Evidence for machine learning guided early prediction of acute outcomes in the treatment of depressed children and adolescents with antidepressants

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Escitalopram and Sertraline Side Effects With Pharmacokinetic Data in Children and Adolescents

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) are the first-line pharmacologic treatment for anxiety and depressive disorders in children and adolescents. Many patients experience side effects that are difficult to predict, are associated with significant morbidity, and can lead to treatment discontinuation. Variation in SSRI pharmacokinetics could explain differences in treatment outcomes, but this is often overlooked as a contributing factor to SSRI tolerability. This study evaluated data from 288 escitalopram-treated and 255 sertraline-treated patients ≤ 18 years old to develop machine learning models to predict side effects using electronic health record data and Bayesian estimated pharmacokinetic parameters. Trained on a combined cohort of escitalopram- and sertraline-treated patients, a penalized logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-0.88), with 0.69 sensitivity (95% CI: 0.54-0.86), and 0.82 specificity (95% CI: 0.72-0.87). Medication exposure, clearance, and time since the last dose increase were among the top features. Individual escitalopram and sertraline models yielded an AUROC of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65-0.81) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55-0.73), respectively. Post hoc analysis showed sertraline-treated patients with activation side effects had slower clearance (P = 0.01), which attenuated after accounting for age (P = 0.055). These findings raise the possibility that a machine learning approach leveraging pharmacokinetic data can predict escitalopram- and sertraline-related side effects. Clinicians may consider differences in medication pharmacokinetics, especially during dose titration and as opposed to relying on dose, when managing side effects. With further validation, application of this model to predict side effects may enhance SSRI precision dosing strategies in youth.

A Characterization of the Clinical Global Impression Scale Thresholds in the Treatment of Adolescent Depression Across Multiple Rating Scales

Introduction: The Clinical Global Impressions-Improvement (CGI-I) scale is widely used in clinical research to assess symptoms and functioning in the context of treatment. The correlates of the CGI-I with efficacy scales for adolescent major depressive disorder are poorly understood. This study focused on benchmarking CGI-I scores with changes in the Children's Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-Adolescent (17-item) Self-Report (QIDS-A17-SR). Methods: We examined three datasets with the clinician-rated CDRS-R to ascertain equivalent percent changes in total scores and CGI-I ratings. Exploratory analyses examined corresponding percentage changes in the QIDS-A17-SR and the CGI-I ratings. The CGI-I was the reference scale for nonparametric equipercentile linking with the Equate package in R. Results: CGI-I scores of 1 mapped to ≥78%-95% change in CDRS-R scores at 4-6 weeks across three datasets. CGI-I scores of 2 mapped to 56%-94% change in CDRS-R scores at 4-6 weeks across three studies. CGI-I scores of 3 mapped to 30%-68% changes in CDRS-R scores at 4-6 weeks across three studies. CGI-I scores of 4 mapped to a range of 29%-44% at 4-6 weeks across three studies. There was no significant difference (p ≥ 0.6) between treatment groups in both the Treatment of Adolescents with Depression and Treatment of Resistant Depression in Adolescents studies, for each CGI-I score ( = 1, or = 2 or = 3, or ≥4), associated mapping of total depression severity score, or associated percent change from baseline for corresponding follow-up visits. There was no significant sex difference (p > 0.2) in CGI-I linkages to CDRS-R total or percentage changes. Conclusions: These findings establish clear relationships among CGI-I scores and the CDRS-R and the QIDS-A17-SR. These benchmarks have utility for clinical trial study design, inter-rater reliability training, and clinical implementation.