Brain MRI Predicts Worsening Multiple Sclerosis Disability over 5 Years in the SUMMIT Study

MRI features and disability in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to investigate the correlation between disability in patients with Multiple sclerosis (MS) measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) features to provide reliable results on which characteristics in the MRI can predict disability and prognosis of the disease.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed using three databases including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. The selected peer-reviewed studies must report a correlation between EDSS scores and MRI features. The correlation coefficients of included studies were converted to the Fisher's z scale, and the results were pooled.

RESULTS

Overall, 105 studies A total of 16,613 patients with MS entered our study. We found no significant correlation between total brain volume and EDSS assessment (95 % CI: -0.37 to 0.08; z-score: -0.15). We examined the potential correlation between the volume of T1 and T2 lesions and the level of disability. A positive significant correlation was found (95 % CI: 0.19 to 0.43; z-score: 0.31), (95 % CI: 0.17 to 0.33; z-score: 0.25). We observed a significant correlation between white matter volume and EDSS score in patients with MS (95 % CI: -0.37 to -0.03; z-score: -0.21). Moreover, there was a significant negative correlation between gray matter volume and disability (95 % CI: -0.025 to -0.07; z-score: -0.16).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this systematic review and meta-analysis revealed that disability in patients with MS is linked to extensive changes in different brain regions, encompassing gray and white matter, as well as T1 and T2 weighted MRI lesions.

Early neurofilament light and glial fibrillary acidic protein levels improve predictive models of multiple sclerosis outcomes

BACKGROUND

Early risk-stratification in multiple sclerosis (MS) may impact treatment decisions. Current predictive models have identified that clinical and imaging characteristics of aggressive disease are associated with worse long-term outcomes. Serum biomarkers, neurofilament (sNfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP), reflect subclinical disease activity through separate pathological processes and may contribute to predictive models of clinical and MRI outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB study), where patients with multiple sclerosis are seen every 6 months and undergo Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) assessment, have annual brain MRI scans where volumetric analysis is conducted to calculate T2-lesion volume (T2LV) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), and donate a yearly blood sample for subsequent analysis. We included patients with newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting MS and serum samples obtained at baseline visit and 1-year follow-up (both within 3 years of onset), and were assessed at 10-year follow-up. We measured sNfL and sGFAP by single molecule array at baseline visit and at 1-year follow-up. A predictive clinical model was developed using age, sex, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), pyramidal signs, relapse rate, and spinal cord lesions at first visit. The main outcome was odds of developing of secondary progressive (SP)MS at year 10. Secondary outcomes included 10-year EDSS, brain T2LV and BPF. We compared the goodness-of-fit of the predictive clinical model with and without sNfL and sGFAP at baseline and 1-year follow-up, for each outcome by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or R-squared.

RESULTS

A total 144 patients with median MS onset at age 37.4 years (interquartile range: 29.4-45.4), 64% female, were included. SPMS developed in 25 (17.4%) patients. The AUC for the predictive clinical model without biomarker data was 0.73, which improved to 0.77 when both sNfL and sGFAP were included in the model (P = 0.021). In this model, higher baseline sGFAP associated with developing SPMS (OR=3.3 [95%CI:1.1,10.6], P = 0.04). Adding 1-year follow-up biomarker levels further improved the model fit (AUC = 0.79) but this change was not statistically significant (P = 0.15). Adding baseline biomarker data also improved the R-squared of clinical models for 10-year EDSS from 0.24 to 0.28 (P = 0.032), while additional 1-year follow-up levels did not. Baseline sGFAP was associated with 10-year EDSS (ß=0.58 [95%CI:0.00,1.16], P = 0.05). For MRI outcomes, baseline biomarker levels improved R-squared for T2LV from 0.12 to 0.27 (P<0.001), and BPF from 0.15 to 0.20 (P = 0.042). Adding 1-year follow-up biomarker data further improved T2LV to 0.33 (P = 0.0065) and BPF to 0.23 (P = 0.048). Baseline sNfL was associated with T2LV (ß=0.34 [95%CI:0.21,0.48], P<0.001) and 1-year follow-up sNfL with BPF (ß=-2.53% [95%CI:-4.18,-0.89], P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Early biomarker levels modestly improve predictive models containing clinical and MRI variables. Worse clinical outcomes, SPMS and EDSS, are associated with higher sGFAP levels and worse MRI outcomes, T2LV and BPF, are associated with higher sNfL levels. Prospective study implementing these predictive models into clinical practice are needed to determine if early biomarker levels meaningfully impact clinical practice.

Polygenic risk score association with multiple sclerosis susceptibility and phenotype in Europeans

Polygenic inheritance plays a pivotal role in driving multiple sclerosis susceptibility, an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the CNS. We developed polygenic risk scores (PRS) of multiple sclerosis and assessed associations with both disease status and severity in cohorts of European descent. The largest genome-wide association dataset for multiple sclerosis to date (n = 41 505) was leveraged to generate PRS scores, serving as an informative susceptibility marker, tested in two independent datasets, UK Biobank [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.74, P = 6.41 × 10-146] and Kaiser Permanente in Northern California (KPNC, AUC = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.76-0.82, P = 1.5 × 10-53). Individuals within the top 10% of PRS were at higher than 5-fold increased risk in UK Biobank (95% CI: 4.7-6, P = 2.8 × 10-45) and 15-fold higher risk in KPNC (95% CI: 10.4-24, P = 3.7 × 10-11), relative to the median decile. The cumulative absolute risk of developing multiple sclerosis from age 20 onwards was significantly higher in genetically predisposed individuals according to PRS. Furthermore, inclusion of PRS in clinical risk models increased the risk discrimination by 13% to 26% over models based only on conventional risk factors in UK Biobank and KPNC, respectively. Stratifying disease risk by gene sets representative of curated cellular signalling cascades, nominated promising genetic candidate programmes for functional characterization. These pathways include inflammatory signalling mediation, response to viral infection, oxidative damage, RNA polymerase transcription, and epigenetic regulation of gene expression to be among significant contributors to multiple sclerosis susceptibility. This study also indicates that PRS is a useful measure for estimating susceptibility within related individuals in multicase families. We show a significant association of genetic predisposition with thalamic atrophy within 10 years of disease progression in the UCSF-EPIC cohort (P < 0.001), consistent with a partial overlap between the genetics of susceptibility and end-organ tissue injury. Mendelian randomization analysis suggested an effect of multiple sclerosis susceptibility on thalamic volume, which was further indicated to be through horizontal pleiotropy rather than a causal effect. In summary, this study indicates important, replicable associations of PRS with enhanced risk assessment and radiographic outcomes of tissue injury, potentially informing targeted screening and prevention strategies.

Younger age at multiple sclerosis onset is associated with worse outcomes at age 50

OBJECTIVE

Older age at multiple sclerosis (MS) onset has been associated with worse 10-year outcomes. However, disease duration often exceeds 10 years and age-related comorbidities may also contribute to disability. We investigated patients with>10 years disease duration to determine how age at MS onset is associated with clinical, MRI and occupational outcomes at age 50.

METHODS

We included patients enrolled in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital with disease duration>10 years. Outcomes at age 50 included the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), development of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), brain T2-lesion volume (T2LV) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), and occupational status. We assessed how onset age was independently associated with each outcome when adjusting for the date of visit closest to age 50, sex, time to first treatment, number of treatments by age 50 and exposure to high-efficacy treatments by age 50.

RESULTS

We included 661 patients with median onset at 31.4 years. The outcomes at age 50 were worse the younger first symptoms developed: for every 5 years earlier, the EDSS was 0.22 points worse (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.40; p=0.015), odds of SPMS 1.33 times higher (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.64; p=0.008), T2LV 1.86 mL higher (95% CI: 1.02 to 2.70; p<0.001), BPF 0.97% worse (95% CI: 0.52 to 1.42; p<0.001) and odds of unemployment from MS 1.24 times higher (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.53; p=0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

All outcomes at age 50 were worse in patients with younger age at onset. Decisions to provide high-efficacy treatments should consider younger age at onset, equating to a longer expected disease duration, as a poor prognostic factor.

"Stable" vs. "silent progressive multiple sclerosis": a real-world retrospective clinical imaging Brazilian study

BACKGROUND

Clinical and imaging are required to characterize activity and progression in MS. The parameters for activity are well defined but not those for progression. The ideal aim for long-term treatment is that neither clinical nor imaging signs of disease should be present, and also no brain atrophy.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a comparative clinical-imaging study focusing on MRI brain volumetry.

METHODS

174 consecutive relapsing-remitting MS patients (McDonald 2001) were studied, focusing on activity and progression. Annual clinical evaluations (relapse rate and EDSS) and MRI data, along with the annualized evolution of the corpus callosum index (CCI), were compared.

RESULTS

Out of 174 patients, 148 were considered clinically "stable" based on EDSS. However, 33 (22.2%) out of this group showed annualized reductions in CCI of more than 0.5%, which was the cutoff for defining significant brain atrophy.

CONCLUSIONS

Among apparently "stable" relapsing-remitting MS patients, 1/5 showed significant brain atrophy over a follow-up period of at least 7 years. We consider it reasonable to suggest that MRI volume sequences should be included in follow-up protocols, so as to provide information on the real treatment response status.

Diffusely abnormal white matter in multiple sclerosis

MRI enables detailed in vivo depiction of multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology. Localized areas of MS damage, commonly referred to as lesions, or plaques, have been a focus of clinical and research MRI studies for over four decades. A nonplaque MRI abnormality which is present in at least 25% of MS patients but has received far less attention is diffusely abnormal white matter (DAWM). DAWM has poorly defined boundaries and a signal intensity that is between normal-appearing white matter and classic lesions on proton density and T₂ -weighted images. All clinical phenotypes of MS demonstrate DAWM, including clinically isolated syndrome, where DAWM is associated with higher lesion volume, reduced brain volume, and earlier conversion to MS. Advanced MRI metric abnormalities in DAWM tend to be greater than those in NAWM, but not as severe as focal lesions, with myelin, axons, and water-related changes commonly reported. Histological studies demonstrate a primary lipid abnormality in DAWM, with some axonal damage and lesser involvement of myelin proteins. This review provides an overview of DAWM identification, summarizes in vivo and postmortem observations, and comments on potential pathophysiological mechanisms, which may underlie DAWM in MS. Given the prevalence and potential clinical impact of DAWM, the number of imaging studies focusing on DAWM is insufficient. Characterization of DAWM significance and microstructure would benefit from larger longitudinal and additional quantitative imaging efforts. Revisiting data from previous studies that included proton density and T₂ imaging would enable retrospective DAWM identification and analysis.

Machine learning classifier to identify clinical and radiological features relevant to disability progression in multiple sclerosis

Objectives

To evaluate the accuracy of a data-driven approach, such as machine learning classification, in predicting disability progression in MS.

Methods

We analyzed structural brain images of 163 subjects diagnosed with MS acquired at two different sites. Participants were followed up for 2–6 years, with disability progression defined according to the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) increment at follow-up. T2-weighted lesion load (T2LL), thalamic and cerebellar gray matter (GM) volumes, fractional anisotropy of the normal appearing white matter were calculated at baseline and included in supervised machine learning classifiers. Age, sex, phenotype, EDSS at baseline, therapy and time to follow-up period were also included. Classes were labeled as stable or progressed disability. Participants were randomly chosen from both sites to build a sample including 50% patients showing disability progression and 50% patients being stable. One-thousand machine learning classifiers were applied to the resulting sample, and after testing for overfitting, classifier confusion matrix, relative metrics and feature importance were evaluated.

Results

At follow-up, 36% of participants showed disability progression. The classifier with the highest resulting metrics had accuracy of 0.79, area under the true positive versus false positive rates curve of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.90 and specificity of 0.71. T2LL, thalamic volume, disability at baseline and administered therapy were identified as important features in predicting disability progression. Classifiers built on radiological features had higher accuracy than those built on clinical features.

Conclusions

Disability progression in MS may be predicted via machine learning classifiers, mostly evaluating neuroradiological features.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00415-021-10605-7.

Interpretation of Brain Volume Increase in Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A high variability of brain MRI volume change measurement renders challenging its interpretation in multiple sclerosis (MS). Occurrence and clinical relevance of observed apparent brain volume increase (BVI) in MS patients have not been investigated yet. The objective was to quantify the prevalence and factors associated with BVI.

METHODS

We examined 366 MS patients (2,317 scans) and 44 controls (132 scans). Volumetric analysis of brain volume changes was performed by SIENA and ScanView. BVI was defined as brain volume change >0%. We compared characteristics of patients with and without BVI.

RESULTS

BVI was found in 26.3% (from 1,951) longitudinal scans (SIENA). If BVI occurred, a probability that BVI will be repeated consecutively more than or equal to two times was 15.9%. The repeated BVI was associated with clinical disease activity in 50% of cases. BVI was associated with shorter time and lower T2 lesion volume increase between two MRI scans, and higher normalized brain volume (all P < .0001). A proportion of scans with BVI was higher when analyzed by ScanView (35.3%) and in controls (36.4% by SIENA).

CONCLUSIONS

BVI occurs in a great proportion of MR scans over short-term follow-up and is not associated with disease stabilization. Although BVI can be caused by several factors, the results indicate that measurement error may contribute to BVI in the majority of cases. Clinicians should be aware of the frequent occurrence of apparent BVI, interpret brain volume changes in MS patients with great caution, and use methods with precise quantification of brain volume changes.

Disability Improvement Is Associated with Less Brain Atrophy Development in Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It is unknown whether deceleration of brain atrophy is associated with disability improvement in patients with MS. Our aim was to investigate whether patients with MS with disability improvement develop less brain atrophy compared with those who progress in disability or remain stable.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We followed 980 patients with MS for a mean of 4.8 ± 2.4 years. Subjects were divided into 3 groups: progress in disability (n = 241, 24.6%), disability improvement (n = 101, 10.3%), and stable (n = 638, 65.1%) at follow-up. Disability improvement and progress in disability were defined on the basis of the Expanded Disability Status Scale score change using standardized guidelines. Stable was defined as nonoccurrence of progress in disability or disability improvement. Normalized whole-brain volume was calculated using SIENAX on 3D T1WI, whereas the lateral ventricle was measured using NeuroSTREAM on 2D-T2-FLAIR images. The percentage brain volume change and percentage lateral ventricle volume change were calculated using SIENA and NeuroSTREAM, respectively. Differences among groups were investigated using ANCOVA, adjusted for age at first MR imaging, race, T2 lesion volume, and corresponding baseline structural volume and the Expanded Disability Status Scale.

RESULTS

At first MR imaging, there were no differences among progress in disability, disability improvement, and the stable groups in whole-brain volume (P = .71) or lateral ventricle volume (P = .74). During follow-up, patients with disability improvement had the lowest annualized percentage lateral ventricle volume change (1.6% ± 2.7%) followed by patients who were stable (2.1% ± 3.7%) and had progress in disability (4.1% ± 5.5%), respectively (P < .001). The annualized percentage brain volume change values were -0.7% ± 0.7% for disability improvement, -0.8% ± 0.7% for stable, and -1.1% ± 1.1% for progress in disability (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MS who improve in their clinical disability develop less brain atrophy across time compared with those who progress.