A machine-learning approach for decision support and risk stratification of pediatric perioperative patients based on the APRICOT dataset

Novel Preoperative Risk Stratification Using Digital Phenotyping Applying a Scalable Machine-Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

Classification of perioperative risk is important for patient care, resource allocation, and guiding shared decision-making. Using discriminative features from the electronic health record (EHR), machine-learning algorithms can create digital phenotypes among heterogenous populations, representing distinct patient subpopulations grouped by shared characteristics, from which we can personalize care, anticipate clinical care trajectories, and explore therapies. We hypothesized that digital phenotypes in preoperative settings are associated with postoperative adverse events including in-hospital and 30-day mortality, 30-day surgical redo, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and hospital length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

We identified all laminectomies, colectomies, and thoracic surgeries performed over a 9-year period from a large hospital system. Seventy-seven readily extractable preoperative features were first selected from clinical consensus, including demographics, medical history, and lab results. Three surgery-specific datasets were built and split into derivation and validation cohorts using chronological occurrence. Consensus k -means clustering was performed independently on each derivation cohort, from which phenotypes' characteristics were explored. Cluster assignments were used to train a random forest model to assign patient phenotypes in validation cohorts. We reconducted descriptive analyses on validation cohorts to confirm the similarity of patient characteristics with derivation cohorts, and quantified the association of each phenotype with postoperative adverse events by using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We compared our approach to American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) alone and investigated a combination of our phenotypes with the ASA score.

RESULTS

A total of 7251 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 2770 were held out in a validation dataset based on chronological occurrence. Using segmentation metrics and clinical consensus, 3 distinct phenotypes were created for each surgery. The main features used for segmentation included urgency of the procedure, preoperative LOS, age, and comorbidities. The most relevant characteristics varied for each of the 3 surgeries. Low-risk phenotype alpha was the most common (2039 of 2770, 74%), while high-risk phenotype gamma was the rarest (302 of 2770, 11%). Adverse outcomes progressively increased from phenotypes alpha to gamma, including 30-day mortality (0.3%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively), in-hospital mortality (0.2%, 2.3%, and 7.3%), and prolonged hospital LOS (3.4%, 22.1%, and 25.8%). When combined with the ASA score, digital phenotypes achieved higher AUROC than the ASA score alone (hospital mortality: 0.91 vs 0.84; prolonged hospitalization: 0.80 vs 0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

For 3 frequently performed surgeries, we identified 3 digital phenotypes. The typical profiles of each phenotype were described and could be used to anticipate adverse postoperative events.

Advances in pediatric perioperative care using artificial intelligence

PURPOSE OF THIS REVIEW

This article explores how artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to evaluate risks in pediatric perioperative care. It will also describe potential future applications of AI, such as models for airway device selection, controlling anesthetic depth and nociception during surgery, and contributing to the training of pediatric anesthesia providers.

RECENT FINDINGS

The use of AI in healthcare has increased in recent years, largely due to the accessibility of large datasets, such as those gathered from electronic health records. Although there has been less focus on pediatric anesthesia compared to adult anesthesia, research is on- going, especially for applications focused on risk factor identification for adverse perioperative events. Despite these advances, the lack of formal external validation or feasibility testing results in uncertainty surrounding the clinical applicability of these tools.

SUMMARY

The goal of using AI in pediatric anesthesia is to assist clinicians in providing safe and efficient care. Given that children are a vulnerable population, it is crucial to ensure that both clinicians and families have confidence in the clinical tools used to inform medical decision- making. While not yet a reality, the eventual incorporation of AI-based tools holds great potential to contribute to the safe and efficient care of our patients.