The eco-evolutionary risks of not changing seed provenancing practices in changing environments

Sourcing seed from local populations has been the long-standing default for native restoration plantings for numerous eco-evolutionary reasons. However, rapidly changing environments are revealing risks associated with both non-local and local provenancing. As alternative strategies gain interest, we argue to progress seed sourcing discussions towards developing risk-based decision-making that weighs the risks of changing and not changing in a changing environment, transcending historic default positions and local versus non-local debates.

Provenance, genotype, and flooding influence growth and resource acquisition characteristics in a clonal, riparian shrub

PREMISE

Riparian plants can exhibit intraspecific phenotypic variability across the landscape related to temperature and flooding gradients. Phenotypes that vary across a climate gradient are often partly genetically determined and may differ in their response to inundation. Changes to inundation patterns across a climate gradient could thus result in site-specific inundation responses. Phenotypic variability is more often studied in riparian trees, yet riparian shrubs are key elements of riparian systems and may differ from trees in phenotypic variability and environmental responses.

METHODS

We tested whether individuals of a clonal, riparian shrub, Pluchea sericea, collected from provenances spanning a temperature gradient differed in their phenotypes and responses to inundation and to what degree any differences were related to genotype. Plants were subjected to different inundation depths and a subset genotyped. Variables related to growth and resource acquisition were measured and analyzed using hierarchical, multivariate Bayesian linear regressions.

RESULTS

Individuals from different provenances differed in their phenotypes, but not in their response to inundation. Phenotypes were not related to provenance temperature but were partially governed by genotype. Growth was more strongly influenced by inundation, while resource acquisition was more strongly controlled by genotype.

CONCLUSIONS

Growth and resource acquisition responses in a clonal, riparian shrub are affected by changes to inundation and plant demographics in unique ways. Shrubs appear to differ from trees in their responses to environmental change. Understanding environmental effects on shrubs separately from those of trees will be a key part of evaluating impacts of environmental change on riparian ecosystems.

Simulating selection and evolution at the community level using common garden data

A key issue in evolutionary biology is whether selection acting at levels higher than the individual can cause evolutionary change. If it can, then conceptual and empirical studies must consider how selection operates at multiple levels of biological organization. Here, we test the hypothesis that estimates of broad-sense community heritability, H C 2 , can be used to predict the evolutionary response by community-level phenotypes when community-level selection is imposed. Using an approach informed by classic quantitative genetics, we made three predictions. First, when we imposed community-level selection, we expected a significant change in the average phenotype of arthropod communities associated with individual tree genotypes [we imposed selection by favoring high and low NMDS (nonmetric multidimensional scaling) scores that reflected differences in arthropod species richness, abundance and composition]. Second, we expected H C 2 to predict the magnitude of the community-level response. Third, we expected no significant change in average NMDS scores with community-level selection imposed at random. We tested these hypotheses using three years of common garden data for 102 species comprising the arthropod communities, associated with nine clonally replicated Populus angustifolia genotypes. Each of our predictions were met. We conclude that estimates of H C 2 account for the resemblance among communities sharing common ancestry, the persistence of community composition over time, and the outcome of selection when it occurs at the community level. Our results provide a means for exploring how this process leads to large-scale community evolutionary change, and they identify the circumstances in which selection may routinely act at the community level.

Intraspecific Genetic Variation and Species Interactions Contribute to Community Evolution

Evolution has been viewed as occurring primarily through selection among individuals. We present a framework based on multilevel selection for evaluating evolutionary change from individuals to communities, with supporting empirical evidence. Essential to this evaluation is the role that interspecific indirect genetic effects play in shaping community organization, in generating variation among community phenotypes, and in creating community heritability. If communities vary in phenotype, and those phenotypes are heritable and subject to selection at multiple levels, then a community view of evolution must be merged with mainstream evolutionary theory. Rapid environmental change during the Anthropocene will require a better understanding of these evolutionary processes, especially selection acting at the community level, which has the potential to eliminate whole communities while favoring others.

The Net Effect of Functional Traits on Fitness

Generalizing the effect of traits on performance across species may be achievable if traits explain variation in population fitness. However, testing relationships between traits and vital rates to infer effects on fitness can be misleading. Demographic trade-offs can generate variation in vital rates that yield equal population growth rates, thereby obscuring the net effect of traits on fitness. To address this problem, we describe a diversity of approaches to quantify intrinsic growth rates of plant populations, including experiments beyond range boundaries, density-dependent population models built from long-term demographic data, theoretical models, and methods that leverage widely available monitoring data. Linking plant traits directly to intrinsic growth rates is a fundamental step toward rigorous predictions of population dynamics and community assembly.

Specific adaptation to strong competitors can offset the negative effects of population size reductions

Competition plays a crucial role in determining adaptation of species, yet we know little as to how adaptation is affected by the strength of competition. On the one hand, strong competition typically results in population size reductions, which can hamper adaptation owing to a shortage of beneficial mutations; on the other hand, specificity of adaptation to competitors may offset the negative evolutionary consequences of such population size effects. Here, we investigate how competition strength affects population fitness in the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens Our results demonstrate that strong competition constrains adaptation of focal populations, which can be partially explained by population size reductions. However, fitness assays also reveal specific adaptation of focal populations to particular competitors varying in competitive ability. Additionally, this specific adaptation can offset the negative effects of competitor-mediated population size reductions under strong competition. Our study, therefore, highlights the importance of opposing effects of strong competition on species adaptation, which may lead to different outcomes of colonization under intense and relaxed competitive environments in the context of population dispersal.

Genotypic variation in phenological plasticity: Reciprocal common gardens reveal adaptive responses to warmer springs but not to fall frost

Species faced with rapidly shifting environments must be able to move, adapt, or acclimate in order to survive. One mechanism to meet this challenge is phenotypic plasticity: altering phenotype in response to environmental change. Here, we investigated the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in two key phenology traits (fall bud set and spring bud flush) in a widespread riparian tree species, Populus fremontii. Using replicated genotypes from 16 populations from throughout the species' thermal range, and reciprocal common gardens at hot, warm, and cool sites, we identified four major findings: (a) There are significant genetic (G), environmental (E), and GxE components of variation for both traits across three common gardens; (b) The magnitude of phenotypic plasticity is correlated with provenance climate, where trees from hotter, southern populations exhibited up to four times greater plasticity compared to the northern, frost-adapted populations; (c) Phenological mismatches are correlated with higher mortality as the transfer distances between provenance and garden increase; and (d) The relationship between plasticity and survival depends not only on the magnitude and direction of environmental transfer, but also on the type of environmental stress (i.e., heat or freezing), and how particular traits have evolved in response to that stress. Trees transferred to warmer climates generally showed small to moderate shifts in an adaptive direction, a hopeful result for climate change. Trees experiencing cooler climates exhibited large, non-adaptive changes, suggesting smaller transfer distances for assisted migration. This study is especially important as it deconstructs trait responses to environmental cues that are rapidly changing (e.g., temperature and spring onset) and those that are fixed (photoperiod), and that vary across the species' range. Understanding the magnitude and adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity of multiple traits responding to multiple environmental cues is key to guiding restoration management decisions as climate continues to change.