Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa

Modelling of tuberculosis dynamics incorporating indirect transmission of contaminated environment and infectivity of smear-negative individuals: A case study for Xinjiang, China

Xinjiang has been one of the high incidence areas of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China. Besides being infected by direct contacting with active PTB individuals (direct infection), the susceptible would be infected because of the exposure to the environment contaminated by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (indirect infection). Active PTB individuals include not only the smear-positive PTB (PTB+) but also the smear-negative PTB (PTB-) who are infectious due to their ability to release tiny Mycobacterium tuberculosis particles even in the absence of visible Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum. By taking account of direct/indirect infection and the difference between PTB+ and PTB- individuals in transmission capability, a periodic dynamical PTB transmission model is proposed. The model is fitted to the newly monthly PTB+ and PTB- cases in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2017 by Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Moreover, global sensitivity analysis is constructed to address the uncertainty of some key parameters by using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient methods. Basic reproduction number R0 for PTB transmission in Xinjiang is estimated to be 2.447 (95% CrI:(1.203, 3.844)), indicating that PTB has been prevalent in Xinjiang over the study period. Our results suggest that reducing the direct/indirect transmission rates, early screening, isolating and treating the latent, PTB+ and PTB- individuals, and enhancing the clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the environment could more effectively control PTB transmission in Xinjiang. The model fits the reported PTB data well and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide heuristic support for controlling PTB transmission in Xinjiang.

State estimation for nonlinear state-space transmission models of tuberculosis

Given the high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and the mortality rate associated with the disease, numerous models, such as the Gammaitoni and Nucci (GN) model, were developed to model the risk of transmission. These models typically rely on a quanta generation rate as a measurement of infectivity. Since the quanta generation rate cannot be measured directly, the unique contribution of this work is to develop state estimators to estimate the quanta generation rate from available measurements. To estimate the quanta generation rate, the GN model is adapted into an augmented single-room GN model and a simplified two-room GN model. Both models are shown to be observable, i.e., it is theoretically possible to estimate the quanta generation rate given available measurements. Kalman filters are used to estimate the quanta generation rate. First, a continuous-time extended Kalman filter is used for both adapted models using a simulation and measurement sampling rate of 60 s. Accurate quanta generate rate estimates are achieved in both cases. A more realistic scenario is also considered with a measurement sampling rate of one day. For these estimates, a hybrid extended Kalman filter (HEKF) is used. Accurate quanta generation rate estimates are achieved for the more realistic scenario. Future work could potentially use the HEKFs, the adapted models, and real-time measurements in a control system feedback loop to reduce the transmission of TB in confined spaces such as hospitals.

Covid-19 Pandemic: What Changes for Dentists and Oral Medicine Experts? A Narrative Review and Novel Approaches to Infection Containment

The authors performed a narrative review on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- CoronaVirus-2 ( SARS-CoV-2) and all infectious agents with the primary endpoints to illustrate the most accepted models of safety protocols in dentistry and oral medicine, and to propose an easy view of the problem and a comparison (pre- vs post-COVID19) for the most common dental procedures. The outcome is forecast to help dentists to individuate for a given procedure the differences in terms of safety protocols to avoid infectious contagion (by SARS-CoV-2 and others dangerous agents). An investigation was performed on the online databases Pubmed and Scopus using a combination of free words and Medical Subject Headings (MESH) terms: "dentist" OR "oral health" AND "COVID-19" OR "SARS-CoV-2" OR "coronavirus-19". After a brief excursus on all infectious agents transmittable at the dental chair, the authors described all the personal protective equipment (PPE) actually on the market and their indications, and on the basis of the literature, they compared (before and after COVID-19 onset) the correct safety procedures for each dental practice studied, underlining the danger of underestimating, in general, dental cross-infections. The authors have highlighted the importance of knowing exactly the risk of infections in the dental practice, and to modulate correctly the use of PPE, in order to invest adequate financial resources and to avoid exposing both the dental team and patients to preventable risks.