Risk of introduction of H5N1 HPAI from Europe to Spain by wild water birds in autumn

Meteorological factors affecting the risk of transmission of HPAI in Miyazaki, Japan

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks engender a severe economic impact on the poultry industry and public health. Migratory waterfowl are considered the natural hosts of HPAI virus, and HPAI viruses are known to be transmitted over long distances during seasonal bird migration. Bird migration is greatly affected by the weather. Many studies have shown the relationship between either autumn or spring bird migration and climate. However, few studies have shown the relationship between annual bird migration and annual weather. This study aimed to establish a model for the number of migratory waterfowl involved in HPAI virus transmission based on meteorological data. From 136 species of waterfowl that were observed at Futatsudate in Miyazaki, Japan, from 2008 to 2016, we selected potential high-risk species that could introduce the HPAI virus into Miyazaki and defined them as 'risky birds'. We also performed cluster analysis to select meteorological factors. We then analysed the meteorological data and the total number of risky birds using a generalised linear mixed model. We selected 10 species as risky birds: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Northern pintail (Anas acuta), Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), Eurasian teal (Anas crecca), Common pochard (Aythya ferina), Eurasian coot (Fulica atra), Northern shoveler (Anas clypeata), Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) and Herring gull (Larus argentatus). We succeeded in clustering 35 meteorological factors into four clusters and identified three meteorological factors associated with their migration: (1) the average daily maximum temperature; (2) the mean value of global solar radiation and (3) the maximum daily precipitation. We thus demonstrated the relationship between the number of risky birds and meteorological data. The dynamics of migratory waterfowl was relevant to the risk of an HPAI outbreak, and our data could contribute to cost and time savings in strengthening preventive measures against epidemics.

The Use of Spatial and Spatiotemporal Modeling for Surveillance of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in the Middle East

Since 2005, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has severely impacted the economy and public health in the Middle East (ME) with Egypt as the most affected country. Understanding the high-risk areas and spatiotemporal distribution of the H5N1 HPAIV in poultry is prerequisite for establishing risk-based surveillance activities at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aimed to predict the geographic range of H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks in poultry in the ME using a set of environmental variables and to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering of outbreaks in the region. Data from the ME for the period 2005-14 were analyzed using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the permutation model of the scan statistics. The predicted range of high-risk areas (P > 0.60) for H5N1 HPAIV in poultry included parts of the ME northeastern countries, whereas the Egyptian Nile delta and valley were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictor that contributed to risk for H5N1 HPAIV was the precipitation of the warmest quarter (47.2%), followed by the type of global livestock production system (18.1%). Most significant spatiotemporal clusters (P < 0.001) were detected in Egypt, Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan. Results suggest that more information related to poultry holding demographics is needed to further improve prediction of risk for H5N1 HPAIV in the ME, whereas the methodology presented here may be useful in guiding the design of surveillance programs and in identifying areas in which underreporting may have occurred.

Phylodynamics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2005-2010: Potential for Molecular Surveillance of New Outbreaks

Previous Bayesian phylogeographic studies of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) explored the origin and spread of the epidemic from China into Russia, indicating that HPAIV circulated in Russia prior to its detection there in 2005. In this study, we extend this research to explore the evolution and spread of HPAIV within Europe during the 2005-2010 epidemic, using all available sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene regions that were collected in Europe and Russia during the outbreak. We use discrete-trait phylodynamic models within a Bayesian statistical framework to explore the evolution of HPAIV. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe. Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe. Additionally, estimates of viral dispersal routes indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were key epicenters of these outbreaks. Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs.

Surveillance of influenza viruses in waterfowl used as decoys in Andalusia, Spain

A longitudinal study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in waterfowl used as decoys in Andalusia, southern Spain. A total of 2319 aquatic birds from 193 flocks were analyzed before and after the hunting season 2011-2012. In the first sampling, 403 out of 2319 (18.0%, CI95%: 15.8-19.0) decoys showed antibodies against AIVs by ELISA. The AI seroprevalence was significantly higher in geese (21.0%) than in ducks (11.7%) (P<0.001). Besides, the spatial distribution of AIVs was not homogeneous as significant differences among regions were observed. The prevalence of antibodies against AIVs subtypes H5 and H7 were 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively, using hemagglutination inhibition test (HI). The overall and H5 seroprevalences slightly increased after the hunting period (to 19.2% and 1.4%, respectively), while the H7 seroprevalence remained at the same level (0.3%). The proportion of flocks infected by AIVs was 65.3%, while 11.2% and 4.9% of flocks were positive for H5 and H7, respectively. Viral shedding was not detected in any of the 47 samples positive by both ELISA and HI, tested by RRT-PCR. The individual incidence after the hunting season was 3.4%. The fact that 57 animals seroconverted, 15 of which were confirmed by HI (12 H5 and 3 H7), was indication of contact with AIVs during the hunting period. The results indicate that waterfowl used as decoys are frequently exposed to AIVs and may be potentially useful as sentinels for AIVs monitoring. The seroprevalence detected and the seropositivity against AIVs H5 and H7, suggest that decoys can act as reservoirs of AIVs, which may be of animal and public health concern.

Bird migration and risk for H5N1 transmission into Qinghai Lake, China

The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus still cause devastating effects to humans, agricultural poultry flocks, and wild birds. Wild birds are also detected to carry H5N1 over long distances and are able to introduce it into new areas during migration. In this article, our objective is to provide lists of bird species potentially involved in the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Qinghai Lake, which is an important breeding and stopover site for aquatic birds along the Central Asian Flyway. Bird species were classified according to the following behavioral and ecological factors: migratory status, abundance, degree of mixing species and gregariousness, and the prevalence rate of H5N1 virus. Most of the high-risk species were from the family Anatidae, order Anseriformes (9/14 in spring, 11/15 in fall). We also estimated the relative risk of bird species involved by using a semi-quantitative method; species from family Anatidae accounted for over 39% and over 91% of the total risk at spring and fall migration periods, respectively. Results also show the relative risk for each bird aggregating site in helping to identify high-risk areas. This work may also be instructive and meaningful to the avian influenza surveillance in the breeding, stopover, and wintering sites besides Qinghai Lake along the Central Asian Flyway.

First case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry in Spain

In October 2009, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) was isolated for the first time in poultry in Spain. Sequencing analysis revealed that it was an H7N7 HPAIV. The progenitors of H7 HPAIV strains involved in recent European poultry outbreaks were simultaneously circulating in wild birds. The infected Spanish farm is located close to a reservoir abundant in wild birds. Epidemiological investigation found no links to other poultry holdings and those located in the control area were negative for AIV. Previous spatial risk analyses had identified the area where the infected holding is located to beat high relative risk for the introduction and presence of H5N1 HPAIV by wild birds. We suggest a risk-based surveillance scheme that targets smaller geographical units but maintains the number of wild birds being sampled, as early detection of potentially pathogenic AIV is crucial in preventing spread to poultry.

Evaluating surveillance in wild birds by the application of risk assessment of avian influenza introduction into Spain

Early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in its natural reservoirs is a prerequisite for preventing disease spread to humans. The risk of introduction of H5N1 HPAI was assessed in order to design a risk-based surveillance system in Spain. Areas at highest risk for H5N1 HPAI followed a northeast–southwest direction, with two significant clusters located in the north and the southwest of the country. Most (83%) of the veterinary units (VUs) obtained fewer samples than would have been expected if samples had been collected using a risk-based design. In October 2009, a HPAI outbreak was reported for the first time in a Spanish layer farm located in a VU at high risk for HPAI, but no samples were collected. This risk-based surveillance approach will increase the cost-effectiveness of HPAI surveillance in Spain and can be easily extended to and adopted by other countries and regions throughout the world.