Novel statistical methods for integrating genetic and stable isotope data to infer individual-level migratory connectivity

Geographic source of bats killed at wind-energy facilities in the eastern United States

Bats subject to high rates of fatalities at wind-energy facilities are of high conservation concern due to the long-term, cumulative effects they have, but the impact on broader bat populations can be difficult to assess. One reason is the poor understanding of the geographic source of individual fatalities and whether they constitute migrants or more local individuals. Here, we used stable hydrogen isotopes, trace elements and species distribution models to determine the most likely summer geographic origins of three different bat species (Lasiurus borealis, L. cinereus, and Lasionycteris noctivagans) killed at wind-energy facilities in Ohio and Maryland in the eastern United States. In Ohio, 41.6%, 21.3%, 2.2% of all individuals of L. borealis, L. cinereus, and L. noctivagans, respectively, had evidence of movement. In contrast, in Maryland 77.3%, 37.1%, and 27.3% of these same species were classified as migrants. Our results suggest bats killed at a given wind facility are likely derived from migratory as well as resident populations. Finally, there is variation in the proportion of migrants killed between seasons for some species and evidence of philopatry to summer roosts. Overall, these results indicate that the impact of wind-energy facilities on bat populations occurs across a large geographic extent, with the proportion of migrants impacted likely to vary across species and sites. Similar studies should be conducted across a broader geographic scale to understand the impacts on bat populations from wind-energy facilities.

A synthesis of recent tools and perspectives in migratory connectivity studies

Migration movements connect breeding and non-breeding bird populations over the year. Such links, referred to as migratory connectivity, have important implications for migratory population dynamics as they dictate the consequences of localised events for the whole population network. This calls for concerted efforts to understand migration processes for large-scale conservation. Over the last 20 years, the toolbox to investigate connectivity patterns has expanded and studies now consider migratory connectivity over a broader range of species and contexts. Here, we summarise recent developments in analysing migratory connectivity, focusing on strategies and challenges to pooling various types of data to both optimise and broaden the scope of connectivity studies. We find that the different approaches used to investigate migratory connectivity still have complementary strengths and weaknesses, whether in terms of cost, spatial and temporal resolution, or challenges in obtaining large sample sizes or connectivity estimates. Certain recent developments offer particularly promising prospects: robust quantitative models for banding data, improved precision of geolocators and accessibility of telemetry tracking systems, and increasingly precise probabilistic assignments based on genomic markers or large-scale isoscapes. In parallel, studies have proposed various ways to combine the information of different datasets, from simply comparing the connectivity patterns they draw to formally integrating their analyses. Such data combinations have proven to be more accurate in estimating connectivity patterns, particularly for integrated approaches that offer promising flexibility. Given the diversity of available tools, future studies would benefit from a rigorous comparative evaluation of the different methodologies to guide data collection to complete migration atlases: where and when should data be collected during the migratory cycle to best describe connectivity patterns? Which data are most favourable to combine, and under what conditions? Are there methods for combining data that are better than others? Can combination methods be improved by adjusting the contribution of the various data in the models? How can we fully integrate connectivity with demographic and environmental data? Data integration shows strong potential to deepen our understanding of migratory connectivity as a dynamic ecological process, especially if the gaps can be bridged between connectivity, population and environmental models.

Empirical tests of habitat selection theory reveal that conspecific density and patch quality, but not habitat amount, drive long-distance immigration in a wild bird

Individuals that disperse long distances from their natal site must select breeding patches with no prior knowledge of patch suitability. Despite decades of theoretical studies examining which cues dispersing individuals should use to select breeding patches, few empirical studies have tested the predictions of these theories at spatial scales relevant to long‐distance dispersal in wild animal populations. Here, we use a novel assignment model based on multiple intrinsic markers to quantify natal dispersal distances of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) breeding in forest fragments. We show that long‐distance natal dispersal in this species is more frequent than commonly assumed for songbirds and that habitat selection by these individuals is driven by density‐dependence and patch quality but not the amount of habitat surrounding breeding patches. These results represent an important contribution to understanding habitat selection by dispersing individuals, especially with regards to long‐distance dispersal.

Using trace elements to identify the geographic origin of migratory bats

The expansion of the wind energy industry has had benefits in terms of increased renewable energy production but has also led to increased mortality of migratory bats due to interactions with wind turbines. A key question that could guide bat-related management activities is identifying the geographic origin of bats killed at wind-energy facilities. Generating this information requires developing new methods for identifying the geographic sources of individual bats. Here we explore the viability of assigning geographic origin using trace element analyses of fur to infer the summer molting location of eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis). Our approach is based on the idea that the concentration of trace elements in bat fur is related through the food chain to the amount of trace elements present in the soil, which varies across large geographic scales. Specifically, we used inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry to determine the concentration of fourteen trace elements in fur of 126 known-origin eastern red bats to generate a basemap for assignment throughout the range of this species in eastern North America. We then compared this map to publicly available soil trace element concentrations for the U.S. and Canada, used a probabilistic framework to generate likelihood-of-origin maps for each bat, and assessed how well trace element profiles predicted the origins of these individuals. Overall, our results suggest that trace elements allow successful assignment of individual bats 80% of the time while reducing probable locations in half. Our study supports the use of trace elements to identify the geographic origin of eastern red and perhaps other migratory bats, particularly when combined with data from other biomarkers such as genetic and stable isotope data.

Integrating stable isotopes, parasite, and ring-reencounter data to quantify migratory connectivity-A case study with Barn Swallows breeding in Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland

Ecosystems around the world are connected by seasonal migration. The migrant animals themselves are influenced by migratory connectivity through effects on the individual and the population level. Measuring migratory connectivity is notoriously difficult due to the simple requirement of data conveying information about the nonbreeding distribution of many individuals from several breeding populations. Explicit integration of data derived from different methods increases the precision and the reliability of parameter estimates. We combine ring-reencounter, stable isotope, and blood parasite data of Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica in a single integrated model to estimate migratory connectivity for three large scale breeding populations across a latitudinal gradient from Central Europe to Scandinavia. To this end, we integrated a non-Markovian multistate mark-recovery model for the ring-reencounter data with normal and binomial mixture models for the stable isotope and parasite data. The integration of different data sources within a mark-recapture modeling framework enables the most precise quantification of migratory connectivity on the given broad spatial scale. The results show that northern-breeding populations and Southern Africa as well as southern-breeding populations and Western-Central Africa are more strongly connected through Barn Swallow migration than central European breeding populations with any of the African wintering areas. The nonbreeding distribution of Barn Swallows from central European breeding populations seems to be a mixture of those populations breeding further north and south, indicating a migratory divide.

Migration distance does not predict blood parasitism in a migratory songbird

Migration can influence host-parasite dynamics in animals by increasing exposure to parasites, by reducing the energy available for immune defense, or by culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated in several comparative analyses; however, few studies have investigated whether conspecific variation in migration distance may also be related to infection risk. Here, we ask whether autumn migration distance, inferred from stable hydrogen isotope analysis of summer-grown feathers (δ 2Hf) in Europe, correlates with blood parasite prevalence and intensity of infection for willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) wintering in Zambia. We also investigated whether infection was correlated with individual condition (assessed via corticosterone, scaled mass index, and feather quality). We found that 43% of birds were infected with Haemoproteus palloris (lineage WW1). Using generalized linear models, we found no relationship between migration distance and either Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. There was spatial variation in breeding ground origins of infected versus noninfected birds, with infected birds originating from more northern sites than noninfected birds, but this difference translated into only slightly longer estimated migration distances (~214 km) for infected birds. We found no relationship between body condition indices and Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. Our results do not support any of the proposed mechanisms for migration effects on host-parasite dynamics and cautiously suggest that other factors may be more important for determining individual susceptibility to disease in migratory bird species.

From stable isotope ecology to forensic isotope ecology - Isotopes' tales

Stable isotope ecology and forensic isotope ecology are not only linked by name. More often than not, knowledge and insights gained through the former serve as a springboard for application focused work of the latter. This review aims to offer a glimpse into the fascinating world of both though with more emphasis on forensic isotope ecology. To this end a selection of past and recent published work is presented and discussed to highlight both potential and limitations of isotopic analytical approaches to the detection of illegal trade in plants and animals.

Migratory connectivity in the Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus)

AIM

We combine genetic and stable isotope data to quantify migration patterns in Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), a species of conservation concern in North America, to assess how connectivity differs and impacts population evolution, ecology, and conservation.

LOCATION

We sampled shrikes across the majority of their nonbreeding range, from the Atlantic Coast to the western United States east of the Rocky Mountains and throughout Mexico.

METHODS

Our study used a Bayesian framework using δ2Hf from a breeding season origin feather and nuclear genetic microsatellite markers to distinguish between co-occurring migratory and nonmigratory individuals on the wintering grounds and, for migrants, to assign individuals to a breeding ground origin and genetic group.

RESULTS

Migratory shrikes were present throughout the nonbreeding range but the proportion differed among sample areas. Four main wintering areas were identified. Connectivity ranged from weakly negative in birds wintering on the Atlantic Coast to strongly positive between wintering grounds in the southwestern United States and Mexico and northwestern breeding populations. Connectivity was weakest in L. l. migrans, and strongest in L. l. mexicanus and L. l. excubitorides. Although believed to be nonmigratory, long-distance movements of individuals were observed in L. ludovicianus and L. l. mexicanus. Our data support a pattern of chain migration, again most notable in the western half of the species nonbreeding range, and differential migration based on age.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides of one such of the first quantitative measures of migratory connectivity and is among the first studies of a short-distance migratory passerine in North America. The higher migratory connectivity among western, versus eastern populations, and less severe population declines attributable to habitat loss or reproductive success, may result in more localized and/or less severe limiting factors for western populations and more severe on the Atlantic coast and Mississippi Alluvial Valley wintering grounds.

Origins of Wilson’s Warblers migrating through southwest Canada: Adding value to banding data by using stable isotopes and genetic markers

Stopovers used by birds during migration concentrate individuals from broad geographic areas potentially providing important information on catchment areas of birds moving through these sites. We combined stable isotope (δ2H), genetic fingerprinting and band recovery data to delineate the molt origins of Wilson’s Warblers (Cardellina pusilla) migrating through a stopover site in southwestern Canada in the fall. We assessed changes in δ2Hf indicating latitudinal origins with ordinal date to show this species likely underwent leapfrog migration through this site. Using the combined approach to determine origins, Wilson’s Warblers migrating through southwestern Alberta in 2015 were mostly from the western boreal population (n = 155, 96%) with some individuals from the Pacific Northwest (n = 1, 0.6%), Rocky Mountain (n = 2, 1.2%) and eastern boreal (n = 3, 1.8%) populations. Our results suggest that individuals migrating through our study site come from a broad catchment area potentially from a large part of northwestern North America. Future studies should link population changes at banding stations with other information to determine associations with large-scale landscape-level drivers (e.g. climate, land use).

Foraging and recruitment hotspot dynamics for the largest Atlantic loggerhead turtle rookery

Determining patterns of migratory connectivity for highly-mobile, wide-ranging species, such as sea turtles, is challenging. Here, we combined satellite telemetry and stable isotope analysis to estimate foraging locations for 749 individual loggerheads nesting along the east central Florida (USA) coast, the largest rookery for the Northwest Atlantic population. We aggregated individual results by year, identified seven foraging hotspots and tracked these summaries to describe the dynamics of inter-annual contributions of these geographic areas to this rookery over a nine-year period. Using reproductive information for a subset of turtles (n = 513), we estimated hatchling yields associated with each hotspots. We found considerable inter-annual variability in the relative contribution of foraging areas to the nesting adults. Also reproductive success differed among foraging hotspots; females using southern foraging areas laid nests that produced more offspring in all but one year of the study. These analyses identified two high priority areas for future research and conservation efforts: the continental shelf adjacent to east central Florida and the Great Bahama Bank, which support higher numbers of foraging females that provide higher rates of hatchling production. The implementation of the continuous-surface approach to determine geographic origins of unknown migrants is applicable to other migratory species.

Incorporating breeding abundance into spatial assignments on continuous surfaces

Determining the geographic connections between breeding and nonbreeding populations, termed migratory connectivity, is critical to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of migratory species. Assignment models based on stable isotopes historically have been an important tool for studying migratory connectivity of small-bodied species, but the low resolution of these assignments has generated interest into combining isotopes with other sources in information. Abundance is one of the most appealing data sources to include in isotope-based assignments, but there are currently no statistical methods or guidelines for optimizing the contribution of stable isotopes and abundance for inferring migratory connectivity. Using known-origin stable-hydrogen isotope samples of six Neotropical migratory bird species, we rigorously assessed the performance of assignment models that differentially weight the contribution of the isotope and abundance data. For two species with adequate sample sizes, we used Pareto optimality to determine the set of models that simultaneously minimized both assignment error rate and assignment area. We then assessed the ability of the top models from these two species to improve assignments of the remaining four species compared to assignments based on isotopes alone. We show that the increased precision of models that include abundance is often offset by a large increase in assignment error. However, models that optimally weigh the abundance data relative to the isotope data can result in higher precision and, in some cases, lower error than models based on isotopes alone. The top models, however, depended on the distribution of relative breeding abundance, with patchier distributions requiring stronger downweighting of abundance, and we present general guidelines for future studies. These results confirm that breeding abundance can be an important source of information for studies investigating broad-scale movements of migratory birds and potentially other taxa.

Polygamy slows down population divergence in shorebirds

Sexual selection may act as a promotor of speciation since divergent mate choice and competition for mates can rapidly lead to reproductive isolation. Alternatively, sexual selection may also retard speciation since polygamous individuals can access additional mates by increased breeding dispersal. High breeding dispersal should hence increase gene flow and reduce diversification in polygamous species. Here, we test how polygamy predicts diversification in shorebirds using genetic differentiation and subspecies richness as proxies for population divergence. Examining microsatellite data from 79 populations in 10 plover species (Genus: Charadrius) we found that polygamous species display significantly less genetic structure and weaker isolation-by-distance effects than monogamous species. Consistent with this result, a comparative analysis including 136 shorebird species showed significantly fewer subspecies for polygamous than for monogamous species. By contrast, migratory behavior neither predicted genetic differentiation nor subspecies richness. Taken together, our results suggest that dispersal associated with polygamy may facilitate gene flow and limit population divergence. Therefore, intense sexual selection, as occurs in polygamous species, may act as a brake rather than an engine of speciation in shorebirds. We discuss alternative explanations for these results and call for further studies to understand the relationships between sexual selection, dispersal, and diversification.

Investigating human geographic origins using dual-isotope (87Sr/86Sr, δ18O) assignment approaches

Substantial progress in the application of multiple isotope analyses has greatly improved the ability to identify nonlocal individuals amongst archaeological populations over the past decades. More recently the development of large scale models of spatial isotopic variation (isoscapes) has contributed to improved geographic assignments of human and animal origins. Persistent challenges remain, however, in the accurate identification of individual geographic origins from skeletal isotope data in studies of human (and animal) migration and provenance. In an attempt to develop and test more standardized and quantitative approaches to geographic assignment of individual origins using isotopic data two methods, combining ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ¹⁸O isoscapes, are examined for the Circum-Caribbean region: 1) an Interval approach using a defined range of fixed isotopic variation per location; and 2) a Likelihood assignment approach using univariate and bivariate probability density functions. These two methods are tested with enamel isotope data from a modern sample of known origin from Caracas, Venezuela and further explored with two archaeological samples of unknown origin recovered from Cuba and Trinidad. The results emphasize both the potential and limitation of the different approaches. Validation tests on the known origin sample exclude most areas of the Circum-Caribbean region and correctly highlight Caracas as a possible place of origin with both approaches. The positive validation results clearly demonstrate the overall efficacy of a dual-isotope approach to geoprovenance. The accuracy and precision of geographic assignments may be further improved by better understanding of the relationships between environmental and biological isotope variation; continued development and refinement of relevant isoscapes; and the eventual incorporation of a broader array of isotope proxy data.

Inferring the timing of long-distance dispersal between Rail metapopulations using genetic and isotopic assignments

The stochastic and infrequent nature of long-distance dispersal often makes it difficult to detect. We quantified the frequency, distance, and timing of long-distance dispersal in a nonmigratory, secretive wetland bird, the California Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus), between an inland and a coastal metapopulation separated by greater than 100 km. Using 15 microsatellites in conjunction with stable carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur isotopes, we classified Rails as residents of their capture population, recent migrants that dispersed to their capture population less than one year before capture, established migrants that dispersed to their capture population more than one year before capture, and seasonal migrants that dispersed away from their capture population to forage, but returned the next season. Most Rails (195 of 204, or 95.6%) were classified as residents, but we detected two established migrants that had moved >100 km more than a year before capture. Seven Rails appeared to be seasonal migrants, but comparisons of feather isotope values with isotope values from wetland soils indicated that the isotope values in the feathers of these Rails likely resulted from natural environmental variation (e.g., source element effects) rather than long-distance dispersal of individuals. Thus, these seven Rails were most likely misassigned by isotopic population assignments due to small-scale variation in the isoscape. Using genetic data in conjunction with isotopic data allowed us to not only infer the timing of long-distance dispersal events, but to successfully track long-distance movements of nonmigratory Rails between metapopulations even when environmental variation of isotopes occurred across small spatial scales.

Within-Site Variation in Feather Stable Hydrogen Isotope (δ2Hf) Values of Boreal Songbirds: Implications for Assignment to Molt Origin

Understanding bird migration and dispersal is important to inform full life-cycle conservation planning. Stable hydrogen isotope ratios from feathers (δ2Hf) can be linked to amount-weighted long-term, growing season precipitation δ2H (δ2Hp) surfaces to create δ2Hf isoscapes for assignment to molt origin. However, transfer functions linking δ2Hp with δ2Hf are influenced by physiological and environmental processes. A better understanding of the causes and consequences of variation in δ2Hf values among individuals and species will improve the predictive ability of geographic assignment tests. We tested for effects of species, land cover, forage substrate, nest substrate, diet composition, body mass, sex, and phylogenetic relatedness on δ2Hf from individuals at least two years old of 21 songbird species captured during the same breeding season at a site in northeastern Alberta, Canada. For four species, we also tested for a year × species interaction effect on δ2Hf. A model including species as single predictor received the most support (AIC weight = 0.74) in explaining variation in δ2Hf. A species-specific variance parameter was part of all best-ranked models, suggesting variation in δ2Hf was not consistent among species. The second best-ranked model included a forage substrate × diet interaction term (AIC weight = 0.16). There was a significant year × species interaction effect on δ2Hf suggesting that interspecific differences in δ2Hf can differ among years. Our results suggest that within- and among-year interspecific variation in δ2Hf is the most important source of variance typically not being explicitly quantified in geographic assignment tests using non-specific transfer functions to convert δ2Hp into δ2Hf. However, this source of variation is consistent with the range of variation from the transfer functions most commonly being propagated in assignment tests of geographic origins for passerines breeding in North America.

Linking Isotopes and Panmixia: High Within-Colony Variation in Feather δ2H, δ13C, and δ15N across the Range of the American White Pelican

Complete panmixia across the entire range of a species is a relatively rare phenomenon; however, this pattern may be found in species that have limited philopatry and frequent dispersal. American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhyncos) provide a unique opportunity to examine the role of long-distance dispersal in facilitating gene flow in a species recently reported as panmictic across its broad breeding range. This species is also undergoing a range expansion, with new colonies arising hundreds of kilometers outside previous range boundaries. In this study, we use a multiple stable isotope (δ²H, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) approach to examine feather isotopic structuring at 19 pelican colonies across North America, with the goal of establishing an isotopic basemap that could be used for assigning individuals at newly established breeding sites to source colonies. Within-colony isotopic variation was extremely high, exceeding 100‰ in δ²H within some colonies (with relatively high variation also observed for δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N). The high degree of within-site variation greatly limited the utility of assignment-based approaches (42% cross-validation success rate; range: 0–90% success). Furthermore, clustering algorithms identified four likely isotopic clusters; however, those clusters were generally unrelated to geographic location. Taken together, the high degree of within-site isotopic variation and lack of geographically-defined isotopic clusters preclude the establishment of an isotopic basemap for American white pelicans, but may indicate that a high incidence of long-distance dispersal is facilitating gene flow, leading to genetic panmixia.

Migration patterns of San Francisco Bay Area Hermit Thrushes differ across a fine spatial scale

Effective conservation of short-distance migrants requires an understanding of intraspecific variation in migratory patterns across small spatial scales. Until the advent of ultra-light geolocation devices, our knowledge of the migratory connectivity of songbirds was limited. For the Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus), subspecies delineations and connectivity patterns have been unclear in the portion of their breeding range in western North America from southeastern Alaska to northwestern Washington, where individuals wintering in the San Francisco Bay Area of California purportedly breed. To determine breeding locations and migratory timing of the Bay Area’s wintering Hermit Thrushes, we deployed geolocators at sites to the north and south of the San Francisco Bay. We compared results from these two regions to one another and to connectivity patterns suggested by subspecies definitions. We collected morphometrics to identify regional differences. Hermit Thrushes that wintered in the North Bay had a wider and more southerly breeding distribution from the British Columbia coast to northwestern Washington, whereas South Bay thrushes migrated to southeastern Alaska and the British Columbia coast. In general, North Bay thrushes departed wintering grounds and arrived on breeding grounds earlier than South Bay thrushes, but we cannot eliminate sex as a factor in these differences. Regional morphology differed only in bill length. Intraspecific isolation in glacial refugia during the Late Pleistocene may explain these fine-scale geographic variations in migration patterns and morphology.

Migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird revealed by archival light-level geolocators

Understanding migratory connectivity is critical for interpreting population dynamics, seasonal interactions, and for the implementation of conservation strategies of migratory species. We evaluated the migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird, the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) using archival light-level geolocators deployed at two breeding and four nonbreeding locations while incorporating Ovenbird abundance as prior information using Bayes' Rule. We also included band recoveries submitted to the United States Geological Survey's Bird Banding Laboratory to assess connectivity of areas where geolocators were not deployed. We created a probabilistic map of origin for each capture site and mapped spring migration routes between nonbreeding and breeding locations. We found a complete separation of eastern and western populations of Ovenbirds throughout the annual cycle. Breeding Ovenbirds from western Canada spent the nonbreeding season throughout Central America and migrated through central North America during spring migration. Birds breeding in the northeastern United States were distributed throughout the central Greater Antilles in the Caribbean and migrated through eastern North America during spring migration. Fall migration routes were not included because the timing of migration coincided with fall equinox when latitudinal estimates are unreliable. However, longitudinal estimates suggest no overlap between eastern and western populations during fall migration. Ovenbirds with geolocators attached in Jamaica bred in the northeastern United States with the highest posterior probability of origin found in Massachusetts, while Ovenbirds captured in Florida and Puerto Rico bred primarily in the mid-Atlantic. Incorporating Ovenbird abundance as a prior into geolocator estimates decreased the area of origin by 90.37% ± 1.05% (mean ± SE) for the breeding season and 62.30% ± 1.69% for the nonbreeding season, compared to geolocator estimates alone. Ovenbirds exhibited strong migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding season, which has important implications for various aspects of the ecology, evolution, and conservation.

Determining origin in a migratory marine vertebrate: a novel method to integrate stable isotopes and satellite tracking

Stable isotope analysis is a useful tool to track animal movements in both terrestrial and marine environments. These intrinsic markers are assimilated through the diet and may exhibit spatial gradients as a result of biogeochemical processes at the base of the food web. In the marine environment, maps to predict the spatial distribution of stable isotopes are limited, and thus determining geographic origin has been reliant upon integrating satellite telemetry and stable isotope data. Migratory sea turtles regularly move between foraging and reproductive areas. Whereas most nesting populations can be easily accessed and regularly monitored, little is known about the demographic trends in foraging populations. The purpose of the present study was to examine migration patterns of loggerhead nesting aggregations in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), where sea turtles have been historically understudied. Two methods of geographic assignment using stable isotope values in known-origin samples from satellite telemetry were compared: (1) a nominal approach through discriminant analysis and (2) a novel continuous-surface approach using bivariate carbon and nitrogen isoscapes (isotopic landscapes) developed for this study. Tissue samples for stable isotope analysis were obtained from 60 satellite-tracked individuals at five nesting beaches within the GoM. Both methodological approaches for assignment resulted in high accuracy of foraging area determination, though each has advantages and disadvantages. The nominal approach is more appropriate when defined boundaries are necessary, but up to 42% of the individuals could not be considered in this approach. All individuals can be included in the continuous-surface approach, and individual results can be aggregated to identify geographic hotspots of foraging area use, though the accuracy rate was lower than nominal assignment. The methodological validation provides a foundation for future sea turtle studies in the region to inexpensively determine geographic origin for large numbers of untracked individuals. Regular monitoring of sea turtle nesting aggregations with stable isotope sampling can be used to fill critical data gaps regarding habitat use and migration patterns. Probabilistic assignment to origin with isoscapes has not been previously used in the marine environment, but the methods presented here could also be applied to other migratory marine species.

Integrative tracking methods elucidate the evolutionary dynamics of a migratory divide

Migratory divides, the boundary between adjacent bird populations that migrate in different directions, are of considerable interest to evolutionary biologists because of their alleged role in speciation of migratory birds. However, the small size of many passerines has traditionally limited the tools available to track populations and as a result, restricted our ability to study how reproductive isolation might occur across a divide. Here, we integrate multiple approaches by using genetic, geolocator, and morphological data to investigate a migratory divide in hermit thrushes (Catharus guttatus). First, high genetic divergence between migratory groups indicates the divide is a region of secondary contact between historically isolated populations. Second, despite low sample sizes, geolocators reveal dramatic differences in overwintering locations and migratory distance of individuals from either side of the divide. Third, a diagnostic genetic marker that proved useful for tracking a key population suggests a likely intermediate nonbreeding location of birds from the hybrid zone. This finding, combined with lower return rates from this region, is consistent with comparatively lower fitness of hybrids, which is possibly due to this intermediate migration pattern. We discuss our results in the context of reproductive isolating mechanisms associated with migration patterns that have long been hypothesized to promote divergence across migratory divides.

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America.

Assessing migratory connectivity for a long-distance migratory bird using multiple intrinsic markers

Patterns of migratory connectivity are a vital yet poorly understood component of the ecology and evolution of migratory birds. Our ability to accurately characterize patterns of migratory connectivity is often limited by the spatial resolution of the data, but recent advances in probabilistic assignment approaches have begun pairing stable isotopes with other sources of data (e.g., genetic and mark-recapture) to improve the accuracy and precision of inferences based on a single marker. Here, we combine stable isotopes and geographic variation in morphology (wing length) to probabilistically assign Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustilena) captured on the wintering grounds to breeding locations. In addition, we use known-origin samples to validate our model and assess potentially important impacts of isotopic and morphological covariates (age, sex, and breeding location). Our results show that despite relatively high levels of mixing across their breeding and nonbreeding ranges, moderate levels of migratory connectivity exist along an east-west gradient. In addition, combining stable isotopes with geographic variation in wing length improved the precision of breeding assignments by 10% and 37% compared to assignments based on isotopes alone or wing length alone, respectively. These results demonstrate that geographical variation in morphological traits can greatly improve estimates of migratory connectivity when combined with other intrinsic markers (e.g., stable isotopes or genetic data). The wealth of morphological data available from museum specimens across the world represents a tremendously valuable, but largely untapped, resource that is widely applicable for quantifying patterns of migratory connectivity.

Unravelling migratory connections: the next level

Migration is widespread among birds, and the strength of the link between the breeding and wintering grounds, migratory connectivity, influences many ecological and evolutionary processes. Despite its importance, migratory connectivity is poorly estimated for most species. Traditionally, visual observations and bird ringing have been used to monitor migration, but these methods require more effort for relatively little return. Genetic markers and stable isotope signatures have increasingly been used to study connectivity. Each approach has its distinct strengths and weaknesses, and as is often the case, a combination may yield the most insight. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Rundel and colleagues (2013) present a novel Bayesian statistical framework in which genetics and stable isotope data can be combined to improve the assignment of individuals to different winter or breeding regions. The development of such new statistical methods combined with the increasing number and ease of access of isotopic and genetic data sets will greatly enhance our understanding of migratory connectivity. Add to this the developments of miniature devices to track movements of individuals, and the field is destined to make major progression in the decades to come.

Space, time and complexity in plant dispersal ecology

Dispersal of pollen and seeds are essential functions of plant species, with far-reaching demographic, ecological and evolutionary consequences. Interest in plant dispersal has increased with concerns about the persistence of populations and species under global change. We argue here that advances in plant dispersal ecology research will be determined by our ability to surmount challenges of spatiotemporal scales and heterogeneities and ecosystem complexity. Based on this framework, we propose a selected set of research questions, for which we suggest some specific objectives and methodological approaches. Reviewed topics include multiple vector contributions to plant dispersal, landscape-dependent dispersal patterns, long-distance dispersal events, spatiotemporal variation in dispersal, and the consequences of dispersal for plant communities, populations under climate change, and anthropogenic landscapes.