Germination responses to winter warm spells and warming vary widely among woody plants in a temperate forest

Intensifying spatially compound heatwaves: Global implications to crop production and human population

Recent research has provided crucial insights on regional heatwaves, including their causal mechanisms and changes under global warming. However, detailed research on global-scale spatially compound heatwaves (SCHs) (concurrent heatwaves over multiple regions) is lacking. Here, we find statistically significant teleconnections in heatwaves and show that the frequency of global-scale SCHs and their areal extent have increased significantly, which has led to 50 % increase in the population exposed to extreme heat stresses in the two most recent decades. Crop yields were reduced in most of the years of anomalous heatwaves, which often happen during El-Niños. The internal climate variability appears to significantly influence the inter-annual variability of regional and global heatwave extents. Insights gained here are critical in better quantifying heat stress risks inflicted on socioecological systems.

Effects of warming on seed germination of woody species in temperate secondary forests

Seed germination, a critical stage of the plant life cycle providing a link between seeds and seedlings, is commonly temperature-dependent. The global average surface temperature is expected to rise, but little is known about the responses of seed germination of woody plants in temperate forests to warming. In the present study, dried seeds of 23 common woody species in temperate secondary forests were incubated at three temperature sequences without cold stratification and after experiencing cold stratification. We calculated five seed germination indices and the comprehensive membership function value that summarized the above indicators. Compared to the control, +2 and +4 °C treatments without cold stratification shortened germination time by 14% and 16% and increased the germination index by 17% and 26%, respectively. For stratified seeds, +4 °C treatment increased germination percentage by 49%, and +4 and +2 °C treatments increased duration of germination and the germination index, and shortened mean germination time by 69%, 458%, 29% and 68%, 110%, 12%, respectively. The germination of Fraxinus rhynchophylla and Larix kaempferi were most sensitive to warming without and with cold stratification, respectively. Seed germination of shrubs was the least sensitive to warming among functional types. These findings indicate warming (especially extreme warming) will enhance the seedling recruitment of temperate woody species, primarily via shortening the germination time, particularly for seeds that have undergone cold stratification. In addition, shrubs might narrow their distribution range.

Negative effects of winter and spring warming on the regeneration of forest spring geophytes

The climate is changing rapidly, provoking species to shift their ranges poleward and upslope. We currently lack a mechanistic understanding of the effect of warmer temperatures on plants, especially for seasonally distinct patterns. Spring geophytes are emblematic forest plants that have a short aboveground lifecycle in the first half of the year and are thus particularly sensitive to winter and spring warming. We set up a warming experiment with separate and combined winter and spring warming on seedlings of three European spring geophytes: Anemone nemorosa, Hyacinthoides non-scripta and Ornithogalum pyrenaicum. Seedling emergence and plant height were recorded at the end of winter and spring treatment, when also biomass of the root, shoot and storage organ was determined. We found negative effects of combined winter and spring warming on seedling emergence. The weight of the storage organ proved to be the best indicator of seedling performance and was negatively affected by separate winter warming in Anemone and by spring warming in Hyacinthoides. Successful seedling emergence was jeopardized by the absence of a cold period, while seedling performance seemed to be negatively influenced directly by higher temperatures through a phenological shift. Our findings confirm that warmer winter and spring temperatures could hamper regeneration of spring geophytes.

Forest understorey communities respond strongly to light in interaction with forest structure, but not to microclimate warming

Forests harbour large spatiotemporal heterogeneity in canopy structure. This variation drives the microclimate and light availability at the forest floor. So far, we do not know how light availability and sub-canopy temperature interactively mediate the impact of macroclimate warming on understorey communities. We therefore assessed the functional response of understorey plant communities to warming and light addition in a full factorial experiment installed in temperate deciduous forests across Europe along natural microclimate, light and macroclimate gradients. Furthermore, we related these functional responses to the species' life-history syndromes and thermal niches. We found no significant community responses to the warming treatment. The light treatment, however, had a stronger impact on communities, mainly due to responses by fast-colonizing generalists and not by slow-colonizing forest specialists. The forest structure strongly mediated the response to light addition and also had a clear impact on functional traits and total plant cover. The effects of short-term experimental warming were small and suggest a time-lag in the response of understorey species to climate change. Canopy disturbance, for instance due to drought, pests or logging, has a strong and immediate impact and particularly favours generalists in the understorey in structurally complex forests.

Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.

Seasonal Variability of Trends in Regional Hot and Warm Temperature Extremes in Europe

Extremely hot or warm weather over the course of the year may have significant impacts on many aspects of human life, the economy, and the natural environment. Until now a thorough assessment of changes of extreme heat or warm events in Europe was hindered by the number of metrics employed, time periods examined, and most studies being conducted in the summer season only. Here, we employ the Extremity Index (EI) to investigate long-term trends in extremely hot or warm days in Europe over the course of the year, with a special focus on their frequency, spatial extent, and intensity. An extreme temperature event (ETE) is defined as a day with an unusually high temperature for a given location and season, even if such a temperature would not be considered extremely high in an absolute sense. The research is conducted in five spatial domains that together cover a large portion of Europe. The period of the most recent 70 years is considered. In all examined regions, mainly significant increasing trends since 1950 are evident for seasonal EI; therefore, also for ETE frequency, intensity, and spatial range. Yet, every region is characterized by its own event pattern, and trends across the continent strongly vary geographically and seasonally. Our study highlights that examined trends of temperature extremes are accelerating and in the last 40 years the rate of change has been even more than three times greater than in the entire study period. The greatest changes were noted for the summer season in Central Europe and Eastern Europe for the most recent 40-year period.