Risk assessment of multistate progression of breast tumor with state-dependent genetic and environmental covariates

Breast Cancer Growth on Serial MRI: Volume Doubling Time Based on 3-Dimensional Tumor Volume Assessment

BACKGROUND

The volume doubling time (VDT) of breast cancer was most frequently calculated using the two-dimensional (2D) diameter, which is not reliable for irregular tumors. It was rarely investigated using three-dimensional (3D) imaging with tumor volume on serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

PURPOSE

To investigate the VDT of breast cancer using 3D tumor volume assessment on serial breast MRIs.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

SUBJECTS

Sixty women (age at diagnosis: 57 ± 10 years) with breast cancer, assessed by two or more breast MRI examinations. The median interval time was 791 days (range: 70-3654 days).

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3-T, fast spin-echo T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), single-shot echo-planar diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and gradient echo dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging.

ASSESSMENT

Three radiologists independently reviewed the morphological, DWI, and T2WI features of lesions. The whole tumor was segmented to measure the volume on contrast-enhanced images. The exponential growth model was fitted in the 11 patients with at least three MRI examinations. The VDT of breast cancer was calculated using the modified Schwartz equation.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Chi-squared test, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Fleiss kappa coefficients. A P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The exponential growth model was evaluated using the adjusted R2 and root mean square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

The median tumor diameter was 9.7 mm and 15.2 mm on the initial and final MRI, respectively. The median adjusted R2 and RMSE of the 11 exponential models were 0.97 and 15.8, respectively. The median VDT was 540 days (range: 68-2424 days). For invasive ductal carcinoma (N = 33), the median VDT of the non-luminal type was shorter than that of the luminal type (178 days vs. 478 days). On initial MRI, breast cancer manifesting as a focus or mass lesion showed a shorter VDT than that of a non-mass enhancement (NME) lesion (median VDT: 426 days vs. 665 days).

DATA CONCLUSION

A shorter VDT was observed in breast cancer manifesting as focus or mass as compared to an NME lesion.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Estimating Distributions of Breast Cancer Onset and Growth in a Swedish Mammography Screening Cohort

BACKGROUND

In recent years, biologically motivated continuous tumor growth models have been introduced for breast cancer screening data. These provide a novel framework from which mammography screening effectiveness can be studied.

METHODS

We use a newly developed natural history model, which is unique in that it includes a carcinogenesis model for tumor onset, to analyze data from a large Swedish mammography cohort consisting of 65,536 participants, followed for periods of up to 6.5 years. Using patient data on age at diagnosis, tumor size, and mode of detection, as well as screening histories, we estimate distributions of patient's age at onset, (inverse) tumor growth rates, symptomatic detection rates, and screening sensitivities. We also allow the growth rate distribution to depend on the age at onset.

RESULTS

We estimate that by the age of 75, 13.4% of women have experienced onset. On the basis of a model that accounts for the role of mammographic density in screening sensitivity, we estimated median tumor doubling times of 167 days for tumors with onset occurring at age 40, and 207 days for tumors with onset occurring at age 60.

CONCLUSIONS

With breast cancer natural history models and population screening data, we can estimate latent processes of tumor onset, tumor growth, and mammography screening sensitivity. We can also study the relationship between the age at onset and tumor growth rates.

IMPACT

Quantifying the underlying processes of breast cancer progression is important in the era of individualized screening.

Evaluating Clinical Efficacy of Antiviral Therapy for COVID-19: A Surrogate Endpoint Approach

INTRODUCTION

Efficient evaluation with an early surrogate endpoint, taking into account the process of disease evolution, may not only clarify inconsistent or underpowered results but also provide a new insight into the exploration of a new antiviral therapy for treating COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We assessed the dynamics of COVID-19 disease spectrum, commencing from low-risk (no or low oxygen supplement), medium-risk (non-invasive ventilator or high oxygen supplement), and high-risk (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or invasive ventilator) risk state on enrollment, and then the subsequent progression and regression of risk states until discharge or death. The efficacy of antiviral therapy in altering the dynamics was assessed by using the high-risk state as a surrogate endpoint based on the data retrieved from the two-arm Adaptive Covid-19 Treatment Trial.

RESULTS

Using the high-risk state as a surrogate endpoint, remdesivir treatment led to a decrease in the high-risk COVID-19 state by 34.8% (95% CI 26.7-42.0%) for a 14-day period and 29.3% (95% CI 28.8-29.8%) up to 28 days, which were consistent with a statistically significant reduction of death by 30.5% (95% CI 6.6, 50.9%) up to a 28-day period. The estimates of numbers needed to be treated were 100.9 (95% CI 88.1, 115.7) for using the high-risk COVID-19 state as a surrogate endpoint for a 14-day period and 133.3 (95% CI 112.5, 158.0) were required for averting one death from COVID-19 up to 28 days.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate the expedient use of the high-risk COVID-19 disease status as a surrogate endpoint for evaluating the primary outcome of the earliest death.

Assessing efficacy of antiviral therapy for COVID-19 patients: A case study on remdesivir with bayesian synthesis design and multistate analysis

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

A synthesis design and multistate analysis is required for assessing the clinical efficacy of antiviral therapy on dynamics of multistate disease progression and in reducing the mortality and enhancing the recovery of patients with COVID-19. A case study on remdesivir was illustrated for the clinical application of such a novel design and analysis.

METHODS

A Bayesian synthesis design was applied to integrating the empirical evidence on the one-arm compassion study and the two-arm ACTT-1 trial for COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir. A multistate model was developed to model the dynamics of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from three transient states of low, medium-, and high-risk until the two outcomes of recovery and death. The outcome measures for clinical efficacy comprised high-risk state, death, and discharge.

RESULTS

The efficacy of remdesivir in reducing the risk of death and enhancing the odds of recovery were estimated as 31% (95% CI, 18-44%) and 10% (95% CI, 1-18%), respectively. Remdesivir therapy for patients with low-risk state showed the efficacy in reducing subsequent progression to high-risk state and death by 26% (relative rate (RR), 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.93) and 62% (RR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.29-0.48), respectively. Less but still statistically significant efficacy in mortality reduction was noted for the medium- and high-risk patients. Remdesivir treated patients had a significantly shorter period of hospitalization (9.9 days) compared with standard care group (12.9 days).

CONCLUSION

The clinical efficacy of remdesvir therapy in reducing mortality and accelerating discharge has been proved by the Bayesian synthesis design and multistate analysis.

Precision Science on Incidence and Progression of Early-Detected Small Breast Invasive Cancers by Mammographic Features

The aim was to evaluate how the inter-screening interval affected the performance of screening by mammographic appearances. This was a Swedish retrospective screening cohort study with information on screening history and mammography features in two periods (1977-1985 and 1996-2010). The pre-clinical incidence and the mean sojourn time (MST) for small breast cancer allowing for sensitivity by mammographic appearances were estimated. The percentage of interval cancer against background incidence (I/E ratio) was used to assess the performance of mammography screening by different inter-screening intervals. The sensitivity-adjusted MSTs (in years) were heterogeneous with mammographic features, being longer for powdery and crushed stone-like calcifications (4.26, (95% CI, 3.50-5.26)) and stellate masses (3.76, (95% CI, 3.15-4.53)) but shorter for circular masses (2.65, (95% CI, 2.06-3.55)) in 1996-2010. The similar trends, albeit longer MSTs, were also noted in 1977-1985. The I/E ratios for the stellate type were 23% and 32% for biennial and triennial screening, respectively. The corresponding figures were 32% and 43% for the circular type and 21% and 29% for powdery and crushed stone-like calcifications, respectively. Mammography-featured progressions of small invasive breast cancer provides a new insight into personalized quality assurance, surveillance, treatment and therapy of early-detected breast cancer.

Synchronous bilateral breast cancer: a nationwide study on histopathology and etiology

PURPOSE

The aim of the present study was to describe histopathologic characteristics of synchronous bilateral breast cancer (SBBC), and by comparing SBBC to unilateral breast cancer (UBC), identify possible etiological mechanisms of SBBC.

METHODS

Patients with primary SBBC (diagnosed within 4 months) and UBC diagnosed in Denmark between 1999 and 2015 were included. Detailed data on histopathology were retrieved from the Danish Breast Cancer Group database and the Danish Pathology Register. Associations between bilateral disease and the different histopathologic characteristics were evaluated by odds ratios and estimated by multinomial regression models.

RESULTS

1214 patients with SBBC and 59,221 with UBC were included. Patients with SBBC more often had invasive lobular carcinomas (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.13-1.47), a clinically distinct subtype of breast cancer, than UBC patients. Further, they were older than UBC patients, more often had multifocal cancer (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.01-1.26), and a less aggressive subtype than UBC patients. Invasive lobular carcinoma was associated with having multiple tumors in breast tissue-both in the form of bilateral disease and multifocal disease, and this association was independent of laterality. No similar pattern was observed for other tumor characteristics.

CONCLUSION

We identified two etiological mechanisms that could explain some of the occurrence of SBBC. The high proportion of less aggressive carcinomas and higher age of SBBC compared to UBC patients suggests that many are diagnosed at a subclinical stage as slow-growing tumors have a higher probability of simultaneous diagnosis. The high proportion of invasive lobular carcinoma observed in bilateral and multifocal disease, being independent of laterality, suggests that these patients have an increased propensity to malignant tumor formation in breast tissue.

Sampling-based Markov regression model for multistate disease progression: Applications to population-based cancer screening program

To develop personalized screening and surveillance strategies, the information required to superimpose state-specific covariates into the multi-step progression of disease natural history often relies on the entire population-based screening data, which are costly and infeasible particularly when a new biomarker is proposed. Following Prentice's case-cohort concept, a non-standard case-cohort design from a previous study has been adapted for constructing multistate disease natural history with two-stage sampling. Nonetheless, the use of data only from first screens may invoke length-bias and fail to consider the test sensitivity. Therefore, a new sampling-based Markov regression model and its variants are proposed to accommodate additional subsequent follow-up data on various detection modes to construct state-specific covariate-based multistate disease natural history with accuracy and efficiency. Computer simulation algorithms for determining the required sample size and the sampling fraction of each detection mode were developed either through power function or the capacity of screening program. The former is illustrated with breast cancer screening data from which the effect size and the required sample size regarding the effect of BRCA on multistate outcome of breast cancer were estimated. The latter is applied to population-based colorectal cancer screening data to identify the optimal sampling fraction of each detection mode.

Statistical models of tumour onset and growth for modern breast cancer screening cohorts

Historically, multi-state Markov models have been used to study breast cancer incidence and mammography screening effectiveness. In recent years, more biologically motivated continuous tumour growth models have emerged as alternatives. However, a number of challenges remain for these models to make use of the wealth of information available in large mammography cohort data. In particular, methodology is needed to address random left truncation and individual, asynchronous screening. We present a comprehensive continuous random effects model for the natural history of breast cancer. It models the unobservable processes of tumour onset, tumour growth, screening sensitivity, and symptomatic detection. We show how the unknown model parameter values can be jointly estimated using a prospective cohort with diagnostic data on age and tumour size at diagnosis, and individual screening histories. We also present a microsimulation study calibrated to population breast cancer incidence data, and to data on mode of detection and tumour size. We highlight the importance of adjusting for random left truncation, derive tumour doubling time distributions for screen-detected and interval cancers, and present results concerning the relationship between tumour presence time and age at diagnosis.

Breast cancer tumour growth modelling for studying the association of body size with tumour growth rate and symptomatic detection using case-control data

Introduction

A large body size is associated with larger breast cancer tumours at diagnosis. Standard regression models for tumour size at diagnosis are not sufficient for unravelling the mechanisms behind the association.

Methods

Using Swedish case-control data, we identified 1352 postmenopausal women with incident invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 1993 and 1995. We used a novel continuous tumour growth model, which models tumour sizes at diagnosis through three submodels: for tumour growth, time to symptomatic detection, and screening sensitivity. Tumour size at other time points is thought of as a latent variable.

Results

We quantified the relationship between body size with tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. High body mass index and large breast size are, respectively, significantly associated with fast tumour growth rate and delayed time to symptomatic detection (combined P value = 5.0 × 10⁻⁵ and individual P values = 0.089 and 0.022). We also quantified the role of mammographic density in screening sensitivity.

Conclusions

The times at which tumours will be symptomatically detected may vary substantially between women with different breast sizes. The proposed tumour growth model represents a novel and useful approach for quantifying the effects of breast cancer risk factors on tumour growth and detection.