Predicting antimicrobial susceptibility from the bacterial genome: A new paradigm for one health resistance monitoring

A one health approach for monitoring antimicrobial resistance: developing a national freshwater pilot effort

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a world-wide public health threat that is projected to lead to 10 million annual deaths globally by 2050. The AMR public health issue has led to the development of action plans to combat AMR, including improved antimicrobial stewardship, development of new antimicrobials, and advanced monitoring. The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) led by the United States (U.S) Food and Drug Administration along with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and U.S. Department of Agriculture has monitored antimicrobial resistant bacteria in retail meats, humans, and food animals since the mid 1990's. NARMS is currently exploring an integrated One Health monitoring model recognizing that human, animal, plant, and environmental systems are linked to public health. Since 2020, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has led an interagency NARMS environmental working group (EWG) to implement a surface water AMR monitoring program (SWAM) at watershed and national scales. The NARMS EWG divided the development of the environmental monitoring effort into five areas: (i) defining objectives and questions, (ii) designing study/sampling design, (iii) selecting AMR indicators, (iv) establishing analytical methods, and (v) developing data management/analytics/metadata plans. For each of these areas, the consensus among the scientific community and literature was reviewed and carefully considered prior to the development of this environmental monitoring program. The data produced from the SWAM effort will help develop robust surface water monitoring programs with the goal of assessing public health risks associated with AMR pathogens in surface water (e.g., recreational water exposures), provide a comprehensive picture of how resistant strains are related spatially and temporally within a watershed, and help assess how anthropogenic drivers and intervention strategies impact the transmission of AMR within human, animal, and environmental systems.

Predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli using conserved genes

Having the ability to predict the protein-encoding gene content of an incomplete genome or metagenome-assembled genome is important for a variety of bioinformatic tasks. In this study, as a proof of concept, we built machine learning classifiers for predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli genomes using only the nucleotide k-mers from a set of 100 conserved genes as features. Protein families were used to define orthologs, and a single classifier was built for predicting the presence or absence of each protein family occurring in 10%-90% of all E. coli genomes. The resulting set of 3,259 extreme gradient boosting classifiers had a per-genome average macro F1 score of 0.944 [0.943-0.945, 95% CI]. We show that the F1 scores are stable across multi-locus sequence types and that the trend can be recapitulated by sampling a smaller number of core genes or diverse input genomes. Surprisingly, the presence or absence of poorly annotated proteins, including "hypothetical proteins" was accurately predicted (F1 = 0.902 [0.898-0.906, 95% CI]). Models for proteins with horizontal gene transfer-related functions had slightly lower F1 scores but were still accurate (F1s = 0.895, 0.872, 0.824, and 0.841 for transposon, phage, plasmid, and antimicrobial resistance-related functions, respectively). Finally, using a holdout set of 419 diverse E. coli genomes that were isolated from freshwater environmental sources, we observed an average per-genome F1 score of 0.880 [0.876-0.883, 95% CI], demonstrating the extensibility of the models. Overall, this study provides a framework for predicting variable gene content using a limited amount of input sequence data. IMPORTANCE Having the ability to predict the protein-encoding gene content of a genome is important for assessing genome quality, binning genomes from shotgun metagenomic assemblies, and assessing risk due to the presence of antimicrobial resistance and other virulence genes. In this study, we built a set of binary classifiers for predicting the presence or absence of variable genes occurring in 10%-90% of all publicly available E. coli genomes. Overall, the results show that a large portion of the E. coli variable gene content can be predicted with high accuracy, including genes with functions relating to horizontal gene transfer. This study offers a strategy for predicting gene content using limited input sequence data.

An accurate and interpretable model for antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic Escherichia coli from livestock and companion animal species

Understanding the microbial genomic contributors to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is essential for early detection of emerging AMR infections, a pressing global health threat in human and veterinary medicine. Here we used whole genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility test data from 980 disease causing Escherichia coli isolated from companion and farm animals to model AMR genotypes and phenotypes for 24 antibiotics. We determined the strength of genotype-to-phenotype relationships for 197 AMR genes with elastic net logistic regression. Model predictors were designed to evaluate different potential modes of AMR genotype translation into resistance phenotypes. Our results show a model that considers the presence of individual AMR genes and total number of AMR genes present from a set of genes known to confer resistance was able to accurately predict isolate resistance on average (mean F1 score = 98.0%, SD = 2.3%, mean accuracy = 98.2%, SD = 2.7%). However, fitted models sometimes varied for antibiotics in the same class and for the same antibiotic across animal hosts, suggesting heterogeneity in the genetic determinants of AMR resistance. We conclude that an interpretable AMR prediction model can be used to accurately predict resistance phenotypes across multiple host species and reveal testable hypotheses about how the mechanism of resistance may vary across antibiotics within the same class and across animal hosts for the same antibiotic.

Building an International One Health Strain Level Database to Characterise the Epidemiology of AMR Threats: ESBL—AmpC Producing E. coli as An Example—Challenges and Perspectives

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the top public health threats nowadays. Among the most important AMR pathogens, Escherichia coli resistant to extended spectrum cephalosporins (ESC-EC) is a perfect example of the One Health problem due to its global distribution in animal, human, and environmental sources and its resistant phenotype, derived from the carriage of plasmid-borne extended-spectrum and AmpC β-lactamases, which limits the choice of effective antimicrobial therapies. The epidemiology of ESC-EC infection is complex as a result of the multiple possible sources involved in its transmission, and its study would require databases ideally comprising information from animal (livestock, companion, wildlife), human, and environmental sources. Here, we present the steps taken to assemble a database with phenotypic and genetic information on 10,763 ESC-EC isolates retrieved from multiple sources provided by 13 partners located in eight European countries, in the frame of the DiSCoVeR Joint Research project funded by the One Health European Joint Programme (OH-EJP), along with its strengths and limitations. This database represents a first step to help in the assessment of different geographical and temporal trends and transmission dynamics in animals and humans. The work performed highlights aspects that should be considered in future international efforts, such as the one presented here.

Recent Advances in Rapid Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing

Background

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) is classically performed using growth-based techniques that essentially require viable bacterial matter to become visible to the naked eye or a sophisticated densitometer.

Content

Technologies based on the measurement of bacterial density in suspension have evolved marginally in accuracy and rapidity over the 20th century, but assays expanded for new combinations of bacteria and antimicrobials have been automated, and made amenable to high-throughput turn-around. Over the past 25 years, elevated AST rapidity has been provided by nucleic acid-mediated amplification technologies, proteomic and other “omic” methodologies, and the use of next-generation sequencing. In rare cases, AST at the level of single-cell visualization was developed. This has not yet led to major changes in routine high-throughput clinical microbiological detection of antimicrobial resistance.

Summary

We here present a review of the new generation of methods and describe what is still urgently needed for their implementation in day-to-day management of the treatment of infectious diseases.

Antibiotic Resistance: One Health One World Outlook

Antibiotic resistance (ABR) is a growing public health concern worldwide, and it is now regarded as a critical One Health issue. One Health’s interconnected domains contribute to the emergence, evolution, and spread of antibiotic-resistant microorganisms on a local and global scale, which is a significant risk factor for global health. The persistence and spread of resistant microbial species, and the association of determinants at the human-animal-environment interface can alter microbial genomes, resulting in resistant superbugs in various niches. ABR is motivated by a well-established link between three domains: human, animal, and environmental health. As a result, addressing ABR through the One Health approach makes sense. Several countries have implemented national action plans based on the One Health approach to combat antibiotic-resistant microbes, following the Tripartite’s Commitment Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)-World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)-World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The ABR has been identified as a global health concern, and efforts are being made to mitigate this global health threat. To summarize, global interdisciplinary and unified approaches based on One Health principles are required to limit the ABR dissemination cycle, raise awareness and education about antibiotic use, and promote policy, advocacy, and antimicrobial stewardship.

A genomic data resource for predicting antimicrobial resistance from laboratory-derived antimicrobial susceptibility phenotypes

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health threat that affects millions of people each year. Funding agencies worldwide and the global research community have expended considerable capital and effort tracking the evolution and spread of AMR by isolating and sequencing bacterial strains and performing antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). For the last several years, we have been capturing these efforts by curating data from the literature and data resources and building a set of assembled bacterial genome sequences that are paired with laboratory-derived AST data. This collection currently contains AST data for over 67 000 genomes encompassing approximately 40 genera and over 100 species. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of this collection, highlighting areas where sampling is comparatively deep or shallow, and showing areas where attention is needed from the research community to improve sampling and tracking efforts. In addition to using the data to track the evolution and spread of AMR, it also serves as a useful starting point for building machine learning models for predicting AMR phenotypes. We demonstrate this by describing two machine learning models that are built from the entire dataset to show where the predictive power is comparatively high or low. This AMR metadata collection is freely available and maintained on the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Center (BV-BRC) FTP site ftp://ftp.bvbrc.org/RELEASE_NOTES/PATRIC_genomes_AMR.txt.

Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Using Partial Genome Alignments

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an important global health threat that impacts millions of people worldwide each year. Developing methods that can detect and predict AMR phenotypes can help to mitigate the spread of AMR by informing clinical decision making and appropriate mitigation strategies. Many bioinformatic methods have been developed for predicting AMR phenotypes from whole-genome sequences and AMR genes, but recent studies have indicated that predictions can be made from incomplete genome sequence data. In order to more systematically understand this, we built random forest-based machine learning classifiers for predicting susceptible and resistant phenotypes for Klebsiella pneumoniae (1,640 strains), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2,497 strains), and Salmonella enterica (1,981 strains). We started by building models from alignments that were based on a reference chromosome for each species. We then subsampled each chromosomal alignment and built models for the resulting subalignments, finding that very small regions, representing approximately 0.1 to 0.2% of the chromosome, are predictive. In K. pneumoniae, M. tuberculosis, and S. enterica, the subalignments are able to predict multiple AMR phenotypes with at least 70% accuracy, even though most do not encode an AMR-related function. We used these models to identify regions of the chromosome with high and low predictive signals. Finally, subalignments that retain high accuracy across larger phylogenetic distances were examined in greater detail, revealing genes and intergenic regions with potential links to AMR, virulence, transport, and survival under stress conditions.

IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial resistance causes thousands of deaths annually worldwide. Understanding the regions of the genome that are involved in antimicrobial resistance is important for developing mitigation strategies and preventing transmission. Machine learning models are capable of predicting antimicrobial resistance phenotypes from bacterial genome sequence data by identifying resistance genes, mutations, and other correlated features. They are also capable of implicating regions of the genome that have not been previously characterized as being involved in resistance. In this study, we generated global chromosomal alignments for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Salmonella enterica and systematically searched them for small conserved regions of the genome that enable the prediction of antimicrobial resistance phenotypes. In addition to known antimicrobial resistance genes, this analysis identified genes involved in virulence and transport functions, as well as many genes with no previous implication in antimicrobial resistance.