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Block S, Levine JM. How Dispersal Evolution and Local Adaptation Affect the Range Dynamics of Species Lagging Behind Climate Change. Am Nat 2021; 197:E173-E187. [PMID: 33989146 DOI: 10.1086/714130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.
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Percolation theory suggests some general features in range margins across environmental gradients. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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3
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Barros C, Palmer SCF, Bocedi G, Travis JMJ. Spread rates on fragmented landscapes: the interacting roles of demography, dispersal and habitat availability. DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ceres Barros
- Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA) University of Grenoble Alpes F‐38000 Grenoble France
- Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA) CNRS F‐38000 Grenoble France
| | - Stephen C. F. Palmer
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Justin M. J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
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4
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Heikkinen RK, Bocedi G, Kuussaari M, Heliölä J, Leikola N, Pöyry J, Travis JMJ. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion. PLoS One 2014; 9:e108436. [PMID: 25265281 PMCID: PMC4180940 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2014] [Accepted: 08/26/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species’ capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Risto K Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Justin M J Travis
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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Duputié A, Massol F. An empiricist's guide to theoretical predictions on the evolution of dispersal. Interface Focus 2014; 3:20130028. [PMID: 24516715 DOI: 10.1098/rsfs.2013.0028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Dispersal, the tendency for organisms to reproduce away from their parents, influences many evolutionary and ecological processes, from speciation and extinction events, to the coexistence of genotypes within species or biological invasions. Understanding how dispersal evolves is crucial to predict how global changes might affect species persistence and geographical distribution. The factors driving the evolution of dispersal have been well characterized from a theoretical standpoint, and predictions have been made about their respective influence on, for example, dispersal polymorphism or the emergence of dispersal syndromes. However, the experimental tests of some theories remain scarce partly because a synthetic view of theoretical advances is still lacking. Here, we review the different ingredients of models of dispersal evolution, from selective pressures and types of predictions, through mathematical and ecological assumptions, to the methods used to obtain predictions. We provide perspectives as to which predictions are easiest to test, how theories could be better exploited to provide testable predictions, what theoretical developments are needed to tackle this topic, and we place the question of the evolution of dispersal within the larger interdisciplinary framework of eco-evolutionary dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne Duputié
- UMR 5175 CEFE, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CNRS) , 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier cedex 05 34293 , France
| | - François Massol
- UMR 5175 CEFE, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CNRS) , 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier cedex 05 34293 , France
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Adams TP, Miller RG, Aleynik D, Burrows MT. Offshore marine renewable energy devices as stepping stones across biogeographical boundaries. J Appl Ecol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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7
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8
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Hargreaves AL, Eckert CG. Evolution of dispersal and mating systems along geographic gradients: implications for shifting ranges. Funct Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anna L. Hargreaves
- Department of Biology; Queen's University; Kingston Ontario K7L 3N6 Canada
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Urban MC, Zarnetske PL, Skelly DK. Moving forward: dispersal and species interactions determine biotic responses to climate change. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2013; 1297:44-60. [DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mark C. Urban
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Connecticut; Storrs; Connecticut
| | - Phoebe L. Zarnetske
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Yale University; New Haven; Connecticut
| | - David K. Skelly
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Yale University; New Haven; Connecticut
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Prasad AM, Gardiner JD, Iverson LR, Matthews SN, Peters M. Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:2196-208. [PMID: 23526802 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2012] [Accepted: 02/15/2013] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi-equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10-20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anantha M Prasad
- Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH 43015, USA.
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11
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Mustin K, Dytham C, Benton TG, Travis JMJ. Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology; University of York; York; YO10 5DD; UK
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Institute of Integrative and Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds; LS2 9JT; UK
| | - Justin M. J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue; Aberdeen; AB24 2TZ; UK
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Eco-evolutionary dynamics of range shifts: elastic margins and critical thresholds. J Theor Biol 2012; 321:1-7. [PMID: 23246816 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.12.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2012] [Revised: 11/27/2012] [Accepted: 12/05/2012] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
It is widely recognised that the response of a population to environmental change will be determined by the eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal. Here, modelling the evolution of dispersal distance within a species structured across an environmental gradient yields some important general insights. First, it demonstrates that 'elastic' ranges are more likely features of range-shifting dynamics than has been recently reported; when dispersal distance, rather than simply emigration rate, is modelled elastic ranges occur regardless of the nature of the environmental gradient. Second, we start to identify critical survival thresholds beyond which even the evolution of greater dispersal distance is unlikely to rescue a population. The position of such thresholds depends on a combination of genetic, demographic and environmental parameters. We find simulated species rarely survive if the location of the range front of a range-shift falls behind the optimal environmental conditions of the species. Should similar thresholds exist for real species aggressive conservation actions such as assisted colonisation are likely to be required to reduce the risk of extinction. We believe simple models, such as the one presented in this study, will be essential for providing a theoretical underpinning for more tactical eco-evolutionary models and informing conservation strategies to be employed under rapid climate change.
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Chidawanyika F, Mudavanhu P, Nyamukondiwa C. Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions. INSECTS 2012; 3:1171-89. [PMID: 26466733 PMCID: PMC4553570 DOI: 10.3390/insects3041171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2012] [Revised: 10/08/2012] [Accepted: 10/12/2012] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank Chidawanyika
- Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, Wits 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Pride Mudavanhu
- Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology, Faculty of AgriSciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa.
| | - Casper Nyamukondiwa
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST). Private Bag BO 041 Bontleng, Gaborone, Botswana.
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Boeye J, Travis JMJ, Stoks R, Bonte D. More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance. Evol Appl 2012; 6:353-64. [PMID: 23467649 PMCID: PMC3586623 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2012] [Accepted: 08/07/2012] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeroen Boeye
- Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Ghent University Ghent, Belgium
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15
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Singer A, Travis JMJ, Johst K. Interspecific interactions affect species and community responses to climate shifts. OIKOS 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.20465.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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16
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Elliott EC, Cornell SJ. Dispersal polymorphism and the speed of biological invasions. PLoS One 2012; 7:e40496. [PMID: 22911701 PMCID: PMC3401290 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2012] [Accepted: 06/08/2012] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The speed at which biological range expansions occur has important consequences for the conservation management of species experiencing climate change and for invasion by exotic organisms. Rates of dispersal and population growth are known to affect the speed of invasion, but little is known about the effect of having a community of dispersal phenotypes on the rate of range expansion. We use reaction-diffusion equations to model the invasion of a species with two dispersal phenotypes into a previously unoccupied landscape. These phenotypes differ in both their dispersal rate and population growth rate. We find that the presence of both phenotypes can result in faster range expansions than if only a single phenotype were present in the landscape. For biologically realistic parameters, the invasion can occur up to twice as fast as a result of this polymorphism. This has implications for predicting the speed of biological invasions, suggesting that speeds cannot just be predicted from looking at a single phenotype and that the full community of phenotypes needs to be taken into consideration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth C Elliott
- Institute of Integrative and Comparative Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
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17
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Bocedi G, Heinonen J, Travis JMJ. Uncertainty and the Role of Information Acquisition in the Evolution of Context-Dependent Emigration. Am Nat 2012; 179:606-20. [DOI: 10.1086/665004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Bartoń KA, Hovestadt T, Phillips BL, Travis JMJ. Risky movement increases the rate of range expansion. Proc Biol Sci 2011; 279:1194-202. [PMID: 21957132 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.1254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The movement rules used by an individual determine both its survival and dispersal success. Here, we develop a simple model that links inter-patch movement behaviour with population dynamics in order to explore how individual dispersal behaviour influences not only its dispersal and survival, but also the population's rate of range expansion. Whereas dispersers are most likely to survive when they follow nearly straight lines and rapidly orient movement towards a non-natal patch, the most rapid rates of range expansion are obtained for trajectories in which individuals delay biasing their movement towards a non-natal patch. This result is robust to the spatial structure of the landscape. Importantly, in a set of evolutionary simulations, we also demonstrate that the movement strategy that evolves at an expanding front is much closer to that maximizing the rate of range expansion than that which maximizes the survival of dispersers. Our results suggest that if one of our conservation goals is the facilitation of range-shifting, then current indices of connectivity need to be complemented by the development and utilization of new indices providing a measure of the ease with which a species spreads across a landscape.
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Affiliation(s)
- K A Bartoń
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Biozentrum, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany.
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20
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Chipperfield JD, Holland EP, Dytham C, Thomas CD, Hovestadt T. On the approximation of continuous dispersal kernels in discrete-space models. Methods Ecol Evol 2011. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2011.00117.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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21
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PHILLIPS BL, BROWN GP, SHINE R. Evolutionarily accelerated invasions: the rate of dispersal evolves upwards during the range advance of cane toads. J Evol Biol 2010; 23:2595-601. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1420-9101.2010.02118.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 151] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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22
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Münkemüller T, Travis MJ, Burton OJ, Schiffers K, Johst K. Density-regulated population dynamics and conditional dispersal alter the fate of mutations occurring at the front of an expanding population. Heredity (Edinb) 2010; 106:678-89. [PMID: 20717158 DOI: 10.1038/hdy.2010.107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
There is an increasing recognition that the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes shapes the genetic footprint of populations during and after range expansions. However, more complex ecological processes regularly considered within spatial ecology remain unexplored in models describing the population genetics of range expansion. In this study we integrate flexible descriptions of population growth and competition as well as conditional dispersal into a model that simulates the fate of mutations occurring at the wave front of an expanding population. Our results show that the survival and distribution of a mutation is not only affected by its bias (that is, whether it is deleterious, neutral or beneficial) but also by the mode of local density regulation and conditional dispersal of the simulated populations. It is in particular the chance of a mutation to establish at the front of advance and 'surf' to high frequencies that critically depends on the investigated ecological processes. This is because of the influence of these processes on demographic stochasticity in the system and the differential responses of deleterious, neutral and beneficial mutations to this stochasticity. Generally, deleterious mutations rely more on chance and thus profit the most from ecological processes that enhance demographic stochasticity during the period of establishment. Our study emphasizes the importance of incorporating more ecological realism into evolutionary models to better understand the consequences of shifting geographic ranges for the genetic structure of populations and to find efficient adaptation strategies to mitigate these effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Münkemüller
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.
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23
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Atkins KE, Travis JMJ. Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change. J Theor Biol 2010; 266:449-57. [PMID: 20654630 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2009] [Revised: 07/13/2010] [Accepted: 07/14/2010] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- K E Atkins
- Centre for Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh, West Mains Road, EH93JT, UK.
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Abstract
Most evolutionary theory does not deal with populations expanding or contracting in space. Invasive species, climate change, epidemics, and the breakdown of dispersal barriers, however, all create populations in this kind of spatial disequilibrium. Importantly, spatial disequilibrium can have important ecological and evolutionary outcomes. During continuous range expansion, for example, populations on the expanding front experience novel evolutionary pressures because frontal populations are assorted by dispersal ability and have a lower density of conspecifics than do core populations. These conditions favor the evolution of traits that increase rates of dispersal and reproduction. Additionally, lowered density on the expanding front eventually frees populations on the expanding edge from specialist, coevolved enemies, permitting higher investment into traits associated with dispersal and reproduction rather than defense against pathogens. As a result, the process of range expansion drives rapid life-history evolution, and this seems to occur despite ongoing serial founder events that have complex effects on genetic diversity at the expanding front. Traits evolving on the expanding edge are smeared across the landscape as the front moves through, leaving an ephemeral signature of range expansion in the life-history traits of a species across its newly colonized range. Recent studies suggest that such nonequilibrium processes during recent population history may have contributed to many patterns usually ascribed to evolutionary forces acting in populations at spatial equilibrium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin L Phillips
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia.
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Travis JMJ, Smith HS, Ranwala SMW. Towards a mechanistic understanding of dispersal evolution in plants: conservation implications. DIVERS DISTRIB 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00674.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
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McInerny GJ, Turner JRG, Wong HY, Travis JMJ, Benton TG. How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution. Proc Biol Sci 2009; 276:1527-34. [PMID: 19324824 PMCID: PMC2677231 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.1567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects ('mutation surfing'), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations 'wipe out'). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.
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Affiliation(s)
- G J McInerny
- Computational Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Microsoft Research Limited, 7 JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FB, UK.
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27
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Holt RD, Barfield M. Trophic interactions and range limits: the diverse roles of predation. Proc Biol Sci 2009; 276:1435-42. [PMID: 19324814 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.1536] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Interactions between natural enemies and their victims are a pervasive feature of the natural world. In this paper, we discuss trophic interactions as determinants of geographic range limits. Predators can directly limit ranges, or do so in conjunction with competition. Dispersal can at times permit a specialist predator to constrain the distribution of its prey-and thus itself-along a gradient. Conversely, we suggest that predators can also at times permit prey to have larger ranges than would be seen without predation. We discuss several ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that can lead to this counter-intuitive outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert D Holt
- Department of Zoology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8525, USA.
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