Neutral or non-neutral communities: temporal dynamics provide the answer

Assessing the sensitivity and resistance of communities in a changing environment

We propose that the ecological resilience of communities to permanent changes of the environment can be based on how variation in the overall abundance of individuals affects the number of species. Community sensitivity is defined as the ratio between the rate of change in the log expected number of species and the rate of change in the log expected number of individuals in the community. High community sensitivity means that small changes in the total abundance strongly impact the number of species. Community resistance is the proportional reduction in expected number of individuals that the community can sustain before expecting to lose one species. A small value of community resistance means that the community can only endure a small reduction in abundance before it is expected to lose one species. Based on long-term studies of four bird communities in European deciduous forests at different latitudes large differences were found in the resilience to environmental perturbations. Estimating the variance components of the species abundance distribution revealed how different processes contributed to the community sensitivity and resistance. Species heterogeneity in the population dynamics was the largest component, but its proportion varied among communities. Species-specific response to environmental fluctuations was the second major component of the variation in abundance. Estimates of community sensitivity and resistance based on data only from a single year were in general larger than those based on estimates from longer time series. Thus, our approach can provide rapid and conservative assessment of the resilience of communities to environmental changes also including only short-term data. This study shows that a general ecological mechanism, caused by increased strength of density dependence due to reduction in resource availability, can provide an intuitive measure of community resilience to environmental variation. Our analyses also illustrate the importance of including specific assumptions about how different processes affect community dynamics. For example, if stochastic fluctuations in the environment affect all species in a similar way, the sensitivity and resistance of the community to environmental changes will be different from communities in which all species show independent responses.

Volatility in coral cover erodes niche structure, but not diversity, in reef fish assemblages

The world's coral reefs are experiencing increasing volatility in coral cover, largely because of anthropogenic environmental change, highlighting the need to understand how such volatility will influence the structure and dynamics of reef assemblages. These changes may influence not only richness or evenness but also the temporal stability of species' relative abundances (temporal beta-diversity). Here, we analyzed reef fish assemblage time series from the Great Barrier Reef to show that, overall, 75% of the variance in abundance among species was attributable to persistent differences in species' long-term mean abundances. However, the relative importance of stochastic fluctuations in abundance was higher on reefs that experienced greater volatility in coral cover, whereas it did not vary with drivers of alpha-diversity. These findings imply that increased coral cover volatility decreases temporal stability in relative abundances of fishes, a transformation that is not detectable from static measures of biodiversity.

The Dynamic Hypercube as a Niche Community Model

Different models of community dynamics, such as the MacArthur–Wilson theory of island biogeography and Hubbell’s neutral theory, have given us useful insights into the workings of ecological communities. Here, we develop the niche-hypervolume concept of the community into a powerful model of community dynamics. We describe the community’s size through the volume of the hypercube and the dynamics of the populations in it through the fluctuations of the axes of the niche hypercube on different timescales. While the community’s size remains constant, the relative volumes of the niches within it change continuously, thus allowing the populations of different species to rise and fall in a zero-sum fashion. This dynamic hypercube model reproduces several key patterns in communities: lognormal species abundance distributions, 1/f-noise population abundance, multiscale patterns of extinction debt and logarithmic species-time curves. It also provides a powerful framework to explore significant ideas in ecology, such as the drift of ecological communities into evolutionary time.

An Evolutionary and Ecological Community Model for Distribution of Phenotypes and Abundances among Competing Species

AbstractHere, we propose a theory for the structure of communities of competing species. We include ecologically realistic assumptions, such as density dependence and stochastic fluctuations in the environment, and analyze how evolution caused by r- and K-selection will affect the packing of species in the phenotypic space as well as the species abundance distribution. Species-specific traits have the same matrix G of additive genetic variances and covariances, and evolution of mean traits is affected by fluctuations in population size of all species. In general, the model produces a shape of the distributions of log abundances that is skewed to the left, which is typical of most natural communities. Mean phenotypes of the species in the community are distributed approximately uniformly on the surface of a multidimensional sphere. However, environmental stochasticity generates selection that deviates species slightly from this surface; nonetheless, phenotypic distribution will be different from a random packing of species. This model of community evolution provides a theoretical framework that predicts a relationship between the structure of the phenotypic space and the form of species abundance distributions that can be compared against time series of variation in community structure.

Intraspecific variability in fluctuating environments: mechanisms of impact on species diversity

Recent studies have found considerable trait variations within species. The effect of such intraspecific trait variability (ITV) on the stability, coexistence, and diversity of ecological communities received considerable attention and in many models it was shown to impede coexistence and decrease species diversity. Here we present a numerical study of the effect of genetically inherited ITV on species persistence and diversity in a temporally fluctuating environment. Two mechanisms are identified. First, ITV buffers populations against varying environmental conditions (portfolio effect) and reduces variation in abundances. Second, the interplay between ITV and environmental variations tends to increase the mean fitness of diverse populations. The first mechanism promotes persistence and tends to increase species richness, while the second reduces the chance of a rare species population (which is usually homogeneous) to invade, thus decreasing species richness. We show that for large communities the portfolio effect is dominant, leading to ITV promoting species persistence and richness.

On the proportional abundance of species: Integrating population genetics and community ecology

The frequency of genes in interconnected populations and of species in interconnected communities are affected by similar processes, such as birth, death and immigration. The equilibrium distribution of gene frequencies in structured populations is known since the 1930s, under Wright’s metapopulation model known as the island model. The equivalent distribution for the species frequency (i.e. the species proportional abundance distribution (SPAD)), at the metacommunity level, however, is unknown. In this contribution, we develop a stochastic model to analytically account for this distribution (SPAD). We show that the same as for genes SPAD follows a beta distribution, which provides a good description of empirical data and applies across a continuum of scales. This stochastic model, based upon a diffusion approximation, provides an alternative to neutral models for the species abundance distribution (SAD), which focus on number of individuals instead of proportions, and demonstrate that the relative frequency of genes in local populations and of species within communities follow the same probability law. We hope our contribution will help stimulate the mathematical and conceptual integration of theories in genetics and ecology.