Assessing the potential spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in wild ungulates: general principles and application to a specific scenario in Thrace

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union: (September 2020 to August 2021)

This report provides a descriptive analysis of the African swine fever (ASF) Genotype II epidemic in the affected Member States in the EU and two neighbouring countries for the period from 1 September 2020 to 31 August 2021. ASF continued to spread in wild boar in the EU, it entered Germany in September 2020, while Belgium became free from ASF in October 2020. No ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs nor cases in wild boar have been reported in Greece since February 2020. In the Baltic States, overall, there has been a declining trend in proportions of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples from wild boar carcasses in the last few years. In the other countries, the proportions of PCR-positive wild boar carcasses remained high, indicating continuing spread of the disease. A systematic literature review revealed that the risk factors most frequently significantly associated with ASF in domestic pigs were pig density, low levels of biosecurity and socio-economic factors. For wild boar, most significant risk factors were related to habitat, socio-economic factors and wild boar management. The effectiveness of different control options in the so-named white zones, areas where wild boar densities have been drastically reduced to avoid further spread of ASF after a new introduction, was assessed with a stochastic model. Important findings were that establishing a white zone is much more challenging when the area of ASF incursion is adjacent to an area where limited control measures are in place. Very stringent wild boar population reduction measures in the white zone are key to success. The white zone needs to be far enough away from the affected core area so that the population can be reduced in time before the disease arrives and the timing of this will depend on the wild boar density and the required population reduction target in the white zone. Finally, establishing a proactive white zone along the demarcation line of an affected area requires higher culling efforts, but has a higher chance of success to stop the spread of the disease than establishing reactive white zones after the disease has already entered in the area.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

Foot and mouth disease in a wide range of wild hosts: a potential constraint in disease control efforts worldwide particularly in disease-endemic settings

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease that affects predominantly cloven-footed animal species within the order Artiodactyla. The potential of the virus to transmit, maintain and circulate itself across a wide range of susceptible hosts, including both domestic and wild ungulates, remains a single major obstacle in an effective eradication of disease worldwide, particularly in disease-endemic settings. Hence, a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics is very much crucial for an efficient control of the disease, particularly at places or regions where wildlife and livestock rearing co-exists. Both OIE and FAO have jointly launched the FMD-control program as FMD-Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) in various disease-endemic developing countries. Nevertheless, the propensity of virus to inter- and intra-species transmission may be a possible constraint in disease control and, hence, its subsequent eradication in such countries. Other than this, cross-species transmission, among domestic and wild ungulates living in close proximities, can undermine the conservation efforts for endangered species. We reviewed and summarized the so-far available information about inter- and intra-species disease transmission, and its impact on wildlife populations to better comprehend disease epidemiology and substantiate efforts for eventual disease eradication across the globe, particularly in settings where the disease is endemic.

The Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease Transmission Posed by Public Access to the Countryside During an Outbreak

During the 2001 UK FMD outbreak, local authorities restricted rural access to try to prevent further disease spread by people and animals, which had major socio-economic consequences for rural communities. This study describes the results of qualitative veterinary risk assessments to assess the likelihood of different recreational activities causing new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease, as part of contingency planning for future outbreaks. For most activities, the likelihood of causing new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease is considered to vary from very low to medium depending on the control zone (which is based on distance to the nearest infected premises), assuming compliance with specified mitigation strategies. The likelihood of new outbreaks associated with hunting, shooting, stalking, and equestrian activities is considered to be greater. There are areas of significant uncertainty associated with data paucity, particularly regarding the likelihood of transmission via fomites. This study provides scientific evidence to underpin refinement of rural access management plans and inform decision-making in future disease outbreaks.

A framework for reviewing livestock disease reporting systems in high-risk areas: assessing performance and perceptions towards foot and mouth disease reporting in the Thrace region of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey

Disease reporting is an essential frontline component of surveillance systems, particularly for detecting incursions of new and emerging diseases. It has the advantages of being comprehensive and continuous, with the potential to reduce the time of disease detection and the extent of consequent spread. A number of exotic diseases, including sheep and goat pox, lumpy skin disease, peste des petits ruminants and foot and mouth disease have historically entered into south-eastern Europe through the Thrace region, which extends across neighbouring areas of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. In this high-risk area, multiple factors can reduce the sensitivity of disease reporting across the diverse production systems and animal health services need robust and effective disease reporting systems. While describing a training exercise designed to provide animal health services of the three countries with the knowledge and skills for conducting comprehensive in-country assessments, we provide an initial evaluation of the sensitivity of foot and mouth disease reporting and identify gaps and constraints in the Thrace region. An expert elicitation approach was used to consult official veterinarians from central and local animal health authorities of the three countries, and scenario trees modelling was applied to analyse the collected data. The reported sensitivity of disease reporting often varied between the central and local veterinary authorities within the three countries. Awareness of clinical disease, of reporting procedures and of biosecurity measures affected the early stages of disease reporting, particularly in the production systems identified at lower reporting sensitivity such as small ruminant's herds, mixed bovine herds and backyard herds. Despite its limitations this training exercise provided an effective framework (a) to develop capacities of the veterinary services in the region and (b) to supply initial evidence for guiding further interventions targeting those sectors and stakeholders at lower reporting sensitivity to reduce risks of disease introduction.

Molecular epidemiology, evolution and phylogeny of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is responsible for one of the most economically important infectious diseases of livestock. The virus spreads very easily and continues to affect many countries (mainly in Africa and Asia). The risks associated with the introduction of FMDV result in major barriers to trade in animals and their products. Seven antigenically distinct forms of the virus are known, called serotypes, but serotype C has not been detected anywhere for many years and may now be extinct. The serotypes have been further divided into topotypes (except for serotype Asia-1 viruses, which comprise a single topotype), genotypes, lineages and sub-lineages, which are usually restricted to specific geographical regions. However, sometimes, trans-regional spread of some strains occurs. Due to the error-prone replication of the RNA genome, the virus continuously evolves and new strains frequently arise (e.g. with modified antigenicity). Using nucleotide sequencing technologies, this rapid evolution of the viral genome can be followed. This allows the tracing of virus transmission pathways within an outbreak of disease if (near) full-length genome sequences can be generated. Furthermore, the movement of distinct virus lineages, from one country to another can be analyzed. Some important examples of the spread of new strains of FMD virus are described.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Relevance of Indirect Transmission for Wildlife Disease Surveillance

Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design, and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host–pathogen system and respective epidemiological modeling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission (IT) through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. The second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e., basic reproductive number R₀) and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host. We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models. We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model predictions underestimated surveillance efforts but overestimated mitigation costs. We discuss parameterization of IT models and related knowledge gaps. We conclude that the explicit incorporation of IT mechanisms in epidemiological modeling may reward by adapting surveillance and mitigation efforts.

Update on the Risk of Introduction of African Swine Fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries

Despite efforts to prevent the appearance and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union, several Member States are now affected (Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia). Disease appearance in 2014 was associated with multiple entrances linked to wild boar movement from endemic areas (EFSA Journal, 8, 2015, 1556), but the risk of new introductions remains high (Gallardo et al., Porcine Health Management, 1, and 21) as ASF continues to be active in endemic countries (Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine). Since 2014, the number of ASF notifications has increased substantially, particularly in wild boar (WB), in parallel with slow but constant geographical advance of the disease. This situation suggests a real risk of further disease spread into other Member States, posing a great threat to pig production in the EU. Following the principles of the risk-based veterinary surveillance, this article applies a methodology developed by De la Torre et al. (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 62, and 272) to assess the relative risk of new introductions of ASF by natural movements of WB according to the current epidemiological situation. This update incorporates the most recent available data and an improved version of the most important risk estimator: an optimized cartographic tool of WB distribution to analyse wild boar suitable habitat. The highest relative risk values were estimated for Slovakia (5) and Romania (5), followed by Finland (4), Czech Republic (3) and Germany (3). Relative risk for Romania and Finland is associated mainly with disease entrance from endemic areas such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where the disease is currently spreading; relative risk for Germany and Czech Republic is associated mainly with the potential progress of the disease through the EU, and relative risk for Slovakia is associated with both pathways. WB habitat is the most important risk estimator, whereas WB density is the least significant, suggesting that WB presence is more relevant than density. These results can provide actionable advice for dealing with risk. They can be directly used to inform risk-based national strategies and identify countries that may need to pay greater attention to surveillance or conduct additional evaluations at the subnational level.