Estimation of migration rates from marker-based parentage analysis

Asymptomatic viral infection is associated with lower host reproductive output in wild mink populations

Many endemic viruses circulate in populations without hosts showing visible signs of disease, while still having the potential to alter host survival or reproduction. Aleutian Mink Disease Virus (AMDV) circulates in many American mink (Neogale vison) populations in its native and introduced ranges. In this study, we analysed how AMDV infection in female American mink affects the reproduction of a feral population. Females infected with AMDV delivered significantly smaller litters (5.8 pups) than uninfected females (6.3 pups), meaning their litter size was reduced by 8%. Larger females and yearling females had larger litters than smaller and older females. There were no significant differences in whole litter survival between infected and uninfected females; however, offspring survival until September or October within litters of infected females was 14% lower than that within those of uninfected females. This negative link between infection and reproductive output means that Aleutian disease could seriously affect the wild mink population. This study increases our understanding of the threats posed by the spread of viruses to wildlife from farm animals or humans, highlighting that viruses circulating in wildlife, even in the absence of clinical manifestation, can be important drivers of population dynamics in wildlife.

Temporal sampling and network analysis reveal rapid population turnover and dynamic migration pattern in overwintering regions of a cosmopolitan pest

Genetic makeup of insect pest is informative for source-sink dynamics, spreading of insecticide resistant genes, and effective management. However, collecting samples from field populations without considering temporal resolution and calculating parameters related to historical gene flow may not capture contemporary genetic pattern and metapopulation dynamics of highly dispersive pests. Plutella xylostella (L.), the most widely distributed Lepidopteran pest that developed resistance to almost all current insecticides, migrates heterogeneously across space and time. To investigate its real-time genetic pattern and dynamics, we executed four samplings over two consecutive years across Southern China and Southeast Asia, and constructed population network based on contemporary gene flow. Across 48 populations, genetic structure analysis identified two differentiated insect swarms, of which the one with higher genetic variation was replaced by the other over time. We further inferred gene flow by estimation of kinship relationship and constructed migration network in each sampling time. Interestingly, we found mean migration distance at around 1,000 km. Such distance might have contributed to the formation of step-stone migration and migration circuit over large geographical scale. Probing network clustering across sampling times, we found a dynamic P. xylostella metapopulation with more active migration in spring than in winter, and identified a consistent pattern that some regions are sources (e.g., Yunnan in China, Myanmar and Vietnam) while several others are sinks (e.g., Guangdong and Fujian in China) over 2 years. Rapid turnover of insect swarms and highly dynamic metapopulation highlight the importance of temporal sampling and network analysis in investigation of source-sink relationships and thus effective pest management of P. xylostella, and other highly dispersive insect pests.

Estimating contemporary migration numbers of adults based on kinship relationships in iteroparous species

This paper describes the development of estimators for the contemporary migration number and rate of adults between two populations in iteroparous species. The proposed estimators are based on known half-sibling (HS) and/or parent-offspring (PO) relationships observed between populations across breeding seasons. The rationale is that HS and PO pairs exhibit information about the occurrence frequency of parental movements during the breeding interval. The proposed method allows for variance in the average number of offspring per parent within and between populations. In addition, coupled with the PO pairs found within the population, the estimators can be obtained using only genetic data. Generally, a sample size representing the square root of the population size is required to obtain meaningful migration information. We describe a detailed evaluation of the performance of the proposed estimators by running an individual-based model, and the results provide guidance regarding sample sizes to ensure the required accuracy and precision. In addition, given that there are few effective methods to estimate adult movement (especially when populations cannot be genetically distinct), we discuss the usefulness of the proposed kinship assignment method in terms of conservation biology and wildlife management.

A brief history and popularity of methods and tools used to estimate micro-evolutionary forces

Population genetics is a field of research that predates the current generations of sequencing technology. Those approaches, that were established before massively parallel sequencing methods, have been adapted to these new marker systems (in some cases involving the development of new methods) that allow genome-wide estimates of the four major micro-evolutionary forces-mutation, gene flow, genetic drift, and selection. Nevertheless, classic population genetic markers are still commonly used and a plethora of analysis methods and programs is available for these and high-throughput sequencing (HTS) data. These methods employ various and diverse theoretical and statistical frameworks, to varying degrees of success, to estimate similar evolutionary parameters making it difficult to get a concise overview across the available approaches. Presently, reviews on this topic generally focus on a particular class of methods to estimate one or two evolutionary parameters. Here, we provide a brief history of methods and a comprehensive list of available programs for estimating micro-evolutionary forces. We furthermore analyzed their usage within the research community based on popularity (citation bias) and discuss the implications of this bias for the software community. We found that a few programs received the majority of citations, with program success being independent of both the parameters estimated and the computing platform. The only deviation from a model of exponential growth in the number of citations was found for the presence of a graphical user interface (GUI). Interestingly, no relationship was found for the impact factor of the journals, when the tools were published, suggesting accessibility might be more important than visibility.

Pedigree-based assessment of recent population connectivity in a threatened rattlesnake

Managing endangered species in fragmented landscapes requires estimating dispersal rates between populations over contemporary timescales. Here, we developed a new method for quantifying recent dispersal using genetic pedigree data for close and distant kin. Specifically, we describe an approach that infers missing shared ancestors between pairs of kin in habitat patches across a fragmented landscape. We then applied a stepping-stone model to assign unsampled individuals in the pedigree to probable locations based on minimizing the number of movements required to produce the observed locations in sampled kin pairs. Finally, we used all pairs of reconstructed parent-offspring sets to estimate dispersal rates between habitat patches under a Bayesian model. Our approach measures connectivity over the timescale represented by the small number of generations contained within the pedigree and so is appropriate for estimating the impacts of recent habitat changes due to human activity. We used our method to estimate recent movement between newly discovered populations of threatened Eastern Massasauga rattlesnakes (Sistrurus catenatus) using data from 2996 RAD-based genetic loci. Our pedigree analyses found no evidence for contemporary connectivity between five genetic groups, but, as validation of our approach, showed high dispersal rates between sample sites within a single genetic cluster. We conclude that these five genetic clusters of Eastern Massasauga rattlesnakes have small numbers of resident snakes and are demographically isolated conservation units. More broadly, our methodology can be widely applied to determine contemporary connectivity rates, independent of bias from shared genetic similarity due to ancestry that impacts other approaches.

Robustness of close-kin mark-recapture estimators to dispersal limitation and spatially varying sampling probabilities

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method for estimating abundance and vital rates from kinship relationships observed in genetic samples. CKMR inference only requires animals to be sampled once (e.g., lethally), potentially widening the scope of population-level inference relative to traditional monitoring programs.One assumption of CKMR is that, conditional on individual covariates like age, all animals have an equal probability of being sampled. However, if genetic data are collected opportunistically (e.g., via hunters or fishers), there is potential for spatial variation in sampling probability that can bias CKMR estimators, particularly when genetically related individuals stay in close proximity.We used individual-based simulation to investigate consequences of dispersal limitation and spatially biased sampling on performance of naive (nonspatial) CKMR estimators of abundance, fecundity, and adult survival. Population dynamics approximated that of a long-lived mammal species subject to lethal sampling.Naive CKMR abundance estimators were relatively unbiased when dispersal was unconstrained (i.e., complete mixing) or when sampling was random or subject to moderate levels of spatial variation. When dispersal was limited, extreme variation in spatial sampling probabilities negatively biased abundance estimates. Reproductive schedules and survival were well estimated, except for survival when adults could emigrate out of the sampled area. Incomplete mixing was readily detected using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests.Although CKMR appears promising for estimating abundance and vital rates with opportunistically collected genetic data, care is needed when dispersal limitation is coupled with spatially biased sampling. Fortunately, incomplete mixing is easily detected with adequate sample sizes. In principle, it is possible to devise and fit spatially explicit CKMR models to avoid bias under dispersal limitation, but development of such models necessitates additional complexity (and possibly additional data). We suggest using simulation studies to examine potential bias and precision of proposed modeling approaches prior to implementing a CKMR program.

Pollination effectiveness in a generalist plant: adding the genetic component

The pollination effectiveness of a flower visitor has traditionally been measured as the product of a quantity component that depends on the frequency of interaction and a quality component that measures the per-visit effects on plant reproduction. We propose that this could be complemented with a genetic component informing about each pollinator's contribution to the genetic diversity and composition of the plant progeny. We measured the quantity and quality components of effectiveness of most pollinator functional groups of the generalist herb Erysimum mediohispanicum. We used 10 microsatellite markers to calculate the genetic component as the diversity of sires among siblings and included it into the calculation of the pollination effectiveness. Functional groups varied in the quantity and quality components, which were shown to be decoupled. Functional groups also differed in the genetic component. This component changed the estimates of pollination effectiveness, increasing the differences between some functional groups and modifying the pollination effectiveness landscape. We demonstrate that including the genetic component in the calculation of the pollination effectiveness may allow a more complete quantification of the contribution of each pollinator to the reproductive success of a plant, providing information on its mating patterns and long-term fitness.

Genetic Evidence of Contemporary Dispersal of the Intermediate Snail Host of Schistosoma japonicum: Movement of an NTD Host Is Facilitated by Land Use and Landscape Connectivity

BACKGROUND

While the dispersal of hosts and vectors-through active or passive movement-is known to facilitate the spread and re-emergence of certain infectious diseases, little is known about the movement ecology of Oncomelania spp., intermediate snail host of the parasite Schistosoma japonicum, and its consequences for the spread of schistosomiasis in East and Southeast Asia. In China, despite intense control programs aimed at preventing schistosomiasis transmission, there is evidence in recent years of re-emergence and persistence of infection in some areas, as well as an increase in the spatial extent of the snail host. A quantitative understanding of the dispersal characteristics of the intermediate host can provide new insights into the spatial dynamics of transmission, and can assist public health officials in limiting the geographic spread of infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni snails (n = 833) were sampled from 29 sites in Sichuan, China, genotyped, and analyzed using Bayesian assignment to estimate the rate of recent snail migration across sites. Landscape connectivity between each site pair was estimated using the geographic distance distributions derived from nine environmental models: Euclidean, topography, incline, wetness, land use, watershed, stream use, streams and channels, and stream velocity. Among sites, 14.4% to 32.8% of sampled snails were identified as recent migrants, with 20 sites comprising >20% migrants. Migration rates were generally low between sites, but at 8 sites, over 10% of the overall host population originated from one proximal site. Greater landscape connectivity was significantly associated with increased odds of migration, with the minimum path distance (as opposed to median or first quartile) emerging as the strongest predictor across all environmental models. Models accounting for land use explained the largest proportion of the variance in migration rates between sites. A greater number of irrigation channels leading into a site was associated with an increase in the site's propensity to both attract and retain snails.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings have important implications for controlling the geographic spread of schistosomiasis in China, through improved understanding of the dispersal capacity of the parasite's intermediate host.

Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 2. Separating the relative effects of gene flow and genetic drift

Studying wild pathogen populations in natural ecosystems offers the opportunity to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of biotic diseases in crops and to enhance pest control strategies. We used simulations and genetic markers to investigate the spatial and temporal population genetic structure of wild populations of the beet cyst nematode Heterodera schachtii on a wild host plant species, the sea beet (Beta vulgaris spp. maritima), the wild ancestor of cultivated beets. Our analysis of the variation of eight microsatellite loci across four study sites showed that (i) wild H. schachtii populations displayed fine-scaled genetic structure with no evidence of substantial levels of gene flow beyond the scale of the host plant, and comparisons with simulations indicated that (ii) genetic drift substantially affected the residual signals of isolation-by-distance processes, leading to departures from migration-drift equilibrium. In contrast to what can be suspected for (crop) field populations, this showed that wild cyst nematodes have very low dispersal capabilities and are strongly disconnected from each other. Our results provide some key elements for designing pest control strategies, such as decreasing passive dispersal events to limit the spread of virulence among field nematode populations.

The compensatory potential of increased immigration following intensive American mink population control is diluted by male-biased dispersal

Attempts to mitigate the impact of invasive species on native ecosystems increasingly target large land masses where control, rather than eradication, is the management objective. Depressing numbers of invasive species to a level where their impact on native biodiversity is tolerable requires overcoming the impact of compensatory immigration from non-controlled portions of the landscape. Because of the expected scale-dependency of dispersal, the overall size of invasive species management areas relative to the dispersal ability of the controlled species will determine the size of any effectively conserved core area unaffected by immigration from surrounding areas. However, when dispersal is male-biased, as in many mammalian invasive carnivores, males may be overrepresented amongst immigrants, reducing the potential growth rate of invasive species populations in re-invaded areas. Using data collected from a project that gradually imposed spatially comprehensive control on invasive American mink (Neovison vison) over a 10,000 km² area of NE Scotland, we show that mink captures were reduced to almost zero in 3 years, whilst there was a threefold increase in the proportion of male immigrants. Dispersal was often long distance and linking adjacent river catchments, asymptoting at 38 and 31 km for males and females respectively. Breeding and dispersal were spatially heterogeneous, with 40 % of river sections accounting for most captures of juvenile (85 %), adult female (65 %) and immigrant (57 %) mink. Concentrating control effort on such areas, so as to turn them into “attractive dispersal sinks” could make a disproportionate contribution to the management of recurrent re-invasion of mainland invasive species management areas.

How Well Do Molecular and Pedigree Relatedness Correspond, in Populations with Diverse Mating Systems, and Various Types and Quantities of Molecular and Demographic Data?

Kinship analyses are important pillars of ecological and conservation genetic studies with potentially far-reaching implications. There is a need for power analyses that address a range of possible relationships. Nevertheless, such analyses are rarely applied, and studies that use genetic-data-based-kinship inference often ignore the influence of intrinsic population characteristics. We investigated 11 questions regarding the correct classification rate of dyads to relatedness categories (relatedness category assignments; RCA) using an individual-based model with realistic life history parameters. We investigated the effects of the number of genetic markers; marker type (microsatellite, single nucleotide polymorphism SNP, or both); minor allele frequency; typing error; mating system; and the number of overlapping generations under different demographic conditions. We found that (i) an increasing number of genetic markers increased the correct classification rate of the RCA so that up to >80% first cousins can be correctly assigned; (ii) the minimum number of genetic markers required for assignments with 80 and 95% correct classifications differed between relatedness categories, mating systems, and the number of overlapping generations; (iii) the correct classification rate was improved by adding additional relatedness categories and age and mitochondrial DNA data; and (iv) a combination of microsatellite and single-nucleotide polymorphism data increased the correct classification rate if <800 SNP loci were available. This study shows how intrinsic population characteristics, such as mating system and the number of overlapping generations, life history traits, and genetic marker characteristics, can influence the correct classification rate of an RCA study. Therefore, species-specific power analyses are essential for empirical studies.