Understanding local-scale drivers of biodiversity outcomes in terrestrial protected areas

Trends in habitat quality and habitat degradation in terrestrial protected areas

Protected areas are typically considered a cornerstone of conservation programs and play a fundamental role in protecting natural areas and biodiversity. Human-driven land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes lead to habitat loss and biodiversity loss inside protected areas, impairing their effectiveness. However, the global dynamics of habitat quality and habitat degradation in protected areas remain unclear. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model based on global annual remotely sensed data to examine the spatial and temporal trends in habitat quality and degradation in global terrestrial protected areas. Habitat quality represented the ability of habitats to provide suitable conditions for the persistence of individuals and populations, and habitat degradation represented the impacts on habitats from human-driven LULC changes in the surrounding landscape. Based on a linear mixed-effects modeling method, we also explored the relationship between habitat degradation trends and protected area characteristics, biophysical factors, and socioeconomic factors. Habitat quality declined by 0.005 (0.6%) and habitat degradation increased by 0.002 (11%) from 1992 to 2020 globally, and similar trends occurred even in remote or restrictively managed protected areas. Habitat degradation was attributed primarily to nonirrigated cropland (62%) and urbanization (27%) in 2020. Increases in elevation, gross domestic production per capita, and human population density and decreases in agricultural suitability were associated with accelerated habitat degradation. Our results suggest that human-induced LULC changes have expanded from already-exploited areas into relatively undisturbed areas, and that in wealthy countries in particular, degradation is related to rapid urbanization and increasing demand for agricultural products.

Assessing the impact of three biosphere reserves on the conservation of coastal ecosystems

Biosphere Reserves (BR) manage large territories with diverse natural covers and land uses to preserve biodiversity, promote local development and preserve ecosystems. This study evaluated how their zoning (buffer and core) and policy timeframes (decree period, management plan period, and land planning period) influence four landscape management outcomes: deforestation, natural cover recovery, and anthropic and natural permanence. For three Mexican BR case studies, land use and cover transitions were calculated and compared to contrafactual sites. Observed rates of land cover change were marginal within all three BR zoning and across their policy timeframe (<0.02 % change rate), suggesting that BR effectively promote the permanence of both natural and anthropic covers. Nevertheless, the predicted probability of uncommon deforestation and recovery outcomes at local levels showed that the effect of a BR over its regulated landscape is not spatiotemporally static, contrasting the effect of individual allocation vs a group or network. Poverty, land tenure, agriculture aptitude and distance to markets adds to this dynamic and is modelled and discussed. This study shows that BR zoning schemes and its regulatory sequence influence the rates of land cover change and the predicted probability of landscape management outcomes across space and time.

Human presence and infrastructure impact wildlife nocturnality differently across an assemblage of mammalian species

Wildlife species may shift towards more nocturnal behavior in areas of higher human influence, but it is unclear how consistent this shift might be. We investigated how humans impact large mammal diel activities in a heavily recreated protected area and an adjacent university-managed forest in southwest British Columbia, Canada. We used camera trap detections of humans and wildlife, along with data on land-use infrastructure (e.g., recreation trails and restricted-access roads), in Bayesian regression models to investigate impacts of human disturbance on wildlife nocturnality. We found moderate evidence that black bears (Ursus americanus) were more nocturnal in response to human detections (mean posterior estimate = 0.35, 90% credible interval = 0.04 to 0.65), but no other clear relationships between wildlife nocturnality and human detections. However, we found evidence that coyotes (Canis latrans) (estimates = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.17) were more nocturnal and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) (estimate = -0.87, 95% CI = -1.29 to -0.46) were less nocturnal in areas of higher trail density. We also found that coyotes (estimate = -0.87, 95% CI = -1.29 to -0.46) and cougars (Puma concolor) (estimate = -1.14, 90% CI = -2.16 to -0.12) were less nocturnal in areas of greater road density. Furthermore, coyotes, black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and snowshoe hares were moderately more nocturnal in areas near urban-wildland boundaries (estimates and 90% CIs: coyote = -0.29, -0.55 to -0.04, black-tailed deer = -0.25, -0.45 to -0.04, snowshoe hare = -0.24, -0.46 to -0.01). Our findings imply anthropogenic landscape features may influence medium to large-sized mammal diel activities more than direct human presence. While increased nocturnality may be a promising mechanism for human-wildlife coexistence, shifts in temporal activity can also have negative repercussions for wildlife, warranting further research into the causes and consequences of wildlife responses to increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.

Human impacts on mammals in and around a protected area before, during, and after COVID-19 lockdowns

The dual mandate for many protected areas (PAs) to simultaneously promote recreation and conserve biodiversity may be hampered by negative effects of recreation on wildlife. However, reports of these effects are not consistent, presenting a knowledge gap that hinders evidence-based decision-making. We used camera traps to monitor human activity and terrestrial mammals in Golden Ears Provincial Park and the adjacent University of British Columbia Malcolm Knapp Research Forest near Vancouver, Canada, with the objective of discerning relative effects of various forms of recreation on cougars (Puma concolor), black bears (Ursus americanus), black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus), snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and bobcats (Lynx rufus). Additionally, public closures of the study area associated with the COVD-19 pandemic offered an unprecedented period of human-exclusion through which to explore these effects. Using Bayesian generalized mixed-effects models, we detected negative effects of hikers (mean posterior estimate = -0.58, 95% credible interval [CI] -1.09 to -0.12) on weekly bobcat habitat use and negative effects of motorized vehicles (estimate = -0.28, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.05) on weekly black bear habitat use. We also found increased cougar detection rates in the PA during the COVID-19 closure (estimate = 0.007, 95% CI 0.005 to 0.009), but decreased cougar detection rates (estimate = -0.006, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.003) and increased black-tailed deer detection rates (estimate = 0.014, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.026) upon reopening of the PA. Our results emphasize that effects of human activity on wildlife habitat use and movement may be species- and/or activity-dependent, and that camera traps can be an invaluable tool for monitoring both wildlife and human activity, collecting data even when public access is barred. Further, we encourage PA managers seeking to promote both biodiversity conservation and recreation to explicitly assess trade-offs between these two goals in their PAs.

An Outcome-Oriented, Social–Ecological Framework for Assessing Protected Area Effectiveness

Both the number and the extent of protected areas have grown considerably in recent years, but evaluations of their effectiveness remain partial and are hard to compare across cases. To overcome this situation, first, we suggest reserving the term effectiveness solely for assessing protected area outcomes, to clearly distinguish this from management assessments (e.g., sound planning). Second, we propose a multidimensional conceptual framework, rooted in social–ecological theory, to assess effectiveness along three complementary dimensions: ecological outcomes (e.g., biodiversity), social outcomes (e.g., well-being), and social–ecological interactions (e.g., reduced human pressures). Effectiveness indicators can subsequently be evaluated against contextual and management elements (e.g., design and planning) to shed light on management performance (e.g., cost-effectiveness). We summarize steps to operationalize our framework to foster more holistic effectiveness assessments while improving comparability across protected areas. All of this can ensure that protected areas make real contributions toward conservation and sustainability goals.

A forest loss report card for the world's protected areas

Protected areas are a key tool in the conservation of global biodiversity and carbon stores. We conducted a global test of the degree to which more than 18,000 terrestrial protected areas (totalling 5,293,217 km²) reduce deforestation in relation to unprotected areas. We also derived indices that quantify how well countries' forests are protected, both in terms of forested area protected and effectiveness of protected areas at reducing deforestation, in relation to vertebrate species richness, aboveground forest carbon biomass and background deforestation rates. Overall, protected areas did not eliminate deforestation, but reduced deforestation rates by 41%. Protected area deforestation rates were lowest in small reserves with low background deforestation rates. Critically, we found that after adjusting for effectiveness, only 6.5%-rather than 15.7%-of the world's forests are protected, well below the Aichi Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Target of 17%. We propose that global targets for protected areas should include quantitative goals for effectiveness in addition to spatial extent.

Protected Areas Established by Local Communities through Direct Democracy Encompass Habitat for Species as Effectively as Protected Areas Planned over Large Spatial Scales

Local communities contribute to broader biodiversity protection goals when managing their immediate environment when they establish protected areas. However, their efforts are geographically constrained and often uncoordinated. We compare protected areas established by local communities through the direct democracy process in California, US, to protected areas created and managed by two conservation actors working over larger spatial scales, one private and one public. Despite being geographically constrained to smaller spatial scales, protected areas established by local communities were as effective as those established by larger scale conservation actors at representing different habitat types. However, local ballot protected areas tended to protect more common species. All three protected area networks often performed no better than random in terms of siting protected areas to support narrow range species and rare habitats. Improved accounting of local communities' protection efforts would allow organizations with greater funding flexibility to focus their efforts to increase representation of rarer species and habitats in protected area systems.

A sustainable urban regeneration project to protect biodiversity

The sustainable urban redevelopment project to protect biodiversity was developed to regenerate the external spaces of an ancient rural farmhouse, Villa Framarino, in the regional Natural Park of Lama Balice, a shallow erosive furrow (lama) rich in biodiversity, between two suburbs of the city of Bari (Apulia, Italy) and close to the city airport. This work includes a complex system of activities aimed not only at a spatial revaluation, necessary to relaunch the urban image, but it is accompanied by interventions of a cultural, social, economic, environmental and landscape nature, aimed at increasing the quality of life, in compliance with the principles of sustainability and social participation. One of the means to revitalize a territory subject to redevelopment is the planning of events and activities of socio-cultural value that involve the population to revive the sense of belonging to the territory and the community and at the same time to protect the biodiversity of the urban park of the protected natural area.

A global-level assessment of the effectiveness of protected areas at resisting anthropogenic pressures

One-sixth of the global terrestrial surface now falls within protected areas (PAs), making it essential to understand how far they mitigate the increasing pressures on nature which characterize the Anthropocene. In by far the largest analysis of this question to date and not restricted to forested PAs, we compiled data from 12,315 PAs across 152 countries to investigate their ability to reduce human pressure and how this varies with socioeconomic and management circumstances. While many PAs show positive outcomes, strikingly we find that compared with matched unprotected areas, PAs have on average not reduced a compound index of pressure change over the past 15 y. Moreover, in tropical regions average pressure change from cropland conversion has increased inside PAs even more than in matched unprotected areas. However, our results also confirm previous studies restricted to forest PAs, where pressures are increasing, but less than in counterfactual areas. Our results also show that countries with high national-level development scores have experienced lower rates of pressure increase over the past 15 y within their PAs compared with a matched outside area. Our results caution against the rapid establishment of new PAs without simultaneously addressing the conditions needed to enable their success.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.