Liver stiffness-based score in hepatoma risk assessment for chronic hepatitis C patients after successful antiviral therapy

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

Comparing Predictability of Non-invasive Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tools including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) or FIB-4, assessed before or after direct acting antivirals (DAA), have been suggested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

This study aims to compare predictability of HCC by these methods at different time points, to validate the HCC surveillance suggestion by guidelines, and to propose personalized strategy.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C whose LSM and FIB-4 were available at pretherapy and after sustained virological response (SVR) were enrolled. Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) was defined as pretherapy LSM ≥ 10 kPa or FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 or ultrasound signs of cirrhosis plus platelet count < 150,000/μL. The predictabilities were compared by area under ROC. The cumulative HCC incidences were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Among 466 ACLD patients, 40 patients developed HCC during a follow-up duration of 26.8 months. Comparable predictive performances for HCC between LSM and FIB-4 at pretherapy and SVR were noted. By guidelines suggestion using pretherapy LSM = 10 kPa (advanced fibrosis) and 13 kPa (cirrhosis) for risk stratification, the annual HCC incidences of those with LSM of < 10, 10-12.9 and ≥ 13 kPa were 1.1, 3.6, and 5.0%, respectively. Combination of baseline LSM < 12 kPa and SVR FIB-4 < 3.7 could further stratify relatively low risk of HCC in ACLD patients of annal incidence of 1.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLD patients who met advanced fibrosis but not cirrhosis by guidelines' cut-offs still posed high risk of HCC. Baseline LSM with SVR FIB-4 can be applied to stratify low, intermediate, and high risk of HCC for personalizing surveillance strategies after SVR.

Combined ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography predict hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication

AIM

Elastography is an established, noninvasive method for measuring liver stiffness using to 2-D shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE) or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of combined measurement using 2D-SWE and MRE to stratify the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who achieved hepatitis C virus eradication.

METHODS

Five hundred and twenty-five patients who underwent 2D-SWE and MRE before antiviral therapy and who achieved eradication were enrolled. The optimal 2D-SWE and MRE cutoff values were determined using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting HCC development. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to adjust the cumulative incidence rate of HCC development for potential imbalances.

RESULTS

Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values of 2D-SWE and MRE for predicting HCC development were 11.7 and 4.5 kPa, respectively. The IPTW-adjusted cumulative incidence rate of HCC development in patients with both an 2D-SWE value ≥ 11.7 kPa and an MRE value ≥ 4.5 kPa had a higher hazard ratio (28.080; 95% confidence interval, 5.527-132.600; p < 0.001) than those with either an 2D-SWE value < 11.7 kPa or an MRE value < 4.5 kPa.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined measurement of 2D-SWE and MRE was very effective for identifying patients at high risk of HCC development. US-based elastography should be performed first, and if the 2D-SWE value is high, MRE should then be carried out to confirm the degree of liver stiffness.

Mac-2-binding protein glycan isomer predicts all malignancies after sustained virological response in chronic hepatitis C

Despite reports of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection after achieving sustained virological response (SVR), only few studies have demonstrated the incidence of other (non-HCC) malignancies. This study aimed to clarify the incidence, survival probability, and factors associated with malignancy, especially non-HCC malignancies, in patients with chronic HCV infection after achieving SVR. In this retrospective study, records of 3580 patients with chronic HCV infection who achieved SVR following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment were analyzed. The cumulative post-SVR incidence of non-HCC malignancies was 0.9%, 3.1%, and 6.8% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The survival probability for patients with non-HCC malignancies was 99.1%, 78.8%, and 60.2% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the rate was significantly lower than that for patients with HCC. The Cox proportional hazards regression model identified Mac-2-binding protein glycan isomer (M2BPGi) cutoff index (COI) ≥ 1.90 at baseline and ≥ 1.50 at 12 weeks following DAA treatment as significant and independent factors associated with the post-SVR incidence of non-HCC malignancies. Furthermore, patients with either M2BPGi COI ≥ 1.90 at baseline or M2BPGi COI ≥ 1.50 at SVR12 had a significantly higher risk of post-SVR incidence of non-HCC malignancies than of HCC. Conclusion: M2BPGi measurements at baseline and SVR12 may help predict the post-SVR incidence of non-HCC malignancies in patients with chronic HCV infection who achieved SVR following DAA treatment. Early identification of these patients is critical to prolong patient survival.

Prediction of post-hepatectomy liver failure and long-term prognosis after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma using liver stiffness measurement

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the main cause of perioperative death after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection. PHLF occurrence is related to both the hepatectomy volume and the degree of cirrhosis. Accurate preoperative assessment of the degree of cirrhosis may aid in reducing the incidence of PHLF. Several studies have shown that the liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is well correlated with cirrhosis. This study explored the relationship between LSM and PHLF occurrence after radical HCC resection and the effect on long-term prognosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 164 patients who underwent radical HCC resection at our center from January 2017 to January 2020. The related postoperative PHLF factors were analyzed. The LSM threshold in postoperative PHLF was calculated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Patients were grouped according to different LSM thresholds and survival analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Forty-six patients experienced PHLF, of whom 19, 21, and 6 were classified as grades A, B, and C, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that LSM was an independent risk factor for PHLF after HCC surgery (OR = 1.174, P < 0.000). LSM (OR = 1.219, P < 0.000) and intraoperative bleeding (OR = 1.001, P = 0.047) were risk factors for grade B-C PHLF. The LSM threshold that predicted PHLF occurrence was 17.9 kPa (AUC = 0.831, P < 0.000) and 24.5 kPa (AUC = 0.867, P < 0.000) for grade B-C PHLF. LSM was correlated with PHLF severity (r = 0.439, P < 0.001). The median survival times were 32 vs 26 months (P = 0.016) for patients with LSM ≤ 17.9 kPa vs those with LSM > 17.9 kPa and 28 vs 24 months (P = 0.004) for patients with LSM ≤ 24.5 kPa vs those with LSM > 24.5 kPa.

CONCLUSION

LSM is related to PHLF occurrence in patients undergoing HCC resection; a higher LSM is associated with the occurrence of more severe PHLF after surgery. In addition, LSM may aid in predicting long-term survival after liver resection in patients with HCC.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a useful tool for assessing advanced liver fibrosis, an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatitis C (HCV) eradication. This study aimed to clarify the non-invasive factors associated with HCC following sustained virological response (SVR) and to identify the low-risk group. 567 patients without history of HCC who achieved SVR at 24 weeks (SVR24) after IFN-free treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCC and the risk factors were examined using pre-treatment and SVR24 data. The median observation period was 50.2 months. Thirty cases of HCC were observed, and the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 5.9%. In multivariate analysis, significant pre-treatment factors were age ≥ 71 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.402) and LSM ≥ 9.2 kPa (HR: 6.328); SVR24 factors were age ≥ 71 years (HR: 2.689) and LSM ≥ 8.4 kPa (HR: 6.642). In cases with age < 71 years and LSM < 8.4 kPa at the time of SVR24, the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was as low as 1.1%. Both pre-treatment LSM (≥ 9.2 kPa) and SVR24 LSM (≥ 8.4 kPa) and age (≥ 71 years) are useful in predicting the risk of HCC after SVR with IFN-free treatment. Identification of low-risk individuals may improve the efficiency of follow-up.

Computed Tomography-Measured Liver Volume Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

AIM

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the significance of liver volume in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 277 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who received dynamic computed tomography (CT) during surveillance.

METHODS

Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase of CT images by using ImageJ software. Liver volume index, a ratio of the standard liver volume expected by weight and height to the measured liver volume, was calculated to adjust for normal variations. The cohort was randomly divided to derivation (n = 100) and validation sets (n = 177) for the generation of a liver volume-based Cox prediction model and validation of a liver volume-based nomogram, respectively.

RESULTS

The liver volume index was independent of weight or height, and it predicted further development of HCC (hazard ratio [HR] 16.30, 95% CI 6.70-39.62; p < 0.001). Liver cirrhosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and liver volume index were independent predictors of HCC, and nomogram-based prediction score from these three parameters identified high-risk patients at the cutoff of 110 in both derivation (p < 0.001) and validation cohort (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies the risk of developing HCC in CHC patients whose initial dynamic CT study gave negative results.

Elastography as a predictor of liver cirrhosis complications after hepatitis C virus eradication in the era of direct-acting antivirals

Chronic inflammation due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection leads to liver fibrosis and rearrangement of liver tissue, which is responsible for the development of portal hypertension (PH) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The advent of direct-acting antiviral drugs has revolutionized the natural history of HCV infection, providing an overall eradication rate of over 90%. Despite a significant decrease after sustained virological response (SVR), the rate of HCC and liver-related complications is not completely eliminated in patients with advanced liver disease. Although the reasons are still unclear, cirrhosis itself has a residual risk for the development of HCC and other PH-related complications. Ultrasound elastography is a recently developed non-invasive technique for the assessment of liver fibrosis. Following the achievement of SVR, liver stiffness (LS) usually decreases, as a consequence of reduced inflammation and, possibly, fibrosis. Recent studies emphasized the application of LS assessment in the management of patients with SVR in order to define the risk for developing the complications of chronic liver disease (functional decompensation, gastrointestinal bleeding, HCC) and to optimize long-term prognostic outcomes in clinical practice.

Evaluation of liver fibrosis using hepatic extracellular volume fraction by contrast-enhanced computed tomography before and after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection: comparison with serological liver fibrosis markers

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate time-dependent changes in hepatic extracellular volume (ECV) fraction using contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) and serological liver fibrosis markers, the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), before and after direct-acting antiviral therapy (DAA) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

41 HCV-infected patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA (SVR group) and 10 control patients (untreated or unresponsive to treatment) who underwent CECT and serum biochemical tests before or after the first examination/DAA (T1) and at intervals thereafter (T2:<6 months after T1, T3: at 6-12 months, T4: at 12-24 months, and T5:>24 months) were evaluated.

RESULTS

In the control group, ECV fractions remained relatively unchanged through the study, and significant differences in FIB-4 index comparisons and APRI comparisons were only seen between the T2 and T4 values (p = 0.046 and p = 0.028, respectively). In the SVR group, ECV fractions were significantly different between T1 and T4 and T1 and T5 (p = 0.046 and 0.022, respectively), and both FIB-4 index and APRI were significantly different between T1 and all other time points (p = 0.017 to p < 0.001 and p = 0.001 to p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

After DAA, ECV fraction decreased slowly, suggesting an improvement in hepatic fibrosis, while serological liver fibrosis markers decreased immediately, probably due to improvement in hepatic inflammation.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

ECV fraction has the potential to be a non-invasive biomarker for the assessment of liver fibrosis after direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Liver stiffness-based score at sustained virologic response predicts liver-related complications after eradication of hepatitis C virus

To determine whether liver stiffness (LS) and fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) index were useful in assessing the occurrence of liver-related complications (LRC) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) had been administered. This retrospective study enrolled CHC patients achieving sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA. A total of 697 (male/female: 294/403, mean age: 63.8 year) patients with measured LS and complete lab data at SVR were enrolled, followed, and analyzed. In a median follow-up of 21.4 months after SVR, 39 patients developed LRC including 28 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the 30-month cumulative incidence of LRC and HCC being 7.7% and 5.1%, respectively. Predictions of occurrence of LRC and HCC were 0.820 and 0.774 for LS, and 0.775 and 0.737 for Fib-4, with optimal cutoffs of LS and Fib-4 being 14.5 kPa and 2.9 for LRC prediction. In multivariate analysis, LS was associated with the occurrence of LRC (hazard ratio: 3.97, 95% confidence interval [1.866, 8.446], p < 0.001) after adjustment for Fib-4 and diabetes. A risk-score system combining LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was developed for LRC risk assessment. Patients were stratified into low- (score 0-1), intermediate- (score 2-3), and high-risk (score 4) groups with LRC cumulative incidences of 1.7%, 14.9%, and 36.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). For patients with CHC after DAA, the risk scoring system based on LS, Fib-4, and diabetes was useful to assess the risk of LRC development during follow-up; accordingly, it would be advantageous for clinicians to set up more personalized and cost-effective strategies of surveillance.

aMAP score prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and incidence-free rate after a sustained virologic response in chronic hepatitis C

AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can still occur in hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients who have achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR), which remains an important clinical issue in the direct-acting antivirals era. The current study investigated the clinical utility of the aMAP score (consisting of age, male, albumin-bilirubin, and platelets) for predicting HCC occurrence in HCV patients achieving an SVR by direct-acting antivirals.

METHODS

A total of 1113 HCV patients without HCC history, all of whom achieved an SVR, were enrolled for clinical comparisons.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma was recorded in 50 patients during a median follow-up period of 3.7 years. The aMAP score was significantly higher in the HCC occurrence group than in the HCC-free group (53 vs. 47, p < 0.001). According to risk stratification based on aMAP score, the cumulative incidence of HCC occurrence for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 0.14%, 4.49%, and 9.89%, respectively, at 1 year and 1.56%, 6.87%, and 16.17%, respectively, at 3 years (low vs. medium, low vs. high, and medium vs. high: all p < 0.01). Cox proportional hazard analysis confirmed aMAP ≥ 50 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.78, p = 0.014), age≥ 70 years (HR: 2.41, p = 0.028), ALT ≥ 17 U/L (HR: 2.14, p < 0.001), and AFP ≥ 10 ng/mL (HR: 2.89, p = 0.005) as independent risk factors of HCC occurrence. Interestingly, all but one patient (99.5%) with aMAP less than 40 was HCC-free following an SVR.

CONCLUSION

The aMAP score could have clinical utility for predicting HCC occurrence in HCV patients achieving an SVR.

Clinical and Molecular Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk becomes increasingly important with recently emerging HCC-predisposing conditions, namely non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cured hepatitis C virus infection. These etiologies are accompanied with a relatively low HCC incidence rate (~1% per year or less), while affecting a large patient population. Hepatitis B virus infection remains a major HCC risk factor, but a majority of the patients are now on antiviral therapy, which substantially lowers, but does not eliminate, HCC risk. Thus, it is critically important to identify a small subset of patients who have elevated likelihood of developing HCC, to optimize the allocation of limited HCC screening resources to those who need it most and enable cost-effective early HCC diagnosis to prolong patient survival. To date, numerous clinical-variable-based HCC risk scores have been developed for specific clinical contexts defined by liver disease etiology, severity, and other factors. In parallel, various molecular features have been reported as potential HCC risk biomarkers, utilizing both tissue and body-fluid specimens. Deep-learning-based risk modeling is an emerging strategy. Although none of them has been widely incorporated in clinical care of liver disease patients yet, some have been undergoing the process of validation and clinical development. In this review, these risk scores and biomarker candidates are overviewed, and strategic issues in their validation and clinical translation are discussed.

Viral Interference Between Dengue Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections

Both dengue virus (DENV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) belong to the Flaviviridae family and could induce hepatitis. We aimed to investigate the interference between them. In total, 515 patients confirmed with dengue fever (DF) were enrolled. Thirty-two patients (6.21%) were seropositive for anti-HCV; 12 of 32 anti-HCV-positive patients had detectable HCV-RNA at presentation of DF. The proportion of dengue hemorrhagic fever was comparable between patients with or without anti-HCV and between those with or without HCV-RNA. Eleven of 32 patients received HCV-RNA testing during a median interval of 23 months after DF, which revealed significantly increased HCV-RNA levels (5.43 ± 0.77 vs 3.09 ± 1.24 log IU/mL, follow-up vs acute-DF phase; P = .003). Four of 11 patients with baseline HCV-RNA values before DF demonstrated a nadir viremia during acute DF. We also included age-, sex-, and follow-up duration–matched HCV-monoinfected patients as controls; higher delta HCV-RNA changes were demonstrated in patients with DF than in controls during the follow-up period (2.34 ± 1.15 vs –0.27 ± 0.76 log IU/mL; P < .001). Further in vitro experiments showed that HCV nonstructural protein 5A was downregulated in Con1 HCV replicon cells infected by DENV1. These clinical and experimental findings suggested possible viral interference in DENV/HCV. However, HCV viremia did not affect the disease outcomes of DF.

JSH Guidelines for the Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection, 2019 Update; Protective Effect of Antiviral Therapy against Hepatocarcinogenesis

The Drafting Committee for Hepatitis Management Guidelines established by the Japan Society of Hepatology (JSH) drafted the first version of the clinical practice guidelines for the management of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 2012. Since then, we have been publishing updates as new drugs for hepatitis C become available and new indications for existing drugs are added. The new approval of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir prompted us to publish the seventh version of the guidelines in Japanese in March 2019. We also published the first English-language version of the JSH guidelines in 2013 and English versions of updates made to the Japanese-language guidelines in 2014 and 2016. In 2020, the committee has decided to publish a new English version, covering general information about treatment for hepatitis C, drugs used, recommended treatments for chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis, and special populations, such as patients who have renal impairment, are on dialysis, or have developed recurrence of hepatitis C after liver transplantation. Furthermore, the committee has released a separate publication covering the protective effect of antiviral therapy against hepatocarcinogenesis.

Non-invasive tests for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world and it is one of the main complications of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Even in the presence of a well-established follow-up protocol for cirrhotic patients, to date poor data are available on predictive markers for primary HCC occurrence in the setting of compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients (cACLD). The gold standard method to evaluate the prognosis of patients with cACLD, beyond liver fibrosis assessed with histology, is the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). An HVPG ≥10 mmHg has been related to an increased risk of HCC in cACLD patients. However, these methods are burdened by additional costs and risks for patients and are mostly available only in referral centers. In the last decade increasing research has focused on the evaluation of several, simple, non-invasive tests (NITs) as predictors of HCC development. We reviewed the currently available literature on biochemical and ultrasound-based scores developed for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension in predicting primary HCC. We found that the most reliable methods to assess HCC risk were the liver stiffness measurement, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index score and the fibrosis-4 index. Other promising NITs need further investigations and validation for different liver disease aetiologies.

Design and validation of risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma can develop after hepatitis C virus eradication. We developed a new hepatocellular carcinoma risk score (HCC-SVR score) based on independent predictors for chronic hepatitis C after sustained virological response.

METHODS

Between 2003 and 2016, a total of 1193 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response through antiviral therapy were included (669 for training cohort and 524 for validation cohort). The HCC-SVR score was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modelling.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 19) occurred more frequently in older, male patients and was associated with liver cirrhosis; hypertension; diabetes; lower platelet count; higher alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate, and alanine aminotransferase; lower total cholesterol; and higher fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) (all P < 0.05). FIB-4 (hazard ratio = 1.080), male gender (hazard ratio = 8.189), and higher alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio = 1.060) independently predicted hepatocellular carcinoma (all P < 0.05). HCC-SVR score successfully predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development risk [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.771, 0.857, and 0.911 at 2, 4, and 6 years, respectively]. The cumulative incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma differed significantly among groups stratified by HCC-SVR risk score (0-2 points, low; 3-7 points, intermediate; 8-9 points, high risk) (all P < 0.05 by log-rank test). HCC-SVR score was maintained in a validation cohort (n = 524) (AUC = 0.728 at 2 years, 0.737 at 4 years, and 0.809 at 6 years).

CONCLUSION

The HCC-SVR score enables risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma development at sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Management of patients with pre-therapeutic advanced liver fibrosis following HCV eradication

Patients with HCV-related bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis remain at risk of developing life-threatening complications even after achieving a sustained virological response. Although it is reduced, the risk of liver-related events in these patients justifies their inclusion in surveillance programmes dedicated to the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma and the screening for portal hypertension. Biochemical parameters or non-invasive tests might indicate the potential progression of liver injury despite viral clearance. Specific attention must be focused on the management of comorbidities, while dedicated educational programmes must be encouraged to increase compliance and commitment to surveillance. Better knowledge of the long-term evolution of these patients, who now live longer, is essential to improve risk stratification and refine screening strategies in this growing population.

Assessing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma by combining liver stiffness and the controlled attenuation parameter

AIM

Ultrasound technology can now be used for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and for evaluating the amount of hepatic fat quantitatively known as the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP). This study aimed to determine the applicable cut-off values of LSM and the CAP for primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and to investigate their clinical usefulness for assessing HCC risk in patients with chronic liver disease.

METHODS

A total of 1054 patients (88 with primary HCC and 966 without HCC) whose LSM and the CAP were measured by transient elastography with clinically evident hepatitis C virus (419 patients), hepatitis B virus (377 patients), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (258 patients) were enrolled in this study. Subsequently, a total of 966 patients who did not have HCC initially were followed, and the usefulness of the cut-off values of LSM and CAP for HCC development were evaluated.

RESULTS

In hepatitis C virus patients, the incidence of HCC development was significantly higher among those with a combination of LSM ≥8.0 kPa and CAP ≤221 dB/m than among those with other values (log-rank test 0.0239, hazard ratio 2.66, 95%CI 1.07-6.47, P = 0.0362). In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients, the incidence of HCC development was significantly higher among those with a combination of LSM ≥5.4 kPa and CAP ≤265 dB/m than among others (log-rank test 0.0040, hazard ratio 8.91, 95% CI 1.47-67.97, P = 0.0192).

CONCLUSION

In the hepatitis C virus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease groups, a combination of LSM and the CAP cut-off values would be useful for screening to identify the high-risk group for primary HCC development.

Follow-Up Liver Stiffness Measurements after Liver Resection Influence Oncologic Outcomes of Hepatitis-B-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Liver Cirrhosis

The severity of liver fibrosis can be noninvasively evaluated by measuring liver stiffness (LS) using transient elastography. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of achieving low liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in patients with cirrhosis confirmed from the resected liver due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 184 patients that received curative surgery for HCC related to the hepatitis B virus at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0–A, and had a METAVIR fibrosis score of 4 were investigated. LSM significantly decreased after antiviral therapy during follow-up (p = 0.001), and achieving LSM ≤8 kilopascal (kPa) suggested a reduced risk of late recurrence (>12 months) (hazard ratio (HR), 0.519; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.307–0.877; p = 0.014). Older age at surgery (≥45 years) and multiple HCC nodules predicted an increased risk of late recurrence (HR, 3.270; 95% CI, 1.296–8.251; p = 0.012; and HR, 3.146; 95% CI, 1.396–7.089; p = 0.006). Decreased LSM also suggested decreased mortality (HR, 0.251; 95% CI, 0.086–0.756; p = 0.045) along with baseline low aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) score (<1.5) (HR, 0.251; 95% CI, 0.086–0.759; p = 0.041). Having early HCC recurrence (HR, 9.416; 95% CI, 3.566–24.861; p < 0.001) and microvascular tumor invasion (HR, 3.191; 95% CI, 1.188–8.568; p = 0.021) predicted increased mortality. Among HCC patients with liver cirrhosis under antiviral therapy, achieving low LSM (≤8 kPa) predicted reduced late HCC recurrence.

Development and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained virologic response after antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is a leading cause of liver-related deaths worldwide. Recently available direct-acting antiviral agent is very safe and highly effective (>95% sustained virologic response, SVR) against all genotypes of HCV. Achievement of SVR has been associated with a significant reduction of hepatic decompensation, development of HCC, and liver-related mortality. However, HCC risk is not eliminated even after SVR. The annual incidences of HCC in advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have been estimated to be up to 2.5-4.5% even in patients with SVR. Therefore, surveillance for HCC is recommended in this high-risk patients. In this review, we will describe the clinical outcomes and the risk of HCC in patients with SVR and suggest who should receive surveillance for HCC.

Molecular Mechanisms of Hepatocarcinogenesis Following Sustained Virological Response in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Despite the success of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents in treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, the number of cases of HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expected to increase over the next five years. HCC develops over the span of decades and is closely associated with fibrosis stage. HCV both directly and indirectly establishes a pro-inflammatory environment favorable for viral replication. Repeated cycles of cell death and regeneration lead to genomic instability and loss of cell cycle control. DAA therapy offers >90% sustained virological response (SVR) rates with fewer side effects and restrictions than interferon. While elimination of HCV helps to restore liver function and reverse mild fibrosis, post-SVR patients remain at elevated risk of HCC. A series of studies reporting higher than expected rates of HCC development among DAA-treated patients ignited debate over whether use of DAAs elevates HCC risk compared to interferon. However, recent prospective and retrospective studies based on larger patient cohorts have found no significant difference in risk between DAA and interferon therapy once other factors are taken into account. Although many mechanisms and pathways involved in hepatocarcinogenesis have been elucidated, our understanding of drivers specific to post-SVR hepatocarcinogenesis is still limited, and lack of suitable in vivo and in vitro experimental systems has hampered efforts to examine etiology-specific mechanisms that might serve to answer this question more thoroughly. Further research is needed to identify risk factors and biomarkers for post-SVR HCC and to develop targeted therapies based on more complete understanding of the molecules and pathways implicated in hepatocarcinogenesis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment by the measurement of liver stiffness variations in HCV cirrhotics treated with direct acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are an effective treatment for hepatitis C virus infection. However, sustained virologic response (SVR) after DAA treatment does not seem to reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in these patients. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) may predict the risk of developing HCC in liver cirrhosis patients.

AIMS

The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of LSM variation as predictor of HCC development in patients treated with DAA.

METHODS

In 139 HCV-related cirrhotic patients, LSM and laboratory tests were carried out at baseline (BL) and at the end of DAA treatment (EOT). Patients were followed for at least 6 months after the EOT. LSM reduction was expressed as Delta LS (∆LS). Cox regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors for HCC development after DAA.

RESULTS

Median LSM values were significantly reduced from BL to EOT (from 18.6 to 13.8 kPa; p < 0.001). The median ∆LS was -26.7% (IQR: -38.4% -13.6%). During a median follow-up of 15 months after DAA treatment, 20 (14.4%) patients developed HCC. Significant LSM reduction was observed both in patients who developed HCC and in those who did not, but this was significantly lower in the patients who developed HCC (-18.0% vs -28.9% p = 0.005). At multivariate analysis, ∆LS lower than -30%, Child-Turcotte-Pugh-B and history of HCC were independently associated with HCC development.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that ∆LS is a useful non-invasive marker for predicting HCC development after DAA treatment.

Shear wave elastography predicts hepatocellular carcinoma risk in hepatitis C patients after sustained virological response

AIM

To evaluate the relationship between fibrosis and HCC after sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment for chronic hepatitis C (HCV).

METHODS

This single-center study retrospectively evaluated 196 patients who achieved SVR after HCV infection. The associations of risk factors with HCC development after HCV eradication were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Among the 196 patients, 8 patients (4.1%) developed HCC after SVR during a median follow-up of 26 months. Multivariate analyses revealed that HCC development was independently associated with age of ≥75 years (risk ratio [RR] = 35.16), α- fetoprotein levels of ≥6 ng/mL (RR = 40.30), and SWE results of ≥11 kPa (RR = 28.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that SWE may facilitate HCC surveillance after SVR and the identification of patients who have an increased risk of HCC after HCV clearance.

Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

Patients who develop chronic fibrotic liver disease, caused by viral or metabolic aetiologies, are at a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even after complete HCC tumour resection or ablation, the carcinogenic tissue microenvironment in the remnant liver can give rise to recurrent de novo HCC tumours, which progress into incurable, advanced-stage disease in most patients. Thus, early detection and prevention of HCC development is, in principle, the most impactful strategy to improve patient prognosis. However, a "one-size-fits-all" approach to HCC screening for early tumour detection, as recommended by clinical practice guidelines, is utilised in less than 20% of the target population, and the performance of screening modalities, including ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, is suboptimal. Furthermore, optimal screening strategies for emerging at-risk patient populations, such as those with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure, or those with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease remain controversial. New HCC biomarkers and imaging modalities may improve the sensitivity and specificity of HCC detection. Clinical and molecular HCC risk scores will enable precise HCC risk prediction followed by tailoured HCC screening of individual patients, maximising cost-effectiveness and optimising allocation of limited medical resources. Several aetiology-specific and generic HCC chemoprevention strategies are evolving. Epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidate chemoprevention targets and therapies, including statins, anti-diabetic drugs, and selective molecular targeted agents, although their clinical testing has been limited by the lengthy process of cancer development that requires long-term, costly studies. Individual HCC risk prediction is expected to overcome the challenge by enabling personalised chemoprevention, targeting high-risk patients for precision HCC prevention and substantially improving the dismal prognosis of HCC.

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Chronic HCV Infection Results in Liver Stiffness Regression Over 12 Months Post-treatment

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis stage determines risk of morbidity and mortality from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Prior data have shown long-term reversal of liver fibrosis, measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), in patients successfully treated with interferon-based therapies.

AIM

Our study sought to determine the effect of treatment with modern HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy on noninvasive liver fibrosis measurements.

METHODS

A total of 70 patients had VCTE-based liver stiffness measurement (LSM) taken before treatment, directly after treatment completion, and at least 12 months after completion of DAA therapy. Our primary outcome was a >30% improvement in VCTE score at the end of follow-up, relative to baseline.

RESULTS

The sustained virologic response rate in our cohort was 95.7%. In our cohort, 34 (48.6%) met the primary outcome. Those who had baseline elevated alanine aminotransferase (OR 3.27; 95% CI 1.13-9.47) and genotype 1 (OR 14.63; 95% CI 1.70-125.83) had higher odds of meeting that outcome, and this remained significant after adjusting for age, baseline body mass index, gender, baseline elevated alkaline phosphatase levels, treatment experience, liver transplant status, smoking, and baseline liver stiffness.

CONCLUSION

Treatment of chronic HCV with modern DAA therapy was associated with a significant improvement in LSM by VCTE measurement, suggesting possible early improvement in liver fibrosis along with resolution of inflammation over the first year after treatment completion.

American Gastroenterological Association Institute Clinical Practice Update-Expert Review: Care of Patients Who Have Achieved a Sustained Virologic Response After Antiviral Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is well-recognized as a common blood-borne infection with global public health impact affecting 3 to 5 million persons in the United States and more than 170 million persons worldwide. Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality due to complications of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Current therapies with all-oral direct-acting antiviral agents are associated with high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR), generally exceeding 90%. SVR is associated with a reduced risk of liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, need for liver transplantation, and both liver-related and all-cause mortality. However, a subset of patients who achieve SVR will remain at long-term risk for progression to cirrhosis, liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality. Limited evidence is available to guide clinicians on which post-SVR patients should be monitored vs discharged, how to monitor and with which tests, how frequently should monitoring occur, and for how long. In this clinical practice update, available evidence and expert opinion are used to generate best practice recommendations on the care of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus who have achieved SVR.

Hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of new generation antivirals

Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Interferon has been the major antiviral treatment, yielding viral clearance in approximately half of patients. New direct-acting antivirals substantially improved the cure rate to above 90%. However, access to therapies remains limited due to the high costs and under-diagnosis of infection in specific subpopulations, e.g., baby boomers, inmates, and injection drug users, and therefore, hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is predicted to increase in the next decades even in high-resource countries. Moreover, cancer risk persists even after 10 years of viral cure, and thus a clinical strategy for its monitoring is urgently needed. Several risk-predictive host factors, e.g., advanced liver fibrosis, older age, accompanying metabolic diseases such as diabetes, persisting hepatic inflammation, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein, as well as viral factors, e.g., core protein variants and genotype 3, have been reported. Indeed, a molecular signature in the liver has been associated with cancer risk even after viral cure. Direct-acting antivirals may affect cancer development and recurrence, which needs to be determined in further investigation.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major causes of advanced liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. While the knowledge about the molecular virology of HCV infection has markedly advanced, the molecular mechanisms of disease progression leading to fibrosis, cirrhosis and HCC are still unclear. Accumulating experimental and clinical studies indicate that HCV may drive hepatocarcinogenesis directly via its proteins or transcripts, and/or indirectly through induction of chronic liver inflammation. Despite the possibility to eradicate HCV infection through direct-acting antiviral treatment, the risk of HCC persists although specific biomarkers to estimate this risk are still missing. Thus, a better understanding of HCV-induced HCC and more physiological liver disease models are required to prevent cancer development.