Comparison of risk factors and outcome of patients with and without COVID ‐19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis from Pakistan: A case‐control study

Al Maslamani MA, Mahmoud A. Hashim S, Ittaman AV, Wadi Al Ramahi J, Gergely Szabo B, Konopnicki D, Baskol Elik D, Lakatos B, Sipahi OR, Khedr R, Jalal S, Pshenichnaya N, Magdalena DI, El-Kholy A, Khan EA, Alkan S, Hakamifard A, Sincan G, Esmaoglu A, Makek MJ, Gurbuz E, Liskova A, Albayrak A, Stebel R, Unver Ulusoy T, Ripon RK, Moroti R, Dascalu C, Rashid N, Cortegiani A, Bahadir Z, Erdem H. Factors affecting mortality in COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis: An international ID-IRI study

Background

This study aimed to identify factors that influence the mortality rate of patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA).

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, data from 23 centers across 15 countries, spanning the period of March 2020 to December 2021, were retrospectively collected. The study population comprised patients who developed invasive pulmonary aspergillosis while being treated for COVID-19 in the intensive care unit. Cox regression and decision tree analyses were used to identify factors associated with mortality in patients with CAPA.

Results

A total of 162 patients (males, 65.4 %; median age: 64 [25th-75th: 54.0-73.8] years) were included in the study, of whom 113 died during the 90-day follow-up period. The median duration from CAPA diagnosis to death was 12 (25th-75th: 7-19) days. In the multivariable Cox regression model, an age of ≥65 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.05, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-3.07), requiring vasopressor therapy at the time of CAPA diagnosis (HR: 1.80, 95 % CI: 1.17-2.76), and receiving renal replacement therapy at the time of CAPA diagnosis (HR: 2.27, 95 % CI: 1.35-3.82) were identified as predictors of mortality. Decision tree analysis revealed that patients with CAPA aged ≥65 years who received corticosteroid treatment for COVID-19 displayed higher mortality rates (estimated rate: 1.6, observed in 46 % of patients).

Conclusion

This study concluded that elderly patients with CAPA who receive corticosteroids are at a significantly higher risk of mortality, particularly if they experience multiorgan failure.

Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19-Associated Invasive Fungal Infections Among Critically Ill Intubated Patients: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background

An association between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated invasive fungal infections (CAIFIs) and high mortality among intubated patients has been suggested in previous research. However, some of the current evidence was derived from small case series and multicenter studies conducted during different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the incidence of CAIFIs and their associated mortality using a large, multicenter COVID-19 database built throughout the pandemic.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) database collected from 76 medical centers in the United States between January 2020 and August 2022. Patients were 18 years or older and intubated after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The primary outcomes were incidence and all-cause mortality at 90 days. To assess all-cause mortality, we fitted Cox proportional hazard models after adjusting for confounders via inverse probability weighting.

Results

Out of the 4 916 229 patients with COVID-19 diagnosed during the study period, 68 383 (1.4%) met our cohort definition. The overall incidence of CAIFI was 2.80% (n = 1934/68 383). Aspergillus (48.2%; n = 933/1934) and Candida (41.0%; n = 793/1934) were the most common causative organisms. The incidence of CAIFIs associated with Aspergillus among patients who underwent BAL was 6.2% (n = 83/1328). Following inverse probability weighting, CAIFIs caused by Aspergillus (hazard ratio [HR], 2.0; 95% CI, 1.8-2.2) and Candida (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.5-1.9) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Systemic antifungals reduced mortality in 17% of patients with CAIFI with Aspergillus and 24% of patients with CAIFI with Candida.

Conclusions

The incidence of CAIFI was modest but associated with higher 90-day all-cause mortality among intubated patients. Systemic antifungals modified mortality.

A hybrid modeling framework for generalizable and interpretable predictions of ICU mortality across multiple hospitals

The development of reliable mortality risk stratification models is an active research area in computational healthcare. Mortality risk stratification provides a standard to assist physicians in evaluating a patient's condition or prognosis objectively. Particular interest lies in methods that are transparent to clinical interpretation and that retain predictive power once validated across diverse datasets they were not trained on. This study addresses the challenge of consolidating numerous ICD codes for predictive modeling of ICU mortality, employing a hybrid modeling approach that integrates mechanistic, clinical knowledge with mathematical and machine learning models . A tree-structured network connecting independent modules that carry clinical meaning is implemented for interpretability. Our training strategy utilizes graph-theoretic methods for data analysis, aiming to identify the functions of individual black-box modules within the tree-structured network by harnessing solutions from specific max-cut problems. The trained model is then validated on external datasets from different hospitals, demonstrating successful generalization capabilities, particularly in binary-feature datasets where label assessment involves extrapolation.

Risk factors for COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) has been reported to be an emerging and potentially fatal complication of severe COVID-19. However, risk factors for CAPA have not been systematically addressed to date.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis to identify factors associated with CAPA, we comprehensively searched five medical databases: Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid Embase; the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; and the WHO COVID-19 Database. All case-control and cohort studies in adults (aged >18 years) that described at least six cases of CAPA and evaluated any risk factors for CAPA, published from Dec 1, 2019, to July 27, 2023, were screened and assessed for inclusion. Only studies with a control population of COVID-19-positive individuals without aspergillosis were included. Two reviewers independently screened search results and extracted outcome data as summary estimates from eligible studies. The primary outcome was to identify the factors associated with CAPA. Meta-analysis was done with random-effects models, with use of the Mantel-Haenszel method to assess dichotomous outcomes as potential risk factors, or the inverse variance method to assess continuous variables for potential association with CAPA. Publication bias was assessed with funnel plots for factors associated with CAPA. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022334405.

FINDINGS

Of 3561 records identified, 27 articles were included in the meta-analysis. 6848 patients with COVID-19 were included, of whom 1324 (19·3%) were diagnosed with CAPA. Diagnosis rates of CAPA ranged from 2·5% (14 of 566 patients) to 47·2% (58 of 123). We identified eight risk factors for CAPA. These factors included pre-existing comorbidities of chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 2·70 [95% CI 1·21-6·04], p=0·02; I2=53%), haematological malignancies (OR 2·47 [1·27-4·83], p=0·008; I2=50%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 2·00 [1·42-2·83], p<0·0001; I2=26%), and cerebrovascular disease (OR 1·31 [1·01-1·71], p=0·05; I2=46%). Use of invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 2·83; 95% CI 1·88-4·24; p<0·0001; I2=69%), use of renal replacement therapy (OR 2·26 [1·76-2·90], p<0·0001; I2=14%), treatment of COVID-19 with interleukin-6 inhibitors (OR 2·88 [1·52-5·43], p=0·001; I2=89%), and treatment of COVID-19 with corticosteroids (OR 1·88 [1·28-2·77], p=0·001; I2=66%) were also associated with CAPA. Patients with CAPA were typically older than those without CAPA (mean age 66·6 years [SD 3·6] vs 63·5 years [5·3]; mean difference 2·90 [1·48-4·33], p<0·0001; I2=86%). The duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with CAPA was longer than in those without CAPA (n=7 studies; mean duration 19·3 days [8·9] vs 13·5 days [6·8]; mean difference 5·53 days [1·30-9·77], p=0·01; I2=88%). In post-hoc analysis, patients with CAPA had higher all-cause mortality than those without CAPA (n=20 studies; OR 2·65 [2·04-3·45], p<0·0001; I2=51%).

INTERPRETATION

The identified risk factors for CAPA could eventually be addressed with targeted antifungal prophylaxis in patients with severe COVID-19.

FUNDING

None.

Outcomes of Patients with COVID-19 and Fungal Coinfections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Study

Background & Objective

Fungal co-infections increase the incidence and mortality of viral respiratory tract infections. This study systematically reviews and conducts a meta-analysis to evaluate the prevalence of COVID-19 patients with fungal coinfections. The aim is to provide a concise overview of the impact of these infections on patient outcomes especially association with risk of mortality, informing future research and optimizing patient management strategies.

Methods

To identify relevant studies on COVID-19 patients, we conducted a systematic search of databases from the beginning of the year until July 2023, including fungal co-infections, mortality, and sequelae. Eligibility criteria were developed using the PICO framework, and data extraction was carried out separately by two authors using standard techniques. Statistical analysis was performed using the correlation model and differences between studies were evaluated using the I2 test. R and RStudio were used for statistical analysis and visualization.

Results

We initially identified 6,764 studies, and after checking for equivalence and consistency, 41 studies were included in the final analysis. The overall COVID-19 odds ratio for people who died from fungal infections was 2.65, indicating that patients infected with both COVID-19 and fungal infections had a higher risk of death compared to patients with COVID-19 alone. Specifically, COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) has a higher odds ratio of 3.36, while COVID-19-associated candidiasis (CAC) has an odds ratio of 1.84, and both are much more associated with death. However, coinfection of the fungus with other fungal species did not show a significant difference in the risk of mortality.

Conclusion

This study identified CAPA and CAC as the most common infections acquired in healthcare settings. Fungal coinfections may be associated with an increased risk of death in COVID-19 patients.