Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an Arctic herbivore

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Hunting for ecological indicators: are large herbivore skeleton measures from harvest data useful proxies for monitoring?

Hunter-collected data and samples are used as indices of population performance, and monitoring programs often take advantage of such data as ecological indicators. Here, we establish the relationships between measures of skeleton size (lower jawbone length and hind-leg length) and autumn carcass mass of slaughtered individuals of known age and sex of the high Arctic and endemic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). We assess these relationships using a long-term monitoring dataset derived from hunted or culled reindeer. The two skeleton measures were generally strongly correlated within age class. Both jaw length (R2 = 0.78) and hind-leg length (R2 = 0.74) represented good proxies of carcass mass. These relationships were primarily due to an age effect (i.e. due to growth) as the skeleton measures reached an asymptotic size at 4–6 years of age. Accordingly, strong positive correlations between skeleton measures and carcass mass were mainly evident at the young age classes (range r [0.45–0.84] for calves and yearlings). For the adults, these relationships weakened due to skeletal growth ceasing in mature animals causing increased variance in mass with age—potentially due to the expected substantial impacts of annual environmental fluctuations. As proxies for carcass mass, skeleton measurements should therefore be limited to young individuals. Although body mass is the ‘gold standard’ in monitoring large herbivores, our results indicate that skeleton measures collected by hunters only provide similar valuable information for young age classes, particularly calves and yearlings. In sum, jaw length and hind-leg length function as proxies identical to body mass when documenting the impacts of changing environmental conditions on important state variables for reindeer and other herbivores inhabiting highly variable environments.

Stress responses to repeated captures in a wild ungulate

While capture-mark-recapture studies provide essential individual-level data in ecology, repeated captures and handling may impact animal welfare and cause scientific bias. Evaluating the consequences of invasive methodologies should be an integral part of any study involving capture of live animals. We investigated short- and long-term stress responses to repeated captures within a winter on the physiology, behaviour, and reproductive success of female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). Short-term responses were evaluated using serum concentrations of glucocorticoids and catecholamines during handling, and post-release recovery times in heart rate and activity levels. Repeated captures were associated with an increase in measured catecholamines and glucocorticoids, except cortisone, and delayed recovery in heart rate but not activity. Four months later, in summer, individuals captured repeatedly in winter exhibited a small increase in behavioural response to human disturbance and had a lower probability of being observed with a calf, compared to animals not captured, or captured only once. Our findings imply that single annual capture events have no significant negative consequences for Svalbard reindeer, but repeated captures within a season may impact offspring survival in the same year. Such unanticipated side effects highlight the importance of addressing multiple indicators of animal responses to repeated captures.

Nonlinear spatial and temporal decomposition provides insight for climate change effects on sub-Arctic herbivore populations

Global temperatures are increasing, affecting timing and availability of vegetation along with relationships between plants and their consumers. We examined the effect of population density, herd body condition in the previous year, elevation, plant productivity and phenology, snow, and winter onset on juvenile body mass in 63 semi-domesticated populations of Rangifer tarandus throughout Norway using spatiotemporal generalized additive models (GAMs) and varying coefficient models (VCMs). Optimal climate windows were calculated at both the regional and national level using a novel nonlinear climate window algorithm optimized for prediction. Spatial and temporal variation in effects of population and environmental predictors were considered using a model including covariates decomposed into spatial, temporal, and residual components. The performance of this decomposed model was compared to spatiotemporal GAMs and VCMs. The decomposed model provided the best fit and lowest prediction errors. A positive effect of herd body condition in the previous year explained most of the deviance in calf body mass, followed by a more complex effect of population density. A negative effect of timing of spring and positive effect of winter onset on juvenile body mass suggested that a snow free season was positive for juvenile body mass growth. Our findings suggest early spring onset and later winter permanent snow cover as reinforcers of early-life conditions which support more robust reindeer populations. Our methodological improvements for climate window analyses and effect size measures for decomposed variables provide important contributions to account for, measure, and interpret nonlinear relationships between climate and animal populations at large scales.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.-Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.

Adult survival in migratory caribou is negatively associated with MHC functional diversity

Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are involved in acquired immunity in vertebrates. Only a few studies have investigated the fitness consequences of MHC gene diversity in wild populations. Here, we looked at the association between annual survival and body mass and MHC-DRB exon 2 (MHC-DRB) genetic diversity, obtained from high-throughput sequencing, in two declining migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds. To disentangle the potential direct and general effects of MHC-DRB genetic diversity, we compared different indices of diversity that were either based on DNA-sequence variation or on physicochemical divergence of the translated peptides, thereby covering a gradient of allelic-to-functional diversity. We found that (1) body mass was not related to MHC-DRB diversity or genotype, and (2) adult survival probability was negatively associated with point accepted mutation distance, a corrected distance that considers the likelihood of each amino acid substitution to be accepted by natural selection. In addition, we found no evidence of fluctuating selection over time on MHC-DRB diversity. We concluded that direct effects were involved in the negative relationship between MHC functional diversity and survival, although the mechanism underlying this result remains unclear. A possible explanation could be that individuals with higher MHC diversity suffer higher costs of immunity (immunopathology). Our results suggest that genetic diversity is not always beneficial even in genes that are likely to be strongly shaped by balancing selection.

The onset in spring and the end in autumn of the thermal and vegetative growing season affect calving time and reproductive success in reindeer

A developing trophic mismatch between the peak of energy demands by reproducing animals and the peak of forage availability has caused many species' reproductive success to decrease. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) is an appealing concept that can be used to assess such fitness consequences. However, concerns have been raised on applying the MMH on capital breeders such as reindeer because the reliance on maternal capita rather than dietary income may mitigate negative effects of changing phenologies. Using a long-term dataset of reindeer calving dates recorded since 1970 in a semidomesticated reindeer population in Finnish Lapland and proxies of plant phenology; we tested the main hypothesis that the time lag between calving date and the plant phenology in autumn when females store nutrient reserves to finance reproduction would lead to consequences on reproductive success, as the time lag with spring conditions would. As predicted, the reproductive success of females of the Kutuharju reindeer population was affected by both the onset of spring green-up and vegetative senescence in autumn as calves were born heavier and with a higher first-summer survival when the onset of the vegetation growth was earlier and the end of the thermal growing season the previous year was earlier as well. Our results demonstrated that longer plant growing seasons might be detrimental to reindeer's reproductive success if a later end is accompanied by a reduced abundance of mushrooms.

Response of barren-ground caribou to advancing spring phenology

Phenological shifts are occurring in many ecosystems around the world. The capacity of species to adapt to changing phenology will be critical to their success under climate change scenarios. Failure to adjust migratory and reproductive timing to keep pace with the earlier onset of spring has led to negative demographic effects for populations of species across a variety of taxa. For caribou, there have been concerns that earlier spring green-up on calving areas might not be matched by earlier migration and parturition, potentially leading to a trophic mismatch with nutritional consequences for parturient and lactating caribou cows. However, there is limited evidence supporting these concerns. Here, we investigate the response of barren-ground caribou to changing spring phenology using data from telemetry and satellite imagery. From 2004 to 2016, we found that the average start of green-up on the calving area advanced by 7.25 days, while the start of migration advanced by 13.64 days, the end of migration advanced by 6.02 days, and the date of peak calving advanced by 9.42 days. Despite the advancing onset of green-up, we found no evidence for the development of a trophic mismatch because the advancing green-up coincided with earlier migration and calving by caribou. Changing snow cover on the late winter and migratory ranges was the most supported driver of advancing migratory behavior. The ability of caribou to adjust the timing of migratory and reproductive behavior in response to changing environmental conditions demonstrates the potential resilience of the species to some aspects of climate change.

Silver spoon effects are constrained under extreme adult environmental conditions

Early-life environmental conditions may generate cohort differences in individual fitness, subsequently affecting population growth rates. Three, nonmutually exclusive hypotheses predict the nature of these fitness differences: (1) silver spoon effects, where individuals born in good conditions perform better across the range of adult environments; (2) the "environmental saturation" hypothesis, where fitness differences only occur in intermediate adult environmental conditions; and (3) the "environmental matching" or "predictive adaptive response" (PAR) hypothesis, where fitness is highest when adult environmental conditions match those experienced in early life. We quantified the context-dependent effect of early-life environment on subsequent reproductive success, survival, and population growth rate (λ) of Svalbard reindeer, and explored how well it was explained by the three hypotheses. We found that good early-life conditions increased reproductive success compared to poor early-life conditions, but only when experiencing intermediate adult environmental conditions. This is the first example of what appears to be both "beneficial" and "detrimental environmental saturation" in a natural system. Despite weak early-life effects on survival, cohorts experiencing good early-life conditions contributed to higher population growth rates, when simulating realistic variation in adult environmental conditions. Our results show how the combination of a highly variable environment and biological constraints on fitness components can suppress silver spoon effects at both extremes of the adult environmental gradient.

Antler growth as a cost of reproduction in female reindeer

The costs of reproduction are important in shaping individual life histories, and hence population dynamics, but the mechanistic pathways of such costs are often unknown. Female reindeer have evolved antlers possibly due to interference competition on winter-feeding grounds. Here, we investigate if variation in antler size explains part of the cost of reproduction in late winter mass of female reindeer. We captured 440 individual Svalbard reindeer a total of 1426 times over 16 years and measured antler size and body mass in late winter, while presence of a 'calf-at-heel' was observed in summer. We found that reproductive females grew smaller antlers and weighed 4.3 kg less than non-reproductive females. Path analyses revealed that 14% of this cost of reproduction in body mass was caused by the reduced antler size. Our study is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that antlers in female Rangifer have evolved due to interference competition and provides evidence for antler growth as a cost of reproduction in females. Antler growth was constrained more by life history events than by variation in the environment, which contrasts markedly with studies on male antlers and horns, and hence increases our understanding of constraints on ornamentation and life history trade-offs.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.