Near-misses and future disaster preparedness

A longitudinal investigation of risk perceptions and adaptation behavior in the US Gulf Coast

Climate change is occurring more rapidly than expected, requiring that people quickly and continually adapt to reduce human suffering. The reality is that climate change-related threats are unpredictable; thus, adaptive behavior must be continually performed even when threat saliency decreases (e.g. time has passed since climate-hazard exposure). Climate change-related threats are also intensifying; thus, new or more adaptive behaviors must be performed over time. Given the need to sustain climate change-related adaptation even when threat saliency decreases, it becomes essential to better understand how the relationship between risk perceptions and adaptation co-evolve over time. In this study, we present results from a probability-based representative sample of 2,774 Texas and Florida residents prospectively surveyed 5 times (2017-2022) in the presence and absence of exposure to tropical cyclones, a climate change-related threat. Distinct trajectories of personal risk perceptions emerged, with higher and more variable risk perceptions among the less educated and those living in Florida. Importantly, as tropical cyclone adaptation behaviors increased, personal risk perceptions decreased over time, particularly in the absence of storms, while future tropical cyclone risk perceptions remained constant. In sum, adapting occurs in response to current risk but may inhibit future action despite increasing future tropical cyclone risks. Our results suggest that programs and policies encouraging proactive adaptation investment may be warranted.

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

The risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. However, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. Individual mitigation actions may drive how a community's resilience evolves under repeated hazards. In this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region's vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the United States as our case study. To do this, we build an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate homeowners' adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. Through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community's vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. In some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region's long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. We find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane-when their memory of the event is the strongest-it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.

Disaster Risk Planning With Fuzzy Goal Programming

The uncertainty in the timing and severity of disaster events makes the long-term planning of mitigation and recovery actions both critical and extremely difficult. Planners often use expected values for hazard occurrences, leaving communities vulnerable to worse-than-usual and even so-called "black swan" events. This research models disasters in terms of their best-case, most-likely, and worst-case damage estimates. These values are then embedded in a fuzzy goal programming model to provide community planners and stakeholders with the ability to strategize for any range of events from best-case to worst-case by adjusting goal weights. Examples are given illustrating the modeling approach, and an analysis is provided to illustrate how planners might use the model as a planning tool.

Agent-Based Models as an Integrating Boundary Object for Interdisciplinary Research

Many of the most complicated and pressing problems in hazards research require the integration of numerous disciplines. The lack of a common knowledge base, however, often prohibits clear communication and interaction among interdisciplinary researchers, sometimes leading to unsuccessful outcomes. Drawing on experience with several projects and collective expertise that spans multiple disciplines, the authors argue that a promising way to enhance participation and enable communication is to have a common model, or boundary object, that can integrate knowledge from different disciplines. The result is that researchers from different disciplines who use different research methods and approaches can work together toward a shared goal. This article offers four requirements for boundary objects that may enhance hazards research. Based on these requirements, agent-based models have the necessary characteristics to be a boundary object. The article concludes by examining both the value of and the challenges from using agent-based models as the boundary object in interdisciplinary projects.

Knowledge of mitigation and attitude of preparedness of vocational health programs students in Jakarta in facing earthquake disasters

Knowledge of earthquake disaster mitigation is part of the preparedness efforts that all communities need, including students of vocational health The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between knowledge of mitigation and attitudes toward disaster preparedness for students in Jakarta. The design of this study was cross-sectional study design with a sample size of 107 regular students from four departments at the Jakarta Ministry of Health Polytechnic I. The average age of the study sample was 19.94 years and most of them were women, who had never attended lecture material and seminars/training related to disasters. This research showed that there was a meaningful relationship between knowledge of mitigation and preparedness in facing earthquake (p=0.01; α=0.05). The results of this study recommend the importance of instilling awareness of mitigation to improve earthquake preparedness.

Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber-Attack Game

This study examines how exploiting biases in probability judgment can enhance deterrence using a fixed allocation of defensive resources. We investigate attacker anchoring heuristics for conjunctive events with missing information to distort attacker estimates of success for targets with equal defensive resources. We designed and conducted a behavioral experiment functioning as an analog cyber attack with multiple targets requiring three stages of attack to successfully acquire a target. Each stage is associated with a probability of successfully attacking a layer of defense, reflecting the allocation of resources for each layer. There are four types of targets that have nearly equal likelihood of being successfully attacked, including one type with equally distributed success probabilities over every layer and three types with success probabilities that are concentrated to be lowest in the first, second, or third layer. Players are incentivized by a payoff system that offers a reward for successfully attacked targets and a penalty for failed attacks. We collected data from a total of 1,600 separate target selections from 80 players and discovered that the target type with the lowest probability of success on the first layer was least preferred among attackers, providing the greatest deterrent. Targets with equally distributed success probabilities across layers were the next least preferred among attackers, indicating greater deterrence for uniform-layered defenses compared to defenses that are concentrated at the inner (second or third) levels. This finding is consistent with both attacker anchoring and ambiguity biases and an interpretation of failed attacks as near misses.

Safety-Specific Leadership, Goal Orientation, and Near-Miss Recognition: The Cross-Level Moderating Effects of Safety Climate

Near-miss recognition is an increasingly important area of research in safety management. Drawing on the self-determination theory, we ask whether and how safety-specific transformational leadership and safety-specific active transactional leadership promote near-miss recognition. We also explore the boundary condition by focusing on the moderating role of safety climate. We analyzed time-lagged data from 370 participants, and found that safety-specific transformational leadership enhances employees' near-miss recognition (by enhancing their learning goal orientation), and that safety-specific active transactional leadership also positively influences employees' near-miss recognition (by stimulating their performance goal orientation). In addition, we show that safety climate strengthens the relationship between safety-specific transactional leadership and employees' performance goal orientation, but does not affect the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' learning goal orientation. We discuss the implications and limitations of the research.

Living Well in Times of Threat: The Importance of Adjustment Processes to Explain Functional Adaptation to Uncertain Security in Expatriates Deployed in the Sudan

The present study investigated expatriate humanitarian aid workers' perceptions and responses to uncertain security while deployed in the Sudan. Interviews conducted in Khartoum (n = 7) and Darfur (n = 17) focused on risk perception, concern for personal security, and strategies used to function well in an insecure environment. Despite a high perceived general risk, as well as broad knowledge and experience with security incidents, participants often expressed low concern. General adjustment processes were drawn on to explain this finding, while different constellations of processes resulted in different patterns of adjustment. Functional adjustment, resulting in adequate risk perception, protective behavior, protection, and low concern, was characterized by a constellation of complementary activation of accommodation and assimilation processes.

The role of risk avoidance and locus of control in workers' near miss experiences: Implications for improving safety management systems

The process industry has made major advancements and is a leader in near-miss safety management, with several validated models and databases to track close call reports. However, organizational efforts to develop safe work procedures and rules do not guarantee that employees will behaviorally comply with them. Assuming that at some point, every safety management system will need to be examined and realigned to help prevent incidents on the job, it is important to understand how personality traits can impact workers' risk-based decisions. Such work has been done in the mining industry due to its characteristically high risks and the results can be gleaned to help the process industry realign goals and values with their workforce. In the current study, researchers cross-sectionally surveyed 1,334 miners from 20 mine sites across the United States, varying in size and commodity. The survey sought to understand how mineworkers' risk avoidance could impact their near miss incidents on the job - a common precursor to lost-time incidents. Multiple regressions showed that as a miner's level of risk avoidance increased by 1 unit in the 6-point response scale, the probability of experiencing a near miss significantly decreased by 30% when adjusting for relevant control variables. Additionally, a significant interaction between risk avoidance and locus of control suggested that the effect of risk avoidance on near misses is enhanced as a miner's locus of control increases. A one-unit increase in locus of control appends the base effect of risk avoidance on near misses with an additional 8% decrease in the probability. Findings are discussed from a near-miss safety management system perspective in terms of methods to foster both risk avoidance and locus of control in an effort to reduce the probability of near misses and lost time at the organizational level within the process industry and other high-hazard industries.

Exploring the Potential Use of Near-Miss Information to Improve Construction Safety Performance

Construction project management usually has a high risk of safety-related accidents. An opportunity to proactively improve safety performance is with near-miss information, which is regarded as free lessons for safety management. The research status and practice; however, presents a lack of comprehensive understanding on what near-miss information means within the context of construction safety management. The objective of this study is to fill in this gap. The main findings enrich the comprehensive understanding of the near-miss definition, the near-miss causation model, and the process of near-miss management. Considering that near-misses are more tacit and obscure than accidents, the process for near-miss management involves eight stages: discovery, reporting, identification, prioritization, causal analysis, solution, dissemination, and evaluation. The first three stages aim to make near-misses explicit. The other five are adopted to better manage near-miss information, compiled in a well-designed near-miss database (NMDB). Finally, a case study was conducted to show how near-miss information can be utilized to assist in construction safety management. The main potential contributions here are twofold. Firstly, corresponding findings provide a knowledge framework of near-miss information for construction safety researchers who can go on to further study near-miss management. Secondly, the proposed framework contributes to the guidance and encouragement of near-miss practices on construction sites.

Explicating Experience: Development of a Valid Scale of Past Hazard Experience for Tornadoes

People's past experiences with a hazard theoretically influence how they approach future risks. Yet, past hazard experience has been conceptualized and measured in wide-ranging, often simplistic, ways, resulting in mixed findings about its relationship with risk perception. This study develops a scale of past hazard experiences, in the context of tornadoes, that is content and construct valid. A conceptual definition was developed, a set of items were created to measure one's most memorable and multiple tornado experiences, and the measures were evaluated through two surveys of the public who reside in tornado-prone areas. Four dimensions emerged of people's most memorable experience, reflecting their awareness of the tornado risk that day, their personalization of the risk, the intrusive impacts on them personally, and impacts experienced vicariously through others. Two dimensions emerged of people's multiple experiences, reflecting common types of communication received and negative emotional responses. These six dimensions are novel in that they capture people's experience across the timeline of a hazard as well as intangible experiences that are both direct and indirect. The six tornado experience dimensions were correlated with tornado risk perceptions measured as cognitive-affective and as perceived probability of consequences. The varied experience-risk perception results suggest that it is important to understand the nuances of these concepts and their relationships. This study provides a foundation for future work to continue explicating past hazard experience, across different risk contexts, and for understanding its effect on risk assessment and responses.

Incident learning in radiation oncology: A review

Incident learning is a key component for maintaining safety and quality in healthcare. Its use is well established and supported by professional society recommendations, regulations and accreditation, and objective evidence. There is an active interest in incident learning systems (ILS) in radiation oncology, with over 40 publications since 2010. This article is intended as a comprehensive topic review of ILS in radiation oncology, including history and summary of existing literature, nomenclature and categorization schemas, operational aspects of ILS at the institutional level including event handling and root cause analysis, and national and international ILS for shared learning. Core principles of patient safety in the context of ILS are discussed, including the systems view of error, culture of safety, and contributing factors such as cognitive bias. Finally, the topics of medical error disclosure and second victim syndrome are discussed. In spite of the rapid progress and understanding of ILS, challenges remain in applying ILS to the radiation oncology context. This comprehensive review may serve as a springboard for further work.

Compliance with recommended protective actions during an H7N9 emergency: a risk perception perspective

This study investigates the factors determining an individual's response to official recommended protective measures, based on the Health Belief Model and the Protective Action Decision Model, to understand the adoption of protective behaviour during an H7N9 (Avian Influenza A) emergency. A public survey involving 1,375 respondents was conducted in Anhui Province, China, during the 2013 H7N9 outbreak to test the research model and hypotheses. The results indicate that protective, stakeholder, and risk perceptions influence positively an individual's willingness to take recommended actions. Protective and stakeholder perceptions also have a positive bearing on lay people's risk perceptions. A stakeholder perception is a vital determinant of a protective perception. More importantly, the effects of protective and stakeholder perceptions on behavioural responses to recommendations are mediated in part by risk perception. These findings can help public health officials to develop messages to encourage members of the population to protect themselves effectively during an influenza crisis.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk.

Categorization of Near-Collision Close Calls Reported to the Aviation Safety Reporting System

Close calls in aviation are frequent occurrences. Many reports have described encounters with unmanned aerial vehicles or conflicts due to increasingly congested airspace. The Aviation Safety Reporting System, developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, contains many close call narratives. However, few theoretical frameworks facilitate analyses of close call reports. This article describes an examination of close calls within the ASRS over a three-year period (2014-2016). The authors analyzed 117 close call reports from the ASRS involving near-midair collisions. Using Bliss’s (2013) taxonomy, the reports were successfully analyzed in terms of category and severity level. Results indicated that nearly half of the close calls occurred during the approach phase of flight. Also, a disproportionate number of close calls were “Un-signaled” and “Event-Driven.” Report frequency was negatively associated with aircraft separation distance. Recommendations include modification of the close call taxonomy to account for events caused by lack of responding.