Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk

The underexposed nature-based solutions: A critical state-of-art review on drought mitigation

Droughts are the most expensive climate disasters as they leave long-term and chronic impacts on the ecosystem, agriculture, and human society. The intensity, frequency, and duration of drought events have increased over the years and are expected to worsen in the future on a regional and planetary/global scale. Nature-based solutions (NBS) such as wetland and floodplain restorations, green infrastructures, rainwater harvesting, etc., are highlighted as effective solutions to cope with the future impacts of these events. While the role of NBS in coping with the impacts of other disasters, such as floods, has been extensively studied, there has been a lack of comprehensive review of NBS targeting drought. The following paper provides a unique critical state-of-the-art literature review of individual drought-related NBS around the world, in Europe, and particularly in Belgium, and assesses the critical differences between the NBS applied globally and in Flanders. An extensive literature review was conducted to systematically analyze NBS, listing the type, the location, the status of the implementation, and the possible recommendations proposed to optimize future NBS applications. Finally, a comparison is made between small- and large-scale applications of NBS. By analyzing all these aspects, especially the level of effectiveness and recommendations, insight was gained into the future potential of NBS and possible improvements. The research indicated a lack of scientific publications, especially in Belgium. Hence, grey literature was also included in the literature review. Only four papers included a quantitative assessment regarding the effectiveness of drought on a global level, all stating a positive impact on groundwater recharge. In contrast, at regional and country levels, the performance of NBS was not quantified. The number of large-scale implementations is low, where landscape- or watershed-scale holistic approaches to drought mitigation are still scarce. Some successfully implemented projects are only very local and have a long realization time, two aspects that limit achieving visible impact at a larger scale. Among the many NBS, wetlands are recognized as highly effective in coping with drought but are still degraded or lost despite their significant restoration potential. A common effectiveness evaluation framework shall be followed, which gives policymakers a clear view of the different NBS investment options. Furthermore, a more collaborative approach is recommended globally, including different stakeholder groups, with specific attention to the local communities. To conclude, future research should increase the evidence base and implementation of drought-mitigating NBS.

Seed Germination and Seedling Growth Influenced by Genetic Features and Drought Tolerance in a Critically Endangered Maple

Understanding the adaptation of plant species will help us develop effective breeding programs, guide the collection of germplasm, and improve the success of population restoration projects for threatened species. Genetic features correlate with species adaptation. Acer yangbiense is a critically endangered plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP). However, no information was available on its seed germination and seedling growth in populations with different genetic characteristics. In this study, we investigated seed germination and compared the performance of 566 seedlings in 10 maternal half-sib families cultivated in Kunming Botanical Garden. The results showed that A. yangbiense seeds required an average of 44 days to start germinating, with a 50% germination rate estimated to take about 47-76 days, indicating slow and irregular germination. There is a trade-off between the growth and survival in A. yangbiense seedlings, with fast growth coming at the cost of low survival. Groups that were able to recover from a recent bottleneck consistently had higher relative growth rates. High genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding are likely to be responsible for their improved survival during drought conditions and rapid growth under optimal environmental conditions. Our results suggest that maternal genetic traits might be used as indicators for conservation and population restoration. These findings provide us with new information that could be applied to support ex situ conservation and reintroduction of threatened species.

Population decline in a Pleistocene refugium: Stepwise, drought-related dieback of a South Australian eucalypt

Refugia can facilitate the persistence of species under long-term environmental change, but it is not clear if Pleistocene refugia will remain functional as anthropogenic climate change progresses. Dieback in populations restricted to refugia therefore raises concerns about their long-term persistence. Using repeat field surveys, we investigate dieback in an isolated population of Eucalyptus macrorhyncha during two droughts and discuss prospects for its continued persistence in a Pleistocene refugium. We first confirm that the Clare Valley in South Australia has constituted a long-term refugium for the species, with the population being genetically highly distinct from other conspecific populations. However, the population lost >40 % of individuals and biomass through the droughts, with mortality being just below 20 % after the Millennium Drought (2000-2009) and almost 25 % after the Big Dry (2017-2019). The best predictors of mortality differed after each drought. While north-facing aspect of a sampling location was significant positive predictor after both droughts, biomass density and slope were significant negative predictors only after the Millennium Drought, and distance to the north-west corner of the population, which intercepts hot, dry winds, was a significant positive predictor after the Big Dry only. This suggests that more marginal sites with low biomass and sites located on flat plateaus were more vulnerable initially, but that heat-stress was an important driver of dieback during the Big Dry. Therefore, the causative drivers of dieback may change during population decline. Regeneration occurred predominantly on southern and eastern aspects, which would receive the least solar radiation. While this refugial population is experiencing severe decline, some gullies with lower solar radiation appear to support relatively healthy, regenerating stands of red stringybark, providing hope for persistence in small pockets. Monitoring and managing these pockets during future droughts will be essential to ensure the persistence of this isolated and genetically unique population.