Temperature and hypoxia trigger developmental phenotypic plasticity of cardiorespiratory physiology and growth in the parthenogenetic marbled crayfish, Procambarus virginalis Lyko, 2017

Attempting to differentiate phenotypic variation caused by environmentally-induced alterations in gene expression from that caused by actual allelic differences can be experimentally difficult. Environmental variables must be carefully controlled and then interindividual genetic differences ruled out as sources of phenotypic variation. We investigated phenotypic variability of cardiorespiratory physiology as well as biometric traits in the parthenogenetically-reproducing marbled crayfish Procambarus virginalis Lyko, 2017, all offspring being genetically identical clones. Populations of P. virginalis were reared from eggs tank-bred at four different temperatures (16, 19, 22 and 25 °C) or two different oxygen levels (9.5 and 20 kPa). Then, at Stage 3 and 4 juvenile stages, physiological (heart rate, oxygen consumption) and morphological (carapace length, body mass) variables were measured. Heart rate and oxygen consumption measured at 23 °C showed only small effects of rearing temperature in Stage 3 juveniles, with larger effects evident in older, Stage 4 juveniles. Additionally, coefficients of variation were calculated to compare our data to previously published data on P. virginalis as well as sexually-reproducing crayfish. Comparison revealed that carapace length, body mass and heart rate (but not oxygen consumption) indeed showed lower, yet notable coefficients of variation in clonal crayfish. Yet, despite being genetically identical, significant variation in their morphology and physiology in response to different rearing conditions nonetheless occurred in marbled crayfish. This suggests that epigenetically induced phenotypic variation might play a significant role in asexual but also sexually reproducing species.

Bet Hedging Is Not Sufficient to Explain Germination Patterns of a Winter Annual Plant

AbstractBet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.

Parasite-mediated selection on host phenology

The timing of seasonal activity, or phenology, is an adaptive trait that maximizes individual fitness by timing key life events to coincide with favorable abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Studies on the biotic interactions that determine optimal phenology have focused on temporal overlaps among positively-interacting species such as mutualisms. Less well understood is the extent that negative interactions such as parasitism impact the evolution of host phenology. Here, we present a mathematical model demonstrating the evolution of host phenological patterns in response to sterilizing parasites. Environments with parasites favor hosts with shortened activity periods or greater distributions in emergence timing, both of which reduce the temporal overlap between hosts and parasites and thus reduce infection risk. Although host populations with these altered phenological patterns are less likely to mature and reproduce, the fitness advantage of parasite avoidance can be greater than the cost of reduced reproduction. These results illustrate the impact of parasitism on the evolution of host phenology and suggest that shifts in host phenology could serve as a strategy to mitigate the risk of infection.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Plasticity to ocean warming is influenced by transgenerational, reproductive, and developmental exposure in a coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to drive some ectothermic species beyond their thermal tolerance in upcoming decades. Phenotypic plasticity, via developmental or transgenerational acclimation, is a critical mechanism for compensation in the face of environmental change. Yet, it remains to be determined if the activation of beneficial phenotypes requires direct exposure throughout development, or if compensation can be obtained just through the experience of previous generations. In this study, we exposed three generations of a tropical damselfish to combinations of current-day (Control) and projected future (+1.5°C) water temperatures. Acclimation was evaluated with phenotypic (oxygen consumption, hepatosomatic index, physical condition) and molecular (liver gene expression) measurements of third-generation juveniles. Exposure of grandparents/parents to warm conditions improved the aerobic capacity of fish regardless of thermal conditions experienced afterwards, representing a true transgenerational effect. This coincided with patterns of gene expression related to inflammation and immunity seen in the third generation. Parental effects due to reproductive temperature significantly affected the physical condition and routine metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) of offspring, but had little impact on gene expression of the F3. Developmental temperature of juveniles, and whether they matched conditions during parental reproduction, had the largest influence on the liver transcriptional program. Using a combination of both phenotypic and molecular approaches, this study highlights how the conditions experienced by both previous and current generations can influence plasticity to global warming in upcoming decades.

Evolution of phenotypic fluctuation under host-parasite interactions

Robustness and plasticity are essential features that allow biological systems to cope with complex and variable environments. In a constant environment, robustness, i.e., insensitivity of phenotypes, is expected to increase, whereas plasticity, i.e., the changeability of phenotypes, tends to diminish. Under a variable environment, existence of plasticity will be relevant. The robustness and plasticity, on the other hand, are related to phenotypic variances. As phenotypic variances decrease with the increase in robustness to perturbations, they are expected to decrease through the evolution. However, in nature, phenotypic fluctuation is preserved to a certain degree. One possible cause for this is environmental variation, where one of the most important “environmental” factors will be inter-species interactions. As a first step toward investigating phenotypic fluctuation in response to an inter-species interaction, we present the study of a simple two-species system that comprises hosts and parasites. Hosts are expected to evolve to achieve a phenotype that optimizes fitness. Then, the robustness of the corresponding phenotype will be increased by reducing phenotypic fluctuations. Conversely, plasticity tends to evolve to avoid certain phenotypes that are attacked by parasites. By using a dynamic model of gene expression for the host, we investigate the evolution of the genotype-phenotype map and of phenotypic variances. If the host–parasite interaction is weak, the fittest phenotype of the host evolves to reduce phenotypic variances. In contrast, if there exists a sufficient degree of interaction, the phenotypic variances of hosts increase to escape parasite attacks. For the latter case, we found two strategies: if the noise in the stochastic gene expression is below a certain threshold, the phenotypic variance increases via genetic diversification, whereas above this threshold, it is increased mediated by noise-induced phenotypic fluctuation. We examine how the increase in the phenotypic variances caused by parasite interactions influences the growth rate of a single host, and observed a trade-off between the two. Our results help elucidate the roles played by noise and genetic mutations in the evolution of phenotypic fluctuation and robustness in response to host–parasite interactions.

Plasticity and phenotypic variability induced by internal or external perturbations are common features of biological systems. However, under evolution for given environmental conditions, phenotypic variability is not advantageous, because it leads to the deviation from the fittest state. This has been demonstrated by previous laboratory and computer experiments. As a possible origin for the remnant phenotypic variance, we investigated the role of host–parasite interactions such as those between bacteria and phages. Different parasite-types attack hosts of certain phenotypes. Through numerical simulations of the evolution of the host genotype–phenotype mapping, we found that hosts increase phenotypic variation by increasing phenotypic fluctuations if the interaction is sufficiently strong. Depending on the degree of noise in gene expression dynamics, there are two distinct strategies for increasing phenotypic variances: stochasticity in gene expression or genetic variances. The former strategy, which can work over a faster time scale, leads to a decline in fitness, whereas the latter reduces the robustness of the fitted state. Our results provide insights into how phenotypic variances are preserved and how hosts can escape being attacked by parasites whose genes mutate to adapt to changes in parasites. These two host strategies, which depend on internal and external conditions, can be verified experimentally via the transcriptome analysis of microorganisms.

High degree of non-genetic phenotypic variation in the vascular system of crayfish: a discussion of possible causes and implications

In this study, the hemolymph vascular system (HVS) in two cambarid crayfishes, i.e. the Marbled Crayfish, Procambarus virginalis Lyko, 2017 and the Spiny Cheek Crayfish, Faxonius limosus (Rafinesque, 1817), is investigated in regard of areas of non-genetic phenotypic variation. Despite their genetic identity, specimens of P. virginalis show variability in certain features of the HVS. Thus, we describe varying branching patterns, sporadic anastomoses, and different symmetry states in the vascular system of the marbled crayfish. We visualize our findings by application of classical and modern morphological methods, e.g. injection of casting resin, micro-computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy. By comparing our findings for P. virginalis to the vasculature in sexually reproducing crayfishes, i.e. F. limosus and Astacus astacus, we discuss phenotypic variation of the HVS in arthropods in general. We conclude that constant features of the HVS are hereditary, whereas varying states identified by study of the clonal P. virginalis must be caused by non-genetic factors and, that congruent variations in sexually reproducing F. limosus and A. astacus are likely also non-genetic phenotypic variations. Both common causal factors for non-genetic phenotypic variation, i.e., phenotypic plasticity and stochastic developmental variation are discussed along our findings regarding the vascular systems. Further aspects, such as the significance of non-genetic phenotypic variation for phylogenetic interpretations are discussed.

An empirical confirmation of diversified bet hedging as a survival strategy in unpredictably varying environments

Environmental change jeopardizes the survival of species from variable environments by making the occurrence of favorable conditions less predictable. For organisms with long-lived propagules (e.g., spores, eggs, or seeds), the theory of diversified bet hedging (DBH) predicts that delayed hatching over different growing seasons can help populations avoid extinction. Empirical observations in different organisms are consistent with DBH, but integrated tests that simultaneously validate the main theoretical assumptions and predictions are lacking. In this study, we combine field and multi-generational lab experiments to provide a complete test of DBH. Consistent with DBH predictions, resting egg clutches of the fairy shrimp Branchipodopsis wolfi, which inhabits rain-fed temporary rock pool environments with unpredictable inundations, hatched partially over a succession of inundations with identical hatching cues. Bet hedging was more common in populations from more unpredictable habitats where hatching fractions were lower. This differentiation in hatching strategies was preserved after two generations under common garden conditions, which implies intrinsic (epi-)genetic control of hatching. Finally, a demographic model confirmed that lower hatching fractions increase long-term population growth in unpredictable habitats. With this paper we propose a method to calculate probabilities of successful recruitment for organisms that use imperfect cues and show that this drives selection for variation in life history strategies as part of a DBH strategy.

Variation in developmental rates is not linked to environmental unpredictability in annual killifishes

Comparative evidence suggests that adaptive plasticity may evolve as a response to predictable environmental variation. However, less attention has been placed on unpredictable environmental variation, which is considered to affect evolutionary trajectories by increasing phenotypic variation (or bet hedging). Here, we examine the occurrence of bet hedging in egg developmental rates in seven species of annual killifish that originate from a gradient of variation in precipitation rates, under three treatment incubation temperatures (21, 23, and 25°C). In the wild, these species survive regular and seasonal habitat desiccation, as dormant eggs buried in the soil. At the onset of the rainy season, embryos must be sufficiently developed in order to hatch and complete their life cycle. We found substantial differences among species in both the mean and variation of egg development rates, as well as species-specific plastic responses to incubation temperature. Yet, there was no clear relationship between variation in egg development time and variation in precipitation rate (environmental predictability). The exact cause of these differences therefore remains enigmatic, possibly depending on differences in other natural environmental conditions in addition to precipitation predictability. Hence, if species-specific variances are adaptive, the relationship between development and variation in precipitation is complex and does not diverge in accordance with simple linear relationships.

Individual reversible plasticity as a genotype-level bet-hedging strategy

Reversible plasticity in phenotypic traits allows organisms to cope with environmental variation within lifetimes, but costs of plasticity may limit just how well the phenotype matches the environmental optimum. An additional adaptive advantage of plasticity might be to reduce fitness variance, in other words: bet-hedging to maximize geometric (rather than simply arithmetic) mean fitness. Here, we model the evolution of plasticity in the form of reaction norm slopes, with increasing costs as the slope or degree of plasticity increases. We find that greater investment in plasticity (i.e. a steeper reaction norm slope) is favoured in scenarios promoting bet-hedging as a response to multiplicative fitness accumulation (i.e. coarser environmental grains and fewer time steps prior to reproduction), because plasticity lowers fitness variance across environmental conditions. In contrast, in scenarios with finer environmental grain and many time steps prior to reproduction, bet-hedging plays less of a role and individual-level optimization favours evolution of shallower reaction norm slopes. However, the opposite pattern holds if plasticity costs themselves result in increased fitness variation, as might be the case for production costs of plasticity that depend on how much change is made to the phenotype each time step. We discuss these contrasting predictions from this partitioning of adaptive plasticity into short-term individual benefits versus long-term genotypic (bet-hedging) benefits, and how this approach enhances our understanding of the evolution of optimum levels of plasticity in examples from thermal physiology to advances in avian lay dates.

Synchrony and multimodality in the timing of Atlantic salmon smolt migration in two Norwegian fjords

The timing of the smolt migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is a phenological trait increasingly important to the fitness of this species. Understanding when and how smolts migrate to the sea is crucial to understanding how salmon populations will be affected by both climate change and the elevated salmon lice concentrations produced by salmon farms. Here, acoustic telemetry was used to monitor the fjord migration of wild post-smolts from four rivers across two fjord systems in western Norway. Smolts began their migration throughout the month of May in all populations. Within-population, the timing of migration was multimodal with peaks in migration determined by the timing of spring floods. As a result, migrations were synchronized across populations with similar hydrology. There was little indication that the timing of migration had an impact on survival from the river mouth to the outer fjord. However, populations with longer fjord migrations experienced lower survival rates and had higher variance in fjord residency times. Explicit consideration of the multimodality inherent to the timing of smolt migration in these populations may help predict when smolts are in the fjord, as these modes seem predictable from available environmental data.

Birth order as a source of within-genotype diversification in the clonal duckweed, Spirodela polyrhiza (Araceae: Lemnoideae)

Organismal persistence attests to adaptive responses to environmental variation. Diversification bet hedging, in which risk is reduced at the cost of expected fitness, is increasingly recognized as an adaptive response, yet mechanisms by which a single genotype generates diversification remain obscure. The clonal greater duckweed, Spirodela polyrhiza (L.), facultatively expresses a seed-like but vegetative form, the ‘turion’, that allows survival through otherwise lethal conditions. Turion reactivation phenology is a key fitness component, yet little is known about turion reactivation phenology in the field, or sources of variation. Here, using floating traps deployed in the field, we found a remarkable extent of variation in natural reactivation phenology that could not be explained solely by spring cues, occurring over a period of ≥ 200 days. In controlled laboratory conditions, we found support for the hypothesis that turion phenology is influenced jointly by phenotypic plasticity to temperature and diversification within clones. Turion ‘birth order’ consistently accounted for a difference in reactivation time of 46 days at temperatures between 10 and 18 °C, with turions early in birth order reactivating more rapidly than turions late in birth order. These results should motivate future work to evaluate the variance in turion phenology formally as a bet-hedging trait.

Latitudinal variation in norms of reaction of phenology in the greater duckweed Spirodela polyrhiza

Variable environments may result in the evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity when cues reliably indicate an appropriate phenotype-environment match. Although adaptive plasticity is well established for phenological traits expressed across environments, local differentiation in norms of reaction is less well studied. The switch from the production of regular fronds to overwintering 'turions' in the greater duckweed Spirodela polyrhiza is vital to fitness and is expressed as a norm of reaction induced by falling temperatures associated with the onset of winter. However, the optimal norm of reaction to temperature is expected to differ across latitudes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a gradient in the length and predictability of growing seasons across latitudes results in the evolution of reaction norms characterized by earlier turion production at higher latitudes. We test this by collecting S. polyrhiza from replicate populations across seven latitudes from Ontario to Florida and then assessing differentiation in thermal reaction norms of turion production along a common temperature gradient. As predicted, northern populations produce turions at a lower birth order and earlier; a significant latitude-by-temperature interaction suggests that reaction norm differentiation has occurred. Our results provide evidence of differentiation in reaction norms across latitudes in a phenological trait, and we discuss how the adaptive significance of this plasticity might be further tested.

Variation in the seasonal germination niche across an elevational gradient: the role of germination cueing in current and future climates

PREMISE

The timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues in Streptanthus tortuosus populations across an elevational gradient.

METHODS

Using common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change.

RESULTS

Populations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low-elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high-elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate-change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high-elevation populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The seasonal germination niche for S. tortuosus is highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence.

Optimal germination timing in unpredictable environments: the importance of dormancy for both among- and within-season variation

For organisms living in unpredictable environments, timing important life‐history events is challenging. One way to deal with uncertainty is to spread the emergence of offspring across multiple years via dormancy. However, timing of emergence is not only important among years, but also within each growing season. Here, we study the evolutionary interactions between germination strategies that deal with among‐ and within‐season uncertainty. We use a modelling approach that considers among‐season dormancy and within‐season germination phenology of annual plants as potentially independent traits and study their separate and joint evolution in a variable environment. We find that higher among‐season dormancy selects for earlier germination within the growing season. Furthermore, our results indicate that more unpredictable natural environments can counter‐intuitively select for less risk‐spreading within the season. Furthermore, strong priority effects select for earlier within‐season germination phenology which in turn increases the need for bet hedging through among‐season dormancy.

Germination variation facilitates the evolution of seed dormancy when coupled with seedling competition

Fluctuating environmental conditions have consequences for the evolution of life histories because they cause fitness variance. This variance can favor risk-spreading strategies, often known as bet-hedging strategies, in which growth or reproduction is spread over time or space, with some costs, but greater certainty of success. An important example is seed dormancy in annual plants, in which some fraction of seed remains dormant at any given germination opportunity with the potential of germinating later when environmental conditions may differ. Previous theory shows that environmental variation is critical for the evolution of dormancy. However, these studies have focused on temporal variation in reproduction, ignoring the strong observed effects of environmental variation on the germination fraction, a major contributor to fitness variance. We ask what effects germination fluctuations have on selection for dormancy by adding germination fluctuations to existing density-independent (d.i.) and density-dependent (d.d.) models of annual plant dynamics, extending previous analyses by including temporally fluctuating germination. Specifically, we ask how germination variance affects selection on the temporal average germination fraction, here used to define dormancy. When present alone, or when independently varying with other fitness components, germination fluctuations do not affect selection for dormancy in the d.i. model, despite generating fitness variance because this variance contribution is not reduced by higher dormancy. Germination fluctuations have strong effects in the d.d. model, favoring dormancy when present either alone or coupled with variation affecting plant growth. This is because germination variation causes seedling density to vary, which causes variable reproduction through variable intraspecific competition. Dormancy is advantaged under variable reproduction because it creates a more convex relationship between population growth and reproduction leading to benefits from nonlinear averaging. Predictive germination, a positive statistical association between germination and growth, weakens selection for dormancy under strong competition and strengthens it when competition is weak. Our results suggest that variable germination is a potential explanation for high levels of dormancy observed in nature, with implications for life-history theory for fluctuating environments.

Developmental noise and ecological opportunity across space can release constraints on the evolution of plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity is a potentially definitive solution to environment heterogeneity, driving biologists to understand why it is not ubiquitous in nature. While costs and constraints may limit the success of plasticity, we are still far from a complete theory of when these limitations actually proscribe adaptive plasticity. Here I use a simple model of plasticity incorporating developmental noise to explore the competitive and evolutionary relationships of specialist and generalist genotypes spreading across a heterogeneous landscape. Results show that plasticity can arise in the context of specialism, preadapting genotypes to later evolve toward plastic generalism. Developmental noise helps a mutant with imperfect plasticity successfully compete against its ancestor, providing an evolutionary path by which subsequent mutations can refine plasticity toward its optimum. These results address how the complex selection pressures across a heterogeneous environment can help evolution find paths around constraints arising from developmental mechanisms.

Rainfall seasonality predicts the germination behavior of a tropical dry-forest vine

Seed dormancy is considered to be an adaptive strategy in seasonal and/or unpredictable environments because it prevents germination during climatically favorable periods that are too short for seedling establishment. Tropical dry forests are seasonal environments where seed dormancy may play an important role in plant resilience and resistance to changing precipitation patterns. We studied the germination behavior of seeds from six populations of the Neotropical vine Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) originating from environments of contrasting rainfall seasonality. Seeds produced by second greenhouse-generation plants were measured and exposed to a favorable wet environment at different time intervals after capsule dehiscence and seed dispersal. We recorded the success and the timing of germination. All populations produced at least some dormant seeds, but seeds of populations originating from more seasonal environments required longer periods of after-ripening before germinating. Within populations, larger seeds tended to require longer after-ripening periods than did smaller seeds. These results indicate among-population genetic differences in germination behavior and suggest that these populations are adapted to local environmental conditions. They also suggest that seed size may influence germination timing within populations. Ongoing changes in seasonality patterns in tropical dry forests may impose strong selection on these traits.

Temperature variability drives within-species variation in germination strategy and establishment characteristics of an alpine herb

Plant establishment and subsequent persistence are strongly influenced by germination strategy, especially in temporally and spatially heterogeneous environments. Germination strategy determines the plant's ability to synchronise germination timing and seedling emergence to a favourable growing season and thus variation in germination strategy within species may be key to persistence under more extreme and variable future climates. However, the determinants of variation in germination strategy are not well resolved. To understand the variation of germination strategy and the climate drivers, we assessed seed traits, germination patterns, and seedling establishment traits of Oreomyrrhis eriopoda from 29 populations across its range. Germination patterns were then analysed against climate data to determine the strongest climate correlates influencing the germination strategy. Oreomyrrhis eriopoda exhibits a striking range of germination strategies among populations: varying from immediate to staggered, postponed, and postponed-deep. Seeds from regions with lower temperature variability were more likely to exhibit an immediate germination strategy; however, those patterns depended on the timescale of climatic assessment. In addition, we show that these strategy differences extend to seedling establishment traits: autumn seedlings (from populations with an immediate or staggered germination strategy) exhibited a higher leaf production rate than spring seedlings (of staggered or postponed strategy). Our results demonstrate not only substantial within-species variation in germination strategy across the species distribution range, but also that this variation correlates with environmental drivers. Given that these differences also extend to establishment traits, they may reflect a critical mechanism for persistence in changing climate.

Short-term insurance versus long-term bet-hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.

The Bet-Hedging Strategies for Seedling Emergence of Calligonum mongolicum to Adapt to the Extreme Desert Environments in Northwestern China

Calligonum mongolicum is a dominant native perennial shrub on sand dunes in arid deserts of northwestern China, and is therefore widely used in sand dune stabilization in these regions. However, it remains largely unknown how seedling emergence of C. mongolicum has adapted to unpredictable sand movement and extreme drought. Here we examined effects of seed burial depth, light intensity, and seed age on seedling emergence, and considered seed germination and seedling emergence strategies for the shrub's adaption to the desert environment. In our pot experiment, the optimum seeding depth for emergence of C. mongolicum was 2 cm, indicating that for germination and seedling emergence only moderate sand burial is required. Light intensity at the surface soil (0 cm) was important for seedling emergence, while there was no significant difference between 50 and 20% light flux density, at burial depths of 1 and 2 cm, indicating that C. mongolicum seeds had adapted to sand burial, while not exposure from sand erosion. We also found C. mongolicum seedlings emerged in spring and in late summer to early autumn. Meanwhile, seedling emergence percentage for 3-year-old seeds was similar to that of 1-year-old seeds, which meant that C. mongolicum seeds were well preserved under normal sand dune conditions, thus were capable of developing a persistent, but shallow soil seed-bank. These results indicated that germination and seedling emergence take a bet-hedging strategies to adapt to variable desert environments. Our study confirmed that C. mongolicum desert shrubs combine strategies in its adaption to arid and variable sand environments.

Constraints Imposed by a Natural Landscape Override Offspring Fitness Effects to Shape Oviposition Decisions in Wild Forked Fungus Beetles

Oviposition site decisions often maximize offspring fitness, but costs constraining choice can cause females to oviposit in poor developmental environments. It is unclear whether these constraints cumulatively outweigh offspring fitness to determine oviposition decisions in wild populations. Understanding how constraints shape oviposition in natural landscapes is a critical step toward revealing how maternal behavior influences fundamental phenomena like the evolution of specialization and the use of sink environments. Here, we used a genetic capture-recapture technique to reconstruct the oviposition decisions of individual females in a natural metapopulation of a beetle (Bolitotherus cornutus) that oviposits on three fungus species. We measured larval fitness-related traits (mass, development time, survival) on each fungus and compared the oviposition preferences of females in laboratory versus field tests. Larval fitness differed substantially among fungi, and females preferred a high-quality (high larval fitness) fungus in laboratory trials. However, females frequently laid eggs on the lowest-quality fungus in the wild. They preferred high-quality fungi when moving between oviposition sites, but this preference disappeared as the distance between sites increased and was inconsistent between study plots. Our results suggest that constraints on oviposition preferences in natural landscapes are sufficiently large to drive oviposition in poor developmental environments even when offspring fitness consequences are severe.

Aberrant clones: Birth order generates life history diversity in Greater Duckweed, Spirodela polyrhiza

Environmental unpredictability is known to result in the evolution of bet-hedging traits. Variable dormancy enhances survival through harsh conditions, and is widely cited as a diversification bet-hedging trait. The floating aquatic plant, Spirodela polyrhiza (Greater Duckweed), provides an opportunity to study diversification because although partially reliable seasonal cues exist, its growing season is subject to an unpredictable and literally "hard" termination when the surface water freezes, and overwinter survival depends on a switch from production of normal daughter fronds to production of dense, sinking "turions" prior to freeze-over. The problem for S. polyrhiza is that diversified dormancy behavior must be generated among clonally produced, genetically identical offspring. Variation in phenology has been observed in the field, but its sources are unknown. Here, we investigate sources of phenological variation in turion production, and test the hypothesis that diversification in turion phenology is generated within genetic lineages through effects of parental birth order. As expected, phenotypic plasticity to temperature is expressed along a thermal gradient; more interestingly, parental birth order was found to have a significant and strong effect on turion phenology: Turions are produced earlier by late birth-order parents. These results hold regardless of whether turion phenology is measured as first turion birth order, time to first turion, or turion frequency. This study addresses a question of current interest on potential mechanisms generating diversification, and suggests that consistent phenotypic differences across birth orders generate life history variation.

Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?

Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change.

Clinal population divergence in an adaptive parental environmental effect that adjusts seed banking

Bet-hedging via between-year seed dormancy is a costly strategy for plants in unpredictable environments. Theoretically, fitness costs can be reduced through a parental environmental effect when the environment is partly predictable. We tested whether populations from environments that differ in predictability diverged in parental effects on seed dormancy. Common garden-produced seeds of the two annual plant species Biscutella didyma and Bromus fasciculatus collected along an aridity gradient were grown under 12 irrigation treatments. Offspring germination was evaluated and related to environmental correlations between generations and their fitness consequences at the four study sites. One species exhibited strong seed dormancy that increased with unpredictability in seasonal precipitation. The parental effect on seed dormancy also increased proportionally with the environmental correlation between precipitation in the parental season and seedling density in the following season; this correlation increased from mesic to arid environments. Because fitness was negatively related to density, this parental effect may be adaptive. However, the lack of dormancy in the second species indicates that bet-hedging is not the only strategy for annual plants in arid environments. Our results provide the first evidence for clinal variation in the relative strength of parental effects along environmental gradients.

When sensing is gambling: An experimental system reveals how plasticity can generate tunable bet-hedging strategies

Genotypes can persist in unpredictable environments by "hedging their bets" and producing diverse phenotypes. Theoretical studies have shown that the phenotypic variability needed for a bet-hedging strategy can be generated by factors either inside or outside an organism. However, sensing the environment and bet hedging are frequently treated as distinct evolutionary strategies. Furthermore, nearly all empirical studies of the molecular underpinnings of bet-hedging strategies to date have focused on internal sources of variability. We took a synthetic approach and constructed an experimental system where a phenotypic trade-off is mediated by actively sensing a cue present in the environment. We show that active sensing can generate a diversified bet-hedging strategy. Mutations affecting the norm of reaction to the cue alter the diversification strategy, indicating that bet hedging by active sensing is evolvable. Our results indicate that a broader class of biological systems should be considered as potential examples of bet-hedging strategies, and that research into the structure of environmental variability is needed to distinguish bet-hedging strategies from adaptive plasticity.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in precipitation patterns explain population-level germination strategies in an edaphic specialist

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Many locally endemic species in biodiversity hotspots are restricted to edaphic conditions that are fixed in the landscape, limiting their potential to track climate change through dispersal. Instead, such species experience strong selection for germination strategies that can track suitable conditions through time. Germination strategies were compared among populations across the geographic range of a California vernal pool annual, Lasthenia fremontii Local germination strategies were tested to determine the associations with geographic variation in precipitation patterns.

METHODS

This study evaluated patterns of seed germination, dormancy and mortality in response to simulated variation in the timing, amount and duration of the first autumn precipitation event using seeds from six populations that span a geographic gradient in precipitation. Next, it was tested whether the germination strategies of different populations can be predicted by historical precipitation patterns that characterize each site.

KEY RESULTS

A significant positive relationship was observed between the historical variability in autumn precipitation and the extent of dormancy in a population. Marginal populations, with histories of the most extreme but constant autumn precipitation levels, expressed the lowest dormancy levels. Populations from sites with historically higher levels of autumn precipitation tended to germinate faster, but this tendency was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Germination in L. fremontii is cued by the onset of the first rains that characterize the beginning of winter in California's Great Central Valley. However, populations differ in how fast they germinate and the fraction of seeds that remain dormant when germination cues occur. The results suggest that seed dormancy may be a key trait for populations to track increasingly drier climates predicted by climate change models. However, the low dormancy and high mortality levels observed among seeds of the southernmost, driest populations make them most vulnerable to local extinction.

Transgenerational plasticity of reproduction depends on rate of warming across generations

Predicting the impacts of climate change to biological systems requires an understanding of the ability for species to acclimate to the projected environmental change through phenotypic plasticity. Determining the effects of higher temperatures on individual performance is made more complex by the potential for environmental conditions experienced in previous and current generations to independently affect phenotypic responses to high temperatures. We used a model coral reef fish (Acanthochromis polyacanthus) to investigate the influence of thermal conditions experienced by two generations on reproductive output and the quality of offspring produced by adults. We found that more gradual warming over two generations, +1.5°C in the first generation and then +3.0°C in the second generation, resulted in greater plasticity of reproductive attributes, compared to fish that experienced the same increase in one generation. Reproduction ceased at the projected future summer temperature (31.5°C) when fish experienced +3.0°C for two generations. Additionally, we found that transgenerational plasticity to +1.5°C induced full restoration of thermally affected reproductive and offspring attributes, which was not possible with developmental plasticity alone. Our results suggest that transgenerational effects differ depending on the absolute thermal change and in which life stage the thermal change is experienced.

Developmental mechanisms underlying variable, invariant and plastic phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Discussions of phenotypic robustness often consider scenarios where invariant phenotypes are optimal and assume that developmental mechanisms have evolved to buffer the phenotypes of specific traits against stochastic and environmental perturbations. However, plastic plant phenotypes that vary between environments or variable phenotypes that vary stochastically within an environment may also be advantageous in some scenarios.

SCOPE

Here the conditions under which invariant, plastic and variable phenotypes of specific traits may confer a selective advantage in plants are examined. Drawing on work from microbes and multicellular organisms, the mechanisms that may give rise to each type of phenotype are discussed.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to the view of robustness as being the ability of a genotype to produce a single, invariant phenotype, changes in a phenotype in response to the environment, or phenotypic variability within an environment, may also be delivered consistently (i.e. robustly). Thus, for some plant traits, mechanisms have probably evolved to produce plasticity or variability in a reliable manner.

Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks

Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment mothers, particularly at 21 °C. In summary, stickleback mothers may have used both TGP and diversified bet-hedging strategies to cope with the dual stress of ocean warming and environmental uncertainty.

Differences in developmental strategies between long-settled and invasion-front populations of the cane toad in Australia

Phenotypic plasticity can enhance a species' ability to persist in a new and stressful environment, so that reaction norms are expected to evolve as organisms encounter novel environments. Biological invasions provide a robust system to investigate such changes. We measured the rates of early growth and development in tadpoles of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in Australia, from a range of locations and at different larval densities. Populations in long-colonized areas have had the opportunity to adapt to local conditions, whereas at the expanding range edge, the invader is likely to encounter challenges that are both novel and unpredictable. We thus expected invasion-vanguard populations to exhibit less phenotypic plasticity than range-core populations. Compared to clutches from long-colonized areas, clutches from the invasion front were indeed less plastic (i.e. rates of larval growth and development were less sensitive to density). In contrast, those rates were highly variable in clutches from the invasion front, even among siblings from the same clutch under standard conditions. Clutches with highly variable rates of growth and development under constant conditions had lower phenotypic plasticity, suggesting a trade-off between these two strategies. Although these results reveal a strong pattern, further investigation is needed to determine whether these different developmental strategies are adaptive (i.e. adaptive phenotypic plasticity vs. bet-hedging) or instead are driven by geographic variation in genetic quality or parental effects.

A mathematical model of the evolution of individual differences in developmental plasticity arising through parental bet-hedging

Children vary in the extent to which their development is shaped by particular experiences (e.g. maltreatment, social support). This variation raises a question: Is there no single level of plasticity that maximizes biological fitness? One influential hypothesis states that when different levels of plasticity are optimal in different environmental states and the environment fluctuates unpredictably, natural selection may favor parents producing offspring with varying levels of plasticity. The current article presents a mathematical model assessing the logic of this hypothesis--specifically, it examines what conditions are required for natural selection to favor parents to bet-hedge by varying their offspring's plasticity. Consistent with existing theory from biology, results show that between-individual variation in plasticity cannot evolve when the environment only varies across space. If, however, the environment varies across time, selection can favor differential plasticity, provided fitness effects are large (i.e. variation in individuals' plasticity is correlated with substantial variation in fitness). Our model also generates a novel restriction: Differential plasticity only evolves when the cost of being mismatched to the environment exceeds the benefits of being well matched. Based on mechanistic considerations, we argue that bet-hedging by varying offspring plasticity, if it were to evolve, would be more likely instantiated via epigenetic mechanisms (e.g. pre- or postnatal developmental programming) than genetic ones (e.g. mating with genetically diverse partners). Our model suggests novel avenues for testing the bet-hedging hypothesis of differential plasticity, including empirical predictions and relevant measures. We also discuss several ways in which future work might extend our model.

Why wait? Three mechanisms selecting for environment-dependent developmental delays

Many species delay development unless particular environments or rare disturbance events occur. How can such a strategy be favoured over continued development? Typically, it is assumed that continued development (e.g. germination) is not advantageous in environments that have low juvenile/seedling survival (mechanism 1), either due to abiotic or competitive effects. However, it has not previously been shown how low early survival must be in order to favour environment-specific developmental delays for long-lived species. Using seed dormancy as an example of developmental delays, we identify a threshold level of seedling survival in 'bad' environments below which selection can favour germination that is limited to 'good' environments. This can be used to evaluate whether observed differences in seedling survival are sufficient to favour conditional germination. We also present mathematical models that demonstrate two other, often overlooked, mechanisms that can favour conditional germination in the absence of differences in seedling survival. Specifically, physiological trade-offs can make it difficult to have germination rates that are equally high in all environments (mechanism 2). We show that such trade-offs can either favour conditional germination or intermediate (mixed) strategies, depending on the trade-off shape. Finally, germination in every year increases the likelihood that some individuals are killed in population-scale disturbances before reproducing; it can thus be favourable to only germinate immediately after a disturbance (mechanism 3). We demonstrate how demographic data can be used to evaluate these selection pressures. By presenting these three mechanisms and the conditions that favour conditional germination in each case, we provide three hypotheses that can be tested as explanations for the evolution of environment-dependent developmental delays.