Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

Diagnosing viral encephalitis and emerging concepts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review offers a contemporary clinical approach to the diagnosis of viral encephalitis and discusses recent advances in the field. The neurologic effects of coronaviruses, including COVID-19, as well as management of encephalitis are not covered in this review.

RECENT FINDINGS

The diagnostic tools for evaluating patients with viral encephalitis are evolving quickly. Multiplex PCR panels are now in widespread use and allow for rapid pathogen detection and potentially reduce empiric antimicrobial exposure in certain patients, while metagenomic next-generation sequencing holds great promise in diagnosing challenging and rarer causes of viral encephalitis. We also review topical and emerging infections pertinent to neuroinfectious disease practice, including emerging arboviruses, monkeypox virus (mpox), and measles.

SUMMARY

Although etiological diagnosis remains challenging in viral encephalitis, recent advances may soon provide the clinician with additional tools. Environmental changes, host factors (such as ubiquitous use of immunosuppression), and societal trends (re-emergence of vaccine preventable diseases) are likely to change the landscape of neurologic infections that are considered and treated in clinical practice.

Phylodynamic and phylogeographic reconstruction of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in Europe: Patterns and determinants

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is among the most devastating diseases affecting the pig industry. Despite vaccines having been available for decades, the remarkable genetic variability of this virus, leading to poor cross-protection, has limited their efficacy, and other measures must be adopted to effectively control the viral circulation. Some recent studies have investigated the factors involved in viral spreading and persistence, at least at the local level. However, despite the topic's relevance, no statistically grounded evidence is currently available evaluating the variables more involved in porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) epidemiological success at a broader scale, such as the European scale. In the present study, an extensive phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed on more than 1000 ORF5 sequences to investigate the history, dynamics and spreading patterns of PRRSV within European borders. Moreover, several potential predictors, representative of swine population features and trade, human population, economy and geographic characteristics, were evaluated through a specifically designed generalized linear model (GLM) to assess their weight on viral migration rate between countries over time. Although pig stock density, mean PRRSV strain genetic diversity, investments in agriculture (including a likely role of vaccination) and farmer education were involved to a certain extent, the major determinant was proven to be by far the live pig trade. Providing a robust depiction of PRRSV European molecular epidemiology patterns and determinants, the present study could contribute to a more rational allocation of limited resources based on an effective prioritization of control measures.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Tick-Borne Pathogens and Diseases in Greece

Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) are recognized as a serious and growing public health epidemic in Europe, and are a cause of major losses in livestock production worldwide. This review is an attempt to present a summary of results from studies conducted over the last century until the end of the year 2020 regarding ticks, tick-borne pathogens, and tick-borne diseases in Greece. We provide an overview of the tick species found in Greece, as well as the most important tick-borne pathogens (viruses, bacteria, protozoa) and corresponding diseases in circulation. We also consider prevalence data, as well as geographic and climatic conditions. Knowledge of past and current situations of TBDs, as well as an awareness of (risk) factors affecting future developments will help to find approaches to integrated tick management as part of the ‘One Health Concept’; it will assist in avoiding the possibility of hotspot disease emergencies and intra- and intercontinental transmission. Increased surveillance in Greece is required to ensure clear and effective policies for TBD control.

Natural disasters and infectious disease in Europe: a literature review to identify cascading risk pathways

Background

Natural disasters are increasing in their frequency and complexity. Understanding how their cascading effects can lead to infectious disease outbreaks is important for developing cross-sectoral preparedness strategies. The review focussed on earthquakes and floods because of their importance in Europe and their potential to elucidate the pathways through which natural disasters can lead to infectious disease outbreaks.

Methods

A systematic literature review complemented by a call for evidence was conducted to identify earthquake or flooding events in Europe associated with potential infectious disease events.

Results

This review included 17 peer-reviewed papers that reported on suspected and confirmed infectious disease outbreaks following earthquakes (4 reports) or flooding (13 reports) in Europe. The majority of reports related to food- and water-borne disease. Eleven studies described the cascading effect of post-disaster outbreaks. The most reported driver of disease outbreaks was heavy rainfall, which led to cross-connections between water and other environmental systems, leading to the contamination of rivers, lakes, springs and water supplies. Exposure to contaminated surface water or floodwater following flooding, exposure to animal excreta and post-disaster living conditions were among other reported drivers of outbreaks.

Conclusions

The cascade effects of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, include outbreaks of infectious disease. The projection that climate change-related extreme weather events will increase in Europe in the coming century highlights the importance of strengthening preparedness planning and measures to mitigate and control outbreaks in post-disaster settings.

The spatiotemporal distribution of historical malaria cases in Sweden: a climatic perspective

Background

Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate–disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749–1859.

Methods

Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (r_p) and Spearman’s rank (r_s) correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate inter-annual relationship between malaria data and long meteorological series. The climate response to larger malaria events was further explored by Superposed Epoch Analysis, and through Geographic Information Systems analysis to map spatial variations of malaria deaths.

Results

The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June–August (r_s = 0.57, p < 0.01) during the 1756–1820 period. Only non-linear patterns can be found in response to precipitation variations. Most malaria hot-spots, during severe malaria years, concentrated in areas around big inland lakes and southern-most Sweden.

Conclusions

Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate–malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.

Imported arboviral infections in New Zealand, 2001 to 2017: A risk factor for local transmission

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Over the last decade and following international trends, cases of mosquito-borne arboviral infections, notably dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika, have increased among travellers arriving in New Zealand, but no locally acquired cases have been identified. Imported cases are characterised and examined to identify trends and features that might assist in reducing transmission risk from travellers.

METHODS

Information on traveller arrivals, notified cases and risk factors for disease acquisition were obtained from national sources. Trends in importation rates, seasonality are described and relationships of notifications with traveller arrivals were examined with a negative binomial regression model.

RESULTS

There was a significant increase in dengue notifications combined with the emergence of Zika and chikungunya. Most notifications were from arrivals in Auckland from Pacific Islands during summer and early autumn.

CONCLUSION/IMPLICATIONS

Overseas travel from New Zealand, particularly to the Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia, involves a risk of arboviral infection. The repeated introduction of arboviruses to New Zealand also increases the risk of local transmission in a country that has vector capable and vector potential mosquitoes, as well as an increasingly suitable climate for new vectors to establish.

Global mobility, travel and migration health: clinical and public health implications for children and families

Exponential growth of the world's population combined with increased travel has dramatically increased the spread of infectious diseases. Although there has been significant focus on migration, the major contributors to the transmission of communicable diseases are travel and tourism not migration. Given that children represent up to 10% of international travellers, it is critical to the health of all age groups to ensure that tailored guidance for children is considered in public health policy and guidelines, and pandemic responses. To further support pandemic preparedness, public health systems need to strengthen ties with communities and health systems. In addition, travel and migration issues need to be included as core competencies in medical education. Ensuring that clinicians who care for children have knowledge of travel and migration health will foster a better health outcome in an increasingly mobile population at risk of emerging infectious diseases.Abbreviations CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DGMQ: CDC Division of Global Migration and Quarantine; EID: emerging infectious diseases; EU: European Union; VFR: visiting friends and relatives; IOM: United Nations International Organization for Migration; LPR: lawful permanent resident; US: United States of America; WHO: World Health Organization.

Tracking infectious diseases in a warming world

Using infectious diseases sensitive to climate as indicators of climate change helps stimulate and inform public health responses, write Kris A Murray and colleagues

Refugee and Migrant Children’s Mental Healthcare: Serving the Voiceless, Invisible, and the Vulnerable Global Citizens

Millions of children are on the run worldwide, with many unaccompanied children and adolescents undertaking risky journeys to flee war, adverse circumstances, and political persecution. The grueling journey and multiple stressors faced by the refugee children, both accompanied and unaccompanied during the pre-migration, migration, and in the country of destination, increase their risk for psychiatric disorders and other medical conditions. Unaccompanied refugee migrant children have higher prevalence of mental health disorders than accompanied refugee peers. Long after reaching the host country, the refugee, migrant, and asylum-seeking juveniles continue to face adversities in the form of acculturation. In assessing medical fitness and healthcare mediations for refugees and migrant children, special consideration should be given to certain areas such as their distinct history, whether they are with their family or separated or unaccompanied, and whether they have been peddled or have been left behind.

Using Big Data to Monitor the Introduction and Spread of Chikungunya, Europe, 2017

With regard to fully harvesting the potential of big data, public health lags behind other fields. To determine this potential, we applied big data (air passenger volume from international areas with active chikungunya transmission, Twitter data, and vectorial capacity estimates of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes) to the 2017 chikungunya outbreaks in Europe to assess the risks for virus transmission, virus importation, and short-range dispersion from the outbreak foci. We found that indicators based on voluminous and velocious data can help identify virus dispersion from outbreak foci and that vector abundance and vectorial capacity estimates can provide information on local climate suitability for mosquitoborne outbreaks. In contrast, more established indicators based on Wikipedia and Google Trends search strings were less timely. We found that a combination of novel and disparate datasets can be used in real time to prevent and control emerging and reemerging infectious diseases.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Unexplored Opportunities: Use of Climate- and Weather-Driven Early Warning Systems to Reduce the Burden of Infectious Diseases

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Weather and climate influence multiple aspects of infectious disease ecology. Creating and applying early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data can identify where and when outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases could occur and can be used by decision makers to allocate resources. Whether an outbreak actually occurs depends heavily on other social, political, and institutional factors.

RECENT FINDINGS

Improving the timing and confidence of seasonal climate forecasting, coupled with knowledge of exposure-response relationships, can identify prior conditions conducive to disease outbreaks weeks to months in advance of outbreaks. This information could then be used by public health professionals to improve surveillance in the most likely areas for threats. Early warning systems are well established for drought and famine. And while weather- and climate-driven early warning systems for certain diseases, such as dengue fever and cholera, are employed in some regions, this area of research is underdeveloped. Early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data provide an opportunity for early detection leading to early action and response to potential pathogen threats, thereby reducing the burden of disease when compared with passive health indicator-based surveillance systems.

Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry

Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.

Systemic resilience to cross-border infectious disease threat events in Europe

Recurrent health emergencies threaten global health security. International Health Regulations (IHR) aim to prevent, detect and respond to such threats, through increase in national public health core capacities, but whether IHR core capacity implementation is necessary and sufficient has been contested. With a longitudinal study we relate changes in national IHR core capacities to changes in cross-border infectious disease threat events (IDTE) between 2010 and 2016, collected through epidemic intelligence at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). By combining all IHR core capacities into one composite measure we found that a 10% increase in the mean of this composite IHR core capacity to be associated with a 19% decrease (p = 0.017) in the incidence of cross-border IDTE in the EU. With respect to specific IHR core capacities, an individual increase in national legislation, policy & financing; coordination and communication with relevant sectors; surveillance; response; preparedness; risk communication; human resource capacity; or laboratory capacity was associated with a significant decrease in cross-border IDTE incidence. In contrast, our analysis showed that IHR core capacities relating to point-of-entry, zoonotic events or food safety were not associated with IDTE in the EU. Due to high internal correlations between core capacities, we conducted a principal component analysis which confirmed a 20% decrease in risk of IDTE for every 10% increase in the core capacity score (95% CI: 0.73, 0.88). Globally (EU excluded), a 10% increase in the mean of all IHR core capacities combined was associated with a 14% decrease (p = 0.077) in cross-border IDTE incidence. We provide quantitative evidence that improvements in IHR core capacities at country-level are associated with fewer cross-border IDTE in the EU, which may also hold true for other parts of the world.

RECENT CHANGES IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN EUROPEAN WILDLIFE

Many infectious diseases originating from, or carried by, wildlife affect wildlife conservation and biodiversity, livestock health, or human health. We provide an update on changes in the epidemiology of 25 selected infectious, wildlife-related diseases in Europe (from 2010-16) that had an impact, or may have a future impact, on the health of wildlife, livestock, and humans. These pathogens were selected based on their: 1) identification in recent Europe-wide projects as important surveillance targets, 2) inclusion in European Union legislation as pathogens requiring obligatory surveillance, 3) presence in recent literature on wildlife-related diseases in Europe since 2010, 4) inclusion in key pathogen lists released by the Office International des Epizooties, 5) identification in conference presentations and informal discussions on a group email list by a European network of wildlife disease scientists from the European Wildlife Disease Association, or 6) identification as pathogens with changes in their epidemiology during 2010-16. The wildlife pathogens or diseases included in this review are: avian influenza virus, seal influenza virus, lagoviruses, rabies virus, bat lyssaviruses, filoviruses, canine distemper virus, morbilliviruses in aquatic mammals, bluetongue virus, West Nile virus, hantaviruses, Schmallenberg virus, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, African swine fever virus, amphibian ranavirus, hepatitis E virus, bovine tuberculosis ( Mycobacterium bovis), tularemia ( Francisella tularensis), brucellosis ( Brucella spp.), salmonellosis ( Salmonella spp.), Coxiella burnetii, chytridiomycosis, Echinococcus multilocularis, Leishmania infantum, and chronic wasting disease. Further work is needed to identify all of the key drivers of disease change and emergence, as they appear to be influencing the incidence and spread of these pathogens in Europe. We present a summary of these recent changes during 2010-16 to discuss possible commonalities and drivers of disease change and to identify directions for future work on wildlife-related diseases in Europe. Many of the pathogens are entering Europe from other continents while others are expanding their ranges inside and beyond Europe. Surveillance for these wildlife-related diseases at a continental scale is therefore important for planet-wide assessment, awareness of, and preparedness for the risks they may pose to wildlife, domestic animal, and human health.

The extensive networks of frequent population mobility in the Samoan Islands and their implications for infectious disease transmission

Population mobility has been demonstrated to contribute to the persistent transmission and global diffusion of epidemics. In the Pacific Islands, population mobility is particularly important for emerging infectious diseases, disease elimination programs, and diseases spread by close contact. The extent of population mobility between American Samoa villages, Samoa districts and other countries was investigated based on travel data collected during community surveys in American Samoa in 2010 and 2014. Within American Samoa, workers commuted daily across the whole of the main island of Tutuila, with work hubs drawing from villages across the island. Of the 670 adult workers surveyed, 37% had traveled overseas in the past year, with 68% of trips to Samoa. Of children aged 8–13 years (n = 337), 57% had traveled overseas, with 55% of trips to Samoa. An extensive network of connections between American Samoa villages and Samoa districts was demonstrated, with most trips lasting one week to one month. Our study showed that populations in the Samoan islands are highly mobile, and quantified the extent and destinations of their travels. Our findings offer insight into the impact of population mobility on the transmission of infectious diseases and data to refine existing models of disease transmission in the Pacific islands.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

BACKGROUND

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known.

METHODS

Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory.

RESULTS

There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall.

CONCLUSION

The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.