Can a smaller than expected crown-rump length reliably predict the occurrence of subsequent miscarriage in a viable first trimester pregnancy?

Temporal and external validation of the algorithm predicting first trimester outcome of a viable pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Symptoms like vaginal bleeding or abdominal pain in early pregnancy can create anxiety about potential miscarriage. Previous studies have demonstrated ultrasonographic variables at the first trimester transvaginal scan (TVS) which can assist in predicting outcomes by 12 weeks gestation.

AIM

To validate the miscarriage risk prediction model (MRP) in women who present with a viable intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) at the primary ultrasound.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A multi-centre diagnostic study of 1490 patients was performed between 2011 and 2019 for retrospective external and 2017-2019 for prospective temporal validation. The reference standard was a viable pregnancy at 12 + 6 weeks. The MRP model is a multinomial logistic regression model based on maternal age, embryonic heart rate, logarithm (gestational sac volume/crown-rump length (CRL)) ratio, CRL and presence or absence of clots.

RESULTS

Temporal validation data from 290 viable IUPs were collected: 225 were viable at the end of the first trimester, 31 had miscarried and 34 were lost to follow-up. External validation data from 1203 viable IUPs were collected at two other ultrasound units: 1062 were viable, 69 had miscarried and 72 were lost to follow-up. Temporal validation with a cut-off of 0.1 demonstrated: area under the curve (AUC) of 0.8 (0.7-0.9), sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 83.9%, positive predictive value (PPV) 35.7%, negative predictive value (NPV) 94.9%, positive likelihood ration (LR+) 4.1 and negative LR (LR-) 0.4. External validation demonstrated: AUC 0.7 (0.7-0.8), sensitivity 44.9%, specificity 90.4%, PPV 23.3%, NPV 96.2%, LR+ 4.6 and LR- 0.6 (0.4-0.7).

CONCLUSION

The MRP model is not able to be used in real time for counselling, and management should be individualised.

Automated prediction of early spontaneous miscarriage based on the analyzing ultrasonographic gestational sac imaging by the convolutional neural network: a case-control and cohort study

Background

It is challenging to predict the outcome of the pregnancy when fetal heart activity is detected in early pregnancy. However, an accurate prediction is of importance for obstetricians as it helps to provide appropriate consultancy and determine the frequency of ultrasound examinations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of the convolutional neural network (CNN) in the prediction of spontaneous miscarriage risk through the analysis of early ultrasound gestational sac images.

Methods

A total of 2196 ultrasound images from 1098 women with early singleton pregnancies of gestational age between 6 and 8 weeks were used for training a CNN for the prediction of the miscarriage in the retrospective study. The patients who had positive fetal cardiac activity on their first ultrasound but then experienced a miscarriage were enrolled. The control group was randomly selected in the same database from the fetuses confirmed to be normal during follow-up. Diagnostic performance of the algorithm was validated and tested in two separate test sets of 136 patients with 272 images, respectively. Performance in prediction of the miscarriage was compared between the CNN and the manual measurement of ultrasound characteristics in the prospective study.

Results

The accuracy of the predictive model was 80.32% and 78.1% in the retrospective and prospective study, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for classification was 0.857 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.793–0.922) in the retrospective study and 0.885 (95%CI, 0.846–0.925) in the prospective study, respectively. Correspondingly, the predictive power of the CNN was higher compared with manual ultrasound characteristics, for which the AUCs of the crown-rump length combined with fetal heart rate was 0.687 (95%CI, 0.587–0.775).

Conclusions

The CNN model showed high accuracy for predicting miscarriage through the analysis of early pregnancy ultrasound images and achieved better performance than that of manual measurement.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04936-0.

The effect of endometrial thickness and pattern on the success of frozen embryo transfer cycles and gestational age accuracy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between endometrial thickness measured before embryo transfer, and pregnancy outcomes in frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed outcomes of all consecutive FET cycles, from January 2012 to August 2018. Based on ROC analysis for endometrial thickness, we found 8 mm was a reliable cutoff point to predict pregnancy prior to embryo transfer. Accordingly, the cycles were divided into Group A: cycles with endometrial thickness ≤ 8 mm and Group B: > 8 mm.

RESULTS

Group A included 485 FET cycles and group B included 626 cycles. Compared with group A, Group B had significantly higher chemical and clinical pregnancy rates (30.3 vs. 24.6%; p = .046, and 24.0 vs. 18.6%; p = .036), respectively. In multivariate analysis, endometrial thickness and the protocols used were the only parameters influencing the chance to achieve pregnancy, with odds ratio 1.54 (95%CI 1.07-2.22, p = .019) for the endometrium and odds ratio 1.95 (95%CI 1.31-2.9; p = .001) to the protocol used. Endometrial thickness might predict crown-rump length (CRL) discordancy with odds ratio 4.61 (p = .001; 95% CI 1.42-14.92). Compared with group B, Group A had more cases of overt discordancy (13.3 vs. 4%; p = .016).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients undergoing FET cycles, endometrial thickness and treatment protocol may predict the chemical and clinical pregnancy rates, as well as CRL discordancy.

SUMMARY

Endometrial thickness and preparation improved pregnancy rate in FET cycles and significantly greater crown-rump length discordancy was observed with thinner endometria.

Prediction of pregnancy loss by early first trimester ultrasound characteristics

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy loss prediction based on routinely measured ultrasound characteristics is generally aimed toward distinguishing nonviability. Physicians also use ultrasound indicators for patient counseling, and in some cases to decide upon the frequency of follow-up sonograms. To improve clinical utility, allocation of cut-points should be based on clinical data for multiple sonographic characteristics, be specific to gestational week, and be determined by methods that optimize prediction.

OBJECTIVES

To identify routinely measured features of the early first trimester ultrasound and the gestational age-specific cut-points that are most predictive of pregnancy loss.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of 617 pregnant women enrolled in the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction (EAGeR) trial; all women had 1-2 previous pregnancy losses and no documented infertility. Each participant had a single ultrasound with a detectable fetal heartbeat between 6 weeks 0 days and 8 weeks 6 days. Cut-points for low fetal heart rate and small crown-rump length were separately defined for gestational weeks 6, 7, and 8 to optimize prediction. Identity and log-binomial regression models were used to estimate absolute and relative risks, respectively, and 95% confidence intervals between jointly categorized low fetal heart rate, small crown-rump length, and clinical pregnancy loss. Adjusted models accounted for gestational age at ultrasound in weeks. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation.

RESULTS

A total of 64 women experienced a clinical pregnancy loss following the first ultrasound (10.4%), 7 were lost to follow-up (1.1%), and 546 women (88.5%) had a live birth. Low fetal heart rate and small crown-rump length (≤122, 123, and 158 bpm; ≤6.0, 8.5, and 10.9 mm for gestational weeks 6, 7, and 8, respectively) were independent predictors of clinical pregnancy loss, with greatest risks observed for pregnancies having both characteristics (relative risk, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.91). The combination of low fetal heart rate and small crown-rump length was linked to a 16% (95% confidence interval, 9.1-23%) adjusted absolute increase in risk of subsequent loss, from 5.0% (95% confidence interval, 1.5-8.5%) to 21% (95% confidence interval, 15-27%). Abnormal yolk sac diameter or the presence of a subchorionic hemmhorage did not improve prediction of clinical pregnancy loss.

CONCLUSION

Identified cut-points can be used by physicians for patient counseling, and in some cases to decide upon the frequency of follow-up sonograms. The specified criteria should not be used to diagnose nonviability.

Pregnancy and perinatal outcomes of first-trimester crown-rump length discordant IVF dichorionic twin pregnancies - a retrospective cohort study

RESEARCH QUESTION

This study aimed to evaluate the association between discordance in crown-rump length (CRL) and adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in dichorionic twin pregnancies.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of dichorionic twin pregnancies after IVF that showed two live fetuses at the first ultrasound scan between 6 ⁺⁵ and 8 weeks gestational age from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2016. Study groups were defined by the presence or absence of 20% or more discordance in CRL. The primary outcomes were early fetal loss of one or both fetuses before 12 weeks and birthweight discordance. Secondary outcomes included fetal anomalies, fetal loss between 12 and 28 weeks, stillbirth, small for gestational age (SGA) at birth, low birthweight (LBW), very low birthweight (VLBW), admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and preterm delivery (PTD).

RESULTS

CRL-discordant twin pregnancies were more likely to end in the loss of one fetus before 12 weeks' gestation (odds ratio [OR] 15.877, 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.495-24.019). Discordant twin pregnancies with twin deliveries had a significantly higher risk of birthweight discordance (OR 1.943, 95% CI 1.032-3.989). There was no significant difference in perinatal outcomes including fetal anomalies, PTD, LBW, VLBW, SGA, neonatal death and admission to NICU between singleton or twin deliveries.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordant twin pregnancies were at increased risk of one fetal loss prior to 12 weeks' gestation. Except for birthweight discordance, there was no significant difference between CRL discordance and other adverse perinatal outcomes.

First-trimester fetal growth restriction and the occurrence of miscarriage in rural Bangladesh: A prospective cohort study

Fetal growth restriction in early pregnancy increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcome, which has a significant social and psychological impact on women. There is limited information related to community-based study to evaluate early indicators related to miscarriage. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between fetal growth restriction, measured by ultrasound crown-rump length (CRL), and subsequent occurrence of miscarriage in pregnant women in rural Bangladesh. The study was conducted within the Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions Trial in Matlab (MINIMat study), Bangladesh. A total of 4436 pregnant women were enrolled in the study when they were at less than 14 gestational weeks. The expected CRL was determined based on an established growth curve of gestational age and CRL, and deviation from this curve of CRL was expressed as a z-score. After identifying related covariates, the multiple Poisson regression model was used to determine the independent contribution from the CRL to miscarriage. A total of 3058 singleton pregnant women were included in analyses, with 92 miscarriages and 2966 continued pregnancies. The occurrence of miscarriages was significantly higher in the smaller categories of CRL z-score after adjustments for maternal age, parity, early pregnancy BMI, gestational age at CRL measurement and socioeconomic status (adjusted relative risk [95% confidence interval]: 1.03 [1.02-1.05] for less than -2 z-score). In a rural Bangladesh population, smaller than expected CRL for the gestational age was related to subsequent miscarriage. Ultrasound biometry information together with careful clinical assessment should provide much needed attention and care for pregnant women.

Embryonic health: new insights, mHealth and personalised patient care

The worldwide epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCD), including obesity, is a burden to which poor lifestyles contribute significantly. Events in early life may enhance susceptibility to NCD, with transmission into succeeding generations. This may also explain, in part, why interventions in adulthood are less effective to reduce NCD risk. New insights reveal that the early embryo, in particular, is extremely sensitive to signals from gametes, trophoblastic tissue and periconception maternal lifestyles. Embryonic size and growth as determinants of embryonic health seem to impact future health. A relatively small embryo for gestational age is associated with pregnancy complications, as well as with the risk of early features of NCD in childhood. Although personal lifestyles are modifiable, they are extremely difficult to change. Therefore, adopting a life course approach from the periconception period onwards and integrated into patient care with short-term reproductive health benefits may have important implications for future prevention of NCD. The current reproductive population is used to Internet and social media. Therefore, they can be reached via mobile phone (mHealth) platforms that provide personalised lifestyle (pre)pregnancy programs. This will offer opportunities and possibly great benefits for the health of current and succeeding generations.

First-Trimester Crown-Rump Length and Embryonic Volume of Fetuses with Structural Congenital Abnormalities Measured in Virtual Reality: An Observational Study

Background. With the introduction of three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound it has become possible to measure volumes. The relative increase in embryonic volume (EV) is much larger than that of the crown-rump length (CRL) over the same time period. We examined whether EV is a better parameter to determine growth restriction in fetuses with structural congenital abnormalities. Study Design, Subjects, and Outcome Measures. CRL and EV were measured using a Virtual Reality (VR) system in prospectively collected 3D ultrasound volumes of 56 fetuses diagnosed with structural congenital abnormalities in the first trimester of pregnancy (gestational age 7⁺⁵ to 14⁺⁵ weeks). Measured CRL and EV were converted to z-scores and to percentages of the expected mean using previously published reference curves of euploid fetuses. The one-sample t-test was performed to test significance. Results. The EV was smaller than expected for GA in fetuses with structural congenital abnormalities (−35%  p < 0.001, z-score −1.44  p < 0.001), whereas CRL was not (−6.43%  p = 0.118, z-score −0.43  p = 0.605). Conclusions. CRL is a less reliable parameter to determine growth restriction in fetuses with structural congenital abnormalities as compared with EV. By measuring EV, growth restriction in first-trimester fetuses with structural congenital abnormalities becomes more evident and enables an earlier detection of these cases.