determine strangers' rank or dominance based only on physical features without observing others' interactions or behavior. Nonhuman primates can determine strangers' ranks by observing their interactions, and some evidence suggests that at least some cues to dominance, such as facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR), are also present in other primates. However, it is unknown whether they can determine strangers' rank simply by looking at their faces, rather than observing their interactions. If so, this would suggest selective pressure across the primates on both cues to dominance and the ability to detect those cues accurately. To address this, we examined the ability of male and female tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus [Cebus] apella) to categorize images of the faces of unknown conspecifics (Sapajus from different colonies) and humans (computer-generated and real) as dominant or nondominant based only on still images. Capuchins' categorization of unknown conspecific faces was consistent with fWHR, a cue to dominance, although there was a strong tendency to categorize strangers as dominant, particularly for males. This was true despite the continued correct categorization of known individuals. In addition, capuchins did not categorize human strangers in accordance with external pre-ratings of dominance by independent human raters, despite the availability of the same cue, fWHR. We consider these results in the context of capuchin socio-ecology and what they mean for the evolution of rapid decision-making in social contexts.

Predicting COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake Using a Small and Interpretable Set of Judgment and Demographic Variables: Cross-Sectional Cognitive Science Study

BACKGROUND

Despite COVID-19 vaccine mandates, many chose to forgo vaccination, raising questions about the psychology underlying how judgment affects these choices. Research shows that reward and aversion judgments are important for vaccination choice; however, no studies have integrated such cognitive science with machine learning to predict COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine the predictive power of a small but interpretable set of judgment variables using 3 machine learning algorithms to predict COVID-19 vaccine uptake and interpret what profile of judgment variables was important for prediction.

METHODS

We surveyed 3476 adults across the United States in December 2021. Participants answered demographic, COVID-19 vaccine uptake (ie, whether participants were fully vaccinated), and COVID-19 precaution questions. Participants also completed a picture-rating task using images from the International Affective Picture System. Images were rated on a Likert-type scale to calibrate the degree of liking and disliking. Ratings were computationally modeled using relative preference theory to produce a set of graphs for each participant (minimum R2>0.8). In total, 15 judgment features were extracted from these graphs, 2 being analogous to risk and loss aversion from behavioral economics. These judgment variables, along with demographics, were compared between those who were fully vaccinated and those who were not. In total, 3 machine learning approaches (random forest, balanced random forest [BRF], and logistic regression) were used to test how well judgment, demographic, and COVID-19 precaution variables predicted vaccine uptake. Mediation and moderation were implemented to assess statistical mechanisms underlying successful prediction.

RESULTS

Age, income, marital status, employment status, ethnicity, educational level, and sex differed by vaccine uptake (Wilcoxon rank sum and chi-square P<.001). Most judgment variables also differed by vaccine uptake (Wilcoxon rank sum P<.05). A similar area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was achieved by the 3 machine learning frameworks, although random forest and logistic regression produced specificities between 30% and 38% (vs 74.2% for BRF), indicating a lower performance in predicting unvaccinated participants. BRF achieved high precision (87.8%) and AUROC (79%) with moderate to high accuracy (70.8%) and balanced recall (69.6%) and specificity (74.2%). It should be noted that, for BRF, the negative predictive value was <50% despite good specificity. For BRF and random forest, 63% to 75% of the feature importance came from the 15 judgment variables. Furthermore, age, income, and educational level mediated relationships between judgment variables and vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings demonstrate the underlying importance of judgment variables for vaccine choice and uptake, suggesting that vaccine education and messaging might target varying judgment profiles to improve uptake. These methods could also be used to aid vaccine rollouts and health care preparedness by providing location-specific details (eg, identifying areas that may experience low vaccination and high hospitalization).

Challenges Addressing Lung Cancer Screening for Patients With Multimorbidity in Primary Care: A Qualitative Study

PURPOSE

Many individuals who are eligible for lung cancer screening have comorbid conditions complicating their shared decision-making conversations with physicians. The goal of our study was to better understand how primary care physicians (PCPs) factor comorbidities into their evaluation of the risks and benefits of lung cancer screening and into their shared decision-making conversations with patients.

METHODS

We conducted semistructured interviews by videoconference with 15 PCPs to assess the extent of shared decision-making practices and explore their understanding of the intersection of comorbidities and lung cancer screening, and how that understanding informed their clinical approach to this population.

RESULTS

We identified 3 themes. The first theme was whether to discuss or not to discuss lung cancer screening. PCPs described taking additional steps for individuals with complex comorbidities to decide whether to initiate this discussion and used subjective clinical judgment to decide whether the conversation would be productive and beneficial. PCPs made mental assessments that factored in the patient's health, life expectancy, quality of life, and access to support systems. The second theme was that shared decision making is not a simple discussion. When PCPs did initiate discussions about lung cancer screening, although some believed they could provide objective information, others struggled with personal biases. The third theme was that ultimately, the decision to be screened was up to the patient. Patients had the final say, even if their decision was discordant with the PCP's advice.

CONCLUSIONS

Shared decision-making conversations about lung cancer screening differed substantially from the standard for patients with complex comorbidities. Future research should include efforts to characterize the risks and benefits of LCS in patients with comorbidities to inform guidelines and clinical application.

Toward a General Framework of Biased Reasoning: Coherence-Based Reasoning

A considerable amount of experimental research has been devoted to uncovering biased forms of reasoning. Notwithstanding the richness and overall empirical soundness of the bias research, the field can be described as disjointed, incomplete, and undertheorized. In this article, we seek to address this disconnect by offering "coherence-based reasoning" as a parsimonious theoretical framework that explains a sizable number of important deviations from normative forms of reasoning. Represented in connectionist networks and processed through constraint-satisfaction processing, coherence-based reasoning serves as a ubiquitous, essential, and overwhelmingly adaptive apparatus in people's mental toolbox. This adaptive process, however, can readily be overrun by bias when the network is dominated by nodes or links that are incorrect, overweighted, or otherwise nonnormative. We apply this framework to explain a variety of well-established biased forms of reasoning, including confirmation bias, the halo effect, stereotype spillovers, hindsight bias, motivated reasoning, emotion-driven reasoning, ideological reasoning, and more.

Can knowledgeable experts assess costs and outcomes as if they were ignorant? An experiment within precision medicine evaluation

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the standard approach in expert judgment for evaluating precision medicines, in which experts are required to estimate outcomes as if they did not have access to diagnostic information, whereas in fact, they do.

METHODS

Fourteen clinicians participated in an expert judgment task to estimate the cost and medical outcomes of the use of exome sequencing in pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy in Thailand. Experts were randomly assigned to either an "unblind" or "blind" group; the former was provided with the exome sequencing results for each patient case prior to the judgment task, whereas the latter was not provided with the exome sequencing results. Both groups were asked to estimate the outcomes for the counterfactual scenario, in which patients had not been tested by exome sequencing.

RESULTS

Our study did not show significant results, possibly due to the small sample size of both participants and case studies.

CONCLUSIONS

A comparison of the unblind and blind approach did not show conclusive evidence that there is a difference in outcomes. However, until further evidence suggests otherwise, we recommend the blind approach as preferable when using expert judgment to evaluate precision medicines because this approach is more representative of the counterfactual scenario than the unblind approach.

Comedy as dissonant rhetoric

This article considers the normative and critical value of popular comedy. I begin by assembling and evaluating a range of political theory literature on comedy. I argue that popular comedy can be conducive to both critical and transformative democratic effects, but that these effects are contingent on the way comedic performances are received by audiences. I illustrate this by means of a case study of a comedic climate change 'debate' from the television show, Last Week Tonight. Drawing from recent scholarship on deliberation, judgment and rhetoric, I highlight both critical and transformative dimensions of the performance. I attribute these to the vignette's likely reception, which I describe as 'dissonant' - unresolved, affectively turbulent and aesthetically attuned. I argue that comedy is uniquely positioned to spur such 'dissonant' modes of engagement and, in so doing, to promote acknowledgement and reflective judgment.

Incomparability and Incommensurability in Choice: No Common Currency of Value?

Models of decision-making typically assume the existence of some common currency of value, such as utility, happiness, or inclusive fitness. This common currency is taken to allow comparison of options and to underpin everyday choice. Here we suggest instead that there is no universal value scale, that incommensurable values pervade everyday choice, and hence that most existing models of decision-making in both economics and psychology are fundamentally limited. We propose that choice objects can be compared only with reference to specific but nonuniversal "covering values." These covering values may reflect decision-makers' goals, motivations, or current states. A complete model of choice must accommodate the range of possible covering values. We show that abandoning the common-currency assumption in models of judgment and decision-making necessitates rank-based and "simple heuristics" models that contrast radically with conventional utility-based approaches. We note that if there is no universal value scale, then Arrow's impossibility theorem places severe bounds on the rationality of individual decision-making and hence that there is a deep link between the incommensurability of value, inconsistencies in human decision-making, and rank-based coding of value. More generally, incommensurability raises the question of whether it will ever be possible to develop single-quantity-maximizing models of decision-making.

The "Partial Innocence" Effect: False Guilty Pleas to Partially Unethical Behaviors

Although research has focused on the "innocence problem," "partial innocence" may also plague individuals who plead guilty to crimes they did not commit, but that are either comparable, more severe, or less severe than their actual crimes. Using a high-stake experimental paradigm and an immersive role-playing paradigm, we examined the psychology of partial innocence. Students were randomly induced (or imagined themselves) to be innocent, guilty, or partially innocent of committing an academic transgression and then given the choice to accept or reject a deal to avoid disciplinary sanction. Across three studies (Ns = 88, 75, 746), partially innocent students pled to cheating nearly as often as guilty students and vastly more often than innocent students. Partially innocent students-not unlike guilty students-experienced greater feelings of guilt than did innocent students. In turn, these feelings of guilt, but not shame, were associated with taking responsibility for a range of transgressions not committed.

Face coverings differentially alter valence judgments of emotional expressions

Face masks that prevent disease transmission obscure facial expressions, impairing nonverbal communication. We assessed the impact of lower (masks) and upper (sunglasses) face coverings on emotional valence judgments of clearly valenced (fearful, happy) and ambiguously valenced (surprised) expressions, the latter of which have both positive and negative meaning. Masks, but not sunglasses, impaired judgments of clearly valenced expressions compared to faces without coverings. Drift diffusion models revealed that lower, but not upper, face coverings slowed evidence accumulation and affected differences in non-judgment processes (i.e., stimulus encoding, response execution time) for all expressions. Our results confirm mask-interference effects in nonverbal communication. The findings have implications for nonverbal and intergroup communication, and we propose guidance for implementing strategies to overcome mask-related interference.

Discrepancies in perception of fall risk between patients with subacute stroke and physical therapists in a rehabilitation hospital: a retrospective cohort study

Objective: Falls are one of the most common complications of a stroke. This study aimed to clarify the discrepancy between the perceived fall risk of hospitalized patients with stroke and the clinical judgment of physical therapists and to examine the changes in discrepancy during hospitalization. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Patients: This study included 426 patients with stroke admitted to a Japanese convalescent rehabilitation hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. Methods: The Falls Efficacy Scale-International was used to assess both patients' and physical therapists' perception of fall risk. The difference in Falls Efficacy Scale-International scores assessed by patients and physical therapists was defined as the discrepancy in fall risk, and its association with the incidence of falls during hospitalization was investigated. Results: Patients had a lower perception of fall risk than physical therapists at admission (p < 0.001), and this trend continued at discharge (p < 0.001). The discrepancy in fall risk perception was reduced at discharge for non-fallers and single fallers (p < 0.001), whereas the difference remained in multiple fallers. Conclusion: Unlike physical therapists, patients underestimated their fall risk, especially patients who experienced multiple falls. These results may be useful for planning measures to prevent falls during hospitalization.

Do Misconceptions About Health-Related Quality of Life Affect General Population Valuations of Health States?

OBJECTIVES

Healthcare resource allocation decisions are often informed by the expected gains in patients' quality-adjusted life-years. Misconceptions about ill-health's consequences for quality of life (QOL) may however affect evaluations of health states by the general population and hence affect resource allocation decisions informed by quality-adjusted life-years. We examine whether people selectively misestimate the QOL consequences of moderate anxiety or depression compared with other dimensions of health, and we test whether informing people of actual changes in QOL associated with health states changes appraisals of their relative undesirability.

METHODS

UK general population participants (N = 1259; in 2017) expressed preferences over moderate problems: anxiety or depression, self-care, and pain or discomfort. A randomized control trial design was used whereby a control group was given a functional description of each health state, and 2 intervention groups were additionally given information on the actual differences in either life satisfaction (LS) or day affect (DA) associated with experiencing each health state.

RESULTS

The LS (DA) group reported a higher preference for avoiding living with moderate anxiety or depression, being 13.4% (13.9%) more likely to choose it as most undesirable.

CONCLUSION

Informing people of the change in LS or DA associated with health states before they appraise them is a feasible way to obtain informed preferences.

Educators as Judges: Applying Judicial Decision-Making Principles to High-Stakes Education Assessment Decisions

Phenomenon: Programmatic assessment and competency-based education have highlighted the need to make robust high-stakes assessment decisions on learner performance from evidence of varying types and quality. Without guidance, lengthy deliberations by decision makers and competence committees can end inconclusively with unresolved concerns. These decisional dilemmas are heightened by their potential impacts. For learners, erroneous decisions may lead to an unjustified exit from a long-desired career, or premature promotion to clinical responsibilities. For educators, there is the risk of wrongful decision-making, leading to successful appeals and mistrust. For communities, ill-prepared graduates risk the quality and safety of care. Approaches such as psychometric analyses are limited when decision-makers are faced with seemingly contradictory qualitative and quantitative evidence about the same individual. Expertise in using such evidence to make fair and defensible decisions is well established in judicial practice but is yet to be practically applied to assessment decision-making. Approach: Through interdisciplinary exchange, we investigated medical education and judicial perspectives on decision-making to explore whether principles of decision-making in law could be applied to educational assessment decision-making. Using Dialogic Inquiry, an iterative process of scholarly and mutual critique, we contrasted assessment decision making in medical education with judicial practice to identify key principles in judicial decision-making relevant to educational assessment decisions. We developed vignettes about common but problematic high-stakes decision-making scenarios to test how these principles could apply. Findings: Over 14 sessions, we identified, described, and applied four principles for fair, reasonable, and transparent assessment decision-making. These were: The person whose interests are affected has a right to know the case against them, and to be heard.Reasons for the decision should be given.Rules should be transparent and consistently applied.Like cases should be treated alike and unlike cases treated differently.Reflecting our dialogic process, we report findings by separately presenting the medical educator and judicial perspectives, followed by a synthesis describing a preferred approach to decision-making in three vignettes. Insights: Judicial principles remind educators to consider both sides of arguments, to be consistent, and to demonstrate transparency when making assessment decisions. Dialogic Inquiry is a useful approach for generating interdisciplinary insights on challenges in medical education by critiquing difference (e.g., the meaning of objectivity) and achieving synthesis where possible (e.g., fairness is not equal treatment of all cases). Our principles and exemplars provide groundwork for promoting good practice and furthering assessment research toward fairer and more robust decisions that will assist learning.

Misplaced Intuitions in Interventions to Reduce Attractiveness-Based Discrimination

Individuals and organizations are increasing efforts to address discrimination. Nonexperts may lack awareness of, or are resistant to, scientifically informed strategies for reducing discrimination, instead relying on intuition. Five studies investigated the accuracy of nonexperts' intuitions about reducing discrimination concerning physical attractiveness. In Studies 1a to 1c (N = 902), participants predicted the effectiveness of six interventions to reduce attractiveness-based favoritism on a judgment task. Studies 2a and 2b (N = 6,292) investigated the effectiveness of these interventions. Although two interventions reduced discrimination, intuitions were poorly aligned with actual results; fewer than 1% of participants identified the combination of interventions that did, versus did not, impact judgment, and responses were more likely to be below than above chance when predicting each intervention's effectiveness. Although follow-up work should investigate the accuracy of intuition in other forms of discrimination, these results further stress the need for greater development and adoption of evidence-based strategies for combating discrimination.

Perceptions of Caring Recruitment Among Older Adults: African Americans and Non-Latinx Whites

BACKGROUND

African Americans (AAs) are underrepresented in health-related research studies. Few studies have investigated how behaviors of study recruiters affect recruitment of older AAs versus non-Latinx Whites (NLWs).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to explore whether caring behaviors influence AA and NLW older adults' decision to participate in hypothetical, high-commitment, health-related research studies and differences in participants' enrollment decisions by race.

METHODS

Using a descriptive, cross-sectional study design, guided by Kristen Swanson's middle-range theory of caring, a research-savvy sample of 60 AA and 60 NLW adults (age > 65 years) were randomly assigned one of two written vignettes. The concept of caring behaviors was manipulated and illustrated in a hypothetical recruitment scenario. A participant feedback survey was used to assess (a) participants' perceptions of caring and uncaring behaviors exhibited by the fictitious research recruiter, (b) differences in their willingness to participate based on vignette type, and (c) participants' judgment of the research recruiter as being caring or uncaring. A chi-square test assessed the association among categorical variables (caring behavior and participants' race).

RESULTS

Participants who received the vignette with the high caring recruiter were more than twice as likely to agree to participate in the study than those who received the vignette with the low caring recruiter. AA and NLW participants did not differ in their likelihood to agree to participate. Participants who received the caring vignette and judged the recruiter as caring were 5 times as likely to agree to participate in the high-commitment study than those who received the uncaring vignette ( p < .001). Associations did not vary by race.

DISCUSSION

This experimental study of equally recruited older adults from an existing longitudinal study revealed that caring behaviors in recruitment strategies are associated with an increased likelihood of participation in high-commitment research with older adults. The research-savvy AA participants were just as likely to participate in the hypothetical high-commitment research as their NLW peers when the fictional research recruiter was perceived as having caring behaviors. When targeting specific populations, it is essential to employ nuanced recruitment approaches where the study recruiters are attuned to caring behaviors.

Snapping Out of Autopilot: Overriding Habits in Real Time and the Role of Ventrolateral Prefrontal Cortex

Habits allow environmental and interoceptive cues to trigger behavior in an automatized fashion, making them liable to deployment in inappropriate or outdated contexts. Over the long term, repeated failure of a once-adaptive habit to satisfy current goals produces extinction learning that suppresses the habit's execution. Less attention has been afforded to the mechanisms underlying real-time habit suppression: the capacity to stop the execution of a cued habit that is goal conflicting. Here, I first posit a model by which goal-relevant stimuli can (a) bring unfolding habits and their projected outcomes into awareness, (b) prompt evaluation of the habit outcome with respect to current goals, and (c) trigger cessation of the habit response if it is determined to be goal conflicting. Second, I propose a modified stop-signal task to test this model of goal-directed stopping of habit execution. Finally, I marshal evidence indicating that the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, situated at the nexus of salience detection, action-plan assessment, and motor inhibition networks, is uniquely positioned to coordinate the overriding of habitual behaviors in real time. In sum, this perspective presents a testable model and candidate neurobiological substrate for our capacity to "snap out of autopilot" and override goal-conflicting habits in real time.

Development and psychometric evaluation of the Test of Practical Judgment alternate form (Form B)

The Test of Practical Judgment (TOP-J) is increasingly used by neuropsychologists to measure everyday judgment ability in older adulthood. In the present study, we developed an alternate TOP-J Form B, which may be used to reduce practice effects for repeat assessment situations or in place of the original Form A. In developing the measure, special attention was given to limiting cultural bias and making items similar in content and difficulty to Form A. The TOP-J Form B was piloted in a clinical geriatric sample (N = 77) in the Midwestern U.S. Subsequently, older adults (N = 130) were recruited from several boroughs of New York City and surrounding areas (mean age = 77; mean years of education = 16; 69% female; 28% Black/African-American, 11% Hispanic). In this validation sample, both the 9-item and 15-item versions of the TOP-J Form B showed strong psychometric properties, including good unidimensional model fit in confirmatory factor analysis, preliminary convergent/divergent and criterion validity evidence, and strong inter-rater reliability, ICC (2, 1) = .93. The means and standard deviations for the TOP-J Form A and Form B were highly similar, particularly for the 9-item forms in which there was less than a one-point mean difference. Preliminary normative data for cognitively intact participants (n = 73) were established. We present means and standard deviations that will allow for the calculation of z scores as Form B scores were normally distributed. The newly developed TOP-J Form B should be useful in diverse clinical and research settings.

When Do Observers Deprioritize Due Process for the Perpetrator and Prioritize Safety for the Victim in Response to Information-Poor Allegations of Harm?

We examined how observers assess information-poor allegations of harm (e.g., "my word against yours" cases), in which the outcomes of procedurally fair investigations may favor the alleged perpetrator because the evidentiary standards are unmet. Yet this lack of evidence does not mean no harm occurred, and some observers may be charged with deciding whether the allegation is actionable within a collective. On the basis of theories of moral typecasting, procedural justice, and uncertainty management, we hypothesized that observers would be more likely to prioritize the victim's safety (vs. to prioritize due process for the perpetrator) and view the allegation as actionable when the victim-alleged perpetrator dyad members exhibit features that align with stereotypes of victims and perpetrators. We supported our hypothesis with four studies using various contexts, sources of perceived prototypicality, due-process prioritization, and samples (students from New Zealand, Ns = 137 and 114; Mechanical Turk workers from the United States; Ns = 260 and 336).

Rachlin's extended self: Influences on a Brazilian research group

We pay tribute to Rachlin's work stating that researching and writing for posterity is an act of self-control and altruism. We show how Rachlin's work influenced a series of seminars at the University of São Paulo (Brazil) based on his book from 1989, Judgment, Decision, and Choice. This influence is illustrated through two empirical exercises conducted during our seminars, where students were actively involved in data collection and analysis. The first exercise is about judgment of randomness involving coin tossing. The second is a replication of a procedure by Jones and Rachlin (2006) about social discounting of monetary quantities. We use these empirical examples to highlight some of Rachlin's major contributions to the science of behavior and their implications to our seminars and to ourselves as researchers.

The Effect of Auditory and Visual Recommendations on Choice

We explore the effect of recommendation modality on recommendation adherence. Results from five experiments run on various online platforms (N = 6,103 adults from TurkPrime and Prolific) show that people are more likely to adhere to recommendations that they hear (auditory) than recommendations that they read (visual). This effect persists regardless of whether the auditory recommendation is spoken by a human voice or an automated voice and holds for hypothetical and consequential choices. We show that the effect is in part driven by the relative need for closure-manifested in a sense of urgency-that is evoked by the ephemerality of auditory messages. This work suggests that differences in the physical properties of auditory and visual modalities can lead to meaningful psychological and behavioral consequences.

[Suspension of judgment, play and creativity in helping relationships]

The relational field does not only concern psychiatric professionals. A school teacher has carried out a university research work on the specificity of the psychic processes which are the basis of the helping relationship. Situations experienced in a kindergarten class describe the relational complexity involved, as well as the questioning and doubts of the professional. Finally, constructive approaches propose alternatives for maintaining the link in the relationship.

The effect of faith in intuition on moral judgment: The mediating role of perceived harm

This study aimed to explore the relationship between faith in intuition and moral judgment and the underlying mechanism among Chinese college students using a questionnaire and experimental method. The results showed that levels of faith in intuition predicted more moral wrongness regarding ambiguous hurtful behaviors than unambiguous ones. Additionally, the perceived harm mediated the effect of individuals' levels of faith in intuition on moral wrongness regarding ambiguous harm behaviors but not regarding unambiguous harm behaviors. The results of this study provide empirical evidence on the relationship between faith in intuition and moral judgment in Chinese culture and have implications for future studies of moral judgments.

When Type 2 Processing Misfires: The Indiscriminate Use of Statistical Thinking about Reasoning Problems

Research on dual-process theories of judgment makes abundant use of reasoning problems that present a conflict between Type 1 intuitive responses and Type 2 rule-based responses. However, in many of these reasoning tasks, there is no way to discriminate between the adequate and inadequate use of rules based on logical or probabilistic principles. To experimentally discriminate between the two, we developed a new set of problems: rule-inadequate versions of standard base-rate problems (where base rates are made irrelevant). Across four experiments, we observed conflict sensitivity (measured in terms of response latencies and response confidence) in responses to standard base-rate problems but also in responses to rule-inadequate versions of these problems. This failure to discriminate between real and merely apparent (or spurious) conflict suggests that participants often misuse statistical information and draw conclusions based on irrelevant base rates. We conclude that inferring the sound use of statistical rules from normatively correct responses to standard conflict problems may be unwarranted when this kind of reasoning bias is not controlled for.

The Golden Age Is Behind Us: How the Status Quo Impacts the Evaluation of Technology

New technology invariably provokes concerns over potential societal impacts. Even as risks often fail to materialize, the fear continues. The current research explored the psychological underpinnings of this pattern. Across four studies (N = 2,454 adults recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk), we found evidence for the role of status quo thinking in evaluating technology. In Study 1, we experimentally manipulated the reported age of unfamiliar technology and found that people evaluate it more favorably when it is described as originating before (vs. after) their birth. In Studies 2 through 4, participants' age at the time of invention strongly predicts attitudes toward a wide range of real-world technologies. Finally, we found that individual differences in status-quo-based decision-making moderated evaluations of technology. These studies provide insight into how people respond to the rapidly changing technological landscape.

Loss aversion, the endowment effect, and gain-loss framing shape preferences for noninstrumental information

We often talk about interacting with information as we would with a physical good (e.g., "consuming content") and describe our attachment to personal beliefs in the same way as our attachment to personal belongings (e.g., "holding on to" or "letting go of" our beliefs). But do we in fact value information the way we do objects? The valuation of money and material goods has been extensively researched, but surprisingly few insights from this literature have been applied to the study of information valuation. This paper demonstrates that two fundamental features of how we value money and material goods embodied in Prospect Theory-loss aversion and different risk preferences for gains versus losses-also hold true for information, even when it has no material value. Study 1 establishes loss aversion for noninstrumental information by showing that people are less likely to choose a gamble when the same outcome is framed as a loss (rather than gain) of information. Study 2 shows that people exhibit the endowment effect for noninstrumental information, and so value information more, simply by virtue of "owning" it. Study 3 provides a conceptual replication of the classic "Asian Disease" gain-loss pattern of risk preferences, but with facts instead of human lives, thereby also documenting a gain-loss framing effect for noninstrumental information. These findings represent a critical step in building a theoretical analogy between information and objects, and provide a useful perspective on why we often resist changing (or losing) our beliefs.

Perceptual and Cognitive Judgments Show Both Anchoring and Repulsion

One of the most robust effects in cognitive psychology is anchoring, in which judgments show a bias toward previously viewed values. However, in what is essentially the same task as used in anchoring research, a perceptual illusion demonstrates the opposite effect of repulsion. Here, we united these two literatures, testing in two experiments with adults (total N = 200) whether prior comparative decisions bias cognitive and perceptual judgments in opposing directions or whether anchoring and repulsion are two domain-general biases whose co-occurrence has so far gone undetected. We found that in both perceptual and cognitive tasks, anchoring and repulsion co-occur. Further, the direction of the bias depends on the comparison value: Distant values attract judgments, whereas nearby values repulse judgments. Because none of the leading theories for either effect account for both biases, theoretical integration is needed. As a starting point, we describe one such joint theory based on sampling models of cognition.

Changes in the Prevalence of Thin Bodies Bias Young Women's Judgments About Body Size

Body dissatisfaction is pervasive among young women in Western countries. Among the many forces that contribute to body dissatisfaction, the overrepresentation of thin bodies in visual media has received notable attention. In this study, we proposed that prevalence-induced concept change may be one of the cognitive mechanisms that explain how beauty standards shift. We conducted a preregistered online experiment with young women (N = 419) and found that when the prevalence of thin bodies in the environment increased, the concept of being overweight expanded to include bodies that would otherwise be judged as "normal." Exploratory analyses revealed significant individual differences in sensitivity to this effect, in terms of women's judgments about other bodies as well as their own. These results suggest that women's judgments about other women's bodies are biased by an overrepresentation of thinness and lend initial support to policies designed to increase size-inclusive representation in the media.

Deception Cues During High-Risk Situations: 911 Homicide Calls

During everyday interactions, cues tend to be weakly related to deception. However, there are theoretical reasons to suspect that such cues will be more prominent during high-risk interactions. The current study explored deception cues during one particular high-risk interaction-911 homicide calls placed by adults. In Sample 1, judges coded 911 homicide calls (n = 82) by Q-sorting 86 cues. Results indicated that deceptive callers tended to display emotional cues (e.g., self-dramatizing, moody, worried, emotional, nervous), appeared overwhelmed, and related narratives that lacked structure, clarity, and focus. Judges coded a separate sample of 911 calls (n = 64), and deception scores were computed using a template-matching approach based on the findings from Sample 1. Results indicated that deceptive 911 callers had higher deception scores than honest callers. The effect sizes yielded in this study highlight the relevance of deception cues during high-risk interactions and the usefulness of the person-centered Q-sort method.

Taking a Disagreeing Perspective Improves the Accuracy of People's Quantitative Estimates

Many decisions rest on people's ability to make estimates of unknown quantities. In these judgments, the aggregate estimate of a crowd of individuals is often more accurate than most individual estimates. Remarkably, similar principles apply when multiple estimates from the same person are aggregated, and a key challenge is to identify strategies that improve the accuracy of people's aggregate estimates. Here, we present the following strategy: Combine people's first estimate with their second estimate, made from the perspective of someone they often disagree with. In five preregistered experiments (N = 6,425 adults; N = 53,086 estimates) with populations from the United States and United Kingdom, we found that such a strategy produced accurate estimates (compared with situations in which people made a second guess or when second estimates were made from the perspective of someone they often agree with). These results suggest that disagreement, often highlighted for its negative impact, is a powerful tool in producing accurate judgments.

Numeracy and the Motivational Mind: The Power of Numeric Self-efficacy

BACKGROUND

Objective numeracy appears to support better medical decisions and health outcomes. The more numerate generally understand and use numbers more and make better medical decisions, including more informed medical choices. Numeric self-efficacy-an aspect of subjective numeracy that is also known as numeric confidence-also relates to decision making via emotional reactions to and inferences from experienced difficulty with numbers and via persistence linked with numeric comprehension and healthier behaviors over time. Furthermore, it moderates the effects of objective numeracy on medical outcomes.

PURPOSE

We briefly review the numeracy and decision-making literature and then summarize more recent literature on 3 separable effects of numeric self-efficacy. Although dual-process theories can account for the generally superior decision making of the highly numerate, they have neglected effects of numeric self-efficacy. We discuss implications for medical decision-making (MDM) research and practice. Finally, we propose a modification to dual-process theories, adding a "motivational mind" to integrate the effects of numeric self-efficacy on decision-making processes (i.e., inferences from experienced difficulty with numbers, greater persistence, and greater use of objective-numeracy skills) important to high-quality MDM.

CONCLUSIONS

The power of numeric self-efficacy (confidence) has been little considered in MDM, but many medical decisions and behaviors require persistence to be successful over time (e.g., comprehension, medical-recommendation adherence). Including numeric self-efficacy in research and theorizing will increase understanding of MDM and promote development of better decision interventions.

HIGHLIGHTS

Research demonstrates that objective numeracy supports better medical decisions and health outcomes.The power of numeric self-efficacy (aka numeric confidence) has been little considered but appears critical to emotional reactions and inferences that patients and others make when encountering numeric information (e.g., in decision aids) and to greater persistence in medical decision-making tasks involving numbers.The present article proposes a novel modification to dual-process theory to account for newer findings and to describe how numeracy mechanisms can be better understood.Because being able to adapt interventions to improve medical decisions depends in part on having a good theory, future research should incorporate numeric self-efficacy into medical decision-making theories and interventions.

Dismissing "Don't Know" Responses to Perceived Risk Survey Items Threatens the Validity of Theoretical and Empirical Behavior-Change Research

Since the middle of the 20th century, perceptions of risk have been critical to understanding engagement in volitional behavior change. However, theoretical and empirical risk perception research seldom considers the possibility that risk perceptions do not simply exist: They must be formed. Thus, some people may not have formulated a perception of risk for a hazard at the time a researcher asks them, or they may not be confident in the extent to which their perception matches reality. We describe a decade-long research program that investigates the possibility that some people may genuinely not know their risk of even well-publicized hazards. We demonstrate that indications of not knowing (i.e., "don't know" responses) are prevalent in the U.S. population, are systematically more likely to occur among marginalized sociodemographic groups, and are associated with less engagement in protective health behaviors. "Don't know" responses are likely indications of genuinely limited knowledge and therefore may indicate populations in need of targeted intervention. This body of research suggests that not allowing participants to indicate their uncertainty may threaten the validity and generalizability of behavior-change research. We provide concrete recommendations for scientists to allow participants to express uncertainty and to analyze the resulting data.

Material Benefits Crowd Out Moralistic Punishment

Across four experiments with U.S.-based online participants (N = 1,495 adults), I found that paying people to engage in moralistic punishment reduces their willingness to do so. In an economic game with real stakes, providing a monetary bonus for engaging in third-party punishment of unfair offers nearly cut participants' willingness to do so in half. In judgments of hypothetical transgressions, participants viewed punishers who accepted payment as having worse character and rated the punishers' punitive actions as less morally acceptable. Willingness to engage in punishment was restored if participants were offered large enough payments or were told that punishment accompanied by payment still signals moral virtue. Data were consistent with a signal-corruption mechanism whereby payment interferes with the prosocial signal that moralistic punishment provides about a punisher's motives. These findings have implications for the cultural evolution of punishment and suggest that understanding perpetrators' sociomoral incentives is essential to implementing conflict-reduction policies.

The Cognition/Metacognition Trade-Off

Integration to boundary is an optimal decision algorithm that accumulates evidence until the posterior reaches a decision boundary, resulting in the fastest decisions for a target accuracy. Here, we demonstrated that this advantage incurs a cost in metacognitive accuracy (confidence), generating a cognition/metacognition trade-off. Using computational modeling, we found that integration to a fixed boundary results in less variability in evidence integration and thus reduces metacognitive accuracy, compared with a collapsing-boundary or a random-timer strategy. We examined how decision strategy affects metacognitive accuracy in three cross-domain experiments, in which 102 university students completed a free-response session (evidence terminated by the participant's response) and an interrogation session (fixed number of evidence samples controlled by the experimenter). In both sessions, participants observed a sequence of evidence and reported their choice and confidence. As predicted, the interrogation protocol (preventing integration to boundary) enhanced metacognitive accuracy. We also found that in the free-response sessions, participants integrated evidence to a collapsing boundary-a strategy that achieves an efficient compromise between optimizing choice and metacognitive accuracy.

Computational Methods for Predicting and Understanding Food Judgment

People make subjective judgments about the healthiness of different foods every day, and these judgments in turn influence their food choices and health outcomes. Despite the importance of such judgments, there are few quantitative theories about their psychological underpinnings. This article introduces a novel computational approach that can approximate people's knowledge representations for thousands of common foods. We used these representations to predict how both lay decision-makers (the general population) and experts judge the healthiness of individual foods. We also applied our method to predict the impact of behavioral interventions, such as the provision of front-of-pack nutrient and calorie information. Across multiple studies with data from 846 adults, our models achieved very high accuracy rates (r² = .65-.77) and significantly outperformed competing models based on factual nutritional content. These results illustrate how new computational methods applied to established psychological theory can be used to better predict, understand, and influence health behavior.

Lay people's beliefs about creativity: evidence for an insight bias

Research finds that creative ideas are generated by two cognitive pathways: insight and persistence. However, emerging research suggests people's lay beliefs may not adequately reflect both routes. We propose that people exhibit an insight bias, such that they undervalue persistence and overvalue insight in the creative process.

Cancer pain self-management in the context of a national opioid epidemic: Experiences of patients with advanced cancer using opioids

BACKGROUND

The US opioid epidemic has prompted dramatic changes in public attitudes and regulations governing opioid prescribing. Little is known about the experiences of patients with advanced cancer using opioids in the context of the epidemic.

METHODS

Semistructured interviews of 26 patients with advanced cancer were conducted between May 2019 and April 2020; their experiences self-managing chronic pain with opioids were evaluated.

RESULTS

Patients consistently described the negative impact of the opioid epidemic on their ability to self-manage pain. Negative media coverage and personal experiences with the epidemic promoted stigma, fear, and guilt surrounding opioid use. As a result, many patients delayed initiating opioids and often viewed their decision to take opioids as a moral failure-as "caving in." Patients frequently managed this internal conflict through opioid-restricting behaviors (eg, skipping or taking lower doses). Stigma also impeded patient-clinician communication; patients often avoided discussing opioids or purposely conveyed underusing them to avoid being labeled a "pill seeker." Patients experienced structural barriers to obtaining opioids such as prior authorizations, delays in refills, or being questioned by pharmacists about their opioid use. Barriers were stressful, amplified stigma, interfered with pain control, and reinforced ambivalence about opioids.

CONCLUSIONS

The US opioid epidemic has stigmatized opioid use and undermined pain management in individuals with advanced cancer. Interventions seeking to alleviate cancer pain should attend to the multiple, negative influences of the opioid crisis on patients' ability to self-manage.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with advanced cancer suffer from significant pain and frequently receive opioids to manage their pain. Of the 26 patients with advanced cancer interviewed, the majority of patients experienced stigma about their opioid use for cancer pain management. All patients felt that the opioid epidemic fostered this stigma. Several struggled to use opioids for pain because of this stigma and the logistical complications they experienced with pharmacies and insurance coverage. Many were afraid to share their concerns about opioids with their providers. ​.

Dopamine, religiosity, and utilitarian moral judgment

Our goal was to examine the relationship between biological and sociocultural factors that predict utilitarian moral judgment. Utilitarian moral judgments occur when a specific action is based on the outcome rather than its consistency with social norms. We predicted that (1) individuals with higher levels of dopamine will make more utilitarian decisions and (2) individuals who express greater religiosity will make less utilitarian judgments. We measured dopamine using spontaneous eyeblink rate, an indirect measure associated with striatal dopaminergic transmission. A total of 96 participants completed a utilitarian moral judgment task where they made judgments regarding nonmoral, impersonal, personal low-conflict, and personal high-conflict moral dilemmas. Then, participants completed a questionnaire measuring religiosity. We found a negative relationship between religiosity and the proportion of "yes" judgments participants made in the high-conflict personal dilemmas, which was consistent with our second hypothesis. None of our other hypotheses were supported. Understanding biological and cultural factors that relate to utilitarian moral judgment may also help in developing artificial intelligence that more closely mimic human behavior.

Effect of Dietary Pyrroloquinoline Quinone Disodium Salt on Cognitive Function in Healthy Volunteers: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel-Group Study

BACKGROUND

Cognitive dysfunctions are increasing alarmingly around the world, and researchers are exploring preventive measures for improving brain performance. Pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ), a naturally occurring coenzyme in foods, exhibits potent antioxidant activity, and improves diverse functions which include mitochondrial activation, growth, repair, protection of nerve cells by increased expression of nerve growth factor (NGF) and NGF receptors; and suppression of fibril formation and aggregation of amyloid β.

OBJECTIVE

This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group clinical investigation (RCT) evaluated the efficacy and safety of PQQ disodium salt powder (mnemoPQQ®) for improved cognitive function after 12 weeks of supplementation in healthy Japanese male and female (age 40 to <80 Y).

METHODS

64 healthy subjects were randomly assigned to receive either mnemoPQQ^® (PQQ disodium salt: 21.5 mg/day) or a placebo over a period of 12 weeks. The efficacy of mnemoPQQ^® on cognitive performance (memory, attention, judgment, and cognitive flexibility) was examined using Cognitrax as the primary outcome (primary endpoint), and forgetfulness questionnaire (DECO: Deterioration Cognitive Observee) and Mini-Mental State Examination-Japanese (MMSE-J) as the secondary outcome (secondary endpoint).

RESULTS

A total of 58 subjects (placebo = 31; Age = 70.91 ± 3.06 Y; mnemoPQQ^® group = 27; Age = 72.10 ± 3.77 Y) completed the study over a period of 12 weeks of supplementation. Significant improvements were observed on the Cognitrax's cognitive function domain score on "composite memory", "verbal memory", "reaction time", "complex attention", "cognitive flexibility", "executive function", and "motor speed" in the mnemoPQQ^® group as compared to the placebo group. The DECO and the MMSE-J scores were also significantly improved in the mnemoPQQ^® group. No adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Study demonstrates that supplementation of PQQ disodium salt is useful in improving memory, attention, judgment, and cognitive function, in middle-aged to elderly population, who feel they have become more forgetful because of aging.

Positivity helps the medicine go down: Leveraging framing and affective contexts to enhance the likelihood to take medications

Affect can influence judgments and decision-making in multiple ways. One way is through (a) integral affect, or affect related to the choice at hand, and another way is through (b) incidental affect, or affect unrelated to the choice at hand. Research suggests integral affect influences risk-related decision-making, especially in the context of risky choice framing. However, the role of affect in other forms of framing (e.g., attribute framing) has received little attention. We examined how integral affect (Study 1) along with incidental affect (Study 2) can alter perceptions of risk and likelihood to take hypothetical medications. Participants read pamphlets about medications with unique side effects presented as a gain (e.g., 86% of people who took this medication did not experience nausea) or loss (e.g., 14% of people who took this medication did experience nausea). Study 2 extended Study 1 by manipulating incidental affect through positive, neutral, and negative affective contexts to examine its impact on subsequent evaluations of framed information. Studies 1 and 2 measured positive and negative feelings about medications, risk perceptions, and likelihood of taking medications. Across both studies, gain-framed attributes led to more positive integral affect, subsequently increasing likelihood to take medications, whereas loss-framed attributes led to more negative feelings and increased perceived riskiness of medications. Study 2 found that positive affective contexts indirectly led to an increased likelihood to take medication by increasing positive feelings about the medications. Taken together, leveraging positivity through gain frames and positive contexts could improve adherence to medication plans. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Accuracy of Clinicians' Ability to Predict the Need for Intensive Care Unit Readmission

Rationale: Determining when an intensive care unit (ICU) patient is ready for discharge to the ward is a complex daily challenge for any ICU care team. Patients who experience unplanned readmissions to the ICU have increased mortality, length of stay, and cost compared with those not readmitted during their hospital stay. The accuracy of clinician prediction for ICU readmission is unknown.Objectives: To determine the accuracy of ICU physicians and nurses for predicting ICU readmissionsMethods: We conducted a prospective study in the medical ICU of an academic hospital from October 2015 to September 2017. After daily rounding for patients being transferred to the ward, ICU clinicians (nurses, residents, fellows, and attendings) were asked to report the likelihood of readmission within 48 hours (using a 1-10 scale, with 10 being "extremely likely"). The accuracy of the clinician prediction score (1-10) was assessed for all clinicians and by clinician type using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting the primary outcome, which was ICU readmission within 48 hours of ICU discharge.Results: A total of 2,833 surveys was collected for 938 ICU-to-ward transfers, of which 40 (4%) were readmitted to the ICU within 48 hours of transfer. The median clinician likelihood of readmission score was 3 (interquartile range, 2-4). When physician and nurse likelihood scores were combined, the median clinician likelihood score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.78) for predicting ICU readmission within 48 hours. Nurses were significantly more accurate than interns at predicting 48-hour ICU readmission (AUC, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.64-0.82] vs. AUC, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.49-0.71]; P = 0.03). All other pairwise comparisons were not significantly different for predicting ICU readmission within 48 hours (P > 0.05 for all comparisons).Conclusions: We found that all clinicians surveyed in our ICU, regardless of the level of experience or clinician type, had only fair accuracy for predicting ICU readmission. Further research is needed to determine if clinical decision support tools would provide prognostic value above and beyond clinical judgment for determining who is ready for ICU discharge.

How Do Schoolchildren View Other Children Who Have Discolored Teeth?

Objectives:

Facial look and expression affect how people are viewed by others. This study aimed to evaluate how schoolchildren in the Emirate of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates view their peers who have discolored teeth.

Materials and Methods:

A cross-sectional study using randomized cluster sampling of Sharjah public schools was conducted. A previously developed and validated social attribute questionnaire was utilized to determine children’s dental appearance-related judgments. Children aged 11–14 years were given photographs of subjects either with discolored teeth or without, and they were asked to rate them using six positive and five negative signifiers. The total attribute score (TAS) ranged from 11 (most negative) to 44 (most positive). A linear regression analysis and t-tests were performed to determine the effects of gender and age in mean TAS.

Results:

TAS was significantly lower among discolored teeth photographs when compared with photographs without teeth discoloration (P = 0.004). TAS was found to be significantly higher with increased age (P = 0.035), but gender had no significant effect.

Conclusion:

Teeth discoloration resulted in more negative social judgment between Sharjah schoolchildren and their peers.

Three learning modalities' impact on clinical judgment and perceptions in newly graduated registered nurses: A quasi-experimental study

Newly graduated registered nurses face numerous challenges stemming from high patient workload, complicated interpersonal relationships, and a lack of nursing competence, which can lead to transitional shocks. Clinical judgment and confidence are well-known keys to successful role transitions for these nurses. Simulation training is proposed as a new modality for enhancing comprehensive clinical competence of nurses, but current evidence on the impact of different simulations on nurses' clinical judgment and confidence are still limited or inconsistent. This study compared the impact of three types of learning modalities on newly graduated registered nurses' clinical judgment, perceptions of self-confidence, and evaluations of the design features of the learning modalities. A quasi-experimental design was used. Fifty-nine participants were randomly assigned to three groups: (1) high-fidelity simulation, (2) virtual simulation, and (3) case study. Scales were used after the simulation. The virtual simulation group showed a higher level of clinical judgment. The high-fidelity simulation group felt more confident than the virtual simulation and case study groups. Both the high-fidelity simulation group and virtual simulation group reported higher scores in the domain of fidelity.

Feelings of Culpability: Just Following Orders Versus Making the Decision Oneself

In five experiments (N = 1,490), participants were asked to imagine themselves as programmers of self-driving cars who had to decide how to program the car to respond in a potential accident: spare the driver or spare pedestrians. Alternatively, participants imagined that they were a mayor grappling with difficult moral dilemmas concerning COVID-19. Either they, themselves, had to decide how to program the car or which COVID-19 policy to implement (high-agency condition) or they were told by their superior how to act (low-agency condition). After learning that a tragic outcome occurred because of their action, participants reported their felt culpability. Although we expected people to feel less culpable about the outcome if they acted in accordance with their superior's injunction than if they made the decision themselves, participants actually felt more culpable when they followed their superior's order. Some possible reasons for this counterintuitive finding are discussed.

What Stimuli Are Necessary for Anchoring Effects to Occur?

The anchoring effect is a form of cognitive bias in which exposure to some piece of information affects its subsequent numerical estimation. Previous studies have discussed which stimuli, such as numbers or semantic priming stimuli, are most likely to induce anchoring effects. However, it has not been determined whether anchoring effects will occur when a number is presented alone or when the semantic priming stimuli have an equivalent dimension between a target and the stimuli without a number. We conducted five experimental studies (N = 493) using stimuli to induce anchoring effects. We found that anchoring effects did not occur when a number was presented alone or when phrases to induce semantic priming were used without presenting a number. These results indicate that both numerical and semantic priming stimuli must be presented for anchoring effects to occur. Our findings represent a substantial contribution to the literature on anchoring effects by offering insights into how these effects are generated.

Assessment of judgment ability in a Brazilian sample of patients with mild cognitive impairment and dementia

Judgment is the ability to make sound decisions after consideration of relevant information, possible solutions, likely outcomes, and contextual factors. Loss of judgment is common in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The Test of Practical Judgment (TOP-J) evaluates practical judgment in adults and the elderly, with 15- and 9-item versions that require individuals to listen to scenarios about everyday problems and report their solutions.

Automatic and Fast Encoding of Representational Uncertainty Underlies the Distortion of Relative Frequency

Humans do not have an accurate representation of probability information in the environment but distort it in a surprisingly stereotyped way ("probability distortion"), as shown in a wide range of judgment and decision-making tasks. Many theories hypothesize that humans automatically compensate for the uncertainty inherent in probability information ("representational uncertainty") and probability distortion is a consequence of uncertainty compensation. Here we examined whether and how the representational uncertainty of probability is quantified in the human brain and its relevance to probability distortion behavior. Human subjects (13 female and 9 male) kept tracking the relative frequency of one color of dot in a sequence of dot arrays while their brain activity was recorded by MEG. We found converging evidence from both neural entrainment and time-resolved decoding analysis that a mathematically derived measure of representational uncertainty is automatically computed in the brain, despite it is not explicitly required by the task. In particular, the encodings of relative frequency and its representational uncertainty, respectively, occur at latencies of ∼300 and 400 ms. The relative strength of the brain responses to these two quantities correlates with the probability distortion behavior. The automatic and fast encoding of the representational uncertainty provides neural basis for the uncertainty compensation hypothesis of probability distortion. More generally, since representational uncertainty is closely related to confidence estimation, our findings exemplify how confidence might emerge before perceptual judgment.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Human perception of probabilities and relative frequencies can be markedly distorted, which is a potential source of disastrous decisions. But the brain is not just ignorant of probability; probability distortions are highly patterned and similar across different tasks. Recent theoretical work suggests that probability distortions arise from the brain's compensation of its own uncertainty in representing probability. Is such representational uncertainty really computed in the brain? To answer this question, we asked human subjects to track an ongoing stimulus sequence of relative frequencies and recorded their brain responses using MEG. Indeed, we found that the neural encoding of representational uncertainty accompanies that of relative frequency, although the former is not explicitly required by the task.

The Utility of Clinical Psychology Concepts for Judgment and Decision-Making Research: The Case of Histrionic Features

This research was conducted to highlight the utility of considering clinical psychology concepts in judgment and decision research. Our overarching thesis is that the judgments and choices people make may often be influenced by clinically relevant phenomena, and that understanding these relationships can, in a reciprocal fashion, help advance our understanding of judgment and decision making as well as specific clinical diagnoses and proclivities. We focused on histrionic personality disorder and conducted four studies that show that histrionic symptomology predicts preferences and choices that facilitate grabbing others' attention, even when such choices cost more money, and are at the expense of giving up more tangible features. In addition to demonstrating a new implication of the histrionic personality, we provide insight into the process underlying this tendency and discuss implications for mental health service providers.