Restricted mean survival time versus conventional measures for treatment decision-making

Prognostic nomogram and epidemiological analysis for lung atypical carcinoid: A SEER database and external validation study

PURPOSE

Our study aims to delineate the epidemiological distribution of pulmonary carcinoids, including atypical carcinoid (AC) and typical carcinoid (TC), identify independent prognostic factors, develop an integrative nomogram and examine the effects of various surgical modalities on atypical carcinoid-specific survival (ACSS).

METHODS

Joinpoint regression model and age-group distribution diagram were applied to determine the epidemiological trend of the pulmonary carcinoids. Univariate and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based Cox regression models were used to identify independent factors, and a nomogram and web-based predictor were developed to evaluate prognosis of AC patients individually. We performed Kaplan-Meier survival analyses to compare the scope of various surgical interventions, with and without G-computation adjustment, utilising restricted mean survival time (RMST) to assess survival disparities.

RESULTS

A total of 1132 patients were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) and a separate medical centre in China. The mean age of AC patients was 63.4 years and a smoking history was identified in 79.8% of AC patients. Joinpoint analysis shows rising annual rates of new AC and carcinoid cases among lung cancers. Both the proportion of pulmonary TC and AC within the total lung cancer population exhibits an L-shaped trend across successive age groups. The nomogram predicted 1, 3 and 5 years of AC with excellent accuracy and discrimination. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, conducted both pre- and post-adjustment, demonstrated that sublobar resection's survival outcomes were not inferior to those of lobectomy in patients with stage I-II and stage III disease.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first to reveal epidemiological trends in pulmonary carcinoids over the past decade and across various age cohorts. For patients with early-stage AC, sublobar resection may be a viable surgical recommendation. The established nomogram and web-based calculator demonstrated decent accuracy and practicality.

Restricted mean survival time versus conventional effect summary for treatment decision-making: A mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Treatment effect is typically summarized in terms of relative risk reduction or number needed to treat ("conventional effect summary"). Restricted mean survival time (RMST) summarizes treatment effect in terms of a gain or loss in event-free days. Older adults' preference between the two effect summary measures has not been studied.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed methods study using a quantitative survey and qualitative semi-structured interviews. For the survey, we enrolled 102 residents with hypertension at five senior housing facilities (mean age 81.3 years, 82 female, 95 white race). We randomly assigned respondents to either RMST-based (n = 49) or conventional decision aid (n = 53) about the benefits and harms of intensive versus standard blood pressure-lowering strategies and compared decision conflict scale (DCS) responses (range: 0 [no conflict] to 100 [maximum conflict]; <25 is associated with implementing decisions). We used a purposive sample of 23 survey respondents stratified by both their random assignment and DCS from the survey. Inductive qualitative thematic analysis explored complementary perspectives on preferred ways of summarizing treatment effects.

RESULTS

The mean (standard deviation) total DCS was 22.0 (14.3) for the conventional decision aid group and 16.7 (14.1) for the RMST-based decision aid group (p = 0.06), but the proportion of participants with a DCS <25 was higher in the RMST-based group (26 [49.1%] vs 34 [69.4%]; p = 0.04). Qualitative interviews suggested that, regardless of effect summary measure, older individuals' preference depended on their ability to clearly comprehend quantitative information, clarity of presentation in the visual aid, and inclusion of desired information.

CONCLUSIONS

When choosing a blood pressure-lowering strategy, older adults' perceived uncertainty may be reduced with a time-based effect summary, although our study was underpowered to detect a statistically significant difference. Given highly variable individual preferences, it may be useful to present both conventional and RMST-based information in decision aids.

Intensive Versus Standard Blood Pressure Lowering and Days Free of Cardiovascular Events and Serious Adverse Events: a Post Hoc Analysis of Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial

BACKGROUND

Communication of the benefits and harms of blood pressure lowering strategy is crucial for shared decision-making.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the effect of intensive versus standard systolic blood pressure lowering in terms of the number of event-free days DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial PARTICIPANTS: A total of 9361 adults 50 years or older without diabetes or stroke who had a systolic blood pressure of 130-180 mmHg and elevated cardiovascular risk INTERVENTIONS: Intensive (systolic blood pressure goal <120 mmHg) versus standard blood pressure lowering (<140 mmHg) MAIN MEASURES: Days free of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), serious adverse events (SAE), and monitored adverse events (hypotension, syncope, bradycardia, electrolyte abnormalities, injurious falls, or acute kidney injury) over a median follow-up of 3.33 years KEY RESULTS: The intensive treatment group gained 14.7 more MACE-free days over 4 years (difference, 14.7 [95% confidence interval: 5.1, 24.4] days) than the standard treatment group. The benefit of the intensive treatment varied by cognitive function (normal: difference, 40.7 [13.0, 68.4] days; moderate-to-severe impairment: difference, -15.0 [-56.5, 26.4] days; p-for-interaction=0.009) and self-rated health (excellent: difference, -22.7 [-51.5, 6.1] days; poor: difference, 156.1 [31.1, 281.2] days; p-for-interaction=0.001). The mean overall SAE-free days were not significantly different between the treatments (difference, -14.8 [-35.3, 5.7] days). However, the intensive treatment group had 28.5 fewer monitored adverse event-free days than the standard treatment group (difference, -28.5 [-40.3, -16.7] days), with significant variations by frailty status (non-frail: difference, 38.8 [8.4, 69.2] days; frail: difference, -15.5 [-46.6, 15.7] days) and self-rated health (excellent: difference, -12.9 [-45.5, 19.7] days; poor: difference, 180.6 [72.9, 288.4] days; p-for-interaction <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Over 4 years, intensive systolic blood pressure lowering provides, on average, 14.7 more MACE-free days than standard treatment, without any difference in SAE-free days. Whether this time-based effect summary improves shared decision-making remains to be elucidated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Registration: NCT01206062.

Identification of immune-related ferroptosis prognostic marker and in-depth bioinformatics exploration of multi-omics mechanisms in thyroid cancer

Background: Factors such as variations in thyroid carcinoma (THCA) gene characteristics could influence the clinical outcome. Ferroptosis and immunity have been verified to play an essential role in various cancers, and could affect the cancer patients’ prognosis. However, their relationship to the progression and prognosis of many types of THCA remains unclear.

Methods: First, we extracted prognosis-related immune-related genes and ferroptosis-related genes from 2 databases for co-expression analysis to obtain prognosis-related differentially expressed immune-related ferroptosis genes (PR-DE-IRFeGs), and screened BID and CDKN2A for building a prognostic model. Subsequently, multiple validation methods were used to test the model’s performance and compare its performance with other 4 external models. Then, we explored the mechanism of immunity and ferroptosis in the occurrence, development and prognosis of THCA from the perspectives of anti-tumor immunity, CDKN2A-related competitive endogenous RNA regulatory, copy number variations and high frequency gene mutation. Finally, we evaluated this model’s clinical practice value.

Results: BID and CDKN2A were identified as prognostic risk and protective factors, respectively. External data and qRT-PCR experiment also validated their differential expression. The model’s excellent performance has been repeatedly verified and outperformed other models. Risk scores were significantly associated with most immune cells/functions. Risk score/2 PR-DE-IRFeGs expression was strongly associated with BRAF/NRAS/HRAS mutation. Single copy number deletion of CDKN2A is associated with upregulation of CDKN2A expression and worse prognosis. The predicted regulatory network consisting of CYTOR, hsa-miRNA-873-5p and CDKN2A was shown to significantly affect prognosis. The model and corresponding nomogram have been shown to have excellent clinical practice value.

Conclusion: The model can effectively predict the THCA patients’ prognosis and guide clinical treatment. Ferroptosis and immunity may be involved in the THCA’s progression through antitumor immunity and BRAF/NRAS/HRAS mutation. CYTOR-hsa-miRNA-873-5p-CDKN2A regulatory networks and single copy number deletion of CDKN2A may also affect THCA′ progression and prognosis.