Does Indonesia's REDD+ moratorium on new concessions spare imminently threatened forests?

Carbon emissions from South-East Asian peatlands will increase despite emission-reduction schemes

Carbon emissions from drained peatlands converted to agriculture in South-East Asia (i.e., Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo) are globally significant and increasing. Here, we map the growth of South-East Asian peatland agriculture and estimate CO₂ emissions due to peat drainage in relation to official land-use plans with a focus on the reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)-related Indonesian moratorium on granting new concession licences for industrial agriculture and logging. We find that, prior to 2010, 35% of South-East Asian peatlands had been converted to agriculture, principally by smallholder farmers (15% of original peat extent) and industrial oil palm plantations (14%). These conversions resulted in 1.46-6.43 GtCO₂ of emissions between 1990 and 2010. This legacy of historical clearances on deep-peat areas will contribute 51% (4.43-11.45 GtCO₂ ) of projected future peatland CO₂ emissions over the period 2010-2130. In Indonesia, which hosts most of the region's peatland and where concession maps are publicly available, 70% of peatland conversion to agriculture occurred outside of known concessions for industrial plantation development, with smallholders accounting for 60% and industrial oil palm accounting for 34%. Of the remaining Indonesian peat swamp forest (PSF), 45% is not protected, and its conversion would amount to CO₂ emissions equivalent to 0.7%-2.3% (5.14-14.93 Gt) of global fossil fuel and cement emissions released between 1990 and 2010. Of the peatland extent included in the moratorium, 48% was no longer forested, and of the PSF included, 40%-48% is likely to be affected by drainage impacts from agricultural areas and will emit CO₂ over time. We suggest that recent legislation and policy in Indonesia could provide a means of meaningful emission reductions if focused on revised land-use planning, PSF conservation both inside and outside agricultural concessions, and the development of agricultural practices based on rehabilitating peatland hydrological function.

Indonesia's forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities' benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

Payments for ecosystem services in Indonesia

Payments for ecosystem services schemes are viewed as having the potential to achieve positive biodiversity and ecosystem service outcomes and social outcomes, and they have been widely studied since their development in the 1990s. We describe the state of payments for ecosystem services in Indonesia, where nine schemes were identified, four involving water and five involving carbon. We also assess the perceptions of stakeholders (donors, government, and non-government agencies) regarding the status of such schemes in Indonesia, and their views on what factors support or constrain their development. The main factors perceived to support payments for ecosystem services schemes were easily identifiable ecosystem services and service users, and the long-term support provided by individuals or institutions that facilitate the schemes, building on existing relationships between communities and these facilitating agencies. Stakeholders identified problems relating to regulation: the lack of regulation specifically in relation to payments for ecosystem services, but also overlap and uncertainties regarding regulations. Other constraining factors identified were the lack of recognition of environmental problems amongst potential buyers, and issues of rights and tenure for local communities. With so few operational programmes to date, covering a relatively small land area, and such constraints to further development, payments for ecosystem services schemes appear to have limited scope to supply ecosystem services successfully and sustainably at scale.

Reconciling oil palm expansion and climate change mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia

Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world's most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia's economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4-211.4 MtCO2 yr(-1) under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55-60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia's national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.

Reductions in emissions from deforestation from Indonesia's moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation, Indonesia instituted a nationwide moratorium on new license areas ("concessions") for oil palm plantations, timber plantations, and logging activity on primary forests and peat lands after May 2011. Here we indirectly evaluate the effectiveness of this policy using annual nationwide data on deforestation, concession licenses, and potential agricultural revenue from the decade preceding the moratorium. We estimate that on average granting a concession for oil palm, timber, or logging in Indonesia increased site-level deforestation rates by 17-127%, 44-129%, or 3.1-11.1%, respectively, above what would have occurred otherwise. We further estimate that if Indonesia's moratorium had been in place from 2000 to 2010, then nationwide emissions from deforestation over that decade would have been 241-615 MtCO2e (2.8-7.2%) lower without leakage, or 213-545 MtCO2e (2.5-6.4%) lower with leakage. As a benchmark, an equivalent reduction in emissions could have been achieved using a carbon price-based instrument at a carbon price of $3.30-7.50/tCO2e (mandatory) or $12.95-19.45/tCO2e (voluntary). For Indonesia to have achieved its target of reducing emissions by 26%, the geographic scope of the moratorium would have had to expand beyond new concessions (15.0% of emissions from deforestation and peat degradation) to also include existing concessions (21.1% of emissions) and address deforestation outside of concessions and protected areas (58.7% of emissions). Place-based policies, such as moratoria, may be best thought of as bridge strategies that can be implemented rapidly while the institutions necessary to enable carbon price-based instruments are developed.

Major atmospheric emissions from peat fires in Southeast Asia during non-drought years: evidence from the 2013 Sumatran fires

Trans-boundary haze events in Southeast Asia are associated with large forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. These episodes of extreme air pollution usually occur during drought years induced by climate anomalies from the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, in June 2013 – a non-drought year – Singapore's 24-hr Pollutants Standards Index reached an all-time record 246 (rated “very unhealthy”). Here, we show using remote sensing, rainfall records and other data, that the Indonesian fires behind the 2013 haze followed a two-month dry spell in a wetter-than-average year. These fires were short-lived (one week) and limited to a localized area in Central Sumatra (1.6% of Indonesia): burning an estimated 163,336 ha, including 137,044 ha (84%) on peat. Most burning was confined to deforested lands (82%; 133,216 ha). The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during this brief, localized event were considerable: 172 ± 59 Tg CO₂-eq (or 31 ± 12 Tg C), representing 5–10% of Indonesia's mean annual GHG emissions for 2000–2005. Our observations show that extreme air pollution episodes in Southeast Asia are no longer restricted to drought years. We expect major haze events to be increasingly frequent because of ongoing deforestation of Indonesian peatlands.

Breaking the vicious circle of illegal logging in Indonesia

The government of Indonesia, which presides over 10% of the world's tropical forests, has set ambitious targets to cut its high deforestation rates through an REDD+ scheme (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). This will require strong law enforcement to succeed. Yet, strategies that have accomplished this are rare and, along with past failures, tend not to be documented. We evaluated a multistakeholder approach that seeks to tackle illegal logging in the carbon-rich province of Aceh, Sumatra. From 2008 to 2009, Fauna & Flora International established and supported a community-based informant network for the 738,000 ha Ulu Masen ecosystem. The network reported 190 forest offenses to local law enforcement agencies, which responded with 86 field operations that confiscated illicit vehicles, equipment, and timber, and arrested 138 illegal logging suspects. From 45 cases subsequently monitored, 64.4% proceeded to court, from which 90.0% of defendants received a prison sentence or a verbal warning for a first offense. Spatial analyses of illegal logging and timber storage incidents predicted that illegal activities would be more effectively deterred by law enforcement operations that targeted the storage sites. Although numerous clusters of incidents were identified, they were still widespread reflecting the ubiquity of illegal activities. The multistakeholder results were promising, but illegal logging still persisted at apparently similar levels at the project's end, indicating that efforts need to be further strengthened. Nevertheless, several actions contributed to the law enforcement achievements: strong political will; strong stakeholder support; and funding that could be promptly accessed. These factors are highlighted as prerequisites for achieving Indonesia's ambitious REDD+ goals.

Reconciling forest conservation and logging in Indonesian Borneo

Combining protected areas with natural forest timber concessions may sustain larger forest landscapes than is possible via protected areas alone. However, the role of timber concessions in maintaining natural forest remains poorly characterized. An estimated 57% (303,525 km²) of Kalimantan's land area (532,100 km²) was covered by natural forest in 2000. About 14,212 km² (4.7%) had been cleared by 2010. Forests in oil palm concessions had been reduced by 5,600 km² (14.1%), while the figures for timber concessions are 1,336 km² (1.5%), and for protected forests are 1,122 km² (1.2%). These deforestation rates explain little about the relative performance of the different land use categories under equivalent conversion risks due to the confounding effects of location. An estimated 25% of lands allocated for timber harvesting in 2000 had their status changed to industrial plantation concessions in 2010. Based on a sample of 3,391 forest plots (1×1 km; 100 ha), and matching statistical analyses, 2000-2010 deforestation was on average 17.6 ha lower (95% C.I.: -22.3 ha- -12.9 ha) in timber concession plots than in oil palm concession plots. When location effects were accounted for, deforestation rates in timber concessions and protected areas were not significantly different (Mean difference: 0.35 ha; 95% C.I.: -0.002 ha-0.7 ha). Natural forest timber concessions in Kalimantan had similar ability as protected areas to maintain forest cover during 2000-2010, provided the former were not reclassified to industrial plantation concessions. Our study indicates the desirability of the Government of Indonesia designating its natural forest timber concessions as protected areas under the IUCN Protected Area Category VI to protect them from reclassification.