Predictive value of Refit Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Refit Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na, and pre-existing scoring system for 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

MELD-GRAIL-Na Is a Better Predictor of Mortality Than MELD in Korean Patients with Cirrhosis

Background and Objectives: The Child–Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are classical systems for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). The MELD-GFR assessment in liver disease–sodium (MELD-GRAIL-Na) was designed to better reflect renal function and, therefore, provide better mortality predictions. This study aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of MELD-GRAIL-Na compared to CP and MELD in predicting short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients. Materials and Methods: Medical records of patients with LC admitted to the Konkuk University Hospital from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive values of the CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na for 1-month and 3-month mortality were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and were compared using DeLong’s test. Results: In total, 1249 patients were enrolled; 102 died within 1 month, and 146 within 3 months. AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.831, 0.847, and 0.857 for 1-month mortality and 0.837, 0.827, and 0.835 for 3-month mortality, respectively, indicating no statistical significance. For patients with CP classes B and C, AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.782, 0.809, and 0.825 for 1-month mortality and 0.775, 0.769, and 0.786 for 3-month mortality, respectively. There was a significant difference between CP and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month mortality (p = 0.0428) and between MELD and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month (p = 0.0493) and 3-month mortality (p = 0.0225). Conclusions: Compared to CP and MELD, MELD-GRAIL-Na was found to be a better and more useful system for evaluating short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis, especially those with advanced cirrhosis (CP class B and C).

CHIBA score: a novel model for predicting 3-month mortality in a cohort of Decompensated Liver Disease (DCLD)

Background

Decompensated liver disease (DCLD) has high mortality, and its prediction is important to prognosticate and prioritize patients for liver transplantation. MELD, MELD variants, and CTP were widely tested for mortality prediction with few drawbacks. The aim of the study is to propose a new prognostic model for DCLD which is better than the existing scores.

Materials and methods

Retrospective study with 321 DCLD patients were enrolled. Patient relatives were telephonically contacted regarding date of death, and mortality at 3 months was assessed. Logistic regression was done, coefficient of beta of independent variables were found out, and a new CHIBA score was proposed.

CHIBA score = creatinine × 0.6 + HE × 0.4+ INR × 0.8 + bilirubin × 0.125 + ascites × 1.2) where C stands for creatinine, H for hepatic encephalopathy, I for INR, B for bilirubin, and A for ascites.

Results

CHIBA score has AUROC of 0.793 (at a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 66% and specificity of 76%) compared to MELD-Na of 0.735 (cutoff > 25, sensitivity 65%, and specificity 72%); MELD of 0.727 (cutoff > 17 sensitivity of 80.37% and specificity of 55.14%); I-MELD of 0.72; MESO index of 0.72; and UKELD of 0.686. For validation, 214 patients were selected, and AUROC of CHIBA score in the validation cohort was 0.77. At a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 77%.

Conclusion

CHIBA score is superior to MELD and MELD variants in predicting 3-month mortality, and it is validated in an external cohort. It can be calculated at bedside as it is a simple score with no logarithmic variables in it.

Integrated model for end-stage liver disease maybe superior to some other model for end-stage liver disease-based systems in addition to Child-Turcotte-Pugh and albumin-bilirubin scores in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

OBJECTIVES

For mortality prediction of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhosis, no direct comparisons have been made among the eight models, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) score, MELD to sodium (MESO) index, modification of the MELD scoring system (Refit MELD), Refit MELD-Na and Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2005 and July 2017, 314 patients who met the criteria for liver cirrhosis with the first episode of SBP were enrolled in this retrospective study. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained at diagnosis. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or death.

RESULTS

Patients were predominantly middle-aged male. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection accounted for the majority of the etiologies (41.7%) with 33.6% of the patients received antivirals. The in-hospital mortality rate was 39.8%. The cumulative 3-month and 6-month mortality rates were 51.6 and 60.2%, respectively. For patients with HBV related, not hepatitis C virus or alcohol related, liver cirrhosis, iMELD had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortality.

CONCLUSION

For patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and SBP, iMELD had the highest AUC among these eight models and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortalities.

Prognosis of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious infectious complication in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, information about prognosis of SBP in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients is limited. We investigated the clinical course of SBP in HCC patients.

METHODS

This study enrolled patients diagnosed with SBP between 2005 and 2017. Medical records of patients were reviewed and clinical course was compared between the non-HCC and HCC groups.

RESULTS

In total, 123 SBP cases including 49 HCC cases were enrolled. Men were predominant (48/74, 64.9% vs. 34/49, 69.4%; P = 0.697); median age was 58 years in both non-HCC and HCC groups (P = 0.887). The most common etiology was alcohol (32/74, 43.2%) in non-HCC group and hepatitis B (30/49, 61.2%) in HCC group (P = 0.009). Antibiotic resistance rate was higher in non-HCC than in HCC group (29.7% vs. 12.2%; P = 0.028); in-hospital mortality did not differ between the groups (25/74, 33.8% vs. 13/49, 26.5%; P = 0.431). Development rate of hepatorenal syndrome did not differ between non-HCC and HCC group (14/74, 18.9% vs. 10/49, 20.4%; P = 1.000), but hepatic encephalopathy was less common in HCC group (26/74, 35.2% vs. 9/49, 18.3%; P = 0.008). The most important predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with HCC was white blood cell count above 11,570 cells/mm³ (odds ratio, 6.629; 95% confidence interval, 1.652-26.590; P = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Prognosis of SBP in HCC patients is relatively less severe. This result may be related with reduced antibiotics resistance and lower development rates of other complications, such as hepatic encephalopathy. Degree of systemic inflammation may be the most important factor for in-hospital mortality.

Mid-infrared spectroscopy of serum, a promising non-invasive method to assess prognosis in patients with ascites and cirrhosis

Background & aims

Prognostic tests are critical in the management of patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Biological tests or scores perform poorly in that situation. Mid-infrared fibre evanescent wave spectroscopy (MIR-FEWS) which allows for global serum metabolic profiling may provide more relevant information by measuring a wider range of metabolic parameters in serum. Here we present the accuracy of a MIR-FEWS based predictive model for the prognosis of 6 months survival in patients with ascites and cirrhosis.

Methods

Patients with ascites were prospectively included and followed up for 6 months. MIR-FEWS spectra were measured in serum samples. The most informative spectral variables obtained by MIR-FEWS were selected by FADA algorithm and then used to build the MIR model. Accuracy of this model was assessed by ROC curves and 90%/10% Monte Carlo cross-validation. MIR model accuracy for 6 months survival was compared to that of the Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

Results

119 patients were included. The mean age was 57.36±13.70, the MELD score was 16.32±6.26, and the Child-Pugh score was 9.5±1.83. During follow-up, 23 patients died (20%). The MIR model had an AUROC for 6 months mortality of 0.90 (CI95: 0.88–0.91), the MELD 0.77 (CI95: 0.66–0.89) and Child-Pugh 0.76 (CI95: 0.66–0.88). MELD and Child-Pugh AUROCs were significantly lower than that of the MIR model (p = 0.02 and p = 0.02 respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MELD (p<0.05, OR:0.86;CI95:0.76–0.97), Beta blockers (p = 0.036;OR:0.20;CI95:0.04–0.90), and the MIR model (p<0.001; OR:0.50; CI95:0.37–0.66), were significantly associated with 6 months mortality.

Conclusions

In this pilot study MIR-FEWS more accurately assess the 6-month prognosis of patients with ascites and cirrhosis than the MELD or Child-Pugh scores. These promising results, if confirmed by a larger study, suggest that mid infrared spectroscopy could be helpful in the management of these patients.

Usefulness of albumin-bilirubin grade for evaluation of long-term prognosis for hepatitis B-related cirrhosis

Long-term prognosis varies widely among patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis. Our study aimed to investigate the applicability of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores to the long-term prognosis prediction of HBV-related cirrhosis. Patients diagnosed with HBV-associated cirrhosis from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2010 and December 2015 were enrolled in this study. The patients were followed up every 3 months. The prognostic performance of ALBI in long-term outcome prediction for HBV-related cirrhosis was compared with Child-Pugh and MELD scores using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and decision curve analysis. A total of 806 patients were included in our study with 275 (34.1%) deceased during the follow-up. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that ALBI grade was an independent predictor associated with mortality. The tdROC analysis showed that ALBI score (0.787, 0.830 and 0.833) was superior to MELD (0.693, P=.003; 0.717, P<.001; 0.744, P<.001) and Child-Pugh score (0.641, P<.001; 0.649, P<.001; 0.657, P<.001) for predicting 1-year, 2-year and 3-year mortality. Additionally, decision curves also got the similar results. In addition, patients with lower ALBI score had a longer life expectancy, even among patients within the same Child-Pugh class. Thus, ALBI score was effective in predicting the long-term prognosis for patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and more accurate than Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Challenges and opportunities in drug and biomarker development for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: findings and recommendations from an American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases-U.S. Food and Drug Administration Joint Workshop

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) in North America. It is a growing contributor to the burden of CDL requiring liver transplantation. Cirrhosis is also associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular cancer, which may occur even in the absence of cirrhosis in subjects with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the histological form of NAFLD associated with increased liver-related mortality. The diagnosis of NASH currently requires a liver biopsy. There are also no U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved therapies for NASH. Therefore, there is a need to develop better diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for patients with NASH, targeting both those with early-stage disease as well as those with advanced liver fibrosis. There are unique challenges in the design of studies for these target populations. The long relatively asymptomatic time interval in the progression of NAFLD and NASH to cirrhosis and ultimately liver failure, along with gaps in knowledge regarding disease modifiers, combine to present significant challenges in trial design. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop methods to identify the populations at particular risk of disease progression and validate endpoints that reflect meaningful changes in health status in this population. This article summarizes the discussion at a joint workshop held September 5 and 6, 2013 in Silver Spring, Maryland, sponsored by the FDA and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases to develop guidance on diagnostic and therapeutic modalities for NASH.

The performance of prognostic models as predictors of mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic models have been proposed for cirrhotic patients listed for transplantation, the performance of these scores as predictors of mortality in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis has not been satisfactorily investigated.

AIMS

To study MELD, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit-MELD and Refit MELD-Na models as prognostic predictors in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation, and to compare their performance between admission and 48 hours of hospitalization to predict in-hospital mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cohort study included cirrhotic patients admitted to hospital due to complications of the disease. Individuals were evaluated on admission and after 48 h of hospitalization, and mortality was evaluated during the present admission.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-three subjects with a mean age of 54.26 ± 10.79 years were included; 76.4% were male. Mean MELD score was 16.43 ± 7.08 and 52.0% of patients were Child-Pugh C. Twenty-seven patients (22.0%) died during hospitalization. Similar areas under the curve (AUROCs) for prognosis of mortality were observed when different models were compared on admission (P > 0.05) and after 48 h of hospitalization (P > 0.05). When models executed after 48 h of hospitalization were compared to their corresponding model calculated on admission, significantly higher AUROCs were obtained for all models (P < 0.05), except for MELD-Na (P = 0.075) and iMELD (P = 0.119).

CONCLUSION

The studied models showed similar accuracy as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation. However, the performance of these models was significantly better when applied 48 h after admission when compared to their calculation on admission.

Prognostic factors in patients with refractory ascites treated by transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt: From the liver to the kidney

BACKGROUND

The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic value of different scores (including Child-Pugh and Model for End Stage Liver Diseases) in cirrhotic patients treated with transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt for refractory ascites.

METHODS

Overall, 111 patients with transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt insertion between January 1998 and July 2012 were included.

RESULTS

Survival rates (without transplantation) were 82.0% at 3 months, and 59.4% at 1 year. In addition to standard parameters, a new simple classification based on platelet count and glomerular filtration rate showed strong prognostic ability and could distinguish 3 groups of patients (Log-rank test, p<0.001): a "good-prognosis" group with platelet counts above 125×10(9)L(-1) and a glomerular filtration rate above 90 mL/min (1-year survival rate 92%), a "poor-prognosis" group with platelet counts below 125×10(9)L(-1) and a glomerular filtration rate below 90 mL/min (1-year survival rate 34.8%), and an "intermediate-prognosis" group (1-year survival rate 58.2%). Multivariate analysis showed a hazard ratio of 6.34 for the intermediate class and of 12.623 for the high class.

CONCLUSIONS

A new and simple classification including platelet count and glomerular filtration rate is highly predictive of survival in patients with refractory ascites treated with transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt and could be used to select patients for this procedure.

MELD-Na: effective in predicting rebleeding in cirrhosis after cessation of esophageal variceal hemorrhage by endoscopic therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is no study verifying the predictive value of model for end-stage liver disease and sodium (MELD-Na) for rebleeding and its associated mortality in cirrhotic patients after cessation of acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage (AVH) by endoscopic therapy. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of MELD-Na by comparing with MELD or Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Consecutive adult cirrhotic patients after cessation of AVH by endoscopic therapy (endoscopic variceal ligation or sclerotherapy injections) within 48 hours of admission admitted from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data at admission were documented, based on which MELD-Na, MELD, and CTP scores were calculated.

RESULTS

Among 429 patients who had complete control of AVH, 97 patients (22.6%) suffered esophageal variceal rebleeding within 3 months and 206 patients (48.0%) within 1 year. Fifty-three patients (12.4%) died within 3 months and 98 patients (22.8%) within 1 year from rebleeding. The area under receiver operator characteristics curve of the MELD-Na score for predicting rebleeding and its associated mortality was significantly higher than that of the MELD and the CTP score (rebleeding: 0.83 vs. 0.77 vs. 0.69 for 3 months and 0.85 vs. 0.80 vs. 0.65 for 1 year, P<0.05; mortality: 0.81 vs. 0.75 vs. 0.66 for 3 months and 0.82 vs. 0.78 vs. 0.68 for 1 year, P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD-Na score is clinically useful in predicting 3-month and 1-year rebleeding and its associated mortality in cirrhotic patients after cessation of AVH by endoscopic therapy.

The Refit model for end-stage liver disease-Na is not a better predictor of mortality than the Refit model for end-stage liver disease in patients with cirrhosis and ascites

Background/Aims

The modification of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system (Refit MELD) and the modification of MELD-Na (Refit MELDNa), which optimized the MELD coefficients, were published in 2011. We aimed to validate the superiority of the Refit MELDNa over the Refit MELD for the prediction of 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Methods

We reviewed the medical records of patients admitted with hepatic cirrhosis and ascites to the Konkuk University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2011. The Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa were compared using the predictive value of the 3-month mortality, as assessed by the Child-Pugh score.

Results

In total, 530 patients were enrolled, 87 of whom died within 3 months. Alcohol was the most common etiology of their cirrhosis (n=271, 51.1%), and the most common cause of death was variceal bleeding (n=20, 23%). The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) for the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores were 0.754, 0.791, and 0.764 respectively; the corresponding values when the analysis was performed only in patients with persistent ascites (n=115) were 0.725, 0.804, and 0.796, respectively. The significant difference found among the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores was between the Child-Pugh score and Refit MELD in patients with persistent ascites (P=0.039).

Conclusions

Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa exhibited good predictability for 3-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. However, Refit MELDNa was not found to be a better predictor than Refit MELD, despite the known relationship between hyponatremia and mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites.