Density Dependence of Egg Recruitment and Moth Dispersal in Spruce Budworms

Egg recruitment quantifies the relative importance of realized fecundity and migration rates in the population dynamics of highly mobile insects. We develop here a formal context upon which to base the measurement and interpretation of egg recruitment in population dynamics of eastern and western spruce budworms, two geographically separated species that share a very similar ecology. Under most circumstances, per capita egg recruitment rates in these budworms are higher in low-density populations and lower in high-density populations, relative to the regional mean: Low-density populations are nearly always migration sinks for gravid moths, and dense populations nearly always sources. The slope of this relationship, measured on a log scale, is negatively correlated with migration rate, and ranges between 0 and −1. The steeper the slope, the more marked net migration. Using our western spruce budworm observations, we found strong evidence of density-dependent emigration in budworms, so migration is not simply a random perturbation in the lagged, density-dependent stochastic process leading to budworm outbreaks. It is itself statistically and biologically density-dependent. Therefore, moth migration is a synchronizing factor and a spread mechanism that is essential to understanding the development and expansion of spruce budworm outbreaks at regional scales in the boreal forests of North America.

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers

Despite the pervasiveness of spatial synchrony of population fluctuations in virtually every taxon, it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms, such as environmental perturbations and dispersal. We used multiple regression of distance matrices (MRMs) to statistically partition the importance of several factors potentially synchronizing the dynamics of the gypsy moth, an invasive species in North America, exhibiting outbreaks that are partially synchronized over long distances (approx. 900 km). The factors considered in the MRM were synchrony in weather conditions, spatial proximity and forest-type similarity. We found that the most likely driver of outbreak synchrony is synchronous precipitation. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing outbreak synchrony after accounting for precipitation, suggesting dispersal does not drive outbreak synchrony. Because a previous modelling study indicated weather might indirectly synchronize outbreaks through synchronization of oak masting and generalist predators that feed upon acorns, we also examined the influence of weather and proximity on synchrony of acorn production. As we found for outbreak synchrony, synchrony in oak masting increased with synchrony in precipitation, though it also increased with proximity. We conclude that precipitation could synchronize gypsy moth populations directly, as in a Moran effect, or indirectly, through effects on oak masting, generalist predators or diseases.

Phase-locking and environmental fluctuations generate synchrony in a predator-prey community

Spatially synchronized fluctuations in system state are common in physical and biological systems ranging from individual atoms to species as diverse as viruses, insects and mammals. Although the causal factors are well known for many synchronized phenomena, several processes concurrently have an impact on spatial synchrony of species, making their separate effects and interactions difficult to quantify. Here we develop a general stochastic model of predator-prey spatial dynamics to predict the outcome of a laboratory microcosm experiment testing for interactions among all known synchronizing factors: (1) dispersal of individuals between populations; (2) spatially synchronous fluctuations in exogenous environmental factors (the Moran effect); and (3) interactions with other species (for example, predators) that are themselves spatially synchronized. The Moran effect synchronized populations of the ciliate protist Tetrahymena pyriformis; however, dispersal only synchronized prey populations in the presence of the predator Euplotes patella. Both model and data indicate that synchrony depends on cyclic dynamics generated by the predator. Dispersal, but not the Moran effect, 'phase-locks' cycles, which otherwise become 'decoherent' and drift out of phase. In the absence of cycles, phase-locking is not possible and the synchronizing effect of dispersal is negligible. Interspecific interactions determine population synchrony, not by providing an additional source of synchronized fluctuations, but by altering population dynamics and thereby enhancing the action of dispersal. Our results are robust to wide variation in model parameters representative of many natural predator-prey or host-pathogen systems. This explains why cyclic systems provide many of the most dramatic examples of spatial synchrony in nature.

Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes

Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.