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Dabisch PA, Biryukov J, Beck K, Boydston JA, Sanjak JS, Herzog A, Green B, Williams G, Yeager J, Bohannon JK, Holland B, Miller D, Reese AL, Freeburger D, Miller S, Jenkins T, Rippeon S, Miller J, Clarke D, Manan E, Patty A, Rhodes K, Sweeney T, Winpigler M, Price O, Rodriguez J, Altamura LA, Zimmerman H, Hail AS, Wahl V, Hevey M. Seroconversion and fever are dose-dependent in a nonhuman primate model of inhalational COVID-19. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1009865. [PMID: 34424943 PMCID: PMC8412324 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
While evidence exists supporting the potential for aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the infectious dose by inhalation remains unknown. In the present study, the probability of infection following inhalation of SARS-CoV-2 was dose-dependent in a nonhuman primate model of inhalational COVID-19. The median infectious dose, assessed by seroconversion, was 52 TCID50 (95% CI: 23-363 TCID50), and was significantly lower than the median dose for fever (256 TCID50, 95% CI: 102-603 TCID50), resulting in a group of animals that developed an immune response post-exposure but did not develop fever or other clinical signs of infection. In a subset of these animals, virus was detected in nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs, suggesting that infected animals without signs of disease are able to shed virus and may be infectious, which is consistent with reports of asymptomatic spread in human cases of COVID-19. These results suggest that differences in exposure dose may be a factor influencing disease presentation in humans, and reinforce the importance of public health measures that limit exposure dose, such as social distancing, masking, and increased ventilation. The dose-response data provided by this study are important to inform disease transmission and hazard modeling, and, ultimately, mitigation strategies. Additionally, these data will be useful to inform dose selection in future studies examining the efficacy of therapeutics and vaccines against inhalational COVID-19, and as a baseline in healthy, young adult animals for assessment of the importance of other factors, such as age, comorbidities, and viral variant, on the infectious dose and disease presentation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul A. Dabisch
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Biryukov
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Katie Beck
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jeremy A. Boydston
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jaleal S. Sanjak
- Gryphon Scientific LLC, Takoma Park, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Artemas Herzog
- Censeo Insight, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Brian Green
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Gregory Williams
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - John Yeager
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jordan K. Bohannon
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Brian Holland
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - David Miller
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Amy L. Reese
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Denise Freeburger
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Susan Miller
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Tammy Jenkins
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Sherry Rippeon
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - James Miller
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - David Clarke
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Emmanuel Manan
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Ashley Patty
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Kim Rhodes
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Tina Sweeney
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael Winpigler
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Owen Price
- Applied Research Associates, Arlington, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Jason Rodriguez
- Applied Research Associates, Arlington, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Louis A. Altamura
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Heather Zimmerman
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Alec S. Hail
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Victoria Wahl
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael Hevey
- National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), Operated by Battelle National Biodefense Institute for the US Department of Homeland Security, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America
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Weir MH, Mitchell J, Flynn W, Pope JM. Development of a microbial dose response visualization and modelling application for QMRA modelers and educators. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE : WITH ENVIRONMENT DATA NEWS 2017; 88:74-83. [PMID: 29104445 PMCID: PMC5665384 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Microbial dose response modelling is vital to a well-characterized microbial risk estimate. Dose response modelling is an inherently multidisciplinary field, which collates knowledge and data from disparate scientific fields. This multidisciplinary nature presents a key challenge to the expansion of microbial dose response modelling into new groups of researchers and modelers. This research employs a dose response optimization R code used in 18 peer-reviewed research studies to develop a multi-functional dose response software. The underlying R code performs an optimization of the two primary dose response models using the MLE method and outputs statistical analyses of the fits and bootstrapped uncertainty information for the models. VizDR (Visual Dose Response) was developed to provide microbial dose response modelling capabilities to a larger audience. VizDR is programmed in JavaScript with underlying Python scripts for intercommunication with Rserve. VizDR allows for dose response model visualization and optimization of a user's own experimental data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark H. Weir
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, 426 Cunz Hall, 1841, Neil Ave, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
- Department of Civil Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, College of Engineering, The Ohio State University, 2070 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
- CAMRA Consultants LLC, USA
- Corresponding author. Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, 426 Cunz Hall, 1841, Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. (M.H. Weir)
| | - Jade Mitchell
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, College of Engineering, Michigan State University, 524 S. Shaw Lane, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
- Corresponding author. , (J. Mitchell)
| | - William Flynn
- College of Health Sciences, 540 College Avenue, STAR Health Sciences Complex, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19713, USA
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Gutting BW, Rukhin A, Mackie RS, Marchette D, Thran B. Evaluation of Inhaled Versus Deposited Dose Using the Exponential Dose-Response Model for Inhalational Anthrax in Nonhuman Primate, Rabbit, and Guinea Pig. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2015; 35:811-827. [PMID: 25545587 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The application of the exponential model is extended by the inclusion of new nonhuman primate (NHP), rabbit, and guinea pig dose-lethality data for inhalation anthrax. Because deposition is a critical step in the initiation of inhalation anthrax, inhaled doses may not provide the most accurate cross-species comparison. For this reason, species-specific deposition factors were derived to translate inhaled dose to deposited dose. Four NHP, three rabbit, and two guinea pig data sets were utilized. Results from species-specific pooling analysis suggested all four NHP data sets could be pooled into a single NHP data set, which was also true for the rabbit and guinea pig data sets. The three species-specific pooled data sets could not be combined into a single generic mammalian data set. For inhaled dose, NHPs were the most sensitive (relative lowest LD50) species and rabbits the least. Improved inhaled LD50 s proposed for use in risk assessment are 50,600, 102,600, and 70,800 inhaled spores for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. Lung deposition factors were estimated for each species using published deposition data from Bacillus spore exposures, particle deposition studies, and computer modeling. Deposition was estimated at 22%, 9%, and 30% of the inhaled dose for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. When the inhaled dose was adjusted to reflect deposited dose, the rabbit animal model appears the most sensitive with the guinea pig the least sensitive species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bradford W Gutting
- CBR Concepts and Experimentation Branch (Z21), Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Dahlgren, VA, USA
| | - Andrey Rukhin
- Sensor Fusion Branch (Q33), Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Dahlgren, VA, USA
| | - Ryan S Mackie
- CBR Concepts and Experimentation Branch (Z21), Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Dahlgren, VA, USA
| | - David Marchette
- Sensor Fusion Branch (Q33), Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Dahlgren, VA, USA
| | - Brandolyn Thran
- U.S. Army Public Health Command, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, USA
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